Mission Resource/Capability Analyzer: Estimating Multi-       Mission Service Cost                       Marilyn Newhouse ...
Operations Control Center Evolution• Operations Control Centers (OCCs) continue to evolve from a dedicated  mission and cu...
Cost Estimation Pitfalls• Failure to take into account, or over-reliance on, economies of scale – Secondary resources may ...
Cost Estimation Processes• Management and service teams must – Estimate the capacity of the current facilities and its sca...
Cost Estimation Processes (cont.)• Management and service teams need a tool (or tools) to support multiple  paradigms and ...
Mission Resource/Capability Analyzer Characteristics• Excel-based – Provides flexibility, adaptability, rapid familiarizat...
Heritage• The original budget analysis tool provides a framework for easily  specifying project cost profiles for multiple...
Service Selection    • Fully automated selection based on service levels    • Easy adaptation of common characteristics   ...
Automatic Service Expansion for Detailed Resources                                                                        ...
Automatic Resource Allocation and Cost Estimation                                                                         ...
Individual Resource Roll-Up                                                            Training 8x53.5 32.5 2             ...
Aggregate Resource Roll-Up                                                                                                ...
Service Level Resource Definition                              Hardware Resource       Unit Cost     Max Units        Unit...
Budget Roll-Up Across All Missions                                                                               Budget Pr...
Summary• Estimating resource requirements and service costs for modern multi-  mission centers is a complex problem – Diff...
Summary (cont.)                                                                                                     Budget...
MISSION RESOURCE CAPABILITY ANALYZER                     Thank You
January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 17
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Newhouse capability modeling v2

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  • Excel-basedMinimum code (visual basic)Easily adaptable during developmentEasily extensible beyond budget prediction to resource utilization
  • MRCA allows straightforward selection of basic service levels, with easy adaptation of the most common characteristics
  • Algorithms estimate costs for the resources, services, and associated labor, from development and procurement through installation and sustaining operations.
  • Resources and costs roll up across multiple missions and are compared to available control center capabilities and capacities.
  • Underlying databases provide definition of available resources, associated costs, default service level allocations
  • Within minutes, can go from specifying a new mission to understanding effect on total budget or resources
  • Newhouse capability modeling v2

    1. 1. Mission Resource/Capability Analyzer: Estimating Multi- Mission Service Cost Marilyn Newhouse Principal Lead Systems Engineer February 23, 2012
    2. 2. Operations Control Center Evolution• Operations Control Centers (OCCs) continue to evolve from a dedicated mission and customer to multi-mission, multi-customer – Uses available development funding more efficiently – Reuses capabilities, concepts, and products – Increases the client pool for existing assets• Evolving technologies are expanding the mission types, as well as options for sharing capabilities, distributed operations,• Control Center management continues to struggle with the problem of how to accurately model required capabilities and resources, and how to cost mission services January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 1
    3. 3. Cost Estimation Pitfalls• Failure to take into account, or over-reliance on, economies of scale – Secondary resources may not scale identically to primary resources – Differing assumptions regarding which economies are acceptable• Insufficient flexibility for differing operational paradigms – Adaptation of OCC development processes to short, rapid demonstration missions vs. flagship missions – Estimation of support for ongoing, long-term or extended mission operations• Team communication January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 2
