1. Modelling and managing the water, energy and
food nexus in a changing Vietnam
Matteo Giuliani – Politecnico di Milano

2. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment
Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017
The IMRR Project factsheet
Integrated Management of the Red Thai Binh river system under change
OBJECTIVE
To develop and promote strategies for the sustainable management of the Red-Thai
Binh River System through coordinated decision-making and negotiation, supported
by modelling and optimization tools, and through capacity building of local authorities in
the water sector
Funding agency:
Italian Ministry of Foreign Affair
(International Cooperation)
Duration: 2012-2015
Budget: 1.7 M€
Partners: IWRP, Politecnico di Milano
PI: Prof. Soncini Sessa

3. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment
Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017
Capacity building
Students and research staff @POLIMI
3 PhD STUDENTS, 4 MSc STUDENTS, 1 Post Graduate research, 2 IWRP temporary visiting
researchers
Training courses
• Course on Criteria and indicators identification and validation, May 2013
• Workshop on the RRB integrated models, February 2014
• Workshop on water management policy design, February 2015
• Course on climate change impact assessment and adaptation, March 2015
• Course on Geportal and software, November 2015
• Residential school, March 2016

4. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment
Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017
Methodology: Integrated Water Resources
Management
Participatory and Integrated Planning
procedure
[Castelletti and Soncini-Sessa, 2006]
Actions: coordinated operation of the
reservoir network
Scenarios: current and future climate
and water demand

5. Water-energy-food nexus components

6. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment
Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017
Models
CATCHMENTS
MIKENam, Mike Basin,
HBV rainfall-runoff, TOPKAPI-ETH (Da
river only)
RESERVOIRS daily mass-balance
POWER PLANTS
with optimized turbines operations
FLOW ROUTING and DISTRIBUTION
Mike 11 + EMULATORS of the Delta
(water level in Hanoi, water volume in
irrigation canals, water deficit)
GEOMORPHOLOGY
2D mobile river bed model
HOA BINH
THAC BA
RESERVOIR (in operation)
POWER PLANT
RESERVOIR
(under construction)
VIET TRI
SON TAY
TUYEN QUANG
LO
NODE
UPSTREAM System
DELTA System
DA
a7
(THAO)
a9
(PHO DAY)
INFLOW
REFERENCE SECTION
TIDE
a8
(LO)
RED RIVER DELTA
SEA TIDE
a10
(THAI BINH)
PHA LAI
DUONG
HANOI
DAY
LAI CHAU
SON LA
a3
a2
a1
a4
TO BAN TRAC
HUOI QUANG
a5
a6

7. Pareto optimal policies over history (1990-2010)
× 10
4
0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
J (flood damages [-])
flood
J(hydropowerproduction[GWh/day])
hyd
18.5 1638.5
J (water deficit [m /s] )
supply 3 2
Compromise
Policy
PH
PS
PF
(a) System performance
× 10
4
0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
J (flood damages [-])
flood
J(hydropowerproduction[GWh/day])
hyd
18.5 1638.5
J (water deficit [m /s] )
supply 3 2
Compromise
Policy
PS
PF
storage[m3]
× 10
9
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Son La
storage[m3]
× 10
9
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Hoa Binh
storage[m3]
× 10
9
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
Tuyen Quang
M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A
PF
PH
PS
PF
PH
PS
PF
PH
PS
(b) Average storage trajectories
× 10
4
1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
ood damages [-])
18.5 1638.5
J (water deficit [m /s] )
supply 3 2
Hoa Binh
storage[m3]
× 10
9
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
Tuyen Quang
M J J A S O N D M J J A S O N DJ F M A
PF
PH
PS
PF
PH
PS

8. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment
Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017
Changing climate: standard scenario Q0
Delta T (°C)
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
Delta P (%)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Scenario Q0 (2040-2060) Scenario Q0 (2078-2098)
Scenario Q0 (2040-2060) Scenario Q0 (2078-2098)
0 100 200 30050
Km
0 100 200 30050
Km
0 100 200 30050
Km
0 100 200 30050
Km
HadCM3 - A1B

9. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment
Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017
Changing climate: perturbed physics ensemble
Delta T (°C)
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
Delta P (%)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Scenario Q10 (dry) Scenario Q11 (wet)
Scenario Q3 (small increase) Scenario Q13 (large increase)
0 100 200 30050
Km
0 100 200 30050
Km
0 100 200 30050
Km
0 100 200 30050
Km
HadCM3 - A1B

10. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment
Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017
Changing climate: projected streamflow
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Da
Streamflow[m
3
/s]
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Thao
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Lo
Streamflow[m
3
/s]
0
500
1000
1500
2000
History Q10
Q0
Q3
Q11 Q13
M J J A S O N DJ F M AM J J A S O N DJ F M A
M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A
Gam
monsoon periodmonsoon period
monsoon periodmonsoon period
History Q10
Q0
Q3
Q11 Q13
M J J A S O N DJ F M A J F M

