1.
HOLIDAY 2016

2.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. Holiday Forecast ....................................
II. Holiday Survey 1 .....................................
III. Thanksgiving Forecast .......................
IV. Holiday Survey 2 ....................................
V. Thanksgiving Weekend Results ...
VI. Cyber Monday ..........................................
VII. Holiday Survey 3 .....................................
pages 3–5
pages 6–12
pages 13–14
pages 15–20
pages 21–24
page 25
pages 26–34

3.
nrf.com/url
HISTORICAL HOLIDAY FORECAST
Holiday sales for 2016 are expected to increase by 3.6%. This forecast number is above
the 7-year average of 3.4% since the recovery began in 2009.
On April 29, 2016, unadjusted estimates of monthly sales were revised by Census for January 2008 through March
2016. Growth rates are based on the most comparable data available. NRF holiday spending is defined as the months of
November and December.
nrf.com/holiday
2.1%
5.1%
6.8%
6.2%
3.2% 2.7%
-4.6% 0.2%
5.2%
4.6% 2.6%
3.0%
4.1%
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Holiday Retail Sales (in millions) % Holiday Sales Change
HISTORICAL HOLIDAY SALES
2016
3.2%
3.6%
$416,416
$437,613
$467,195
$496,040
$512,105
$525,993
$501,594
$502,781
$528,930
$553,397
$567,771
$613,266
$585,088
$632,835
$655,870

4.
nrf.com/url
HISTORICAL HOLIDAY EMPLOYMENT
This holiday season, retailers could add as many as 690,000 new seasonal positions.
This number is in line with last year’s 675,300 new holiday positions.
On April 5, 2016, nonfarm employment was revised by BLS between March 2005-2015. NRF employment forecast
excludes automobiles, gasoline and food services.
nrf.com/holiday
744.58
483.35
547.08 585.82
679.98 684.43
660.27
688.38
263.82
368.76
563.02
636.57
660.3
764.75
697.5
675.3
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
HOLIDAY EMPLOYMENT (IN THOUSANDS)
640–690

5.
On April 29, 2016, unadjusted estimates of monthly sales were revised by Census for January 2008 through March 2016.
nrf.com/url
HISTORICAL HOLIDAY SALES BY SECTOR
Retail Sales by Sector
2015 2014
HOLIDAY SALES
(Nov/Dec, in
Millions)
ANNUAL SALES
(in Millions)
% ANNUAL
SALES FROM
HOLIDAY
HOLIDAY SALES
(Nov/Dec, in
Millions)
ANNUAL SALES
(in Millions)
% ANNUAL
SALES FROM
HOLIDAY
Furniture and home furnishings stores 20,085 105,376 19.1% 19,104 99,687 19.2%
Electronics and appliance stores 23,324 104,511 22.3% 24,551 104,012 23.6%
Building mat. and garden equipment & supplies 53,933 332,561 16.2% 49,746 317,715 15.7%
Food and beverage stores 120,117 690,225 17.4% 118,388 669,902 17.7%
Health and personal care stores 56,100 312,751 17.9% 53,409 299,891 17.8%
Clothing stores 40,369 187,939 21.5% 40,566 183,007 22.2%
Shoe stores 6,738 33,753 20.0% 6,530 33,531 19.5%
Jewelry stores 8,293 30,288 27.4% 8,359 31,625 26.4%
Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores 21,012 90,418 23.2% 19,893 85,375 23.3%
Discount dept. stores 24,424 106,344 23.0% 24,523 107,678 22.8%
Department stores incl. leased Dept 40,377 167,079 24.2% 41,241 170,421 24.2%
Warehouse clubs and superstores 84,305 440,142 19.2% 83,384 433,303 19.2%
Electronic shopping and mail-order retailers 97,453 432,742 22.5% 86,521 386,135 22.4%
nrf.com/holiday

6.
nrf.com/url
HISTORICAL HOLIDAY SPENDING BY CATEGORY
Food and candy spending is estimated to reach just over $100, decorations will hover around $50
and spending on greeting cards and flowers will be in the $20-$27 range. This spending category is
expected to reach a total of $207.07.
nrf.com/holiday
$$5544..7755
$$2277..3344
$104.57
Historical Holiday Spending by Category 2004 – 2016
Candy and food
Decorations
Greeting cards
and postage
Flowers and
potted plants

