Keynote address 3 seishi


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  • ホモサピエンスは30~20万年前にアフリカで発生。その他のホモ属は絶滅した。そして、1万年前までに南極大陸をのぞく地球上に拡散。 一万年前に農耕と牧畜がはじまり、第一の人口爆発が起こる。 産業革命以降、科学技術による農業が開始された。第二の人口爆発  リービッヒの最小律(1830年代)  ハーバーボッシュ法による窒素固定(1908)  メンデル 交配育種  機械による新大陸の開発 蒸気船による食糧輸送  ダム、水路建設 動力ポンプ 第二の人口爆発の延長線上に100億人時代があるが、可能か。 第三の人口爆発は? 火星に移住?
  • Keynote address 3 seishi

    1. 1. ICT in Agriculture – Lessons learned in Asia Seishi Ninomiya The University of Tokyo
    2. 2. Agriculture was successful in 20th century 1961 2003• Wheat 1.1 t/ha 2.9 t/ha (2.7 times)• Rice 1.9 t/ha 4.0 t/ha (2.1 times)• Corn 1.9 t/ha 4.7 t/ha (2.4 times)• Population 3 billion 6.3 billion (2.1 times)• Labor (hrs/ha)* 1,750 hrs 250hrs (1/7th) FAO statistics * Case of Japan 1 ha = 2.5 acre
    3. 3. But its sustainability is being terrified because the success depended on chemicals and high resource consumption, resulting in• Serious impacts on environment – Water pollution and shortage – Damage on ecosystem – Degradation of soil – CO2 emission in total• Food safety and reliability issues In addition, climatic change and frequent extreme weather are destabilizing crop productivity
    4. 4. Agriculture in 21st century• Food shortage crisis – Population increases by 200,000 per day – Usage of food for bio-fuel – Meat consumption increase – Unstable and short water supply – Land shortage and degradation – Damage by global warming and frequent extreme whether conditions• Real sustainability of food production – Paradigm shift from maximization to optimization – High productivity – Profit performance – Low impact on environment – Sustainable resource management – Food safety – Robustness and best management against global warming
    5. 5. An example of such optimization • Reduction of pesticide application results in – Cost reduction • Material cost, labor cost – Lower impact on environment – Lower CO2 output – Food safety and reliability • To reduce pesticide – Timely and pinpoint protection (application) • For timely and pinpoint protection – Prediction of pest emergence – Optimal crop management
    6. 6. ICT helps optimization in many aspects • Sustainable agriculture – Optimal agro-chemical application – Optimal energy saving • Cost reduction and competitive agriculture – Optimal farm planning, efficient management of large number of fields – Efficient distribution of products • Robust and stable farm production under extreme weather and global warming – Optimal crop / variety recommendation, optimal cropping timing – Early warning system of extreme weather • Food safety and reliability – Tractability, right use of pesticide – GAP risk management • High quality products – Quality sensing and optimal crop management6• Acceleration of agricultural research
    7. 7. Challenges in technologies• Site-specific data acquisition – Spatially high resolution data – Efficient ground data monitoring • Decision model tuning/assimilation and evaluation• Agricultural cloud to share data and applications – Platform to exchange data seamlessly • Spatial and temporal data integration • Data standardization • Multilingual system to share data among countries and regions
    8. 8. Integration of low cost sensor networks A farm, HokkaidoUniversity of Florida JICA Project, Beijing Spinach farm, Chengmai Tomato green house Orange farm, Arida Orange farm, kumano Rain fed paddy, Khon Kaen Coffee farm, Hawaii Pasture Imja Glacier Lak, Nepal Rice paddy, NARC
    9. 9. Airborne pest immigration prediction – an example of data integration• Weather forecast to predict stream speed and direction• Particle diffusion model to predict insect dispersion• Identification taking-off origin – Inverse simulation based on insect trap data to find candidates locations of origins – Satellite image analysis to identify paddies of origins among candidates – Crop growth model to estimate rice growth stage 4 mm• Insect behavior model to estimate taking-off time Rice Hopper 3 mg Immigration Route
    10. 10. Global scale rice productivity simulation
    11. 11. The last one mile issues• Lingual illiteracy – How to communicate with them?• ICT illiteracy – How to extend ICT in rural area?• Lack of site-specific information – How to provide it for most optimal site-specific decisions?• Shortage of extension staffs – Who provides proper advices?• Difficulty to realize extensibility of the approach to different language
    12. 12. Youth Mediated Communication Model   ( YMC ) • A totally new approach of decision support system to solve the last one mile issues with illiterate farmers • Communication with illiterate farmers through children being educated at schools • Site-specific field information acquisition by children • To compensate the lack of local experts by remote experts • An way to extend ICT in rural area through educating children • A trial to provide internationally extensible mechanism12
    13. 13. YMC Viet general flow [2] Write Qs [1] Hearing    Field Data   Analogue communication [3] Reply[4] Communicating reply Dialogue with Experts (via Internet)from expert Test bed in Vietnam 40 families participated Children from age 9 to 14 Copyright © 2011 NPO Pangaea
    14. 14. Sensor tools used in YMC Viet Copyright © 2011 NPO Pangaea
    15. 15. Children sensors in actionAir temperature and humidity Plant height, leaf color, pests Plant images 15
    16. 16. Youth Flow 1/2 Copyright © 2011 NPO Pangaea
    17. 17. Youth Flow 2/2 Copyright © 2011 NPO Pangaea
    18. 18. Q & A mechanism• Typical questions and corresponding answers are provided in advance as a Q & A sets – About 250 sets at the beginning – So-called recipe cards are provided corresponding to typical answers – Qs & As are not simply one-to-one so that experts need to interact• Children can also consult experts with free text questions when they cannot find proper ones in the Q&A sets – The interactions between children and experts are used to enrich the Q&A sets• Questions go along with field data by children
    19. 19. Recipe Cards for easier communicationCards are used to tell parents about experts advices as itis easy to forget by the time you go home. Copyright © 2011 NPO Pangaea
    20. 20. Information Flow of YMC Rural Area Service Grid Facilitator ・ Support children ・ Youth PC YMC System Mobile phone Qu (Q&A system+ online text) es t ion an n df tio iel d es inf Qu ols orm to Ma a ti ue ch i on a l og ne ・ An tr a n sl Experts er a ti sw on in Japan and Vietnamilliterate famers An An sw er Bridger Support translation Copyright © 2011 NPO Pangaea
    21. 21. Some photos taken by youths
    22. 22. Youth Sensors• Youths’ sensors will provide spatially high density weather information – Low cost and maintenance free – Outlier can be easily found – Very useful for reliable decision support• The collected data can be used for an early warning system – e.g. Emergence of rice blast – GIS can be a good interface• Long-term continuous observation makes decision support more reliable – By overcoming site-specificity of agriculture
    23. 23. Plant height data reported by children
    24. 24. Conclusions• YMC approach seems to work fine in advising illiterate farmers though we need to continue the trial for some more cropping seasons to give the evaluation• Youths’ sensors help the experts to provide proper advices• Children became more interested in agriculture than before and have more communication with parents
    25. 25. Thank you very much Seishi Ninomiya
    26. 26. Agriculture and world population 10 6.5billion   10 Agriculture 0.5billionPopulation 7 Tools 10 (implements and fire) 5million 20th century 15000   4 10 6 5 4 3 2 1 10 10 10 10 10 10 Years ago   Revised from Robert W.Kate(1994)