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Modelling and managing the water, energy and food nexus in a changing Vietnam

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Presentation given at the Italy-Vietnam workshop "Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment"

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Modelling and managing the water, energy and food nexus in a changing Vietnam

  1. 1. Modelling and managing the water, energy and food nexus in a changing Vietnam Matteo Giuliani – Politecnico di Milano
  2. 2. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017 The IMRR Project factsheet Integrated Management of the Red Thai Binh river system under change OBJECTIVE To develop and promote strategies for the sustainable management of the Red-Thai Binh River System through coordinated decision-making and negotiation, supported by modelling and optimization tools, and through capacity building of local authorities in the water sector Funding agency: Italian Ministry of Foreign Affair (International Cooperation) Duration: 2012-2015 Budget: 1.7 M€ Partners: IWRP, Politecnico di Milano PI: Prof. Soncini Sessa
  3. 3. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017 Capacity building Students and research staff @POLIMI 3 PhD STUDENTS, 4 MSc STUDENTS, 1 Post Graduate research, 2 IWRP temporary visiting researchers Training courses • Course on Criteria and indicators identification and validation, May 2013 • Workshop on the RRB integrated models, February 2014 • Workshop on water management policy design, February 2015 • Course on climate change impact assessment and adaptation, March 2015 • Course on Geportal and software, November 2015 • Residential school, March 2016
  4. 4. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017 Methodology: Integrated Water Resources Management Participatory and Integrated Planning procedure [Castelletti and Soncini-Sessa, 2006] Actions: coordinated operation of the reservoir network Scenarios: current and future climate and water demand
  5. 5. Water-energy-food nexus components
  6. 6. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017 Models CATCHMENTS MIKENam, Mike Basin, HBV rainfall-runoff, TOPKAPI-ETH (Da river only) RESERVOIRS daily mass-balance POWER PLANTS with optimized turbines operations FLOW ROUTING and DISTRIBUTION Mike 11 + EMULATORS of the Delta (water level in Hanoi, water volume in irrigation canals, water deficit) GEOMORPHOLOGY 2D mobile river bed model HOA BINH THAC BA RESERVOIR (in operation) POWER PLANT RESERVOIR (under construction) VIET TRI SON TAY TUYEN QUANG LO NODE UPSTREAM System DELTA System DA a7 (THAO) a9 (PHO DAY) INFLOW REFERENCE SECTION TIDE a8 (LO) RED RIVER DELTA SEA TIDE a10 (THAI BINH) PHA LAI DUONG HANOI DAY LAI CHAU SON LA a3 a2 a1 a4 TO BAN TRAC HUOI QUANG a5 a6
  7. 7. Pareto optimal policies over history (1990-2010) × 10 4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 J (flood damages [-]) flood J(hydropowerproduction[GWh/day]) hyd 18.5 1638.5 J (water deficit [m /s] ) supply 3 2 Compromise Policy PH PS PF (a) System performance × 10 4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 J (flood damages [-]) flood J(hydropowerproduction[GWh/day]) hyd 18.5 1638.5 J (water deficit [m /s] ) supply 3 2 Compromise Policy PS PF storage[m3] × 10 9 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Son La storage[m3] × 10 9 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Hoa Binh storage[m3] × 10 9 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 Tuyen Quang M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A PF PH PS PF PH PS PF PH PS (b) Average storage trajectories × 10 4 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 ood damages [-]) 18.5 1638.5 J (water deficit [m /s] ) supply 3 2 Hoa Binh storage[m3] × 10 9 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 Tuyen Quang M J J A S O N D M J J A S O N DJ F M A PF PH PS PF PH PS
  8. 8. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017 Changing climate: standard scenario Q0 Delta T (°C) 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 Delta P (%) -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Scenario Q0 (2040-2060) Scenario Q0 (2078-2098) Scenario Q0 (2040-2060) Scenario Q0 (2078-2098) 0 100 200 30050 Km 0 100 200 30050 Km 0 100 200 30050 Km 0 100 200 30050 Km HadCM3 - A1B
  9. 9. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017 Changing climate: perturbed physics ensemble Delta T (°C) 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Delta P (%) -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Scenario Q10 (dry) Scenario Q11 (wet) Scenario Q3 (small increase) Scenario Q13 (large increase) 0 100 200 30050 Km 0 100 200 30050 Km 0 100 200 30050 Km 0 100 200 30050 Km HadCM3 - A1B
  10. 10. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017 Changing climate: projected streamflow 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Da Streamflow[m 3 /s] 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Thao 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Lo Streamflow[m 3 /s] 0 500 1000 1500 2000 History Q10 Q0 Q3 Q11 Q13 M J J A S O N DJ F M AM J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A Gam monsoon periodmonsoon period monsoon periodmonsoon period History Q10 Q0 Q3 Q11 Q13 M J J A S O N DJ F M A J F M