    4. 4. Cost Estimation Processes• Management and service teams must – Estimate the capacity of the current facilities and its scalability for different mission types – Determine realistic costs across multiple operational scenarios • Test flights to payloads and free flying spacecraft • Engineering support to full operations • Single operations center to distributed operations with international partners – Model services to provide accurate cost predictions for current and future customers – Model resource usage to identify shortfalls in resources or resource coverage – Identify options to easily tailor resources and capabilities to customer requirements – Execute “what-if” scenarios to understand risks and identify potential mitigations January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 3
    5. 5. Cost Estimation Processes (cont.)• Management and service teams need a tool (or tools) to support multiple paradigms and time scales – Initial planning of overall service support paradigm – Ongoing business development; identification of potential customers – Cost estimation for new customers – Replanning estimates for existing customers – Annual budget cycle planning January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 4
    6. 6. Mission Resource/Capability Analyzer Characteristics• Excel-based – Provides flexibility, adaptability, rapid familiarization – Graphical presentation to facilitate understanding of integrated data – Extensibility through Visual Basic for interfaces, complex algorithms, and automation• Provides a visual summary of the total resource utilization and budget for a control center• Supports what-if scenarios – Understanding dependencies and limitations on available support – Early identification of resource conflicts – Contingency planning• Provides detailed monthly and annual cost and resource provides to support budget processes and procurement planning January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 5
    7. 7. Heritage• The original budget analysis tool provides a framework for easily specifying project cost profiles for multiple missions and rapidly manipulating alternate profiles and funding scenarios Budget Profile Mission 7 Mission 6 Mission 5 Mission 4 $ (K) Mission 3 Mission 2 Mission 1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Budget Line Fiscal Year January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 6
    8. 8. Service Selection • Fully automated selection based on service levels • Easy adaptation of common characteristics • Up to 5 missions for “what if” scenarios January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 7
    9. 9. Automatic Service Expansion for Detailed Resources Mission Service Profile Cost ProfileProject Project A Resource ProfileService Level BasicProject Milestones Operations Team Size Operations Area(s) 1 Planning 12/1/2011 1/20/2012 Local Real-Time 5 Remote Sites(s) 1 Systems Engineering 1/20/2012 5/17/2013 Local Non-Real-Time 5 Procurement 6/1/2012 3/1/2013 Remote 5 Systems Integration 12/1/2012 5/17/2013 Simulations 3/1/2013 5/17/2013 CoFR 4/17/2013 5/17/2013 Mission Operations 5/17/2013 11/17/2013 Post-Flight 11/17/2013 5/31/2014Service Request Details Labor Hardware/Software & Maintenance Cost/ Number Units Month Number Units Total Cost Number Units Cost CST 0.2 Shift $5 Workstation 10 Item $50 Annual Software Support 10 Terabyte $12 Marshall Ops 8x5 1.0 Shift $13 22" Monitor 20 Item $20 Core/Server Side Invest. 3 Item $30Marshall Ops Extended Weekend 1.0 Shift $13 Servers 1 Item $120 Keyset Unit 5 Item $5 Marshall Data 8x5 1.0 Shift $13 Printers 2 Item $2 Flat screeen monitor 5 Item $5 Help Desk 8x5 1.0 Shift $10 Spares - Revisit 1 Dollars $50 VOIP Thin Client 5 Item $5 Help Desk 8x5 Event Support 1.0 Shift $10 Clock 1 Item $1 Speakers 5 Item $5 Help Desk 24x7 0.0 Shift $0 Ethernet adapter 1 Item $1 Footswitch 0 Item $0 Help Desk 24x7 Event Support 1.0 Shift $10 Net switches 1 Item $1 Headset 5 Item $5 Training 8x5 0.5 Shift $9 Net Fiber Port 1 Item $1 USB Hub 5 Item $5 System Management 1.0 Shift $13 Net routers 1 Item $1 Core/Server Side Invest. 