7.
Missing from this chart is “gift for others” with consumers spending an average of $26.65.
nrf.com/url
HISTORICAL GIFT SPENDING
Nearly everyone will purchase gifts for family, while 71% plan to purchase gifts for friends and a third
will buy gifts for co-workers. When it comes to gifts, consumers are spending approximately $588.90.
nrf.com/holiday
$$446600..6677
$76.83
$$2244..775
Gifts for family
Gifts for friends
Gifts for
co-workers
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Historical Holiday Gift Spending 2004 - 2016

8.
nrf.com/url
HISTORICAL SPENDING ON NON-GIFT PURCHASES
58% of consumers also plan to take advantage of holiday deals to make non-gift purchases, up
4.4% from last year. Total spending for this category has reached its second highest level ever at
approximately $140.
$88.99
$84.73
$94.70
$97.26
$106.67
$101.37
$112.20
$137.17
$140.43
$134.77
$126.37
$133.74
$139.61
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Spending on Non-Gift Purchases
nrf.com/holiday

9.
nrf.com/url
MOST SHOPPERS WON’T START UNTIL NOVEMBER
Similar to previous years, the majority of consumers won’t start shopping until November, with
nearly two in 10 waiting until December. But 41% tackle their lists right away, beginning in October or
earlier. Top reasons for shopping early include spreading out the budget and avoiding crowds.
Before September
September
October
November
First 2 weeks of December
Last 2 weeks of December
12.2% 6.5%
21.9%
41.4%
15.0%
3.0%
When Consumers Plan to Start Shopping
nrf.com/holiday

10.
6611..00%%
5533..55%%
4400..00%%
3322..00%%
2233..22%%
2233..11%%
2200..66%%
1188..88%%
1177..11%%
66..66%%
Gift cards / gift certificates
Clothing or clothing accessories
Books, CDs, DVDs, videos or video games
Consumer electronics or computer-related accessories
Jewelry or precious metal accessories
Home décor or home-related furnishings
Personal care or beauty items
Sporting goods or leisure items
Home improvement items or tools
Other
nrf.com/url
MORE CONSUMERS WANT GIFT CARDS
THIS HOLIDAY SEASON
Women are more likely to wish for gift cards (69% vs 53%.) On the flip side, men love their
gadgets: 41% want consumer electronics compared with only 24% of women.
nrf.com/holiday

11.
WHERE WILL CONSUMERS SHOP THIS HOLIDAY SEASON?
Department stores and online sites will be the top places to shop this year. Online shopping is at its
highest ever, up 6.8% from 2015. In a new addition to the survey this year, one in 10 consumers will
shop at outlets.
5566..66%%
5566..55%%
5555..77%%
4444..55%%
3333..66%%
2266..99%%
2222..77%%
1177..33%%
1155..00%%
1133..55%%
1100..11%%
99..88%%
99..00%%
33..33%%
Department store
Online
Discount store
Grocery store/supermarket
Clothing or accessories store
Electronics store
Local/small business
Crafts or fabrics store
Drug store
Other specialty store
Outlet stores
Thrift stores/resale shops
Catalog
Other
nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday

12.
GENEROUS HOLIDAY PROMOTIONS WILL
BRING IN SHOPPERS
7733..33%%
6600..55%% 5599..22%%
4488..22%%
4444..99%%
4411..11%%
3355..33%%
3300..22%%
2288..33%%
Sales or
price discounts
Quality of
merchandise
Selection of
merchandise
Free shipping
/shipping
promotions
Highest
Ever
Convenient
location
Everyday
low prices
No hassle
return policy
Easy website
or mobile site
Helpful,
knowledgable
customer service
Top Factors for Choosing a Retailer
Highest
Ever
nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday

13.
HISTORICAL PLANNED SHOPPING
FOR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND
62.0% 61.1%
58.7% 59.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016
Percentage of Consumers that Might or
Will Shop Over Thanksgiving Weekend
137.4 million unique potential shoppers might or will shop over Thanksgiving weekend. Nearly eight
in 10 Millennials are likely to shop over Thanksgiving weekend, which is significantly higher than
adults 35+.
nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday

14.
BREAKDOWN OF SHOPPING DAYS
OVER THANKSGIVING WEEKEND
Thanksgiving Day, November 24
Saturday, November 26
Sunday, November 27
Breakdown of Thanksgiving Weekend Shopping
21.1%
46.7%
24.2%
Friday, November 25 (Black Friday) 74.0%
74% of consumers who plan to shop over Thanksgiving weekend will visit their favorite retailers on
Black Friday. Nearly half plan to shop that Saturday, with 24% saying they’re shopping specifically
for Small Business Saturday.
nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday

15.
Types of Gifts Consumers Plan to Buy
Other (please specify) 4.6%
61.2%Clothing or clothing accessories
55.9%
43.6%
Gift cards/gift certificates
Books, CDs, DVDs, videos or video games
Toys 42.0%
Food/candy 31.2%
29.5%Consumer electronics or computer-related accessories
Personal care or beauty items 25.0%
Jewelry or precious metal accessories 21.4%
Home décor or home-related furnishings 20.6%
Plan to give cash 19.5%
Sporting goods or leisure items
Home improvement items or tools
Flowers/plants 8.6%
12.3%
17.4%
nrf.com/url
TOP GIFTS CONSUMERS ARE PLANNING
TO PURCHASE THIS YEAR
61% of shoppers are planning to purchase clothing or clothing accessories as a gift, up from
60% last year. Gift cards, books/videos/video games, toys and food/candy remain some of the
top gift choices to give during the holidays.
nrf.com/holiday

16.
Specific Type of Gift Cards Consumers Plan to Buy
Restaurant
Department store
Visa/MasterCard/American Express/Discover Gift Card
Coffee shop
Entertainment (movies, music, etc.)
Electronics store
Bookstore
Online merchant
Grocery store/gasoline
Gas station
Discount store
Home improvement store
Specialty clothing store
Salon/spa
Sporting goods store
Craft store
Home décor/houseware store
Shoe store
Catalog
Office supply store
Other
35.2%
33.0%
22.4%
21.2%
17.4%
16.0%
15.6%
14.0%
11.5%
9.5%
9.2%
8.0%
6.5%
5.8%
5.4%
4.3%
4.2%
3.0%
2.7%
2.4%
4.2%
nrf.com/url
TOP GIFT CARDS CONSUMERS ARE
PLANNING TO GIVE THIS SEASON
Total gift card spending is expected to reach $27.5 billion, up from last year’s $26 billion.
Gift card purchasers will likely purchase an average of three gift cards, each worth $46.
nrf.com/holiday

17.
nrf.com/url
TOP PAYMENT METHODS FOR THE HOLIDAYS
Almost 40% of consumers will purchase their holiday gifts by using a credit or debit
card. Another 56% said they will use PayPal.
nrf.com/holiday
% Using Credit or Debit Cards — Historical
18.8%
18%
18.8%
18.8%
18.8%
18.8%
18.8%
18.8%
18.8%
18.8%
18.8%
18.8%
18.8%
18.8%
18.8%
18.8%
18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8% 18.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Credit Card Debit Card / Check Card

18.
nrf.com/url
ARE RETAILERS’ RETURN POLICIES FAIR?
nrf.com/holiday
YesNo
91.1%
8.9%
An overwhelming majority of consumers find return policies to be fair and 33% of consumers
include gift receipts most of the time.
Last year, consumers only returned 4% of their gifts, on average, with two-thirds saying they
didn’t return any of their gifts.

19.
nrf.com/url
TOP TOYS FOR BOYS
1 LEGO 15.4%
2 Cars Trucks 7.7%
3 Video Games 6.3%
4 Hot Wheels 5.6%
5 Star Wars 4.7%
6 Drone 3.0%
7 Pokemon 2.9%
8 PlayStation 4 2.7%
9 Xbox One 2.5%
10 Paw Patrol 2.4%
11 Nerf 2.3%
T12 Marvel Action Figures 2.2%
T12
Teenage Mutant
Ninja Turtles
2.2%
13 Action/Superhero Figures 2.0%
14 Remote Controlled Vehicle 1.9%
15 Transformers 1.6%
nrf.com/holiday

