1. 6/13/2018
1
Making Foresight 20/20
Carter’s
Dave Shugan, CFI
Josh Hamilton, CFI
Ascena
Rob LaCommare, CFI
Scott Pethuyne
History for Carter’s
• White board
• Oz / Jeff Foxworthy
• CT to GA
• Josh
• 16 to 830
2. 6/13/2018
2
What Was Our Goal?
• Loss Prevention vs. Loss Reaction
– How have we made decisions previously?
• Goal of Predictive Analytics
– Accurate and Actionable Analytics
Concept
• What are you trying to predict?
– Outcome vs. Single Event
• How do you predict?
– What does it mean to Predict?
– How accurate do you need to be?
– Like an interrogation…
3. 6/13/2018
3
Gather &
Understand
Your Data
Apply Statistics Validate & Analyze Predict
Method
Data Types
• All data starts as good data…
– Demographic, Weather, Census
– LP Specific Data
– Shrink
– Sales & Operational
– HR/Payroll
– Inventory/Supply Chain Data
• Look for data in uncommon places
4. 6/13/2018
4
Carter’s Application for Preventing Shrink
Total Actual
Shrink $ Predicted Shrink Capture Rate
-$5,201,238 -$5,278,537 101%
# of Stores
Modeled
Accurately
Modeled
Inaccurately
Modeled
608 184
77% 23%
792
Patience
• Data Acquisition
• Development & Research
• Reverse Engineering
• Evolving Model
• Evaluation Time
5. 6/13/2018
5
Wins
• Travel Expenses
• Store inventory selection
• High Shrink program
• Laser focus in communication & education.
• Sharing the wealth
Ascena Predictive Analytics Overview
• What did Ascena hope to accomplish?
• How the plan became a reality
6. 6/13/2018
6
High-Shrink Program Timelines
Standard:
With Modeling:
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Physical Inventory Taken
High-Shrink Stores Chosen
Physical Inventory Taken
High-Shrink Program Evaluated
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Physical Inventory Taken
High-Shrink Stores Chosen
Physical Inventory Taken
High-Shrink Program Evaluated
Shrink Prediction Made
High-Shrink Program Corrected
Multi-Brand Application
7. 6/13/2018
7
Differences Across Brands
#
Correct
Percent
Correct
Top 20 17 85.00%
Bottom 20 16 80.00%
#
Correct
Percent
Correct
Top 20 19 95.00%
Bottom 20 19 95.00%
Predictive Performance: Predictive Performance:
Capturing Good Data
Hotline/Store
Incident Portal
Survey Portal
AP Business
Snapshot