0 Item $0 Systems Engineering 1.0 Shift $24 Cabling/ Connectors 1 Item $1 Talk/Listen IPCEU License 0 License $0 Software Engineering 1.0 Shift $19 MS Windows/ Office 10 License $10 Multi-point group latency reduction 0 Item $0 Network Engineering 1.0 Shift $19 Red Hat Linux Server 1 License $1 Per use license one channel audio 0 License $0 … CMG 1.0 Shift $14 Red Hat Net Mgmt 1 License $1 Per use license LDAP access 0 License $0 • Each mission independently expanded using database of hardware, software, facility, and personnel resources • Each resource can be overridden for full flexibility January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 8
    10. 10. Automatic Resource Allocation and Cost Estimation Labor Resources Ops Help Desk Help Desk Monthly Annual Extended Help Desk 8x5 Event Help Desk 24x7 Event System SystemsMONTH FY Staffing Total CST Ops 8x5 Weekend Data 8x5 8x5 Support 24x7 Support Training 8x5 Management Engineering $2,224 $0 4 15 15 15 9 9 0 9 3 11 16 Dec-11 2011 0.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jan-12 0.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feb-12 3.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Mar-12 3.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Apr-12 3.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 May-12 3.3 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Labor Costs0 1 Jun-12 163.9 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Marshall Jul-12 163.9 0.2 0 Ops 0 0 0 0 0 Help Desk 0 0 0 1 Aug-12 163.9 Annual Monthly Labor 0.2Marshall Extended Marshall Data 0 0 0 Help Desk 0 Desk 8x5 Help Desk 24x7 Event Help 0 0 0 0 System 0 Systems1 Sep-12MONTH FY 2012 PYMT223.9 Total Total 0.2Ops 8x5 0 Weekend 0 8x5 0 8x5 0 0 Event Support 24x7 0 Support0 Training 8x5 Management Engineering 0 0 1 Oct-12 163.9 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Nov-12 163.9 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Dec-12 168.9 $5,067 $4,490 0.2 87 0 188 0 188 0 188 0 0 87 0 87 00 0 87 1 52 1311 Jan-13 168.9 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Dec-11 2012 $6 $5 Jan-12 $6 $5 Feb-12 $69 $5 Mar-12 $69 $5 Apr-12 $69 $5 May-12 $69 $5 Jun-12 $229 $5 Jul-12 $229 $5 Aug-12 • Excel functions and visual basic code support automatic allocation of resources $229 $5 Sep-12 Oct-12 over time and$1,203 $561 of inflated monthly and annual costs 2012 $229 $229 estimation $5 $5 Nov-12 $229 $5 January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 9 Dec-12 $293 $5 $13
    11. 11. Individual Resource Roll-Up Training 8x53.5 32.5 2 CST1.5 Training 8x5 3 1 2.50.5 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647 1.5 CST Systems Engineering 1 12 0.5 10 0 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 6 Systems Engineering 4 2 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 • Each resource rolls-up overall existing and “what-if” missions • Graphical and tabular interface supports procurement planning and review for shortfalls or underutilization of resources January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 10
    12. 12. Aggregate Resource Roll-Up Labor Shortfall HD24x7Ev MWEOps HD8x5Ev HD24x7 SysMan SysEng Security NetEng ActMan HD8x5 SwEng Dbase Mdata MOps Tr8x5 CMG IV&V CST = >3 = 2>x ≤ 3 = 1>x ≤ 2 = 0.5>x ≤ 1 = -0.5>x ≤0.5 = -1>x ≤ -0.5 Labor = -2>x ≤ -1 = -2>x ≤-3 = <-3 10.00-12.00 8.00-10.00 Aug-15 6.00-8.00 4.00-6.00 • Aggregate roll-up of resources Jun-15 Apr-15 Feb-15 Dec-14 Oct-14 2.00-4.00 supports review and reallocation Aug-14 Jun-14 0.00-2.00 Apr-14 Feb-14 Dec-13 Oct-13 Aug-13 Jun-13 Apr-13 Feb-13 Dec-12 Oct-12 Aug-12 Jun-12 Apr-12 Feb-12 Dec-11CST Marshall Ops 8x5 xtended Weekend Marshall Data 8x5 Help Desk 8x5 Help Desk 24x7 8x5 Event Support 4x7 Event Support Training 8x5 tem Management stems Engineering tware Engineering twork Engineering CMG abase Production unt Management IV&V Security January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 11
