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Budget 2019 analysis fergal o'brien 17 oct 18

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Budget 2019 analysis

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Budget 2019 analysis fergal o'brien 17 oct 18

  1. 1. Budget 2019 Analysis NERI Seminar 17th October 2018
  2. 2. There will be a large fiscal expansion in 2019 • Reduction USC1.7% 2.7% 2.4% 1.3% 0.2% 1.2% 1.6% 1.9% 1.7% -2.7%-2.6% -3.9% -3.0% -2.2% -1.3%-1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 1.5% 0.8% 1.3% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Budget Day Measures as % of Domestic Demand
  3. 3. Strong growth in Corporation Tax Receipts • Reduction USC 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2015 2016 2017 2018 Billion€ Corporation Tax Actual Expected
  4. 4. Health spending continues to exceed forecasts • Reduction USC 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (F) Million€ Overruns in Health Spending
  5. 5. Capital Spending will grow by 24% next year • Reduction USC 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 €billion Cumulative exchequer capital spending plans 2016 to 2021 2015 Capital Plan NPF/Budget 2019
  6. 6. Tax cuts were modest €(400) €(200) €- €200 €400 €600 €800 €1,000 €1,200 €1,400 Gross Income Change in amount of tax paid Change in tax bill as a result of budget changes Change in tax bill assuming 2.5% wage growth
  7. 7. Extra funding for Higher Education is welcome • Reduction USC 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 €000'sperstudent Higher Education Spending per student
  8. 8. Brexit Supports A total of €110mn has been allocated across all of Government for Brexit Business supports include: • funding for the enterprise agencies, • a ‘future growth loan scheme’ and • direct supports for Agri-Food companies
  9. 9. Competitiveness Challenge The 9% VAT rate for tourism sector increased to 13.5%. There was no increase in the Carbon Tax on Budget day There was a 50c increase in the price of a packet of cigarettes Betting duty increased
  10. 10. Further information: Fergal O’ Brien Director of Policy and Public Affairs T: 0 1 605 1544 E: fergal.obrien@ibec.ie

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