SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 8
Download to read offline
6/13/2018
1
Making Foresight 20/20
Carter’s
Dave Shugan, CFI
Josh Hamilton, CFI
Ascena
Rob LaCommare, CFI
Scott Pethuyne
History for Carter’s
• White board
• Oz / Jeff Foxworthy
• CT to GA
• Josh
• 16 to 830
6/13/2018
2
What Was Our Goal?
• Loss Prevention vs. Loss Reaction
– How have we made decisions previously?
• Goal of Predictive Analytics
– Accurate and Actionable Analytics
Concept
• What are you trying to predict?
– Outcome vs. Single Event
• How do you predict?
– What does it mean to Predict?
– How accurate do you need to be?
– Like an interrogation…
6/13/2018
3
Gather &
Understand
Your Data
Apply Statistics Validate & Analyze Predict
Method
Data Types
• All data starts as good data…
– Demographic, Weather, Census
– LP Specific Data
– Shrink
– Sales & Operational
– HR/Payroll
– Inventory/Supply Chain Data
• Look for data in uncommon places
6/13/2018
4
Carter’s Application for Preventing Shrink
Total Actual
Shrink $ Predicted Shrink Capture Rate
-$5,201,238 -$5,278,537 101%
# of Stores
Modeled
Accurately
Modeled
Inaccurately
Modeled
608 184
77% 23%
792
Patience
• Data Acquisition
• Development & Research
• Reverse Engineering
• Evolving Model
• Evaluation Time
6/13/2018
5
Wins
• Travel Expenses
• Store inventory selection
• High Shrink program
• Laser focus in communication & education.
• Sharing the wealth
Ascena Predictive Analytics Overview
• What did Ascena hope to accomplish?
• How the plan became a reality
6/13/2018
6
High-Shrink Program Timelines
Standard:
With Modeling:
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Physical Inventory Taken
High-Shrink Stores Chosen
Physical Inventory Taken
High-Shrink Program Evaluated
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Physical Inventory Taken
High-Shrink Stores Chosen
Physical Inventory Taken
High-Shrink Program Evaluated
Shrink Prediction Made
High-Shrink Program Corrected
Multi-Brand Application
6/13/2018
7
Differences Across Brands
#
Correct
Percent
Correct
Top 20 17 85.00%
Bottom 20 16 80.00%
#
Correct
Percent
Correct
Top 20 19 95.00%
Bottom 20 19 95.00%
Predictive Performance: Predictive Performance:
Capturing Good Data
Hotline/Store
Incident Portal
Survey Portal
AP Business
Snapshot
6/13/2018
8
Remember:
“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.”
-George Box

More Related Content

More from National Retail Federation

Building deeper empathy for your customers in uncertain times and beyond
Building deeper empathy for your customers in uncertain times and beyondBuilding deeper empathy for your customers in uncertain times and beyond
Building deeper empathy for your customers in uncertain times and beyondNational Retail Federation
 
The state of commerce: Key trends and future predictions
The state of commerce: Key trends and future predictionsThe state of commerce: Key trends and future predictions
The state of commerce: Key trends and future predictionsNational Retail Federation
 
Redefining intelligence: Exploring the latest advances in next-generation AI ...
Redefining intelligence: Exploring the latest advances in next-generation AI ...Redefining intelligence: Exploring the latest advances in next-generation AI ...
Redefining intelligence: Exploring the latest advances in next-generation AI ...National Retail Federation
 
Top global consumer trends for retailers in 2023
Top global consumer trends for retailers in 2023Top global consumer trends for retailers in 2023
Top global consumer trends for retailers in 2023National Retail Federation
 
Data-driven site selection: How understanding consumer movement drives Little...
Data-driven site selection: How understanding consumer movement drives Little...Data-driven site selection: How understanding consumer movement drives Little...
Data-driven site selection: How understanding consumer movement drives Little...National Retail Federation
 
Demystifying data: Profitability, people and the power of analytics
Demystifying data: Profitability, people and the power of analyticsDemystifying data: Profitability, people and the power of analytics
Demystifying data: Profitability, people and the power of analyticsNational Retail Federation
 
Five reasons automation will save your restaurant
Five reasons automation will save your restaurantFive reasons automation will save your restaurant
Five reasons automation will save your restaurantNational Retail Federation
 
