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Webinar on the Markets for Silver Inks and
           Pastes, 2012-2019
               January 5th, 2012
             NanoMarkets, LC




              © 2012 NanoMarkets, LC
                                       www.nanomarkets.net
2



                 About NanoMarkets LC
• NanoMarkets provides industry analysis of emerging markets in energy
  and electronics enabled by new developments in materials science. We
  have been covering conventional silver and nanosilver inks and pastes
  markets for more than five years.
• Our work includes market, company and technology analysis, market
  forecasting and due diligence. NanoMarkets provides forecasts of silver
  inks and pastes in thick film electronics, PV, and emerging printed
  electronics (displays, etc.).
• NanoMarkets’ offerings include reports, custom consulting,
  seminars/webinars and in-house training. NanoMarkets is based in U.S.,
  with extensive contacts all over the world.




                                © NanoMarkets LC                www.nanomarkets.net
3



    NanoMarkets’ Recent Reports Related to Silver

•   Silver Inks and Pastes 2012
•   Nanometals 2012
•   Silver Powders and Flakes 2011
•   Nanosilver Markets 2011
•   Markets for Silver-Based Transparent Conductors 2011
•   Silver in Photovoltaics 2010
•   Printed Gold: Gold Ink and Paste Markets 2011




                           © NanoMarkets LC            www.nanomarkets.net
4


        Silver’s Big Problem…Economics

How can suppliers of printable silver products maintain margins
and market share in a world of persistently high silver prices,
with no end in sight?
   •Investment offtake
   •Q411 decline not sustainable
Meanwhile, lingering sluggishness in the global economy keeps
industrial demand for silver lower than it might otherwise be

                      The Bottom Line:
  NanoMarkets predicts a decline in global silver inks and paste
                        consumption…


                               © NanoMarkets LC         www.nanomarkets.net
5

  Silver Inks and Pastes 2012-2019 By Application
                     ($ Millions)
$7.6 B
    8000                                                                 $6.8 B
    7000
                                                                            Traditional Thick Film
    6000
                                                                            Sensors
    5000                                                                    RFIDs
                                                                            OLED Lighting
    4000
                                                                            PDPs
    3000                                                                    Photovoltaics

    2000
                                                                             Two applications
    1000
                                                                             dominate the
         0                                                                   market!
             2012   2013   2014   2015   2016      2017    2018   2019
                                     Year


                                            © NanoMarkets LC                           www.nanomarkets.net
6
             Average Ink and Paste Prices
                  ($/Troy Oz Silver)
                ~12x
500
450
400
350
300
250                                                                          ~3x
200           ~2.4x
150                                                                          ~1.7x
100
 50
  0
      2012    2013     2014       2015          2016   2017    2018   2019
                                         Year
                 Average Silver Commodity Price
                 Average Conventional Silver Ink/Paste Price
                 Average Nanosilver Ink/Paste Price



                                 © NanoMarkets LC                        www.nanomarkets.net
7



 A Brief History of the Silver Pastes Market

First, a look back at the silver inks and pastes market:

This industry has had a very good run over the last 50 years
• Post WWII electronics
• Computer revolution
• c-Si PV




                             © NanoMarkets LC              www.nanomarkets.net
8

   Why Do We Predict a Decline in the Silver Inks
              and Pastes Market?
• The two big applications still dominate the market, but will face difficulty
  in the next couple of years
   – Problems in the PV sector
   – Thick film are cost sensitive
   – PDPs are in decline
• Alternatives may now have a sustained opportunity to thrive
   – High silver prices encourages more substitution away from silver
   – Is it finally time for alternatives (copper, aluminum, others) to make a
      dent?
And…
• Growth in emerging opportunities not fast enough to make up for losses in
  PV market or lack of real growth in thick film



                                  © NanoMarkets LC                  www.nanomarkets.net
9


         Some Good News Amidst the Gloom
• There is no reasonable substitute for silver at this time in most
  applications
• Legacy applications (printed circuitry, MS, PCB) are growing along
  with global industrialization
• Emerging electronics applications
   – Sensors, especially in (bio)medical and ubiquitous electronics
   – Flexible electronics and displays
       • …deserves some skepticism, but may turn into an
         opportunity
       • Samsung announced production in 2012 of flexible displays




