Northern Ireland Economic and Labour
Market Statistics
NICVA Round Table
27th March 2014
Dr. James Gillan
Northern Ireland...
Overview
• Official Statistics Context
• Division of responsibilities for provision
of NI economic data;
• Recent and plan...
The Code of Practice for Official Statistics
• Statutory basis:-
– Statistics and Registration Services Act (2007)
• Princ...
UK Concordat on Statistics
• The administrations will work together to ensure the provision
of coherent, reliable, consist...
ONS , HMRC, Treasury Statistics
• The Office for National Statistics publishes:-
– Gross Value Added (Income) basic prices...
Labour Force
Employee Jobs
Claimants
Redundancy
Earnings
Labour Market Economic
QA of ONS’s
Regional GVA for NI
Employee j...
Geography of NI economic data
• More detail on available economic statistics at different
geographies within Northern Irel...
NICVA Report Recommendations
1. Data strategy to evaluate impact of policy
2. Adopt Scottish approach to economic data
3. ...
1.7 29.7 40.6
Agriculture 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.9
Industry 0.6 8.7 7.1 8.9 4.6 0.0 9.4 39.3
Services 0.1 1.8 8.9 7...
Issues identified from
Input - Output work in 2007-08
• Fit for purpose for those sectors related to
tourism but not valid...
Priorities Informed by:-
• Allsopp recommendations
• Official Statistics obligations:-
– UK Statistics Authority Assessmen...
Recent User Group meetings
• Employment & Learning Committee (Labour Market;
Sept. 2013, March 2014)
• Statistics Advisory...
Improving NISRA Economic Data Sources
• Annual Business Register and Employment Survey
• ABI Sample size increased from 5k...
“UK Composite Index” v UK GDP
to Q3 2013
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 ...
Tourism statistics
• New methodology to measure visitor volume and spend
– Overseas visitors (2010) departing via NI ports...
Annual Business Survey
NI-GB sample comparison
Region Sample Universe % selected
North East 1,670 53,512 3.1
North West 47...
Annual Business Survey
NI - Scotland Coefficients of Variation 2012
SIC 2007 Description NI aGVA Scotland aGVA
A (part) Ag...
2011 Annual Business Survey
Regional Estimates - DCA
District
Council
aGVA (£m) CV
ANTRIM 788 9.0
ARDS 363 9.1
ARMAGH 477 ...
2011 Annual Business Survey
Regional Estimates – NUTS3
NUTS3 aGVA (£m) CV
BELFAST 4,549 3.8
EAST OF NORTHERN IRELAND 4,373...
AFBI NI Input-Output Tables
Development
• Serve to policy analysis in agri-food sector and
climate change in NI
– 23 secto...
NI Supply-Use Tables
Objectives 2012-14
• First step towards development of a
comprehensive set of Supply-Use Tables
• Ide...
ONS /NISRA Project:- Main data sources
• Regional accounts – GVA components
• Northern Ireland Annual Business Inquiry
• C...
ONS / NISRA Supply Use –
General approach
• Compile at the same level of detail as the UK
SUT – i.e. 110 industry x 110 pr...
The Supply Table
INDUSTRY
P DOMESTIC SUPPLY
R at basic prices
O Total
D supply of
U products
C
T
TOTAL OUTPUT
Imports of
g...
The Demand Table
INDUSTRY
INTERMEDIATE DEMAND
P
R at purchasers' prices
O Exports
D
U
C
T
Total intermediate consumption
T...
Draft Conclusions and issues
• Several key sources identified and integrated
• Possible to produce prototype SUT
• Some im...
Next Steps
• Issue a SUT methodology report and consult more widely;
• New ABI exports methodology paper – May tbc 2014
• ...
Next Steps contd.
• UK Purchases Inquiry - 2015
• Likely to have a significant compliance burden
• NI version ?
• Living C...
Upcoming user group meetings
–ABI & Exports - (April/May 2014)
–Labour Market – (May 2014)
–Tourism Statistics Liaison Gro...
