Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Lakestar - NOAH15 Berlin

4,237 views

Published on

Lakestar Keynote - Keynote by Dr. Klaus Hommels, CEO of Lakestar at the NOAH 2015 Conference in Berlin, Tempodrom on the 9th of June 2015.

Published in: Economy & Finance

Lakestar - NOAH15 Berlin

  1. 1. L A K E S T A R UPDATE ON THE ECOSYSTEM BERLIN, JUNE 2015
  2. 2. SAVE THE DATE GET YOUR TICKET NOW! www.noah-conference.com/request-invitation Old Billingsgate, London Tempodrom, Berlin 12-13 NOV2015 8 - 9 JUN2016
  3. 3. L A K E S T A R WORLDWIDE SURVEY ON THE ECOSYSTEM 2 ONLY ONE QUESTION
  4. 4. L A K E S T A R WORLDWIDE SURVEY ON THE ECOSYSTEM 3 “WOULD YOU PLEASE GIVE YOUR HONEST OPINION ABOUT SOLUTIONS TO THE FINANCING SITUATION OF STARTUPS IN THE REST OF THE WORLD?”
  5. 5. L A K E S T A R WORLDWIDE SURVEY ON THE ECOSYSTEM 4 “WOULD YOU PLEASE GIVE YOUR HONEST OPINION ABOUT SOLUTIONS TO THE FINANCING SITUATION OF STARTUPS IN THE REST OF THE WORLD?” PROBLEM: THE BANKERS DIDN’T KNOW WHAT ‘HONEST’ MEANT
  6. 6. L A K E S T A R WORLDWIDE SURVEY ON THE ECOSYSTEM 5 “WOULD YOU PLEASE GIVE YOUR HONEST OPINION ABOUT SOLUTIONS TO THE FINANCING SITUATION OF STARTUPS IN THE REST OF THE WORLD?” PROBLEM: THE CHINESE DIDN’T KNOW WHAT ‘OPINION’ MEANT
  7. 7. L A K E S T A R WORLDWIDE SURVEY ON THE ECOSYSTEM 6 “WOULD YOU PLEASE GIVE YOUR HONEST OPINION ABOUT SOLUTIONS TO THE FINANCING SITUATION OF STARTUPS IN THE REST OF THE WORLD?” PROBLEM: THE MIDDLE-EAST DIDN’T KNOW WHAT ‘SOLUTION’ MEANT
  8. 8. L A K E S T A R WORLDWIDE SURVEY ON THE ECOSYSTEM 7 “WOULD YOU PLEASE GIVE YOUR HONEST OPINION ABOUT SOLUTIONS TO THE FINANCING SITUATION OF STARTUPS IN THE REST OF THE WORLD?” PROBLEM: THE GREEK DIDN’T KNOW WHAT ‘FINANCING’ MEANT
  9. 9. L A K E S T A R WORLDWIDE SURVEY ON THE ECOSYSTEM 8 “WOULD YOU PLEASE GIVE YOUR HONEST OPINION ABOUT SOLUTIONS TO THE FINANCING SITUATION OF STARTUPS IN THE REST OF THE WORLD?” PROBLEM: THE USA DIDN’T KNOW WHAT ‘REST OF THE WORLD’ MEANT
  10. 10. L A K E S T A R TECH ECOSYSTEM TODAY 9 JOKES ASIDE – NEWS ON TECH ECOSYSTEM DOMINATED BY TWO TOPICS: •  ENORMOUS AMOUNTS OF CAPITAL DEPLOYED AT HIGH VALUATIONS
  11. 11. L A K E S T A R TECH ECOSYSTEM TODAY 10 JOKES ASIDE – NEWS ON TECH ECOSYSTEM DOMINATED BY TWO TOPICS: •  ENORMOUS AMOUNTS OF CAPITAL DEPLOYED AT HIGH VALUATIONS •  FEAR OF A BUBBLE
  12. 12. L A K E S T A R SHARE OF TOP 0.01% IN TOTAL INCOME OVER TIME 11Source: Piketty (2014), World Top Income Database (2014), UBS and PwC analysis 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2014 US Asia Europe First ‘Gilded Age’ Second ‘Gilded Age’‘Managerial Economy’ Shareoftop0.01%intotalincome Managerial ageEntrepreneurial age Entrepreneurial age
  13. 13. L A K E S T A R AGENDA 12 •  BUBBLE OR NOT? •  PRIVATE TECH SECTOR UPDATE •  EUROPEAN TECH ECOSYSTEM
  14. 14. L A K E S T A R ALL EQUITIES TRADE AT HISTORIC LEVELS 13Source: Morgan Stanley, internal 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% M-98 J-99 S-99 M-00 J-01 S-01 M-02 J-03 S-03 M-04 J-05 S-05 M-06 J-07 S-07 M-08 J-09 S-09 M-10 J-11 S-11 M-12 J-13 S-13 M-14 J-15 Nasdaq Dax S&P Dow
  15. 15. L A K E S T A R “OLD ECONOMY” RISES ALONGSIDE TECH 14Source: Morgan Stanley, internal 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% M-98 J-99 S-99 M-00 J-01 S-01 M-02 J-03 S-03 M-04 J-05 S-05 M-06 J-07 S-07 M-08 J-09 S-09 M-10 J-11 S-11 M-12 J-13 S-13 M-14 J-15 Nasdaq Dax S&P Dow
