Predicting Crowd Behavior with Big Public Data
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http://arxiv.org/abs/1402.2308 Presented at 23rd International World Wide Web Conference, Seoul, Korea, April, 2014 With public information becoming widely accessible and shared on today's web, greater insights are possible into crowd actions by citizens and non-state actors such as large protests and cyber activism. We present efforts to predict the occurrence, specific timeframe, and location of such actions before they occur based on public data collected from over 300,000 open content web sources in 7 languages, from all over the world, ranging from mainstream news to government publications to blogs and social media. Using natural language processing, event information is extracted from content such as type of event, what entities are involved and in what role, sentiment and tone, and the occurrence time range of the event discussed. Statements made on Twitter about a future date from the time of posting prove particularly indicative. We consider in particular the case of the 2013 Egyptian coup d'etat. The study validates and quantifies the common intuition that data on social media (beyond mainstream news sources) are able to predict major events.
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Predicting Crowd Behavior with Big Public Data
- 1. Predic'ng Crowd Behavior with Big Public Data Nathan Kallus Massachuse.s Ins0tute of Technology As seen on: April 8, 2014 23rd Interna0onal World Wide Web Conference Seoul, Korea
- 2. How did crowds used to come together and how did we hear about it in the analog era?
- 3. How did crowds used to come together and how did we hear about it in the analog era?
- 4. How did crowds used to come together and how did we hear about it in the analog era?
- 5. How did crowds used to come together and how did we hear about it in the analog era?
- 6. How did crowds used to come together and how did we hear about it in the analog era?
- 7. The Growth of Data
- 8. The Growth of Data
- 9. “Since the revolt in Syria, the security situation in Lebanon has deteriorated.” The Growth of Data
- 10. “Since the revolt in Syria, the security situation in Lebanon has deteriorated.” The Growth of Data
- 11. “Since the revolt in Syria, the security situation in Lebanon has deteriorated.” The Growth of Data
- 12. “Since the revolt in Syria, the security situation in Lebanon has deteriorated.” The Growth of Data
- 13. Is this data predic0ve? • Sunday 6/9/13: One protester dead in a violent Beirut protest against Hezbollah's interference in Syria • 1 day before in the news: “Lebanese fac0on organizes two demonstra0ons tomorrow rejec0ng the par0cipa0on of Hezbollah in the figh0ng in Syria” (translated from Arabic) • 4 days before on Twi.er: “Say no to #WarCrimes and demonstrate against #Hezbollah figh0ng in #Qusayr on June 9 at 12 PM in Downtown #Beirut” • General sense of violence through news fragments: 6/6: “Fatwa Calls For Suicide A.acks Against Hezbollah” (TheBlaze.com) 6/4: “Since the revolt in Syria, the security situa0on in Lebanon has deteriorated” (Al Bawaba) 5/23: “The revolt in Syria has exacerbated tensions in Lebanon, which ... remains deeply divided” (Huff Post)
- 14. The signal is there… Reports of protest in Lebanon by publish day: We just need the data… Mainstream news Forward-looking twitter 9ê15 10ê1 10ê15 11ê1 11ê15 Day 50 100 Mentions
- 15. Data catered by Recorded Future Con0nually scans 300,000+ sources in 7 languages. News, blogs, social media, govt publica0ons…
- 16. Extract events, times, entities …………… …………… …………… …………… …………… …………… …………… …………… …………… …………… …………… …………… Entities (whoand where) reported event