Retail Media Networks: How the physical store will power their next phase of ...
Retail Media Networks: How the physical store will power their next phase of ...Retail Media Networks: How the physical store will power their next phase of ...
Retail Media Networks: How the physical store will power their next phase of ...National Retail Federation
 
Working together to combat organized retail crime
Working together to combat organized retail crimeWorking together to combat organized retail crime
Working together to combat organized retail crimeNational Retail Federation
 
Voice in retail: It speaks, it listens, it’s impacting our real world businesses
Voice in retail: It speaks, it listens, it’s impacting our real world businessesVoice in retail: It speaks, it listens, it’s impacting our real world businesses
Voice in retail: It speaks, it listens, it’s impacting our real world businessesNational Retail Federation
 
A look ahead to 2023: Impasse or opportunity for a new path
A look ahead to 2023: Impasse or opportunity for a new pathA look ahead to 2023: Impasse or opportunity for a new path
A look ahead to 2023: Impasse or opportunity for a new pathNational Retail Federation
 
How prescriptive analytics solves real-world grocery retail problems
How prescriptive analytics solves real-world grocery retail problemsHow prescriptive analytics solves real-world grocery retail problems
How prescriptive analytics solves real-world grocery retail problemsNational Retail Federation
 
Technology to streamline your staff operations and drive customer engagement
Technology to streamline your staff operations and drive customer engagementTechnology to streamline your staff operations and drive customer engagement
Technology to streamline your staff operations and drive customer engagementNational Retail Federation
 
The risks of operating in silos in fresh: How to unify operations, merchandis...
The risks of operating in silos in fresh: How to unify operations, merchandis...The risks of operating in silos in fresh: How to unify operations, merchandis...
The risks of operating in silos in fresh: How to unify operations, merchandis...National Retail Federation
 
Fueling fulfillment: American Eagle Outfitters’ quiet platform levels the pla...
Fueling fulfillment: American Eagle Outfitters’ quiet platform levels the pla...Fueling fulfillment: American Eagle Outfitters’ quiet platform levels the pla...
Fueling fulfillment: American Eagle Outfitters’ quiet platform levels the pla...National Retail Federation
 
Where is restaurant technology headed in the next five years?
Where is restaurant technology headed in the next five years?Where is restaurant technology headed in the next five years?
Where is restaurant technology headed in the next five years?National Retail Federation
 
The store of the future is less about the store and more about the business m...
The store of the future is less about the store and more about the business m...The store of the future is less about the store and more about the business m...
The store of the future is less about the store and more about the business m...National Retail Federation
 
Under the influence: Building successful brand collaborations with content cr...
Under the influence: Building successful brand collaborations with content cr...Under the influence: Building successful brand collaborations with content cr...
Under the influence: Building successful brand collaborations with content cr...National Retail Federation
 
NYC’s virtual store tour: New stores shine with innovation and creativity
NYC’s virtual store tour: New stores shine with innovation and creativityNYC’s virtual store tour: New stores shine with innovation and creativity
NYC’s virtual store tour: New stores shine with innovation and creativityNational Retail Federation
 

More from National Retail Federation (20)

Building deeper empathy for your customers in uncertain times and beyond
Building deeper empathy for your customers in uncertain times and beyondBuilding deeper empathy for your customers in uncertain times and beyond
Building deeper empathy for your customers in uncertain times and beyond
 
The state of commerce: Key trends and future predictions
The state of commerce: Key trends and future predictionsThe state of commerce: Key trends and future predictions
The state of commerce: Key trends and future predictions
 
Redefining intelligence: Exploring the latest advances in next-generation AI ...
Redefining intelligence: Exploring the latest advances in next-generation AI ...Redefining intelligence: Exploring the latest advances in next-generation AI ...
Redefining intelligence: Exploring the latest advances in next-generation AI ...
 
Top global consumer trends for retailers in 2023
Top global consumer trends for retailers in 2023Top global consumer trends for retailers in 2023
Top global consumer trends for retailers in 2023
 
Data-driven site selection: How understanding consumer movement drives Little...
Data-driven site selection: How understanding consumer movement drives Little...Data-driven site selection: How understanding consumer movement drives Little...
Data-driven site selection: How understanding consumer movement drives Little...
 
