Public Attitudes to Brexit

1. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Public Attitudes To Brexit What ‘Brexit Means Brexit’ Means to Citizens Dr Thomas J. Leeper London School of Economics Joint with Prof Sara Hobolt and Prof James Tilley 20 April 2018 Research funded by ESRC UK in a Changing Europe

2. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions

3. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions 1 How did we get here? 2 What does the public want? 3 What has changed? 4 Does this mean polarisation?

5. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Source: Ipsos MORI

6. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions “If there was a referendum on your country’s membership of the EU, how would you vote?” Source: YouGov, July 2015

13. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What don’t the polls tell us? What kind of Brexit does the public support or oppose? When forced to choose, which aspects of the negotiations are prioritised?

14. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Trend in Trade/Immigration Tradeoﬀ Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)

15. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Conjoint Analysis Bundle features of Brexit Force respondents to choose between bundles Revealed preferences emerge from those choices Estimate relative importance of features

16. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Diﬀerences from Traditional Polling Advantages Reduces “cake and eat it” results Lower social desirability biases Mimics decision of negotiators/government Disadvantages More cognitively complex than traditional polling No straightforward “% support” statistics

17. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What goes in the conjoint? 1 Immigration/freedom of movement 2 Jurisdiction of the ECJ 3 Rights of EU (UK) citizens in UK (EU) 4 ‘Divorce bill’ 5 Ongoing payments to EU budget 6 Trade agreement 7 Northern Ireland border 8 Timeline for implementation

18. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Implementation 26–27 April 2017 YouGov sample (n=3,293) Respondents make 5 discrete choices Eﬀective sample of n=16,465

20. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions All −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 2025 2023 2021 2020 2019 Passport checks but no customs checks Customs checks but no passport checks No passport checks and no customs checks Full passport and customs checks Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods £70 billion £50 billion £20 billion £10 billion No payment £1 billion per year for access £6 billion per year for access £12 billion per year for access No contribution and no access Must apply for leave to remain under the same terms as people from non−EU countries Must apply for leave to remain under less restrictive terms than people from non−EU countries Can stay if they continue to work while all others must leave All can stay indefinitely All must leave Britain adopts some EU laws but is not subject to decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is subject to some EU laws and some decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is subject to all EU laws and all decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is not subject to EU laws or decisions by the European Court of Justice Full control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now Full control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Some control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now Some control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now No control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Full control over EU immigration and little to no EU immigration Estimated AMCE

21. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Leave Remain −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 2025 2023 2021 2020 2019 Passport checks but no customs checks Customs checks but no passport checks No passport checks and no customs checks Full passport and customs checks Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods £70 billion £50 billion £20 billion £10 billion No payment £1 billion per year for access £6 billion per year for access £12 billion per year for access No contribution and no access Must apply for leave to remain under the same terms as people from non−EU countries Must apply for leave to remain under less restrictive terms than people from non−EU countries Can stay if they continue to work while all others must leave All can stay indefinitely All must leave Britain adopts some EU laws but is not subject to decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is subject to some EU laws and some decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is subject to all EU laws and all decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is not subject to EU laws or decisions by the European Court of Justice Full control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now Full control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Some control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now Some control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now No control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Full control over EU immigration and little to no EU immigration Estimated AMCE Feature Immigration Controls Legal Sovereignty Rights of EU Nationals Ongoing Budget Payment One−off Payment Trade Terms Ireland/NI Border Timeline

24. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What respects the referendum? Beyond preferences, what does the public think would respect the referendum? “Which option(s) do you think would respect the result of the referendum?” Option A would respect the result Option B would respect the result Both would respect the result Neither would respect the result Don’t know

25. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Leave Remain −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 2025 2023 2021 2020 2019 Passport checks but no customs checks Customs checks but no passport checks No passport checks and no customs checks Full passport and customs checks Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods £70 billion £50 billion £20 billion £10 billion No payment £1 billion per year for access £6 billion per year for access £12 billion per year for access No contribution and no access Must apply for leave to remain under the same terms as people from non−EU countries Must apply for leave to remain under less restrictive terms than people from non−EU countries Can stay if they continue to work while all others must leave All can stay indefinitely All must leave Britain adopts some EU laws but is not subject to decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is subject to some EU laws and some decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is subject to all EU laws and all decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is not subject to EU laws or decisions by the European Court of Justice Full control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now Full control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Some control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now Some control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now No control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Full control over EU immigration and little to no EU immigration Estimated AMCE Feature Immigration Controls Legal Sovereignty Rights of EU Nationals Ongoing Budget Payment One−off Payment Trade Terms Ireland/NI Border Timeline

28. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Summarising Trends in One Word

29. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Summarising Trends in One Word Stability!

30. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Tracking Public Opinion Polling averages (NatCen) Custom tracking poll Apr, Jun, Sep 2017; Jan, Apr 2018 Fielded by YouGov (n=1600 per wave) Go beyond the standard polling questions

31. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Source: NatCen Social Research (What UK Thinks)

33. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Trend in Right/Wrong Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)

34. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Stability! Except...

36. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Trend in Government Performance Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)

38. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Open-ended Question In a few sentences, please describe below what you think will be the con- sequences of Britain leaving the Euro- pean Union.

39. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What Remain Voters Say Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)

40. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What Leave Voters Say Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)

41. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Trend in Sentiment Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)

42. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Perceived Effects of Brexit Do you think leaving the European Union will have a positive or negative effect on Britain? Do you think leaving the European Union will have a positive or negative effect on you personally?

43. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Perceived Eﬀect on Britain Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)

44. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Perceived Personal Eﬀect Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)

48. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions New Identities? Since the EU referendum last year, some people now think of themselves as ‘Leavers’ and ‘Remainers’, do you think of yourself as... A Leaver A Remainer Neither

49. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions New Identities? 75% of Leave voters identify as “Leaver” 80% of Remain voters identify as “Remainer” 55% of non-voters identify as neither Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)

50. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What Identity Crystallisation Might Mean

51. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What Identity Crystallisation Might Mean Motivated reasoning

52. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What Identity Crystallisation Might Mean Motivated reasoning Prejudice and animus

53. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions What Identity Crystallisation Might Mean Motivated reasoning Prejudice and animus The ability to politicise identities

54. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Out-group animus, already Source: Hobolt, Leeper, and Tilley (YouGov)

57. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Prejudice Conjoints Two conjoints: 1 Choice of BBC Director General 2 Choice of a lodger Both involve a series of 5 forced choices between two alternatives 1 BBC (n = 1635 x 5 x 2) 2 Lodger (n = 1669 x 5 x 2) Vary eight features of each candidate Measure how much Leave/Remain discrimination is present

58. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Results: BBC Director General

59. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Leave Remain −0.2 0.0 0.2 −0.2 0.0 0.2 James Tom John Steve Chris Paul Claire Sarah Kate Becky Jenny 32 years old 38 years old 44 years old 50 years old 56 years old 62 years old 68 years old Has never worked for the BBC Has worked 4 years for the BBC Has worked 13 years for the BBC Has worked 21 years for the BBC Does not have a degree Has a degree from the University of Manchester Has a degree from the University of Oxford Has a PhD from the University of Exeter Former television producer Former journalist Former accountant Former lawyer Former civil servant Didn't support a party at the 2017 election Supported the Labour Party at the 2017 election Supported the Conservative Party at the 2017 election Didn't support a side in the EU referendum Supported the Remain campaign in the EU referendum Supported the Leave campaign in the EU referendum Estimated AMCE Feature name age experience degree occupation party eu

60. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Results: Lodger

61. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Leave Remain −0.2 0.0 0.2 −0.2 0.0 0.2 James Tom John Steve Chris Paul Claire Sarah Kate Becky Jenny 19 years old 23 years old 27 years old 31 years old 35 years old 39 years old 44 years old Full−time student Works in the public sector Works for a private company Self−employed Likes watching rugby Likes watching football Likes playing videogames Likes playing guitar Likes cooking Helps out at the local Catholic church Helps out at the local Anglican church Volunteers at an Oxfam shop Coaches an under−12 football team Doesn’t do any voluntary work Didn't support a party at the 2017 election Supported the Labour Party at the 2017 election Supported the Conservative Party at the 2017 election Didn't support a side in the EU referendum Supported the Remain campaign in the EU referendum Supported the Leave campaign in the EU referendum Estimated AMCE Feature name age occupation hobby volunteer party eu

62. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Conclusions

63. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Conclusions Opinion stability and little regret

64. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Conclusions Opinion stability and little regret Only a few key diﬀerences in views between Leave and Remain voters

65. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Conclusions Opinion stability and little regret Only a few key diﬀerences in views between Leave and Remain voters “Brexit identities” may become deﬁning feature of British politics

66. How did we get here? What does the public want? What has changed? Polarisation? Conclusions Conclusions Opinion stability and little regret Only a few key diﬀerences in views between Leave and Remain voters “Brexit identities” may become deﬁning feature of British politics What does this mean for the government and negotiations?

68. Features: Immigration Full control over EU immigration and little to no EU immigration No control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Some control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Some control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now Full control over EU immigration and similar levels of EU immigration to now Full control over EU immigration and lower levels of EU immigration than now

69. Features: EU Law/ECJ Britain is not subject to EU laws or decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is subject to all EU laws and all decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain is subject to some EU laws and some decisions by the European Court of Justice Britain adopts some EU laws but is not subject to decisions by the European Court of Justice

70. Features: EU/UK Citizen Rights All must leave All can stay indeﬁnitely Can stay if they continue to work while all others must leave Must apply for leave to remain under less restrictive terms than people from non-EU countries Must apply for leave to remain under the same terms as people from non-EU countries

71. Features: Future Payments No contribution and no access £12 billion per year for access £6 billion per year for access £1 billion per year for access

72. Features: “Divorce Bill” No payment £10 billion £20 billion £50 billion £70 billion

73. Features: Trade Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Few administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods Some administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 5% average tariff on goods Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and no tariffs on goods Many administrative barriers to trade in goods and services and 2.5% average tariff on goods

74. Features: Ireland/NI Border Full passport and customs checks No passport checks and no customs checks Customs checks but no passport checks Passport checks but no customs checks

75. Features: Timeline 2019 2020 2021 2023 2025

Public Attitudes to Brexit

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Public Attitudes to Brexit