  16. 16. L A K E S T A R PRICE / EARNINGS RATIO ACROSS SECTORS 15 17x 25x 23x 22x 15x 17x 19x 18x Source: Factset, Wall Street Journal, public market information 2015 *P / E Ratio shows trailing (last) twelve months Tech „Old Economy“ P / E (LTM) Ratio*
  17. 17. L A K E S T A R PRICE / EARNINGS RATIO ACROSS SECTORS VS. GROWTH 16 27% 12% 14% 0.1% 0 - 3% Revenue growth rate (yoy) Tech „Old Economy“ Source: Factset, Wall Street Journal, public market information 2015 *P / E Ratio shows trailing (last) twelve months 17x 25x 23x 22x 15x 17x 19x 18x P / E (LTM) Ratio*
  18. 18. L A K E S T A R 17Source: Factset, public market information P/ERatio/Valuation YoY Revenue growth rate PRICE / EARNINGS RATIO ACROSS SECTORS VS. GROWTH
  19. 19. L A K E S T A R “OLD ECONOMY”: HIGH PRICES DUE TO QE RATHER THAN GROWTH 18 J-09 S-09 D-09 M-10 J-10 S-10 D-10 M-11 J-11 S-11 D-11 M-12 J-12 S-12 D-12 M-13 J-13 S-13 D-13 M-14 J-14 S-14 D-14 M-15 Dax S&P Dow ECB QE FED QE 1-3 Quantitative easing and low interest rates drive investors to equity markets Source: Factset, public market information
  20. 20. L A K E S T A R NON-TECH EQUITY MARKETS 19 PRICES IN NON-TECH DRIVEN BY •  QUANTITATIVE EASING AND •  LOW INTEREST RATES •  RATHER THAN GROWTH
  21. 21. L A K E S T A R A CLOSER LOOK INTO THE PUBLIC TECHNOLOGY SECTOR 20Source: Public market information, 2015 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% M-98 J-99 S-99 M-00 J-01 S-01 M-02 J-03 S-03 M-04 J-05 S-05 M-06 J-07 S-07 M-08 J-09 S-09 M-10 J-11 S-11 M-12 J-13 S-13 M-14 J-15 Nasdaq Dax S&P Dow
  22. 22. L A K E S T A R TECH: MEDIAN STATISTICS AT TIME OF IPO 21 17 92 2000 2014 Sales ($m) MEDIAN SALES AT IPO IN 2014 5.4X THAN IN 2000 Source: Cbinsights, public market information, 2015
  23. 23. L A K E S T A R 22 RATIO IMPROVED 7-FOLD 49x 7x 2000 2014 Enterprise Value / Sales Ratio Source: Factset, public market information, 2015 TECH: MEDIAN STATISTICS AT TIME OF IPO
  24. 24. L A K E S T A R 23 COMPANIES TWICE AS MATURE 5 11 2000 2014 Age (years) Source: Cbinsights, public market information, 2015 TECH: MEDIAN STATISTICS AT TIME OF IPO
  25. 25. L A K E S T A R TOP 10 NASDAQ COMPANIES: P/E MULTIPLES 24 57x 127x 43x 3x 85x 57x 2x 53x 123x 418x 2000 17x 25x 16x 39x 14x 11x 13x 17x 17x 2015 2000 P/E Median = 57x 2015 P/E Median = 17x Source: Factset, Cbinsights, public market information, 2015 N/A
  26. 26. L A K E S T A R PUBLIC TECHNOLOGY SECTOR 25 VALUATION LEVELS ARE •  BASED ON STRONG FUNDAMENTALS AND •  MULTIPLES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN IN 2000
  27. 27. L A K E S T A R UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL OF DOMINANCE 26Source: Public market information, 2015 Market Cap June 2015: $1,541,000,000,000.00
  28. 28. L A K E S T A R UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL OF DOMINANCE 27 Market Cap June 2015: $1,541,000,000,000.00 GDP Australia 2014: $1,483,000,000,000.00 Source: Public market information, 2015
  29. 29. L A K E S T A R UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL OF DOMINANCE 28 6% Share of online retail 54% Share of smartphone web traffic 75% Share of social media 90% Share of search Source: Adobe „US Mobile Web Benchmark Report 2014“, Cbinsights, Global Stats Center, e-marketer, Netmarketshare.com, Mashable
