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THE FUTURE OF
EMPLOYMENT

ichael A Osborne
Carl Benedikt Frey

University of Oxford
Machine Learning is the study of algorithms

that can learn and act. 

 

lsraelijudges are
significantly more
lenient aft...
l With the declining costs of computing, 
algorithms are increasingly a cheaper
alternative to human work. 

 1 am  ? i§'2...
O Cheap computing and data is leading to
algorithms for increasingly sophisticated tasks
So,  if machines can drive,  serve customers, 
and look through data as well as humans, 
what are humans still good for?  ...
We expect social intelligence,  creativity and

perception and manipulation to be

1- 4.4.‘ A  l _. ,.  . - -_   . ,“_ , _...
Management.  Business.  and Financial
Computer.  Engineering.  and Science
Education.  Legal.  Community Service.  Arts.  ...
- iIzumgetm-lit.  BlL'4ll| H~'S.  #| .ll(l Fiimurial
- Cuulputer.  Eligiliz-eriiig,  and S(‘ll‘lI('(‘
_ Erlumtion.  Lt-gil...
Average median wage (USD)

r:  -. ,tV{l. :-. .;" '= ':“n‘l>: '*’ .  _,  .‘i l A A.  . y
W . . t, .i1.= a.. it: ... l+. tg....
Technological advances do not necessarily
force us to choose between stagnation or

inequality. 

 

-. ... ... ._

W. .. ...
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Prof. Mike Osborne: the future of employment

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Professor Mike Osborne of the University of Exeter examines the future of employment in a world of increasing automation.

Professor Osborne was talking at FutureShock: http://www.nesta.org.uk/event/future-shock

Prof. Mike Osborne: the future of employment

  1. 1. THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT ichael A Osborne Carl Benedikt Frey University of Oxford
  2. 2. Machine Learning is the study of algorithms that can learn and act. lsraelijudges are significantly more lenient after a food break = (Danziger et al ' 2011). Proportion favorable decisions Morning snack Lunch Algorithms offer decisions free from human heuristics and biases.
  3. 3. l With the declining costs of computing, algorithms are increasingly a cheaper alternative to human work. 1 am ? i§'2E ism ram
  4. 4. O Cheap computing and data is leading to algorithms for increasingly sophisticated tasks
  5. 5. So, if machines can drive, serve customers, and look through data as well as humans, what are humans still good for? Principally,
  6. 6. We expect social intelligence, creativity and perception and manipulation to be 1- 4.4.‘ A l _. ,. . - -_ . ,“_ , _ s , - &. ?=OL1.l<; -‘I l€'C_-/ :> LO CO1 : i§J: _§1,-E‘: l. >OtlC): l. -—. l . . 1 - . 1 . l)1sl1wasl1<I' ( "ml ( l"1k Tol(. ~1m11‘l<(ri<~1‘ l3oiler11iake1' Prol, )ul_)ilit_V of C‘o1np11t<)risation c PI‘()l)1l)lllt_ of C‘omp11t<*1‘i. sati(>11 P1()l)21l, )ili’ry of C()II1]_)L1T(‘I'iSiit1011 <2 0 100 l’(, ‘I'(‘(‘[, )l1l()ll and Inznlipulation We used a dataset of 702 occupations, for which we have employment, income and occupation features (e. g. finger dexterity and persuasion) to predict automatabillty.
  7. 7. Management. Business. and Financial Computer. Engineering. and Science Education. Legal. Community Service. Arts. and Media Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Service Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Farming. Fishing. and Forestry Construction and Extraction Installation. Maintenance. and Repair Production Transportation and Material Moving 400M I <—— Low ——> <? Medium %-> <-—* High —~> 33% Employment 19% Employment 47% Employment 300M ' ‘E 0 f_. E . E‘ ‘A’ ‘ ‘E . . E m J / "l 100M " ' OM 0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.8 1 Probability of Computerisation
  8. 8. - iIzumgetm-lit. BlL'4ll| H~'S. #| .ll(l Fiimurial - Cuulputer. Eligiliz-eriiig, and S(‘ll‘lI('(‘ _ Erlumtion. Lt-gill. C0llIlllllllli. _’ Service. Arts. and Media - HDillll)(‘lll'l' I’ractit. iouers and Technical - S(-r'ic(- - S2il('§ and Relatctl - ()Hi('¢- and Adu1inistrnl'rve Support - Fanning. Fisliing. and F0r¢~. ~‘tr_v S (‘oimtrixclioii and Extract lon ‘ liistallmioli. .lnintv1mur-(-. and Repair — Production _ Transportation and Material ’. [uving 4: Low ——+ 4-—— M: -dimn ———+ 4: Iligli —> 80 43% Elll| )l()_Vlll(‘lll. ‘Z37 l‘I1i1p| nyrnmir 35% Hniploynlont 8 ~10 Emplo_vment (. l) 20 0 0 0.2 0. I 0.0 0.8 I Probaliility of Cmuptm-risutiun
  9. 9. Average median wage (USD) r: -. ,tV{l. :-. .;" '= ':“n‘l>: '*’ . _, .‘i l A A. . y W . . t, .i1.= a.. it: ... l+. tg. .l Ll rail l'__l »l- l ' i -. ' —l- ~ . ‘~ «.1 average ‘ ‘ ‘ ' ' ' ‘ ‘Weighted by employment 60% 40% i i ‘ ‘ ‘ i ‘unweighted 8 er 20% N o W Bachelor’s degree or better 0% 0 0.5 1 0 Probability of Computerisation 0.5 1 Probability of Computerisation
  10. 10. Technological advances do not necessarily force us to choose between stagnation or inequality. -. ... ... ._ W. .. . -. the war W ‘“"‘” W 7 Wash by Electricity Wuhan '0 -*7! ' AUTOMAGIC . : .3‘; wnsnen 1,1379% . 1 I ‘§———-‘'’‘’, 1“. VIC! ‘q"'. "v “*‘? ‘ ' 1,. " l J ‘,7? llEVIllllTlllIl1E$ , ":7 ; .-e H . . 1 s ' , nmsms *‘ ' : , , -« / - ' mmmwflh ‘ ' V 5‘ F1 " lg‘ mmmu I; ll 1 l lull ii’ _I I at " U 7 J ‘l l 1 ‘ . 5 . . . n ' " l M ' . V l. ,. 1. ‘- | -I au. m. ' l ‘ v. ,.. wi, . . . . Il'<X'l‘, l‘ ll’: -." IIURI . MACIHNE COMI’ l '. g I02 50. l iulon Sin-cl. Chiuagu. mull ’. f‘ N -_. .-__. —._ / . . - | . (‘C _n) . all . -
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    Nov. 28, 2014

Professor Mike Osborne of the University of Exeter examines the future of employment in a world of increasing automation. Professor Osborne was talking at FutureShock: http://www.nesta.org.uk/event/future-shock

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