NI ‘Wellbeing’ Measures
DISCUSSION
NISRA response to NICVA economic data report
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NISRA response to NICVA economic data report

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The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) responded to CEE's report on Economic Data in Northern Ireland http://www.nicva.org/news/commentary-economic-data-northern-ireland

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NISRA response to NICVA economic data report

  1. 1. Northern Ireland Economic and Labour Market Statistics NICVA Round Table 27th March 2014 Dr. James Gillan Northern Ireland Economic Data NICVA Round Table 27th March 2014 Dr. James Gillan Lyric Theatre NISRA Economic and Labour Market Statistics
  2. 2. Overview • Official Statistics Context • Division of responsibilities for provision of NI economic data; • Recent and planned developments • User views
  3. 3. The Code of Practice for Official Statistics • Statutory basis:- – Statistics and Registration Services Act (2007) • Principle 1 – Meeting User Needs – The production, management and dissemination of official statistics should meet the requirements of informed decision making by government, public services, business, researchers and the public. – Systematic engagement, documenting needs, transparent priority setting
  4. 4. UK Concordat on Statistics • The administrations will work together to ensure the provision of coherent, reliable, consistent and timely UK-wide statistics. • The Head of the GSS will retain responsibility for the fulfilment of UK statistical obligations to the EU and international bodies and for EU/international liaisons and co-operation on statistical matters. • Statistics (and related commentary) to be published ..... by a different administration will be checked as necessary with the relevant devolved administration(s) for statistical validity before the final version is agreed.
  5. 5. ONS , HMRC, Treasury Statistics • The Office for National Statistics publishes:- – Gross Value Added (Income) basic prices • (At Northern Ireland level to 2012), • (At Northern Ireland by Industry to 2011) – Gross Value Added (Production) real prices (experimental) • (At Northern Ireland level to 2012), • (At Northern Ireland by Industry to 2011) – Gross Disposable Household Income ( to 2011) • HMRC Regional Trade Statistics • Public Expenditure Statistical Analysis for UK and devolved administrations published by HM Treasury
  6. 6. Labour Force Employee Jobs Claimants Redundancy Earnings Labour Market Economic QA of ONS’s Regional GVA for NI Employee jobs: QES Employee jobs: BRES / Census Index of Production Index of Services Annual Business Inquiry Business Register Business Activity Research & Development Manufacturing Exports Structure of NISRA Economic and LM Statistics Service Exports Innovation Index of Construction Composite Economic Index Tourism
  7. 7. Geography of NI economic data • More detail on available economic statistics at different geographies within Northern Ireland can be found on the Regional Analysis page of our website:  http://www.detini.gov.uk/deti-stats-index/stats-regional- analysis.htm • The UK Statistics Authority has recently published its latest Monitoring Review: "The Geography of Economic Statistics - Interim Report" looking at the availability of economic statistics at different geographical areas across the UK. • The report can be found at :  http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/monito ring/monitoring-reviews/index.html
  8. 8. NICVA Report Recommendations 1. Data strategy to evaluate impact of policy 2. Adopt Scottish approach to economic data 3. Provide GFCF, GNP and GDP for NI 4. Provide income-output / import-export relationships for NI 5. Improve public expenditure and revenue info. 6. Increase Annual Business Inquiry sample size
  9. 9. 1.7 29.7 40.6 Agriculture 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.9 Industry 0.6 8.7 7.1 8.9 4.6 0.0 9.4 39.3 Services 0.1 1.8 8.9 7.9 1.3 9.5 1.8 31.3 Imports 0.3 12.4 8.9 17.1 Depreciation Wages 0.1 3.2 10.0 Profits 0.5 2.8 5.6 Total inputs Final DemandOutput, Sales to:Inputs, purchases from: NI input-output model – 2003 (123 sectors - validated for Tourism)