20.
nrf.com/url
TOP TOYS FOR GIRLS
1 Barbie 22.6%
2 Dolls 11.5%
3 Shopkins 4.9%
4 Hatchimals 4.1%
5 LEGO 3.4%
6 American Girl 3.3%
7 Disney Frozen 3.0%
8 Trolls 2.8%
9 Monster High 2.4%
10 My Little Pony 1.8%
11 Disney Princess 1.6%
12 Apparel/Accessories 1.4%
13 Video Games 1.1%
T14 DC Super Hero Girls 0.9%
T14 Dollhouse 0.9%
T14 Pokemon 0.9%
nrf.com/holiday

21.
101.9
million
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
Yes – In stores Yes – Online No
Number of Consumers Who Shopped/
Planned to Shop Over Thanksgiving Weekend
99.1
million
103.1
million
108.5
million
93.9
million
93.4
million
2015 2016
154.4 million consumers shopped or planned to shop over Thanksgiving weekend, either online
or in stores. Millennials were the most likely to shop over the holiday weekend.
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND SHOPPERS
nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday

22.
WHERE CONSUMERS SHOPPED IN-STORE
Department store
Discount store
Electronics store
Clothing or accessories store
Grocery store/supermarket
Local/small business
Drug store
Other Specialty store
Crafts or fabrics store
Outlet stores
Thrift stores/resale shops
Other
50.9%
34.2%
31.8%
28.4%
24.6%
11.9%
11.2%
10.2%
8.8%
7.9%
5.1%
6.2%
Type of Stores for In-Store Shoppers
Department, discount and electronics stores are the most popular for in-store
shoppers, in line with last year.
nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday

23.
$299.60
$289.19
$229.56
$214.13
2015 2016 2015 2016
Total Holiday Purchases
(among weekend shoppers)
Total Gift Purchases
(among weekend purchasers)
nrf.com/url
TOTAL SPENDING OVER THANKSGIVING WEEKEND
The average holiday spending over the weekend reached $289, of which $214 was spent
on gifts. Both figures are down slightly from last year, but still relatively on par.
nrf.com/holiday

24.
nrf.com/url
CONSUMERS ARE SHOPPING DUE TO PROMOTIONS
nrf.com/holiday
0% – None of my purchases were on sale
1% to 10%
11% to 25%
26% to 50%
51% to 75%
76% to 99%
100% – All of my purchases were on sale
7.0%
5.3%
7.7%
16.2%
15.5%21.1%
36.2%
Percent of Purchases Driven Specifically by Promotions
(among weekend purchasers)
Over one-third of shoppers said that all of their weekend purchases were driven
specifically by sales. That’s up 11.4% from last year.

25.
2015 2016
# of Consumers Planning to Shop Online for Cyber Monday
121.3
million
122.2
million
nrf.com/url
This year, 122.2 million plan to shop online for Cyber Monday, up slightly from last year.
CYBER MONDAY
nrf.com/holiday

26.
nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday
Yes
Maybe
No
Percent Planning to Shop on Super Saturday
19.4%
46.5%
34.2%
156 MILLION CONSUMERS PLAN TO OR
WILL SHOP ON SUPER SATURDAY
For the first time ever, the survey asked consumers if they planned to shop on Super
Saturday, December 17. Two-thirds might or will shop on Super Saturday.

27.
nrf.com/url
WHEN CONSUMERS THINK THEY’LL BUY THEIR LAST GIFT
nrf.com/holiday
Earlier than
Sunday,
December 18
Sunday,
December 18
Monday,
December 19
Tuesday,
December 20
Wednesday,
December 21
Thursday,
December 22
Friday,
December 23
Saturday,
December 24
Sunday,
December 25
After Sunday,
December 25
When Consumers Will Buy Last Gift
38.8%
7.1%
5.3%
8.5% 8.1%
6.3%
12.2%
8.7%
0.5%
4.5%
Almost half plan to buy their last gift a full week before Christmas, but two in 10 plan to
wait until the last minute.