  11. 11. Changing climate: policy performance under different scenarios (no adaptation) × 104 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 18.5 2312.1 history Q13Q0 Q10 Q3Q11 J (water deficit [m /s] ) supply 3 2 J (flood damages [-]) flood J(hydropowerproduction[GWh/day]) hyd flood damage increases from 70% to 200% water supply vulnerability increases from 15% to 160%
  12. 12. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017 Not just climate change SOFIA ROSS Not just climate change Earth system trends Socio-economic trends Source: International Geosphere and Biosphere programm
  13. 13. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017 Water demand projections SOFIA ROSSI 28/04/2017 Scenario generation Socio-economic scenarios Global sampling of the water consumptions -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% Aquaculture Industries Urban-pop Town-pop Rural-pop Cow Pig Poultry
  14. 14. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017 Water demand projections SOFIA ROSSI 28/04/2017 Irrigation requirement 13 irrigation districts 9 meteorological stations 10 rainfall stations SOFIA ROSSI 28/04/2017 Scenario generation Socio-economic scenarios Global sampling of the water consumptions -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% Aquaculture Industries Urban-pop Town-pop Rural-pop Cow Pig Poultry Agricultural demand changing with climate
  15. 15. Water demand projections SOFIA ROSSI 28/04/2017 Irrigation requirement 13 irrigation districts 9 meteorological stations 10 rainfall stations Demand model Non - Agricultural demand WDNA = wcs x std wcs = water consumption sector (e.g. number of people) Aquaculture Industries UrbanPop TownPop RuralPop Cow Pig Poultry Total std = standard of water use (e.g. liters/person) SOFIA ROSSI 28/04/2017 Scenario generation Socio-economic scenarios Global sampling of the water consumptions -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% Aquaculture Industries Urban-pop Town-pop Rural-pop Cow Pig Poultry Non-agricultural demand changing with society Agricultural demand changing with climate
  16. 16. Changing climate: policy performance under different scenarios (no adaptation) × 104 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 18.5 2312.1 history Q13Q0 Q10 Q3Q11 J (water deficit [m /s] ) supply 3 2 J (flood damages [-]) flood J(hydropowerproduction[GWh/day]) hyd flood damage increases from 70% to 200% water supply vulnerability increases from 15% to 160%
  17. 17. Changing society: policy performance under different scenarios of water demand (no adaptation) × 104 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 18.5 2312.1 history Q13Q0 Q10 Q3Q11 J (water deficit [m /s] ) supply 3 2 J (flood damages [-]) flood J(hydropowerproduction[GWh/day]) hyd flood damage increases from 70% to 200% water supply vulnerability increases from 15% to 160% water supply vulnerability increases up to 400%
  18. 18. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017 Changing climate: fully adapted policies (driest) 58 60 62 64 ion[GWh/day]) × 104 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 18.5 2448.1 history 1990-2010 simulation 2078-2098 simulation 2040-2060 adaptation 2078-2098 J (water deficit [m /s] ) supply 3 2 J (flood damages [-]) flood J(hydropowerproduction[GWh/day]) hyd (a) Scenario Q10 (b) Scenario Q11 CPh CPQ10M CPQ10L ACPQ10 ACPQ11 CPh CPQ11L storage[m3] × 10 9 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Son La storage[m3] × 10 9 5 6 7 8 9 10 Hoa Binh storage[m3] × 10 9 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 Tuyen Quang M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A CP h ACP (a) Scenario Q10 CP h ACP CP h ACP
  19. 19. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017 Changing climate: fully adapted policies (wettest) × 104 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 J (flood damages [-]) flood J(hydropowerproduction[GWh/day]) hyd 17.6 2312.2 history 1990-2010 simulation 2078-2098 simulation 2040-2060 adaptation 2078-2098 J (water deficit [m /s] ) supply 3 2 J (flood damages [-]) flood (b) Scenario Q11 ACPQ11 CPh CPQ11M CPQ11L storage[m3] × 10 9 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Son La storage[m3] × 10 9 5 6 7 8 9 10 Hoa Binh storage[m3] × 10 9 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 Tuyen Quang storage[m3] × 10 9 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Son La storage[m3] × 10 9 5 6 7 8 9 10 Hoa Binh storage[m3] × 10 9 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 Tuyen Quang M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A CP h ACP (a) Scenario Q10 (b) Scenario Q11 CP h ACP CP h ACP CP h ACP CP h ACP CP h ACP
  20. 20. Towards a global approach to water issues: management-monitoring-treatment Ho Chi Minh City – October 13, 2017 Take home messages • Exploration of tradeoff across water-energy-food nexus components • Climate is changing, but society too • Reservoirs’ operations offer adaptive capacity
  21. 21. Matteo Giuliani matteo.giuliani@polimi.it www.nrm.deib.polimi.it

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