                             © NanoMarkets LC               www.nanomarkets.net
10


The Market for Silver Inks and Pastes in PV
• 2010 was a banner year, with nearly 1.5x growth over prior year
   – Not sustainable
   – 2011 and 2012 back down to ~15 % growth
   – Recent predictions suggest even lower growth rates, < 8%

• Why?
   – Gradual shift in relative share of TFPV compared to c-Si PV
   – Shift in silver consumption in c-Si PV back electrodes and for tabbing
   – Government support is waning




                                 © NanoMarkets LC                   www.nanomarkets.net
11

                                          Silver Inks and Paste in PV by
                                              Application 2012-2019
                     4500                                                            200


                     4000                                                            180




                                                                                           Addressable Market (Millions m2)
                                                                                     160
                     3500

                                                                                     140
Value ($ Millions)




                     3000
                                                                                     120
                     2500                                                                                                     Value of Printed Silver in TFPV
                                                                                     100
                     2000                                                                                                     Value of Printed Silver in c-Si PV
                                                                                     80                                       c-Si Addressable Market
                     1500
                                                                                     60                                       TFPV Addressable Market
                     1000
                                                                                     40

                     500                                                             20

                       0                                                             0
                            2012   2013    2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019
                                                     Year



                                                                © NanoMarkets LC                                                             www.nanomarkets.net
12

  Legacy Applications: Thick-Film Printed
                Electronics
The news is not all bad…
• Global industrialization
• Miniaturization trend
• Few (good) alternatives to silver available




                            © NanoMarkets LC    www.nanomarkets.net
13



    What Kinds of Silver Alternatives Exist?
• Conventional carbon pastes
• Copper                                          None of these are very
    – Etched                                      convincing alternatives,
                                                unless major improvements
    – Printable Cu
                                                are made in performance…
•   Aluminum
•   Silver-coated metals, etc.                  For example, we believe that
                                                   the alternative printable
•   Carbon nanomaterials                          conductive materials WILL
•   Conductive polymers                         penetrate somewhat, but will
                                                likely maximize at around 8 –
•   Nanosilver?                                 10% of the thick film market.




                             © NanoMarkets LC                         www.nanomarkets.net
14



            Can Ag Really Be Replaced?
• Silver is the most conductive metal
• It is tempting to offer drop-in replacements as a way to enter
  a market, but how often does this work?
• Costs – and risks – of switching an existing production line
  over to a new technology are often understated.
   – Barriers to entry are high
   – Markets are conservative
   – Existing materials entrenched




                              © NanoMarkets LC          www.nanomarkets.net
15

              Strategies for Silver Paste
              Alternatives to Gain Entry
Offer products for new kinds of products and
applications
• Opportunities for:
   – Inks and pastes that enable miniaturization
   – New inks and pastes for markets not fully formed yet
   – Transparent conductors based on Ag
• But keep an eye on the competition:
   – Photonically cured Cu and similar
   – CNTs and graphene


                         © NanoMarkets LC            www.nanomarkets.net
Will the Nanosilver Revolution Ever Happen?
                                                                                 16




• The bad news:
   – Economies of scale
   – Murky regulatory environment
   – Minimal market pull for printed electronics
• The good news:
   – Miniaturization of electronics
   – Sustained high silver prices might finally lead to a sustained
     opportunity for nanosilver products
   – There are clear opportunities for transparent nanosilver coatings that
     compete with ITO
       • Outside the scope of this report, but provide an outlet for
         development products and a revenue stream while printed
         electronics develops
       • Focus area of NanoMarkets; See other reports


                                © NanoMarkets LC                 www.nanomarkets.net
17


        Summary of the Opportunities
• Pastes and inks that reduce costs are in demand, and are
  necessary to keep out the competition
• Inks and pastes that enable higher resolution printing and
  miniaturization
• The PV market is looking especially troublesome in the
  coming years, so diversification into other markets will be
  necessary
   – New applications in displays (?) and lighting
   – Sensors and related
• These opportunities will take a rethinking of the marketing
  and business development strategies…


