National Aeronautics and Space Administration                Strategic Workforce Management Model                         ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                                            Order of Presentation        •   ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                 Why do we need something like SWMM?        • No large organi...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                 Why do we need something like SWMM?        •     Understandi...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                 Why do we need something like SWMM?        • From HR 2764 Ap...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                                            Order of Presentation        •   ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                                                                             ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                                     How SWMM was built:                     ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                                                                             ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                                            Order of Presentation        •   ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                         How many employees do we need?                      ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                                                                            S...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                                                                            A...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                                                               OTHER         ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                                                ESMD – a year ago            ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                                                               ESMD -- today ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                                            Order of Presentation        •   ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                               How SWMM can be used to do                    ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                                        SWMM Scenario Builder                ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration              How SWMM is run by a user to do these scenarios                ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                 A simple scenario re Human Space Flight        • Extend ISS ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                              SOMD Current and with ISS Extended to 2020     ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                             All of SOMD and ESMD – JSC, KSC, and MSFC       ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                                      Results of Some Other                  ...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration                                 Human Spaceflight Scenarios        • How to ...
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Ross.howard
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Ross.howard

21,993 views

Published on

Published in: Technology, Education
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
21,993
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Ross.howard

  1. 1. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Strategic Workforce Management Model February, 2009 PAE/Howard Ross and PAE/Jason Derleth Aerospace Corporation/Marcus Lobbia and John Goble OHCM/Stephen Chesley PAE/Nancy Searby and Andrew Demo www.nasa.gov 1
  2. 2. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Order of Presentation • Why do we need something like SWMM? • How SWMM was built? • So, how many people does NASA need over the next decade? • How SWMM can be used to do “what if” scenarios? • In the absence of other data, can we estimate workforce needs using budget and schedule data? • How should we forecast the effects of stretching a project or cutting its budget? www.nasa.gov 2
  3. 3. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Why do we need something like SWMM? • No large organization, with a multitude of projects and numerous physical locations, has perfect insight into long-term workforce demand – Without a carefully constructed set of data and a model, • It is difficult to predict workforce needs except over the very near term • It is even more difficult to do vital ‘what if’ analyses – This is the real focus of this presentation: to demonstrate we are trying to develop a relatively rapid ‘what if’ forecasting capability www.nasa.gov 3