11. Changing climate: policy performance under different
scenarios (no adaptation)
× 104
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
18.5 2312.1
history Q13Q0 Q10 Q3Q11
J (water deficit [m /s] )
supply 3 2
J (flood damages [-])
flood
J(hydropowerproduction[GWh/day])
hyd
flood damage increases
from 70% to 200%
water supply vulnerability
increases from 15% to
160%

12. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment
Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017
Not just climate change
SOFIA ROSS
Not just climate change
Earth system trends
Socio-economic trends
Source: International Geosphere and Biosphere programm

13. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment
Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017
Water demand projections
SOFIA ROSSI
28/04/2017
Scenario generation
Socio-economic scenarios
Global sampling of the water consumptions
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
Aquaculture
Industries
Urban-pop
Town-pop
Rural-pop
Cow
Pig
Poultry

14. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment
Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017
Water demand projections
SOFIA ROSSI
28/04/2017
Irrigation requirement
13 irrigation districts
9 meteorological stations
10 rainfall stations
SOFIA ROSSI
28/04/2017
Scenario generation
Socio-economic scenarios
Global sampling of the water consumptions
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
Aquaculture
Industries
Urban-pop
Town-pop
Rural-pop
Cow
Pig
Poultry
Agricultural demand changing with
climate

15. Water demand projections
SOFIA ROSSI
28/04/2017
Irrigation requirement
13 irrigation districts
9 meteorological stations
10 rainfall stations
Demand model
Non - Agricultural demand
WDNA = wcs x std
wcs = water consumption sector
(e.g. number of people)
Aquaculture
Industries
UrbanPop
TownPop
RuralPop
Cow
Pig
Poultry
Total
std = standard of water use
(e.g. liters/person)
SOFIA ROSSI
28/04/2017
Scenario generation
Socio-economic scenarios
Global sampling of the water consumptions
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
Aquaculture
Industries
Urban-pop
Town-pop
Rural-pop
Cow
Pig
Poultry
Non-agricultural demand
changing with society
Agricultural demand changing with
climate

16. Changing climate: policy performance under different
scenarios (no adaptation)
× 104
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
18.5 2312.1
history Q13Q0 Q10 Q3Q11
J (water deficit [m /s] )
supply 3 2
J (flood damages [-])
flood
J(hydropowerproduction[GWh/day])
hyd
flood damage increases
from 70% to 200%
water supply vulnerability
increases from 15% to
160%

17. Changing society: policy performance under different
scenarios of water demand (no adaptation)
× 104
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
18.5 2312.1
history Q13Q0 Q10 Q3Q11
J (water deficit [m /s] )
supply 3 2
J (flood damages [-])
flood
J(hydropowerproduction[GWh/day])
hyd
flood damage increases
from 70% to 200%
water supply vulnerability
increases from 15% to
160%
water supply
vulnerability increases
up to 400%

18. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment
Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017
Changing climate: fully adapted policies (driest)
58
60
62
64
ion[GWh/day])
× 104
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
18.5 2448.1
history
1990-2010
simulation
2078-2098
simulation
2040-2060
adaptation
2078-2098
J (water deficit [m /s] )
supply 3 2
J (flood damages [-])
flood
J(hydropowerproduction[GWh/day])
hyd
(a) Scenario Q10
(b) Scenario Q11
CPh
CPQ10M
CPQ10L
ACPQ10
ACPQ11
CPh
CPQ11L
storage[m3]
× 10
9
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Son La
storage[m3]
× 10
9
5
6
7
8
9
10
Hoa Binh
storage[m3]
× 10
9
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
Tuyen Quang
M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A
CP
h
ACP
(a) Scenario Q10
CP
h
ACP
CP
h
ACP

19. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment
Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017
Changing climate: fully adapted policies (wettest)
× 104
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
J (flood damages [-])
flood
J(hydropowerproduction[GWh/day])
hyd
17.6 2312.2
history
1990-2010
simulation
2078-2098
simulation
2040-2060
adaptation
2078-2098
J (water deficit [m /s] )
supply 3 2
J (flood damages [-])
flood
(b) Scenario Q11
ACPQ11
CPh
CPQ11M
CPQ11L
storage[m3]
× 10
9
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Son La
storage[m3]
× 10
9
5
6
7
8
9
10
Hoa Binh
storage[m3]
× 10
9
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
Tuyen Quang
storage[m3]
× 10
9
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Son La
storage[m3]
× 10
9
5
6
7
8
9
10
Hoa Binh
storage[m3]
× 10
9
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
Tuyen Quang
M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A
M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A
CP
h
ACP
(a) Scenario Q10
(b) Scenario Q11
CP
h
ACP
CP
h
ACP
CP
h
ACP
CP
h
ACP
CP
h
ACP

20. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment
Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017
Take home messages
• Exploration of tradeoff across water-energy-food nexus components
• Climate is changing, but society too
• Reservoirs’ operations offer adaptive capacity

21. Matteo Giuliani
matteo.giuliani@polimi.it
www.nrm.deib.polimi.it