                          © NanoMarkets LC             www.nanomarkets.net
18



                               Jill Simpson
Jill C. Simpson is a Senior Analyst at NanoMarkets. Simpson’s background is in
business development, technical marketing, and commercialization of novel products
in electronic materials, with hands-on experience in the scale up and production of
inherently conductive polymers, coatings and inks, and flexible inorganic EL devices.
She has worked in sales and business development at a major global chemical and
metals firm, and, more recently, in various management roles at a startup electronic
materials and technology development firm.
Simpson’s academic background is as a synthetic organic chemist. She has a Ph.D. in
Chemistry from Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, as well as a bachelor’s
degree in chemistry and a minor in international relations from Cornell University. She
has published research on inherently conductive polymers and on the synthesis of
conformationally-restricted hormone analogs for the investigation of molecular
modeling.

jill.s@nanomarkets.net



                                     © NanoMarkets LC                      www.nanomarkets.net
19



                        Contact


NanoMarkets
sales@nanomarkets.net
www.nanomarkets.net
(804) 270-1718




                        © NanoMarkets LC   www.nanomarkets.net

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Silver Inks Webinarfinal

  • 1. Webinar on the Markets for Silver Inks and Pastes, 2012-2019 January 5th, 2012 NanoMarkets, LC © 2012 NanoMarkets, LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 2. 2 About NanoMarkets LC • NanoMarkets provides industry analysis of emerging markets in energy and electronics enabled by new developments in materials science. We have been covering conventional silver and nanosilver inks and pastes markets for more than five years. • Our work includes market, company and technology analysis, market forecasting and due diligence. NanoMarkets provides forecasts of silver inks and pastes in thick film electronics, PV, and emerging printed electronics (displays, etc.). • NanoMarkets’ offerings include reports, custom consulting, seminars/webinars and in-house training. NanoMarkets is based in U.S., with extensive contacts all over the world. © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 3. 3 NanoMarkets’ Recent Reports Related to Silver • Silver Inks and Pastes 2012 • Nanometals 2012 • Silver Powders and Flakes 2011 • Nanosilver Markets 2011 • Markets for Silver-Based Transparent Conductors 2011 • Silver in Photovoltaics 2010 • Printed Gold: Gold Ink and Paste Markets 2011 © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 4. 4 Silver’s Big Problem…Economics How can suppliers of printable silver products maintain margins and market share in a world of persistently high silver prices, with no end in sight? •Investment offtake •Q411 decline not sustainable Meanwhile, lingering sluggishness in the global economy keeps industrial demand for silver lower than it might otherwise be The Bottom Line: NanoMarkets predicts a decline in global silver inks and paste consumption… © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 5. 5 Silver Inks and Pastes 2012-2019 By Application ($ Millions) $7.6 B 8000 $6.8 B 7000 Traditional Thick Film 6000 Sensors 5000 RFIDs OLED Lighting 4000 PDPs 3000 Photovoltaics 2000 Two applications 1000 dominate the 0 market! 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 6. 6 Average Ink and Paste Prices ($/Troy Oz Silver) ~12x 500 450 400 350 300 250 ~3x 200 ~2.4x 150 ~1.7x 100 50 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year Average Silver Commodity Price Average Conventional Silver Ink/Paste Price Average Nanosilver Ink/Paste Price © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 7. 7 A Brief History of the Silver Pastes Market First, a look back at the silver inks and pastes market: This industry has had a very good run over the last 50 years • Post WWII electronics • Computer revolution • c-Si PV © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 8. 8 Why Do We Predict a Decline in the Silver Inks and Pastes Market? • The two big applications still dominate the market, but will face difficulty in the next couple of years – Problems in the PV sector – Thick film are cost sensitive – PDPs are in decline • Alternatives may now have a sustained opportunity to thrive – High silver prices encourages more substitution away from silver – Is it finally time for alternatives (copper, aluminum, others) to make a dent? And… • Growth in emerging opportunities not fast enough to make up for losses in PV market or lack of real growth in thick film © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 9. 9 Some Good News Amidst the Gloom • There is no reasonable substitute for silver at this time in most applications • Legacy applications (printed circuitry, MS, PCB) are growing along with global industrialization • Emerging electronics applications – Sensors, especially in (bio)medical and ubiquitous electronics – Flexible electronics and displays • …deserves some skepticism, but may turn into an opportunity • Samsung announced production in 2012 of flexible displays © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 10. 