- 18. Use this to quan0fy the signals All Mainstream Twitter Afghanistan 60918 13979 27655 Bahrain 246136 32873 177310 Egypt 944998 246882 397105 France 172508 22648 111702 Greece 122416 18037 70521 India 491475 56981 274027 Indonesia 34007 6870 17120 Iran 118704 26487 53962 Italy 65569 8977 43803 Jordan 35396 7991 19369 Lebanon 44153 9610 23394 Libya 162721 43093 69437 Nigeria 70635 7873 38700 Pakistan 289643 25982 213636 Saudi Arabia 39556 12452 13670 Sudan 28680 6733 13654 Syria 212815 63538 79577 Tunisia 99000 35218 27233 Yemen 70583 29140 16712 • 19 countries • Events published 1/1/2011–7/10/2013 • Millions of reports of protests! • Train (+ cross-‐val) on 1/1/2011–3/5/2013 • Test on 3/6/2013–7/10/2013
- 19. • Clustering of country in ques0on (hierarchical clustering on Kolmogorov distance) • Same-‐day mainstream reports of protests over past 10 days • Level of violence language in those • Forward-‐looking events reported on Twi<er about days in ques0on posted over past 10 days • Forward-‐looking events reported by mainstream sources about days in ques0on posted over past 10 days Features for Random Forest To determine whether a future 0me will have significant protests, base our predic0on on…
- 20. Results 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% FPR 25% 50% 75% 100% TPR 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% FPR 25% 50% 75% 100% TPR Locale-‐rela0ve scale of significance Global absolute scale of significance (23% of posi0ve training instances in Egypt)
- 21. Case Study: 2013 Egyp0an Coup • 6/30/13: Anniversary of Morsi’s rule – Protests broadly an0cipated (even Kerry made a statement asking for calm) • 6/28-‐6/29/13: Unan0cipated warm-‐up protests • 7/3/13 and onward: Morsi removed from power, nonstop protes0ng and violence persists for weeks to come
- 22. 6ê17 – 6ê19 6ê18 – 6ê20 6ê19 – 6ê21 6ê20 – 6ê22 6ê21 – 6ê23 6ê22 – 6ê24 6ê23 – 6ê25 6ê24 – 6ê26 6ê25 – 6ê27 6ê26 – 6ê28 6ê27 – 6ê29 6ê28 – 6ê30 6ê29 – 7ê1 6ê30 – 7ê2 7ê1 – 7ê3 7ê2 – 7ê4 7ê3 – 7ê5 7ê4 – 7ê6 7ê5 – 7ê7 7ê6 – 7ê8 7ê7 – 7ê9 7ê8 – 7ê10 765432 July 13029282726252423222120191817 June 16Datesofprotestsinquestion Date prediction is made
- 23. A more recent predic0on
- 24. From a March 26 email “Right now I think we can likely expect something to happen in Egypt on Friday. There've been protests so far … but these have been at Egypt's "baseline" levels so far. With tensions rising and calls on twi.er from the pro-‐ Brotherhood side as well as counter calls for celebratory demonstra0ons from the pro-‐Sisi side ci0ng Tamarod … This will bubble up further throughout today and likely erupt on Friday.” 43 HOURS LATER: (The previous big coverage, a week before, about unrest in Egypt included a single death. I.e., this is significant.) A more recent predic0on
- 25. From a March 26 email “Right now I think we can likely expect something to happen in Egypt on Friday. There've been protests so far … but these have been at Egypt's "baseline" levels so far. With tensions rising and calls on twi.er from the pro-‐ Brotherhood side as well as counter calls for celebratory demonstra0ons from the pro-‐Sisi side ci0ng Tamarod … This will bubble up further throughout today and likely erupt on Friday.” Facts men0oned in AP release at a later 0me • Track those social media trends that will lead to a significant event to be.er understand what’s going on and what’s going to go on and why A more recent predic0on
- 26. A more recent predic0on
- 27. From an April 1 email “… upcoming protest in Bahrain. The tweets behind that predic0on reveal it to be an0-‐government demonstra0ons planned to start ahead of the upcoming F1 Grand Prix.” 56 HOURS LATER: A more recent predic0on
- 28. More Results: Predic0ng Hack0vist Cyber A.acks Targets BAC Perpetrators BAC Israel 68.9% Anonymous 70.3% Germany 65.4% AnonGhost 70.8% South Korea 63.1% LulzSec 60.6% United Kingdom 65.5% Guccifer 66.7% By targets or perpetrator.
- 29. THANK YOU! QUESTIONS? Nathan Kallus www.nathankallus.com kallus@mit.edu