    13. 13. Service Level Resource Definition Hardware Resource Unit Cost Max Units Unit Basic Gold SilverServer/PC/Printer/LRU Workstation $5,000 30 Item 1 1 1 (per user) 22" Monitor $1,000 30 Item 2 2 2 (per user) Servers $120,000 30 Item 0.05 0.10 0.07 (per user) Printers $1,000 30 Item 0.20 0.50 0.33 (per user) Spares - Revisit $50,000 30 Dollars 1 3 2 (insitutional)Wall Displays Clock $1,000 30 Item 1 1 1 (default per operations area) Ethernet adapter $1,000 30 Item 1 1 1 (default per operations area)Video Distribution Net switches $1,000 30 Item 1 1 1 (per server) Net Fiber Port $1,000 30 Item 1 1 1 (per server) Net routers $1,000 30 Item 1 1 1 (per server) Cabling/ Connectors $1,000 30 Item 1 1 1 (per server)Long Term Storage /Ent.Tape Lib TB HAL/DMF invest. $1,000 30 Terabyte 10 20 20 (total storage) Tape Media $1,000 30 Pack 1 1 1 (per TB) Media Frame $1,000 30 Item 0.1 0.1 0.1 (per TB) Annual HW Support $12,000 30 Terabyte 1 3 2 (per TB) Cost per Shift Maximum Yearly Cost Units Basic Gold $K Units $K Defaults Help Desk 8x5 24x7 Position CST CST $24,038 2 $250,000 Shift 0.2 0.5 Ops 8x5 MOps $12,500 9 $130,000 Shift 1 3 Extended Weekend MWEOps $12,500 4 $130,000 Shift 0 0 Data 8x5 Mdata $12,500 6 $130,000 Shift 1 3 Help Desk 8x5 HD8x5 $9,615 4 $100,000 Shift 1 3 Help Desk 8x5 Event Support HD8x5Ev $9,615 1 $100,000 Shift 0 0 Help Desk 24x7 HD24x7 $9,615 5 $100,000 Shift 0 2 Help Desk 24x7 Event Support HD24x7Ev $9,615 1 $100,000 Shift 0 0 • Underlying databases provide definition of available resources, associated costs, default service level allocations January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 12
    14. 14. Budget Roll-Up Across All Missions Budget Profile 60,000 Project D 50,000 Project D Project C 40,000 Project B $ (K) 30,000 Project A 20,000 Total Current Mission Budget Total Cost 10,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Fiscal Year FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Totals Total New Mission Budget 5,060 13,695 9,524 3,744 3,853 3,965 4,080 4,198 4,320 4,445 56,884 Total Current Mission Budget 21,900 25,100 24,100 23,200 20,200 20,200 2,000 2,000 0 0 138,700 Total Mission Budget 26,960 38,795 33,624 26,944 24,053 24,165 6,080 6,198 4,320 4,445 195,584 Total Cost 38,000 39,102 40,236 41,403 42,603 43,839 45,110 46,419 47,765 49,150 433,627 Budget to Cost Delta -11,040 -307 -6,612 -14,458 -18,551 -19,674 -39,031 -40,221 -43,445 -44,705 -238,043 Available Funds (Capital Investment) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 TotalsProject A 1,203 2,654 750 772 794 817 841 866 891 916 10,504Project B 3,857 8,525 3,602 1,948 2,004 2,063 2,122 2,184 2,247 2,312 30,865Project C 0 2,517 5,172 1,024 1,054 1,085 1,116 1,148 1,182 1,216 15,514Project D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Project D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 • Budget planning is supported by a full roll-up of all current and potential missions January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 13
    15. 15. Summary• Estimating resource requirements and service costs for modern multi- mission centers is a complex problem – Differing mission types – Changing operational paradigms – Expanding technological options• A “cradle to grave” tool can simplify this process for operations center management and service teams by – Providing a flexible interface for specifying mission services and resources – Providing capabilities for quick evaluation of “what-if” scenarios across multiple missions – Providing individual resource roll-up across proposed and existing missions, with a comparison to available resources – Providing an integrated roll-up of control center costs – Integrating the process of understanding operations center costs with estimating resource and service costs for multiple missions January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 14
    16. 16. Summary (cont.) Budget Profile 60,000 Project D 50,000 Project D Project C 40,000 Project B$ (K) 30,000 Project A 20,000 Total Current Mission Budget Total Cost 10,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Fiscal Year Labor Shortfall HD24x7Ev MWEOps HD8x5Ev HD24x7 SysMan SysEng Security NetEng ActMan HD8x5 SwEng Dbase Mdata MOps Tr8x5 CMG IV&V CST = >3 = 2>x ≤ 3 = 1>x ≤ 2 = 0.5>x ≤ 1 = -0.5>x ≤0.5 = -1>x ≤ -0.5 = -2>x ≤ -1 = -2>x ≤-3 = <-3 January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 15
    17. 17. MISSION RESOURCE CAPABILITY ANALYZER Thank You
    18. 18. January 5, 2012 PM Challenge: Capability Modeling 17

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