28.
nrf.com/url
HOW MUCH SHOPPING HAS BEEN COMPLETED?
nrf.com/holiday
Similar to previous years, come early December, only one in 10 have finished their holiday
shopping. The majority still have half or more of their shopping left.
Not started yet (0%)
1% to 10%
11% to 25%
26% to 50%
51% to 75%
76% to 99%
100% – FINISHED
10.1% 15.1%
11.6%
12.6%
16.0%
17.2%
17.4%
Percentage of Shopping Completed

29.
nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday
REASONING FOR HAVING HALF OR LESS
OF SHOPPING COMPLETED
72 percent of those
who’ve completed half or
less of their shopping are
still in wait-mode. They
say it’s because they’re still
deciding what to buy or
waiting for requests from
loved ones.
I am still trying to figure out what to buy
I am still waiting for the best deals on holiday merchandise
Holiday shopping is a necessary evil,
and I put it off for as long as possible
I'm waiting for a holiday/year-end
bonus to fund my shopping plans
I have other priorities before December
I am a procrastinator
It helps me spread out my holiday shopping budget
I like the thrill of last-minute shopping
Other
I am waiting for family members/friends
to let me know what they want as gifts
I am busy with other activities which delay/
restrict the time I have to holiday shop
I like to shop for the holiday season during the holiday season
Why Shoppers Have Only Finished Half or Less of Their Holiday Shopping
44.7%
27.2%
27.1%
25.4%
22.5%
22.3%
20.2%
16.3%
9.5%
8.0%
7.0%
4.0%

30.
nrf.com/url
GIFTS ALREADY BOUGHT THIS SEASON
Most popular gift purchases this season include clothing/accessories, toys and gift cards.
Types of Gifts Purchased So Far
2288..33%%
Clothing or
clothing
accessories
Toys Gift cards/gift
certificates
Books, CDs,
DVDs, videos
or video games
Consumer
electronics or
computer-
related
accessories
Personal care
or beauty
items
Food/
candy
Home décor or
home-related
furnishings
Jewelry or
precious metal
accessories
Sporting goods
or leisure
items
Home
improvement
items or tools
Flowers/
plants
Other
50.3%
35.5% 34.1%
32.9%
22.6%
20.7%
20.4%
18.9%
16.6%
12.9%
9.4%
3.2% 9.9%
nrf.com/holiday

31.
Gifts of Experience
I'm planning to give a
gift of experience
I would love to receive
a gift of experience
None of the above
22.8%
38.1%
47.5%
nrf.com/url
Men are more likely than the general population to give a gift of experience, but less likely to
want one. Women are the opposite: They’re more likely to want one, but less likely to give.
GIFTS OF EXPERIENCE
nrf.com/holiday

32.
WHERE CONSUMERS PLAN TO DO REMAINDER OF SHOPPING
Over half plan to finish the rest of their holiday shopping online, which is a survey high. Millennials
(62 percent) are significantly more likely than older generations to complete their shopping online.
Where Consumers Plan to Finish Holiday Shopping
(only top responses shown)
Online
Department store
Discount store
Clothing or Accessories store
Electronics store
Local/Small business
Grocery store/supermarket
Outlet stores
52.3%
42.0%
27.2%
20.9%
18.0%
14.4%
12.9%
9.9%
nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday

33.
Similar to last year, those who receive gift cards will likely wait for really good sales.
Another two in 10 will use their cards as quickly as they get them.
RECEIVING GIFT CARDS
I'll watch for a really good sale or promotion
to maximize the value of my gift card(s)
My gift cards generally end up at the bottom of a
drawer, purse, or wallet – and I forget to spend them
I don't anticipate receiving any
gift cards this holiday season
I'll use my gift cards as quickly as I receive them
I tend to re-gift my gift cards to someone
else or try to sell them for cash
I'll save my gift cards for a rainy day or sometime
when I feel the need to treat myself
Gift Card Use
40.7%
22.3%
18.6%
1.6%
0.6%
16.3%
nrf.com/urlnrf.com/holiday

34.
nrf.com/url
Over two-thirds plan to shop after-Christmas sales, either online or in the stores, up
slightly from last year. Millennials are the most likely to do so, with approximately eight in 10
planning on it.
AFTER-CHRISTMAS SALES
Percent Planning to Shop After-Christmas Sales
Yes – In store Yes – Online No
48.0%
44.3%
32.5%
nrf.com/holiday

35.
nrf.com/holiday
This SlideShare will be updated at the
same time we release any new data.
nrf.com/holiday