  4. 4. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Why do we need something like SWMM? • Understanding future workforce Civil Service Opportunities Over Time needs allows: 20000 15000 Wedge of Opportunity - as new CS FTP - as CS temp/term – Strategic budget decisions 10000 - as contract-able work 5000 – Better-placed work assignments 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Fiscal Year – Targeted hiring Agency Competency Distribution Mission Operations Quality/Safety/Performance Technician • Know your workforce (types and Structures, Materials & Mechanics Electrical &Electronic numbers) Demand Engineering of Systems Sensor Systems Computer Science & Information Technology 8% 6% 4% 4% 5% Human & Biological • Know your workforce Supply Thermal/Fluid Power & Propulsion 4% 5% Systems Analysis & Mission Planning 19% • Identify gaps and surpluses Aeronautics Multi-disciplinary R&D Chemical Earth Sciences 12% Space Sciences Biological Sciences 5% 4% 3% • Present results and forecasts to Physical Sciences Professional Development Management 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 6% Business Operations decision-makers Workforce Operations & Support Financial Operations 3% 2% Institutional Operations & Support SWMM is trying to forecast DEMAND far into the future. www.nasa.gov 4
  5. 5. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Why do we need something like SWMM? • From HR 2764 Appropriation Language: – …”Finally, NASA is encouraged to engage in long-term agency-wide workforce planning.” – “The Administrator shall prepare a strategy for: • minimizing job losses… • equitably distribute tasks and workload between the Centers…. • [provide] overall projections of future civil service .. workforce levels” SWMM is trying to forecast DEMAND far into the future. www.nasa.gov 5
  6. 6. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Order of Presentation • Why do we need something like SWMM? • How SWMM was built? • So, how many people does NASA need over the next decade? • How SWMM can be used to do “what if” scenarios? • In the absence of other data, can we estimate workforce needs using budget and schedule data? • How should we forecast the effects of stretching a project or cutting its budget? www.nasa.gov 6
  7. 7. National Aeronautics and Space Administration How SWMM was built Two ways it could be done:Index Name Code P2.4.1 Space Obse rv atories 1.4.1.6 T errest rial Planet F inder 269,590 1.4.3.2 Hubble Spac e T elesc ope Development 530,007 1.4.3.5 Hubble Spac e T elesc ope Operat ions 315,404 1.4.2.2 James W ebb Spac e T elesc ope 411,672 1.4.7.1 1.4.10.1 1.4.10.3 1.2.6.1 W ide- Field Infrared Survey Explorer LISA(Laser Int erferomet er Spac e Ant enna) Const ellat ion- X Magnet ospheric Mult isc ale (MMS) 340,396 430,647 390,492 943,396 Bottom up: project-by-project Phase C/D Workforce and Development Cost (FY08$M) 1.2.7.2 Int erst ellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) 576,706 $2,000 1.4.5.1 Gamma- ray Large Spac e T elesc ope (GLAST 378,710 (>1000 discrete items in our budget $ Dev FY08$M 1.4.6.1 Kepler 354,171 $1,800 Linear ($ Dev FY08$M) Cassini 1.4.7.5 AST RO- E II 344,833 1.4.8.5 FUSE 378,154 y = 0.4392x 1.4.8.9 GALEX 657,620 $1,600 1.4.8.10 W MAP 610,577 R2 = 0.9241 1.4.8.11 SIRT F/Spit zer 420,579 & workforce systems) Development Cost FY08$M $1,400 1.4.8.12 Chandra 397,424 1.4.8.15 Int egral 412,595 1.4.8.16 XMM 411,021 $1,200 1.2.1.2 Geospac e Sc ienc e 274,542 1.2.7.9 IBEX (10) 316,764 $1,000 1.2.7.10 NuSt ar (11) 328,689 1.4.1.1 Spac e Int erferomet er (SIM) - Planet Quest 453,341 Spitzer 1.4.1.7 Large Binoc ular T elesc ope Int erferomet er 481,847 $800 1.4.3.3 Hubble Spac e T elesc ope Servic ing Mission 217,774 MER 1.4.7.3 EUSO 919,203 MRO $600 1.4.7.4 SW IFT 789,737 1.4.7.6 1.4.8.6 1.4.8.7 1.4.8.8 Nuc lear Spec t rosc opic T elesc ope Array CHIPS RXT E SW AS 222,501 392,139 372,059 367,832 Top Down: parametric estimates $400 DawnNew Horizons STEREO Kepler Phoenix Deep Impact $200 1.4.8.13 HET E- II 425,082 (derived from cost estimates) Stardust MESSENGER 1.4.8.14 GP- B 415,113 Genesis 1.4.8.17 IPAC 556,464 $- 1.4.9.3 Hersc hel 550,059 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 1.4.9.4 Planc k 429,559 Total Workforce 1.4.10.6 Fut ure Missions 381,269 2.5.2.2 Hubble Spac e T elesc ope Servic ing Projec t 329,678 SWMM is “bottom up” for most of the portfolio (allowing both numbers and types of people, but “top down” for science projects whose planned start is sometime after 2015 www.nasa.gov 7
  8. 8. National Aeronautics and Space Administration How SWMM was built: we have estimates of DEMAND for many projects JWST Workforce Workflow Projections by Domain JWST Workforce Workflow: Engineering Competency Suites 225 160.0 Phase DEV 150.0 TNAR PDR CDR 200 140.0 2.12 Multi-disciplinary R&D 2.11 Thermal/Fluid 130.0 2.10 Structures, Materials & Mechanics 175 2.9 Sensor Systems 2.8 Power & Propulsion 120.0 2.7 Electrical & Electronic 2.6 Computer Science & Information Technology 150 Science 110.0 2.5 Chemical Mission Operations 2.3 Aeronautics 100.0 2.2 Systems Analysis & Mission Planning Leadership and Management 2.1 Engineering of Systems 125 90.0 Engineering FTE FTE Business Management 80.0 100 70.0 60.0 75 50.0 50 40.0 Assumed 30.0 25 20.0 10.0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 FY FY WIMS Data Mar 07 Engineers roll off throughout development; Distribution of specific engineering science support stays constant; estimated competencies changes throughout what happens after launch and modified our development. estimates after discussions with SMD. Example: JWST Workforce Plan (2007) – drawn from N2 and WIMS and discussions with Program Manager www.nasa.gov 8