10 The Market for Silver Inks and Pastes in PV • 2010 was a banner year, with nearly 1.5x growth over prior year – Not sustainable – 2011 and 2012 back down to ~15 % growth – Recent predictions suggest even lower growth rates, < 8% • Why? – Gradual shift in relative share of TFPV compared to c-Si PV – Shift in silver consumption in c-Si PV back electrodes and for tabbing – Government support is waning © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 11. 11 Silver Inks and Paste in PV by Application 2012-2019 4500 200 4000 180 Addressable Market (Millions m2) 160 3500 140 Value ($ Millions) 3000 120 2500 Value of Printed Silver in TFPV 100 2000 Value of Printed Silver in c-Si PV 80 c-Si Addressable Market 1500 60 TFPV Addressable Market 1000 40 500 20 0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 12. 12 Legacy Applications: Thick-Film Printed Electronics The news is not all bad… • Global industrialization • Miniaturization trend • Few (good) alternatives to silver available © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 13. 13 What Kinds of Silver Alternatives Exist? • Conventional carbon pastes • Copper None of these are very – Etched convincing alternatives, unless major improvements – Printable Cu are made in performance… • Aluminum • Silver-coated metals, etc. For example, we believe that the alternative printable • Carbon nanomaterials conductive materials WILL • Conductive polymers penetrate somewhat, but will likely maximize at around 8 – • Nanosilver? 10% of the thick film market. © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 14. 14 Can Ag Really Be Replaced? • Silver is the most conductive metal • It is tempting to offer drop-in replacements as a way to enter a market, but how often does this work? • Costs – and risks – of switching an existing production line over to a new technology are often understated. – Barriers to entry are high – Markets are conservative – Existing materials entrenched © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 15. 15 Strategies for Silver Paste Alternatives to Gain Entry Offer products for new kinds of products and applications • Opportunities for: – Inks and pastes that enable miniaturization – New inks and pastes for markets not fully formed yet – Transparent conductors based on Ag • But keep an eye on the competition: – Photonically cured Cu and similar – CNTs and graphene © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 16. Will the Nanosilver Revolution Ever Happen? 16 • The bad news: – Economies of scale – Murky regulatory environment – Minimal market pull for printed electronics • The good news: – Miniaturization of electronics – Sustained high silver prices might finally lead to a sustained opportunity for nanosilver products – There are clear opportunities for transparent nanosilver coatings that compete with ITO • Outside the scope of this report, but provide an outlet for development products and a revenue stream while printed electronics develops • Focus area of NanoMarkets; See other reports © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 17. 17 Summary of the Opportunities • Pastes and inks that reduce costs are in demand, and are necessary to keep out the competition • Inks and pastes that enable higher resolution printing and miniaturization • The PV market is looking especially troublesome in the coming years, so diversification into other markets will be necessary – New applications in displays (?) and lighting – Sensors and related • These opportunities will take a rethinking of the marketing and business development strategies… © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 18. 18 Jill Simpson Jill C. Simpson is a Senior Analyst at NanoMarkets. Simpson’s background is in business development, technical marketing, and commercialization of novel products in electronic materials, with hands-on experience in the scale up and production of inherently conductive polymers, coatings and inks, and flexible inorganic EL devices. She has worked in sales and business development at a major global chemical and metals firm, and, more recently, in various management roles at a startup electronic materials and technology development firm. Simpson’s academic background is as a synthetic organic chemist. She has a Ph.D. in Chemistry from Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, as well as a bachelor’s degree in chemistry and a minor in international relations from Cornell University. She has published research on inherently conductive polymers and on the synthesis of conformationally-restricted hormone analogs for the investigation of molecular modeling. jill.s@nanomarkets.net © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net
  • 19. 19 Contact NanoMarkets sales@nanomarkets.net www.nanomarkets.net (804) 270-1718 © NanoMarkets LC www.nanomarkets.net