Can resale increase foot traffic in stores?
Can resale increase foot traffic in stores?Can resale increase foot traffic in stores?
Can resale increase foot traffic in stores?
 
Demystifying data: Profitability, people and the power of analytics
Demystifying data: Profitability, people and the power of analyticsDemystifying data: Profitability, people and the power of analytics
Demystifying data: Profitability, people and the power of analytics
 
Five reasons automation will save your restaurant
Five reasons automation will save your restaurantFive reasons automation will save your restaurant
Five reasons automation will save your restaurant
 
Retail Media Networks: How the physical store will power their next phase of ...
Retail Media Networks: How the physical store will power their next phase of ...Retail Media Networks: How the physical store will power their next phase of ...
Retail Media Networks: How the physical store will power their next phase of ...
 
Working together to combat organized retail crime
Working together to combat organized retail crimeWorking together to combat organized retail crime
Working together to combat organized retail crime
 
Voice in retail: It speaks, it listens, it’s impacting our real world businesses
Voice in retail: It speaks, it listens, it’s impacting our real world businessesVoice in retail: It speaks, it listens, it’s impacting our real world businesses
Voice in retail: It speaks, it listens, it’s impacting our real world businesses
 
A look ahead to 2023: Impasse or opportunity for a new path
A look ahead to 2023: Impasse or opportunity for a new pathA look ahead to 2023: Impasse or opportunity for a new path
A look ahead to 2023: Impasse or opportunity for a new path
 
How prescriptive analytics solves real-world grocery retail problems
How prescriptive analytics solves real-world grocery retail problemsHow prescriptive analytics solves real-world grocery retail problems
How prescriptive analytics solves real-world grocery retail problems
 
Technology to streamline your staff operations and drive customer engagement
Technology to streamline your staff operations and drive customer engagementTechnology to streamline your staff operations and drive customer engagement
Technology to streamline your staff operations and drive customer engagement
 
The risks of operating in silos in fresh: How to unify operations, merchandis...
The risks of operating in silos in fresh: How to unify operations, merchandis...The risks of operating in silos in fresh: How to unify operations, merchandis...
The risks of operating in silos in fresh: How to unify operations, merchandis...
 
Fueling fulfillment: American Eagle Outfitters’ quiet platform levels the pla...
Fueling fulfillment: American Eagle Outfitters’ quiet platform levels the pla...Fueling fulfillment: American Eagle Outfitters’ quiet platform levels the pla...
Fueling fulfillment: American Eagle Outfitters’ quiet platform levels the pla...
 
Where is restaurant technology headed in the next five years?
Where is restaurant technology headed in the next five years?Where is restaurant technology headed in the next five years?
Where is restaurant technology headed in the next five years?
 
The store of the future is less about the store and more about the business m...
The store of the future is less about the store and more about the business m...The store of the future is less about the store and more about the business m...
The store of the future is less about the store and more about the business m...
 
Under the influence: Building successful brand collaborations with content cr...
Under the influence: Building successful brand collaborations with content cr...Under the influence: Building successful brand collaborations with content cr...
Under the influence: Building successful brand collaborations with content cr...
 
NYC’s virtual store tour: New stores shine with innovation and creativity
NYC’s virtual store tour: New stores shine with innovation and creativityNYC’s virtual store tour: New stores shine with innovation and creativity
NYC’s virtual store tour: New stores shine with innovation and creativity
 

Recently uploaded

Retail OS - Delivering the Omnichannel Experience.pptx
Retail OS - Delivering the Omnichannel Experience.pptxRetail OS - Delivering the Omnichannel Experience.pptx
Retail OS - Delivering the Omnichannel Experience.pptxJohn Andrews
 
Key-Benefits-of-Marketplace-Payment-Reconciliation
Key-Benefits-of-Marketplace-Payment-ReconciliationKey-Benefits-of-Marketplace-Payment-Reconciliation
Key-Benefits-of-Marketplace-Payment-ReconciliationVinculum Solutions Pvt. Ltd.
 