  9. 9. National Aeronautics and Space Administration How SWMM was built… • Then aggregate all projects at a center or across the agency to get total workforce DEMAND. Generate workforce demand for all 1 1 projects (like Orion and JWST), using N2, 2 2 Extract all needs for a 3 3 Create a “people” sand WIMS, and assumptions from program competency for the managers for outyears Agency or at a center chart that can be displayed by Center, by M ulti-d isc iplina ry R & D Th e rm al/Flu id competency, etc. S tru cture s, M a teria ls & M ec ha n ic s S e n so r S ystem s P o w e r & P ro p uls io n E le ctrica l & E lec tro n ic C om p u te r S cie nc e & [D] Info rm ation Te ch n olo gy [S] C he m ica l H um a n a n d B io lo g ica l A e ro na utics S ys te m s A na lys is & M is sio n P la n nin g E n g in e erin g o f S ys te m s 05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 J W S T W o rk fo rc e W o rk flo w : E n g in e e rin g C o m p e te n c y S u ite s 1 6 0 .0 Phase DEV 1 5 0 .0 TN A R PDR CDR 1 4 0 .0 2 . 1 2 M u lt i-d is c ip lin a ry R & D 2 . 1 1 T h e rm a l/ F lu id 1 3 0 .0 2 . 1 0 S t ru c t u re s , M a t e ria ls & M e c h a n ic s 2.9 S e ns o r S y s te m s 2 . 8 P o w e r & P ro p u ls io n 1 2 0 .0 2 . 7 E le c t ric a l & E le c t ro n ic 2 . 6 C o m p u t e r S c i e n c e & In fo r m a t i o n T e c h n o l o g y 1 1 0 .0 2 . 5 C h e m ic a l 2 . 3 A e ro n a u t ic s 1 0 0 .0 2 . 2 S y s t e m s A n a ly s is & M is s io n P la n n in g 2 . 1 E n g in e e rin g o f S y s t e m s 9 0 .0 FTE 8 0 .0 7 0 .0 6 0 .0 5 0 .0 4 0 .0 3 0 .0 2 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 .0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 FY W IM S D a ta M a r 0 7 www.nasa.gov 9
  10. 10. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Order of Presentation • Why do we need something like SWMM? • How SWMM was built? • So, how many people does NASA need over the next decade? • How SWMM can be used to do “what if” scenarios? • In the absence of other data, can we estimate workforce needs using budget and schedule data? • How should we forecast the effects of stretching a project or cutting its budget? www.nasa.gov 10
  11. 11. National Aeronautics and Space Administration How many employees do we need? FTE by Center ARC 25000 DFRC GRC 20000 GSFC JPL 15000 JSC KSC 10000 LaRC MSFC 5000 SSC HQ 0 ShrdSvcs 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Unassgnd FTE by Domain 25000 20000 Science 15000 Mgt. Msn. Ops. 10000 Engineer. Business 5000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Obvious question: why does the DEMAND drop? Is this real [no]? Answers will become obvious shortly… www.nasa.gov 11
  12. 12. National Aeronautics and Space Administration SOMD FTE by Center ARC 4000 DFRC 3500 GRC 3000 GSFC 2500 JPL JSC 2000 KSC 1500 LaRC ASSUME: 1000 MSFC 500 SSC •Shuttle 0 HQ ShrdSvcs retirement in 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Unassgnd 2010 FTE by Domain 4000 •ISS in 2016 3500 3000 •SCAN, LSP, 2500 Science Mgt. RPT continue 2000 Msn. Ops. 1500 Engineer. 1000 Business 500 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 www.nasa.gov 12
  13. 13. National Aeronautics and Space Administration ARMD FTE by Center ARC 1600 DFRC 1400 GRC 1200 GSFC 1000 JPL JSC ASSUME: 800 KSC 600 LaRC 400 MSFC SSC •ARMD FTE 200 HQ 0 are ShrdSvcs 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Unassgnd constant beyond 1600 FTE by Domain 2014 1400 1200 Science 1000 Mgt. 800 Msn. Ops. 600 Engineer. 400 Business 200 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 www.nasa.gov 13
  14. 14. National Aeronautics and Space Administration OTHER FTE and Budget ($M) by Center ARC 12000 DFRC 10000 GRC GSFC 8000 JPL JSC 6000 ASSUME: KSC 4000 LaRC MSFC • Education FTE are 2000 SSC constant at the 2014 HQ level 0 ShrdSvcs 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Unassgnd • Reimbursable Business FTE are constant at the 12000 FTE and Budget ($M) by Domain 2008 level 10000 Science • CASP FTE are 8000 Mgt. constant at the 2014 6000 Msn. Ops. level Engineer. 4000 Business 2000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 www.nasa.gov 14
  15. 15. National Aeronautics and Space Administration ESMD – a year ago FTE by Domain (Generated March 08) 6000 5000 4000 Science Management FTE 3000 Mission Ops Engineering Business 2000 1000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Increase in engineering as more of the Ares and Lunar hardware DDTE kicks in. www.nasa.gov 15
