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Nfhk2011 rune elvik_parallel23

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Knowledge as a basis for successful injury prevention: The Handbook of Road Safety Measures. Rune Elvik, Transportøkonomisk institutt.

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Nfhk2011 rune elvik_parallel23

  1. 1. 21/12/2011 Page 1 © Institute of Transport Economics Knowledge as a basis for successful injury prevention: The Handbook of Road Safety Measures 10:e Nordiska Folkhälsokonferensen – session om Folkhälsoekonomi, 26.8.2011, 1030-1200 Rune Elvik, Transportøkonomisk institutt (re@toi.no)
  2. 2. 21/12/2011 © Institute of Transport EconomicsPage 2 Preventing traffic injury – a success  The number of people killed in road accidents has been dramatically reduced in many highly motorised countries the past 40 years  This success is partly attributable to long-term research and the systematic accumulation of knowledge by means of meta-analyses  The history of The Handbook of Road Safety Measures, developed in Norway, illustrates this process  Knowledge summarised in this book has provided key input to several road safety policy analyses in Norway  These analyses show that there are many cost-effective road safety measures
  3. 3. 21/12/2011 © Institute of Transport EconomicsPage 3 73 84 124 124 128 139 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 First edition (1982) Second edition (1989) Third edition (1997) First English edition (2004) Second English edition (2009) Forthcoming fourth edition (2012) Numberof road safety measuresincluded in The Handbook of Road Safety Measures
  4. 4. 21/12/2011 © Institute of Transport EconomicsPage 4 350 291 320 483 609 857 852 1170 2186 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Numberof pages in selected volumes of Accident Analysis and Prevention
  5. 5. Areas covered by the Handbook of Road Safety Measures 1. Road design 2. Road maintenance 3. Traffic control 4. Vehicle design and protective devices 5. Vehicle and garage inspection 6. Driver training and regulation of professional driving 7. Public education and information campaigns 8. Police enforcement and sanctions 9. Post accident care 10.General purpose policy instruments 21/12/2011 © Institute of Transport EconomicsPage 5
  6. 6. 21/12/2011 © Institute of Transport EconomicsPage 6 30220000 22930000 8140000 614000 0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 25000000 30000000 35000000 Prevention of a fatality Prevention of a critical injury Prevention of a serious injury Prevention of a slight injury AmountinNOK(2009-prices) Injury severity Monetary valuation of the prevention of traffic injury in Norway (NOK 2009- prices)
  7. 7. Impacts included in cost-benefit analyses  Travel time savings and unforeseen delays (very detailed)  Prevention of traffic injury  Prevention of health loss caused by air pollution  Prevention of global warming  Prevention of traffic noise  Reducing anxiety for unprotected road users in mixed traffic  Reducing anciety for landslides  Gains for public health by increased walking and cycling  Costs of implementing a measure 21/12/2011 © Institute of Transport EconomicsPage 7
  8. 8. 21/12/2011 © Institute of Transport EconomicsPage 8 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Numberoffatalitiesperyear Trafficfatalities in Norway 1940-2010 Highest on record: 1970 = 560 208 in 2010 = lowest since 1954
  9. 9. Benefits from optimal use of road safety measures in Norway  Optimal use = using a measure up to the point where marginal benefits equal marginal costs  Optimal use will maximise the net present value of each measure (net present value = discounted value of benefits minus costs)  Optimal use is found by performing an incremental analysis of costs and benefits of each road safety measure  This analysis is based on a ”utility function” for the use of each measure (i.e. it is first introduced where benefits are greatest, then second greatest, then third greatest, etc) 21/12/2011 © Institute of Transport EconomicsPage 9
  10. 10. 21/12/2011 © Institute of Transport EconomicsPage 10 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 0500010000150002000025000300003500040000 Marginalbenefit-costratio Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) Marginalbenefit-cost ratio for pedestrian bridge or tunnel by motor vehicle traffic volume Break-even point
  11. 11. 21/12/2011 © Institute of Transport EconomicsPage 11 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 Benefits(NOKmillion) Costs (NOK million) Benefits and costs of building pedestrian bridges or tunnels Marginal benefits = marginal costs Most cost-effective project Least cost-effective project Benefits = 4043; Costs = 3239
  12. 12. Cost-effective road safety measures in Norway (selection) Measure Fatalities prevented Net present value Intelligent speed adaptation 34 7798 (1.80) 3.5 times more speed enforcement 21 855 (3.28) 4 times more random breath testing 16 716 (4.62) Seat belt reminders in all cars (now 58%) 10 3952 (7.93) Front impact protection on heavy vehicles 7 1560 (2.52) E-call (electronic accident notification) 3 345 (1.54) Enhanced neck injury protection in all cars (now 27%) 3 2171 (4.91) Upgrading pedestrian crossings 3 1646 (2.39) New road lighting (on currently unlit roads) 2 725 (1.92) Guardrails along roadside 1 301 (1.80) 21/12/2011 © Institute of Transport EconomicsPage 12
  13. 13. Discussion  A few road safety measures can contribute to a fairly large reduction of the number of road accident fatalities  Many more measures each contribute to a small reduction of the number of fatalities  Vehicle-related measures appear to have the largest potential for improving safety  Increasing police enforcement can also contribute importantly  National governments have few instruments for influencing vehicle manufacturers  Drastically more police enforcement is unlikely 21/12/2011 © Institute of Transport EconomicsPage 13
  14. 14. Concluding remarks  Large gains in welfare can be attained by reducing traffic injury  In monetary terms, these gains in welfare exceed the costs of implementing the measures roughly up to the point of reducing fatalities by 50 percent  Vision Zero for traffic fatalities states that we should not settle for a 50 percent reduction in fatalities, but should aim for 100 percent  At the current monetary valuation of safety, that would imply the use of road safety measures far beyond the point that is optimal in economic terms 21/12/2011 © Institute of Transport EconomicsPage 14

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