  10. 10. Issues identified from Input - Output work in 2007-08 • Fit for purpose for those sectors related to tourism but not validated beyond this; • Difficulty balancing the tables particularly on the service sector side; • Legal gateways needed for administrative sources • Local survey sources need strengthened – ABI and exports – Imports
  11. 11. Priorities Informed by:- • Allsopp recommendations • Official Statistics obligations:- – UK Statistics Authority Assessments of all official statistics • Upgrading Business Survey IT infrastructure (IBSS) 2011- • User Group meetings (e.g. 2013) – Composite Index Expert User Group (Jan) – Tourism Statistics: • Committee for Enterprise Trade and Investment (March 2013) • Cross Border Tourism Liaison Group (June 2013) • Expert User Group (June 2013) • District Council Group (Sept 2013) • Tourism Statistics User Group (December 2013)
  12. 12. Recent User Group meetings • Employment & Learning Committee (Labour Market; Sept. 2013, March 2014) • Statistics Advisory Committee (Sept 2013, March 2014) • Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) User Group (December 2013) • Economic Accounts Expert User Group (Nov. 2013, March 2014)
  13. 13. Improving NISRA Economic Data Sources • Annual Business Register and Employment Survey • ABI Sample size increased from 5k to 11k ; • Exports integrated into ABI and coverage extended; • Imports questions added to ABI • Short term indicators strengthened – Increased sample size, improved methodology – Quarterly exports for IOP collected since June 2010 • NI Composite Economic Indicator introduced • Improved tourism estimates (including domestic)
  14. 14. “UK Composite Index” v UK GDP to Q3 2013 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 UK GDP UK Composite
  15. 15. Tourism statistics • New methodology to measure visitor volume and spend – Overseas visitors (2010) departing via NI ports and airports – Domestic Tourism • Continuing cross border liaison – Overseas visitors departing via RoI – RoI overnight visitors to NI • May 2013 – public consultation on tourism statistics • Monthly occupancy, quarterly combined estimate • Local Government tourism estimates (Dec 2013)
  16. 16. Annual Business Survey NI-GB sample comparison Region Sample Universe % selected North East 1,670 53,512 3.1 North West 474 16,531 2.9 Yorkshire & Humber 4,448 139,521 3.2 East Midlands 4,177 133,645 3.1 West Midlands 5,178 159,366 3.2 East of England 2,305 76,351 3.0 East of England 3,524 128,954 2.7 London 10,843 379,407 2.9 South East 9,073 326,977 2.8 South West 5,140 177,393 2.9 Wales 2,093 73,934 2.8 Scotland 8,139 137,290 5.9 GB Total 62,694 1,981,357 3.2 NI Total 10,390 51,001 20.4
  17. 17. Annual Business Survey NI - Scotland Coefficients of Variation 2012 SIC 2007 Description NI aGVA Scotland aGVA A (part) Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0.09 * B Mining and quarrying 0.04 0.05 C Manufacturing 0.01 0.06 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 0.05 * E Water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities 0.08 * F Construction 0.07 0.08 45 Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 0.07 0.04 46 Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 0.03 0.03 47 Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 0.03 0.02 H Transport and Storage 0.07 0.03 I Accommodation and food service activities 0.04 0.06 J Information and communication 0.04 0.04 L Real estate activities 0.04 0.14 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 0.05 0.09 N Administrative and support service activities 0.04 0.08 P Education * 0.16 Q Human health and social work activities 0.03 0.18 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 0.09 0.41 S Other service activities * 0.56 * small sample size
