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AIRCRAFT LEASING
A VISION FOR THE NEXT TWENTY
YEARS
31 May 2010
By:
Mr. Nader N. I. Nakhla, CFS, CMI
PALMTREE Funding
1240 N.E. 143rd Street
Suite 200
Seattle, WA 98125
U.S.A.
206-365-6002 Direct
206-365-6200 FAX
palmtree@scn.org
www.palmtree.bloombiz.com
© Copyright 2010, Nader N. I. Nakhla, PALMTREE Funding
All Rights Reserved
Capitalization & Formation
Years 1 - 4
Year 1
* Commitment of $10 Billion (USD), and 10 Years:
Option #1: $3 Billion per Year for Years 1, 2 & 3,
then $1 Billion Year 4
Option #2: $2.5 Billion per Year, over Years 1 - 4
Option #3: $2 Billion per Year, over Years 1 - 5
* Exclusive Two Year Agreement w/ BOEING & BOEING
Capital For New 737's
Year 3
* Non-Exclusive Agreement w/ AIRBUS & "AIRBUS Capital"
For New A-320's
Year 4
* Introduce Major Insurance Companies [and Pension Funds]
as Equity Investors & Buyers of Inventory
and/or Depreciation,
Optional: Securitize Portfolio, during Top of Cycle,
for Sale on Wall Street
and/or Lloyd's of London
Mitigation of Risk
* Individual Airline Risk:
Hedge using Options against Airline Shares
* Industry Economic Risk:
Hedge using Options against Industry ETFs
* Industry Fuel Price Risk:
Hedge using Options against Fuel Futures Contracts
* Interest Rate Risk:
Hedge using Options against Pertinent Interest Rate
Futures Contract
* Debt Risk:
This is the Ultimate Risk,
Especially in an environment of High Debt
around the World
Option #1:
Zero Debt, for First $10 Billion,
Supplemented with a Line of Credit
to Smooth Out Purchasing Power
during Years of Capitalization;
Maximum LTV of 20 to 40%
Option #2:
Medium Debt, for First $10 Billion,
Supplemented with a Line of Credit;
Maximum LTV of 40 to 60%
* “Buy Low & Sell High” Risk:
Timing the Low, and the High, of the Aircraft Market,
at least within 20% of the Two Extremes
Expansion
Years 5 - 10
Year 5
* Introduce Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF)
as Portfolio Clients & Buyers of Inventory
Reference: http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund/qatar.php
Year 6
* Introduce Hedge Funds
as Portfolio Clients & Buyers of Inventory
Year 7
* Introduce Mutual Funds
as Portfolio Clients & Buyers of Inventory
Growth & [Optional] Recovery
of Capital + Profits
Years 11 - 15
Year 11 - 15
* Optional: QIA Initiates Recovery of Capital & Profits,
along the same Schedule used for Capitalization Process
[Optional]
IPO & Harvest
Years 16 to 19
Year 16 - 19
* Initiate the IPO Process [Optional]
Year 20
* Nader Retires [Buy Out]
PROJECTIONS
Growth
Years 1 Through 20:
9%, 12%, 15%, 20% Return
For Each 5 Year Increment
Year 1
$2 Billion, Capitalization Option # 3
Year 5
$16 Billion (16,123,917,039.60) + $3 Billion/Yr.
Year 10
$49.5 Billion (49,543,034,060.80) + $5 Billion/Yr.
Year 15
$138.3 Billion (138,330,872,968.75) +8 Billion/Yr.
Year 20
$415.5 Billion (415,574,016,000.00) + 10 Billion/Yr.
Maturity
Years 21 Through 60
25% + Return
For Each 5 Year Increment
Year 25 $1,370.5 Billion (1,370,593,261,718.75) + 10 Billion/Yr.
Year 30 $4,285.0 Billion (4,285,021,972,656.25) + 10 Billion/Yr.
Year 35 $13,179.3 Billion (13,179,370,117,187.50) + 10 Billion/Yr.
Year 40 $40,322.6 Billion (40,322,619,628,906.25) + 10 Billion/Yr.
Year 45 $123,157.3 Billion (123,157,397,460,937.50) + 10 Billion/Yr.
Year 50 $375,948.8 Billion (375,948,840,332,031.25) + 10 Billion/Yr.
Year 55 $1,147,275.3 Billion (1,147,407,275,390,625.00) + 10 Billion/Yr.
Year 60 $3,501,711.4 Billion (3,501,711,474,609,374.50) + 10 Billion/Yr.

