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Acg Terr Sand2004 2130w


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Acg Terr Sand2004 2130w

  1. 1. Advanced Concepts Group War on Terrorism Activities http:// Presentation to DHS TV/TA Committee Nancy K. Hayden April 23, 2004 SAND2004-2130W Unclassified Unlimited Release Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
  2. 2. Terrorism: It’s About People <ul><li>Poor economic conditions and low human Capital Development in Arab world will continue </li></ul><ul><li>Cultural Histories, ethnic tensions, hate, superstition, conspiracy…will continue to expound victimization narratives </li></ul><ul><li>Role of US/Israel as crusaders against backdrop of changing balance of powers (EU, Asia,..) </li></ul><ul><li>Fundamental religious movements will continue to foster rebellion against modernism </li></ul>Samuel Huntington The Clash of Civilizations
  3. 3. Terrorism is a Complex Problem Knowledge Network The key is to better understand the future—plan to change it, and change it Logistics/ Infrastructure Social/ psychological Simulation Multidimensional Games Red, Blue, Green White, Purple MOADB indications & warnings increase hope warn first responders manipulate - deceive - control - dissuade - deter - destroy enhanced collection scenario driven hypothesis smart decision making individuals and groups mitigate Reality
  4. 4. Complexity Science Yields New Analysis Paradigms Intrinsic network features transcend domains Santa Fe Institute Workshop April 10-11, 2003 How Complex Adaptive Systems Dynamics are Related to Understanding and Modeling Terrorist Behavior Sandia, Argonne, LANL, CIA, DTRA, MITRE, Navy Cornell, U of Penn, Intel, CMU, Icosystems, USAF, Galisteo, Humana, Alidade, U of Maryland, MIIS, Brookings
  5. 5. Systems Thinking: Frame the Problem Predict Analysis Function Timeframe System Complexity Describe Explore Interpret Infer Suggest Modeling approaches depend on what problem is being addressed
  6. 6. The Advanced Concepts Group <ul><li>Dotology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The application of red gaming and computer reasoning tools to the generation of terrorism hypotheses </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Knownet </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The creation of a virtual community of terrorism experts to share and create knowledge </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Seldon </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The development of computational sociopsychological models to better understand the complex behaviors of terrorist organizations. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mentor/Pal </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The study of novel human-machine systems using physiological monitors to enable superior group performance </li></ul></ul><ul><li>SDAC </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sense/decide/act/communicate devices that create inexpensive, self organizing systems for detection and reaction </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. <ul><li>Partners: </li></ul><ul><li>KDD program within ITIC </li></ul><ul><li>LDRD team in 5500 and 5900 </li></ul><ul><li>This year: </li></ul><ul><li>Hold another game or two in ’04 </li></ul><ul><li>LDRD to build prototype Hypothesizer </li></ul><ul><li>Transition concept to intel community with support from 5500 and 5900. </li></ul><ul><li>Dotology team: Rick Craft, Judy Moore, John Whitley </li></ul>Problem and Approach Accomplishments and Current Work The Future of This Concept Improve our nation’s ability to &quot;connect the dots&quot; to allow interdiction prior to an terrorist event. Creation of a national “red gaming” capability to generate and collect hypothetical scenarios and the creation of a data warehouse that would store these scenarios and fragments, in a computer manipulatible format at the level of “observable” events. Design of a tool, the “Hypothesizer”, calling on the data warehouse to expand the view of analysts for what might be unfolding and to eliminate spurious “dots” inconsistent with reasonable scenarios. <ul><li>IWFO project with KDD (part of ITIC) </li></ul><ul><li>Red Game held in July 2003 </li></ul><ul><li>LDRD to develop data structures for data warehouse </li></ul><ul><li>White paper on Red Teaming for Homeland Security </li></ul><ul><li>White paper on a National Counter Terrorism Univ. </li></ul>The Science of Connecting the Dots
  8. 8. A Recurrent Need <ul><li>The need to “know” the </li></ul><ul><li>terrorist has emerged </li></ul><ul><li>repeatedly in the </li></ul><ul><li>concepts that the </li></ul><ul><li>ACG has explored </li></ul>Control Dangerous Things Control Bad Actors rists Enable Dynamic Mitigation Support Apprehension & Prosecution Strengthen Emergency Response Know Ourselves, the Threat, & the Current Situation Resources Targets & Public & Private Responders Harden Critical Resources Terr o
  9. 9. Problem The nation needs to develop deep and comprehensive knowledge of terrorism and make this knowledge accessible where it is needed, when it is needed, and in the form needed. Approach Create a (inter-)national network that provides insight on short and long-term terrorist-related issues using experts who are fed with high-grade source information and supported by an infrastructure that enables communication, analysis, and collaboration. <ul><li>SFI workshop explored terrorism as complex system behavior with experts </li></ul><ul><li>KnowNet white paper explains ACG concept </li></ul><ul><li>KnowFest started building a functioning community of very diverse experts (Mini-Net) </li></ul><ul><li>KnowNet Pilot </li></ul><ul><li>Current Work </li></ul><ul><li>Nurture Mini-Net collaborations </li></ul><ul><li>Community white paper on Know Net </li></ul><ul><li>Pursue DHS Interest in S&T (Gary Strong) </li></ul><ul><li>Collaborate with DTRA/DHS to develop KnowNet implementation options </li></ul><ul><li>LDRD for Rapid Knowledge Generation to support other SNL/DHS terrorism work </li></ul><ul><li>Transition KnowNet program to SNL line organizations </li></ul><ul><li>Team Members : Nancy Hayden , Rick Craft </li></ul><ul><li>External Partners : St. Andrews, GWU, MIIS, MITRE, Tel Aviv University, U of Penn, U of Michigan, IDSS, RAND </li></ul>Accomplishments The Future