  18. 18. 2011 Annual Business Survey Regional Estimates - DCA District Council aGVA (£m) CV ANTRIM 788 9.0 ARDS 363 9.1 ARMAGH 477 8.6 BALLYMENA 1,356 3.8 BALLYMONEY 159 16.6 BANBRIDGE 220 21.3 BELFAST 4,549 3.8 CARRICKFERGUS 174 8.8 CASTLEREAGH 511 8.7 COLERAINE 456 7.8 COOKSTOWN 392 17.4 CRAIGAVON 918 5.0 DERRY 980 4.8 District Council aGVA (£m) CV DOWN 363 10.7 DUNGANNON 650 6.8 FERMANAGH 437 6.5 LARNE 365 8.9 LIMAVADY 162 13.6 LISBURN 1,050 9.1 MAGHERAFELT 408 12.2 MOYLE 51 20.8 NEWRY & MOURN 876 5.9 NEWTOWNABBEY 853 4.9 NORTH DOWN 462 10.1 OMAGH 291 9.7 STRABANE 166 10.3
  19. 19. 2011 Annual Business Survey Regional Estimates – NUTS3 NUTS3 aGVA (£m) CV BELFAST 4,549 3.8 EAST OF NORTHERN IRELAND 4,373 2.8 NORTH OF NORTHERN IRELAND 1,975 3.6 OUTER BELFAST 3,050 4.0 WEST AND SOUTH OF NORTHERN IRELAND 3,530 3.4
  20. 20. AFBI NI Input-Output Tables Development • Serve to policy analysis in agri-food sector and climate change in NI – 23 sector 2002 table: covers 10 agricultural sectors, 10 food processing sectors and other 3. – 32 sector 2005 table: 2002 table sectors + 9 energy sectors – Developed a satellite Greenhouse Gas (GHG) account compatible with the table – Data collection for the expansion of the agri-food and energy sector could be based on NISRA NIIO2010 and GHG accounts •© Ziping Wu •21
  21. 21. NI Supply-Use Tables Objectives 2012-14 • First step towards development of a comprehensive set of Supply-Use Tables • Identify data sources • Develop pilot Supply-Use Tables • Identify weaknesses and gaps • Work with AFBI to achieve common view • Recommendation for next steps
  22. 22. ONS /NISRA Project:- Main data sources • Regional accounts – GVA components • Northern Ireland Annual Business Inquiry • COINS/OSCAR for central government • Annual accounts for local government and further education • Living Costs and Food Survey - households • HMRC trade data • UK SUT
  23. 23. ONS / NISRA Supply Use – General approach • Compile at the same level of detail as the UK SUT – i.e. 110 industry x 110 products • Aggregate to SIC section for dissemination • Constrain GVA components to Regional Accounts totals • Apportion in line with UK SUT where specific splits for NI not available • Exports and imports split into GB, RoI, Rest of EU and Rest of World
  24. 24. The Supply Table INDUSTRY P DOMESTIC SUPPLY R at basic prices O Total D supply of U products C T TOTAL OUTPUT Imports of goods & services Distributors' trading margins Taxes (less subsidies) on products
  25. 25. The Demand Table INDUSTRY INTERMEDIATE DEMAND P R at purchasers' prices O Exports D U C T Total intermediate consumption Taxes (less subsidies) on production Compensation of employees Gross operating surplus TOTAL OUTPUT (INPUTS) GVA at basic prices (primary inputs) Total demand for products Gross capital formation Total intermediate demand Final consumption expenditure
  26. 26. Draft Conclusions and issues • Several key sources identified and integrated • Possible to produce prototype SUT • Some important areas of weakness: o Product split for intermediate consumption o “Imports” from Great Britain o International trade in services, particularly imports o Output of the financial and real estate industries o Inputs and outputs of the charitable sector • Living Costs & Food Survey (three year averages)
  27. 27. Next Steps • Issue a SUT methodology report and consult more widely; • New ABI exports methodology paper – May tbc 2014 • New ABI import data methodology paper - Summer 2014 • Update Tables and consult with expert group • New questions have been added to ABI (ref. year 2013) • Trade in goods and services with GB • Capital expenditure breakdown • Further work needed on financial sector / NGOs
  28. 28. Next Steps contd. • UK Purchases Inquiry - 2015 • Likely to have a significant compliance burden • NI version ? • Living Costs and Food Survey ? • NI web development to improve access
  29. 29. Upcoming user group meetings –ABI & Exports - (April/May 2014) –Labour Market – (May 2014) –Tourism Statistics Liaison Group (May 2014) –Economic Accounts Expert Group (June 2014)
  30. 30. NI ‘Wellbeing’ Measures
  31. 31. DISCUSSION

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