Aliexpress Coupon Codes And Discount Codes
Aliexpress Coupon Codes And Discount CodesAliexpress Coupon Codes And Discount Codes
Aliexpress Coupon Codes And Discount Codesbirs gonzo
 
Web 3 in Retail Unlocking New Possibilities
Web 3 in Retail Unlocking New PossibilitiesWeb 3 in Retail Unlocking New Possibilities
Web 3 in Retail Unlocking New PossibilitiesLiveplex
 
Delihvery-Delivery Partner-Ecommerce Platform
Delihvery-Delivery Partner-Ecommerce PlatformDelihvery-Delivery Partner-Ecommerce Platform
Delihvery-Delivery Partner-Ecommerce PlatformDeborahnich
 

Recently uploaded (6)

Retail OS - Delivering the Omnichannel Experience.pptx
Retail OS - Delivering the Omnichannel Experience.pptxRetail OS - Delivering the Omnichannel Experience.pptx
Retail OS - Delivering the Omnichannel Experience.pptx
 
Key-Benefits-of-Marketplace-Payment-Reconciliation
Key-Benefits-of-Marketplace-Payment-ReconciliationKey-Benefits-of-Marketplace-Payment-Reconciliation
Key-Benefits-of-Marketplace-Payment-Reconciliation
 
Aliexpress Coupon Codes And Discount Codes
Aliexpress Coupon Codes And Discount CodesAliexpress Coupon Codes And Discount Codes
Aliexpress Coupon Codes And Discount Codes
 
Web 3 in Retail Unlocking New Possibilities
Web 3 in Retail Unlocking New PossibilitiesWeb 3 in Retail Unlocking New Possibilities
Web 3 in Retail Unlocking New Possibilities
 
Ball Pens
Ball                                PensBall                                Pens
Ball Pens
 
Delihvery-Delivery Partner-Ecommerce Platform
Delihvery-Delivery Partner-Ecommerce PlatformDelihvery-Delivery Partner-Ecommerce Platform
Delihvery-Delivery Partner-Ecommerce Platform
 

Making foresight 20/20

  • 1. 6/13/2018 1 Making Foresight 20/20 Carter’s Dave Shugan, CFI Josh Hamilton, CFI Ascena Rob LaCommare, CFI Scott Pethuyne History for Carter’s • White board • Oz / Jeff Foxworthy • CT to GA • Josh • 16 to 830
  • 2. 6/13/2018 2 What Was Our Goal? • Loss Prevention vs. Loss Reaction – How have we made decisions previously? • Goal of Predictive Analytics – Accurate and Actionable Analytics Concept • What are you trying to predict? – Outcome vs. Single Event • How do you predict? – What does it mean to Predict? – How accurate do you need to be? – Like an interrogation…
  • 3. 6/13/2018 3 Gather & Understand Your Data Apply Statistics Validate & Analyze Predict Method Data Types • All data starts as good data… – Demographic, Weather, Census – LP Specific Data – Shrink – Sales & Operational – HR/Payroll – Inventory/Supply Chain Data • Look for data in uncommon places
  • 4. 6/13/2018 4 Carter’s Application for Preventing Shrink Total Actual Shrink $ Predicted Shrink Capture Rate -$5,201,238 -$5,278,537 101% # of Stores Modeled Accurately Modeled Inaccurately Modeled 608 184 77% 23% 792 Patience • Data Acquisition • Development & Research • Reverse Engineering • Evolving Model • Evaluation Time
  • 5. 6/13/2018 5 Wins • Travel Expenses • Store inventory selection • High Shrink program • Laser focus in communication & education. • Sharing the wealth Ascena Predictive Analytics Overview • What did Ascena hope to accomplish? • How the plan became a reality
  • 6. 6/13/2018 6 High-Shrink Program Timelines Standard: With Modeling: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Physical Inventory Taken High-Shrink Stores Chosen Physical Inventory Taken High-Shrink Program Evaluated Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Physical Inventory Taken High-Shrink Stores Chosen Physical Inventory Taken High-Shrink Program Evaluated Shrink Prediction Made High-Shrink Program Corrected Multi-Brand Application
  • 7. 6/13/2018 7 Differences Across Brands # Correct Percent Correct Top 20 17 85.00% Bottom 20 16 80.00% # Correct Percent Correct Top 20 19 95.00% Bottom 20 19 95.00% Predictive Performance: Predictive Performance: Capturing Good Data Hotline/Store Incident Portal Survey Portal AP Business Snapshot
  • 8. 6/13/2018 8 Remember: “Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.” -George Box