  30. 30. L A K E S T A R BUBBLE OR NOT? 29 Tech High Valuations due to •  Quantitative easing •  Substantial growth •  Strong fundamentals •  Scalability allows for domination •  Disruption is a chance Non-Tech High Valuations due to •  Quantitative easing … despite: •  Slow growth •  Disruption is a risk VS.
  31. 31. L A K E S T A R AGENDA 30 •  BUBBLE OR NOT? •  PRIVATE TECH SECTOR UPDATE •  EUROPEAN TECH ECOSYSTEM
  32. 32. L A K E S T A R STRONGEST INVESTMENT ACTIVITY SINCE 2000 31 50 54 87 133 2012 2013 2014 2015* Global venture capital funding ($bn) * 2015 extrapolated from Q1 2015 vs Q1 2014 figures Source: E&Y Venture Capital Report, Preqin, 2015
  33. 33. L A K E S T A R LAST NOAH CONFERENCE WE DISCUSSED THIS: MORE VALUE BEFORE IPO 32 Previous tech cycle New tech cycle $0.2bn $0.4bn $0.7bn Cisco Amazon Microsoft Valuation at IPO $5bn $18bn $104bn Linkedin Twitter Facebook Significant increase in value captured by private investors (e.g. VCs), while excluding public investors Source: Public Information, Quigley Report
  34. 34. L A K E S T A R TODAY WE SEE CONSEQUENCES: MORE LATER STAGE CAPITAL 33 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 167% 158% 164% 173% 474% Seed/Angel Series A Series B Series C Series D/Later Median round size per stage (indexed 2010) 2010 2015 Source: Preqin Private Equity Spotlight, 2015
  35. 35. L A K E S T A R 34 Valuations and Funding Volume for Top 20 Unicorns (in $bn) 18.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.3 7.3 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.8 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.9 2.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 Fall 2014 Median Funding $514m 2014 Source: WSJ, 2014 LAST NOAH CONFERENCE TOP 20 UNICORNS, THEIR VALUATION & FUNDING
  36. 36. L A K E S T A R 35 Valuations and Funding Volume for Top 20 Unicorns (in $bn) 46.0 41.2 15.0 15.0 15.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 10.0 9.6 9.0 8.8 8.4 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.5 4.1 4.0 1.4 5.0 1.0 0.8 3.0 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.4 Fall 2014 Median Funding $514m Spring 2015 Median Funding $800m 2015 Source: WSJ, 2015 TODAY TOP 20 UNICORNS, THEIR VALUATION & FUNDING
  37. 37. L A K E S T A R INVESTORS IN US UNICORNS 36 Sequoia KPCB T. Rowe Price A16Z Accel Partners Goldman Sachs NEA Tiger Global TPG Fidelity Source: Cbinsights, public information, 2015
  38. 38. L A K E S T A R AGENDA 37 •  BUBBLE OR NOT? •  PRIVATE TECH SECTOR UPDATE •  EUROPEAN TECH ECOSYSTEM
  39. 39. L A K E S T A R CAPITAL EFFICIENCY OF EXITS >$100M 38 62 27 US Europe Exemplary calculation: avg capital needed for $500m exit ($m) EUROPEAN STARTUPS MORE THAN TWICE AS EFFICIENT
  40. 40. L A K E S T A R EUROPE-BASED VC TEAMS INVESTING IN UNICORNS 39 Lakestar Accel Northzone Index Source: Public information, Lakestar internal, 2015 Atomico Holtzbrinck Kinnevik
  41. 41. L A K E S T A R ALGOMI 40 Algomi •  Bond information network between banks and asset managers globally •  Several billion dollars on platform per day
  42. 42. L A K E S T A R 41 Teralytics •  Per day, more than 420 million people and their movements analyzed real time •  More than 450 billion data points analyzed per day
  43. 43. L A K E S T A R

×