  16. 16. National Aeronautics and Space Administration ESMD -- today FTE by Domain (Generated March 08) 6000 5000 Far fewer total FTE As with most 4000 Science in the outyears now big, long-term Management FTE 3000 Mission Ops Engineering (with the biggest projects, one Business reduction in 2000 forecasts more 1000 engineering). FTE the closer 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 one comes to FTE by Domain an execution 6000 Why: This is an year. 5000 Science artifact of WAG data received from Cx: 4000 Mgt. •Little Ares V DDTE 3000 Msn. Ops. •Very little lunar Engineer. surface sys. 2000 Business •No center- 1000 assignments re Altair 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Nonetheless, the trend of the data through 2014 is good, and can / was used for “what if” analysis www.nasa.gov 16
  17. 17. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Order of Presentation • Why do we need something like SWMM? • How SWMM was built? • So, how many people does NASA need over the next decade? • How SWMM can be used to do “what if” scenarios? • In the absence of other data, can we estimate workforce needs using budget and schedule data? • How should we forecast the effects of stretching a project or cutting its budget? www.nasa.gov 17
  18. 18. National Aeronautics and Space Administration How SWMM can be used to do “what if” scenarios? • Strategic Workforce Management Model is also to enable: – Analysis of “what-if?” scenarios • What if this project started earlier or if it stretched out? • What if this project was done inhouse? • What if we this project was done by international partners? www.nasa.gov 18
  19. 19. National Aeronautics and Space Administration SWMM Scenario Builder Types of Scenarios (for now) • Add and delete projects • Shift projects in time (delay start) • Stretch projects (remain longer in formulation; remain longer in development; etc) • Extend projects (e.g., keep operations going at existing level) • Change project make/buy • Besides FTE data, show effects on budget • Assign projects or project elements to different centers www.nasa.gov 19
  20. 20. National Aeronautics and Space Administration How SWMM is run by a user to do these scenarios Include (1) or Spend more time Exclude (0) a than originally project planned in a phase Delay or advance Extend a project the start of the longer than project originally planned www.nasa.gov 20
  21. 21. National Aeronautics and Space Administration A simple scenario re Human Space Flight • Extend ISS to 2020 www.nasa.gov 21
  22. 22. National Aeronautics and Space Administration SOMD Current and with ISS Extended to 2020 Total FTE by Competency Domain Total FTE by Competency Domain 4000 4000 3500 3500 3000 3000 2500 2500 2000 Science 2000 Science Mgt. Mgt. 1500 Msn. Ops. 1500 Msn. Ops. Engineer. Engineer. Business Business 1000 1000 500 500 0 0 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 2018 2019 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 2018 2019 2011 2014 2017 2020 2011 2014 2017 2020 Current Plan ISS extended www.nasa.gov 22
  23. 23. National Aeronautics and Space Administration All of SOMD and ESMD – JSC, KSC, and MSFC ISS Extended to 2020 JSC - FTE by Domain JSC - FTE by Domain 3000 3000 2500 2500 Science Science 2000 Mgt. 2000 Mgt. 1500 Msn. Ops. 1500 Msn. Ops. Engineer. Engineer. 1000 1000 Business Business 500 500 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2019 2020 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2011 2012 2013 2019 2020 KSC - FTE by Domain 2009 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 KSC - FTE by Domain 1600 1600 1400 1400 1200 Science 1200 Science 1000 Mgt. 1000 Mgt. 800 Msn. Ops. 800 Msn. Ops. 600 Engineer. Engineer. 600 400 Business 400 Business 200 200 0 0 MSFC FTE by Domain 2010 2013 2017 2020 2009 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 MSFC FTE by Domain 2010 2013 2017 2020 2009 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 2000 2000 1800 1800 1600 Science 1600 1400 Science Mgt. 1400 1200 Mgt. 1200 1000 Msn. Ops. 1000 Msn. Ops. 800 Engineer. 800 Engineer. 600 Business 600 400 Business 200 400 200 0 0 2011 2014 2017 2020 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 2018 2019 2011 2014 2017 2020 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 2018 2019 Base Case ISS Extended www.nasa.gov 23
  24. 24. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Results of Some Other Human Space Flight Scenarios • We ran these 3 scenarios: – Baseline – Stretch 3 projects • Shuttle flies to 2012 Scenario 1 • Orion stretched / grown by a year Scenario 2 • Ares 1 stretched / grown by a year – Shift 2 projects 2 years to the right • Delay start of Altair Scenario 3 • Delay start of Ares 5 www.nasa.gov 24
  25. 25. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Human Spaceflight Scenarios • How to implement the scenarios: – Extend Shuttle 2 years • Assume 2009 staffing is duplicated in 2010 and 2011 – Stretch Orion and Ares I for 1 year • Will show algorithm used for any project (not specific to these projects) later in presentation – Delay Ares V and Altair staffing up by 2 years • Slide future years’ staffing 2 years to the right www.nasa.gov 25

×