  10. 10. Knownet Toolbox <ul><li>Provide COTS/USG information visualization and analysis tools </li></ul><ul><ul><li>VxInsight: landscape views </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Starlight suite : network and context analyses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ClearForest: concept and link analyses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Attensity : syntactic and semantic freeform text analysis, discivers entities and relationships </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Incorporate Rapid Knowledge Generation middleware </li></ul><ul><li>Access to scenarios and behavior simulation models </li></ul>
  11. 11. Network models 3d models Scenarios Visualizations VxInsight
  12. 12. SELDON - Computational Simulation of Social Tipping Points <ul><li>Prototype agent-based model of recruitment within multiple social networks. </li></ul><ul><li>Preliminary results confirm strong role of social networks </li></ul><ul><li>Gang-terrorist analogy paper </li></ul><ul><li>Partners: Nina Berry (8964), Teresa Ko (8964), Ann Speed (12335), and Professor Kathleen Carley (Carnegie Melon University) </li></ul><ul><li>Team: Tim Moy, Julienne Smrcka, Jessica Turnley, and Ben Wu (POC) </li></ul><ul><li>Future Path: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Model middle east terrorists </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Develop transition plan to line organization. </li></ul></ul>Problem and Approach Accomplishments and Current Work The Future of This Concept Problem: improve our understanding of the factors and processes that lead to the emergence and persistence of terrorists Research question: how do we intervene in the recruitment pipeline so groups do not achieve size and structure necessary to support violent behavior? Approach: develop a computational psycho-social model that allows us to play ‘what if’ games with interventions in the recruitment pipeline to identify those which will preclude the development of a group structure that will lead to violence
  13. 13. Threat Awareness and Response Relevant Information Time Event Delayed Detection Response Threshold System Overload Desired Response Curve Today’s Response Curve
  14. 14. Mentor/Pal Team <ul><li>Prototype system for novel group observations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Live Demo </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Technology Roadmap to 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>System Architecture </li></ul><ul><li>Quickplace collaborative website </li></ul><ul><li>Lockheed Martin Skunk Works symposium </li></ul><ul><li>Human Studies Board approval </li></ul><ul><li>NASA Human Performance 2003 talk (Oct.) </li></ul><ul><li>Prof. Akaysha Tang, UNM: State of the art EEG and MEG laboratory, FY04 collaboration planned </li></ul><ul><li>Dave Warner, MD, Ph.D.,MindTel LLC: Mobile Op Center wireless application FY04 (potential) </li></ul><ul><li>Cal Tech student fellowships: Center for Neuromorphic Engineering (potential) </li></ul><ul><li>Dialogue with SNL line organizations </li></ul><ul><li>Interest from potential IC and DoD sponsors. </li></ul><ul><li>Project Manager: Merkle </li></ul><ul><li>ACG Team: Johnson, Jones, Craft </li></ul><ul><li>LDRD PI: Adele Doser (15311) </li></ul>Problem and Approach Accomplishments and Current Work The Future of This Concept <ul><li>Need: Improve the performance of people in situations with </li></ul><ul><li>High cognitive loads and high consequence decisions </li></ul><ul><li>High stress and time-critical operations </li></ul><ul><li>Unpredictable, ambiguous, non-recurring environments </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges for realistic training </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple people and machines </li></ul><ul><li>Examples: security operations centers, long-duration duty crews, team training simulators, crisis operations teams </li></ul><ul><li>Approach: Observe humans in collaborations under stress </li></ul><ul><li>What are signatures of high-performing collaborations? </li></ul><ul><li>Goal: novel systems coach teams to high performance </li></ul>Accelerometry, GSR, Pulse oximetry EMG, EKG, Respiration, Voice Face video, keystroke, Mouse x, y, click Voice recognition, EEG
  15. 15. S ense D ecide A ct C ommunicate Project Team <ul><li>Partners: Key Sandia Staff and Line Orgs collaborating on Talon Project,  Talon Initiative, and related sensor, comms, networking, and information processing & fusion technologies; </li></ul><ul><li>Institute for Defense Analysis (Joint Urban Ops) </li></ul><ul><li>Transition plans: Influence LDRD Investments; Implementation of major funded program under  Talon Initiative; Influence on, and contribution to, accelerating efforts at national level </li></ul><ul><li>SDAC Team: Ron Pate and Regan Stinnett </li></ul>Problem and Approach Accomplishments and Current Work The Future of This Concept <ul><li>Improved ISR and Precision Situational Awareness at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels are needed for the War on Terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Networked Sense/Decide/Act/Communicate (SDAC) “systems of systems” can provide the Virtual Presence capabilities needed for precision awareness and response in military, intelligence, and homeland security applications </li></ul><ul><li>Raised awareness within Sandia re/ networked SDAC concepts; Influenced FY03-04 LDRDs </li></ul><ul><li>Helped launch (and contributing to) Talon LDRD Project, internal SDAC-related strategic vision and road-mapping, and  Talon Initiative </li></ul><ul><li>Sponsoring SDAC LDRD Architectural Tradeoff Study and Demo System Development Project </li></ul><ul><li>Facilitating high-level national workshop Oct’03 </li></ul>
  16. 16. Long Term Solutions… Goal: understand the society and shift the distribution in our favor Lovers Lover supporters Undecided Hater supporters Haters Lovers Lover supporters Undecided Hater supporters Haters