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AircraftLeasingVision_31May.cwk (WP)

  • 1. AIRCRAFT LEASING A VISION FOR THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS 31 May 2010 By: Mr. Nader N. I. Nakhla, CFS, CMI PALMTREE Funding 1240 N.E. 143rd Street Suite 200 Seattle, WA 98125 U.S.A. 206-365-6002 Direct 206-365-6200 FAX palmtree@scn.org www.palmtree.bloombiz.com © Copyright 2010, Nader N. I. Nakhla, PALMTREE Funding All Rights Reserved
  • 2. Capitalization & Formation Years 1 - 4 Year 1 * Commitment of $10 Billion (USD), and 10 Years: Option #1: $3 Billion per Year for Years 1, 2 & 3, then $1 Billion Year 4 Option #2: $2.5 Billion per Year, over Years 1 - 4 Option #3: $2 Billion per Year, over Years 1 - 5 * Exclusive Two Year Agreement w/ BOEING & BOEING Capital For New 737's Year 3 * Non-Exclusive Agreement w/ AIRBUS & "AIRBUS Capital" For New A-320's Year 4 * Introduce Major Insurance Companies [and Pension Funds] as Equity Investors & Buyers of Inventory and/or Depreciation, Optional: Securitize Portfolio, during Top of Cycle, for Sale on Wall Street and/or Lloyd's of London
  • 3. Mitigation of Risk * Individual Airline Risk: Hedge using Options against Airline Shares * Industry Economic Risk: Hedge using Options against Industry ETFs * Industry Fuel Price Risk: Hedge using Options against Fuel Futures Contracts * Interest Rate Risk: Hedge using Options against Pertinent Interest Rate Futures Contract * Debt Risk: This is the Ultimate Risk, Especially in an environment of High Debt around the World Option #1: Zero Debt, for First $10 Billion, Supplemented with a Line of Credit to Smooth Out Purchasing Power during Years of Capitalization; Maximum LTV of 20 to 40% Option #2: Medium Debt, for First $10 Billion, Supplemented with a Line of Credit; Maximum LTV of 40 to 60% * “Buy Low & Sell High” Risk: Timing the Low, and the High, of the Aircraft Market, at least within 20% of the Two Extremes
  • 4. Expansion Years 5 - 10 Year 5 * Introduce Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) as Portfolio Clients & Buyers of Inventory Reference: http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund/qatar.php Year 6 * Introduce Hedge Funds as Portfolio Clients & Buyers of Inventory Year 7 * Introduce Mutual Funds as Portfolio Clients & Buyers of Inventory
  • 5. Growth & [Optional] Recovery of Capital + Profits Years 11 - 15 Year 11 - 15 * Optional: QIA Initiates Recovery of Capital & Profits, along the same Schedule used for Capitalization Process [Optional] IPO & Harvest Years 16 to 19 Year 16 - 19 * Initiate the IPO Process [Optional] Year 20 * Nader Retires [Buy Out]
  • 6. PROJECTIONS Growth Years 1 Through 20: 9%, 12%, 15%, 20% Return For Each 5 Year Increment Year 1 $2 Billion, Capitalization Option # 3 Year 5 $16 Billion (16,123,917,039.60) + $3 Billion/Yr. Year 10 $49.5 Billion (49,543,034,060.80) + $5 Billion/Yr. Year 15 $138.3 Billion (138,330,872,968.75) +8 Billion/Yr. Year 20 $415.5 Billion (415,574,016,000.00) + 10 Billion/Yr. Maturity Years 21 Through 60 25% + Return For Each 5 Year Increment Year 25 $1,370.5 Billion (1,370,593,261,718.75) + 10 Billion/Yr. Year 30 $4,285.0 Billion (4,285,021,972,656.25) + 10 Billion/Yr. Year 35 $13,179.3 Billion (13,179,370,117,187.50) + 10 Billion/Yr. Year 40 $40,322.6 Billion (40,322,619,628,906.25) + 10 Billion/Yr. Year 45 $123,157.3 Billion (123,157,397,460,937.50) + 10 Billion/Yr. Year 50 $375,948.8 Billion (375,948,840,332,031.25) + 10 Billion/Yr. Year 55 $1,147,275.3 Billion (1,147,407,275,390,625.00) + 10 Billion/Yr. Year 60 $3,501,711.4 Billion (3,501,711,474,609,374.50) + 10 Billion/Yr.