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  1. 1. Human Exploration FrameworkTeam (HEFT) OverviewDaniel L. Dumbacher, Director, Engineering DirectorateMarshall Space Flight CenterJohn Olson, Ph.D., Director, Directorate Integration OfficeExploration Systems Mission Directorate, NASA HeadquartersStephen Jurczyk, Deputy Center DirectorNASA Langley Research CenterNASA Project Management ChallengeFebruary 2011
  2. 2. Agenda• HEFT Overview• Benefit Figures of Merit• Constraint Figures of Merit• Key Outcomes• General Findings• Human Space Flight Cost and Schedule History• HEFT I Integrated Cost Assessment Comparison• What Needs to Be Addressed to Be Affordable• History of Lean Developments• Lean Cost and Schedule Implementation Approaches• Summary5-486373 2
  3. 3. HEFT Overview• HEFT Strategy: Create a decision framework for human space exploration that drives out the knowledge, capabilities, and infrastructure NASA needs to send people to explore multiple destinations in the Solar System in an efficient, sustainable way• HEFT Goal: Generate a process that evolves into a long term, permanent NASA activity to support human space flight (HSF) strategic planning – Initially focused on standing up the organization, getting it functioning, and conducting a full iteration of the process – Outcome of the process was recommendations for human space flight capabilities and missions for 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year horizons, with Mars as the ultimate destination• HEFT Impact: Informed the FY2012 Program Planning, Budget, and Execution process – Identified requirements for technologies and advanced systems capabilities based on investment strategies and design reference architectures for human missions to destinations beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO) – Met Executive Branch guidance, critical Stakeholder objectives, and HSF objectives and constraints – Is sustainable and affordable (fits within projected NASA HSF budget)5-486373 3
  4. 4. Benefit Figures of Merit Extend Human Presence Enhance Economic Impacts Broaden to include multiple destinations Enhance the robustness and expand with initial focus on crewed missions to competitiveness of the U.S. space industry. Near Earth Objects (NEOs). Increase Public Engagement Develop Future Capabilities Seek early and frequent opportunities for Mars for human exploration beyond Earth that Demonstrate technologies and advanced build up in capability over time for a steady systems for human Mars orbital and surface pace of new missions and new destinations. missions. Leverage Domestic Partnerships Improve Scientific Knowledge Build alliances between NASA and other Conduct activities that address research Government agencies, focusing on creating important to the science community. capabilities collaboratively or in a complementary way to reduce Expand Global Partnerships costs, increase utility, or further U.S. Strengthen international collaboration scientific, diplomatic, security, or economic by providing opportunities for participation in interests. technology development and demonstration, systems development, and operations.5-486373 Characterizing Desirable Alternatives 4
  5. 5. Constraint Figures of Merit Affordability Programmatic Sustainability Develop exploration options that can Develop an HSF strategy that ensures be implemented within the bounds of U.S. access to LEO and maintains a balance projected future budgets. between technology and system development activities, with flexible Operational Complexity architectures. Evaluate exploration options based on the number of unique systems, number HSF Capability Sustainment of launches, number of in-space Maintain core HSF capabilities required operations, etc. to develop technologies and advanced systems, and integrate, test, operate, and Programmatic Risk sustain systems for human exploration Technology and advanced systems beyond LEO. development must have adequate budget and schedule margins.5-486373 Describing Top-level Guidelines 5
  6. 6. Key Outcomes• The process of analyzing 9 investment portfolios was effective in exploring a broad technical and programmatic trade space – Evaluated them against Executive Branch Guidance, Critical Stakeholder Interests, and Benefit and Constraint Figures of Merit• Derived key insights from a large, complex dataset and identified options for: – Enabling and Enhancing Technology Development and Demonstration activities – Advanced Systems Developments including Crewed Spacecraft and Launch Vehicle – Changing the way NASA does business and opportunities for partnerships with other U.S. government agencies and international partners• Further work is required to refine the Design Reference Missions and cost and schedule estimates – This can eventually lead to a NASA integrated architecture for human exploration beyond LEO Charting a Balanced Path Forward5-486373 6
  7. 7. General Findings• Affording human exploration within expected budgets is a challenge• NASA human space flight is a demanding and risky enterprise requiring sustained resources• Safety is the cornerstone of viable options• Commercial crew helps test our assumptions (like NetFlix did to Blockbuster)• With ~$40B available over 10 years, significant progress can be made• “Lean” developments are essential to extending and sustaining human presence beyond LEO• Transitioning approaches used on relatively small projects to large (higher dollar value) programs/projects can have big payoffs Changing the Agency’s Business Model5-486373 7
  8. 8. Human Space Flight Cost and Schedule HistoryCost Growth Schedule Growth• Average: 219% or 3.19 times • Average: 103% or 2.03 times the original estimate the original estimate• Median: 207% • Median: 108% growth NASA Human-Rated Systems Improving Results by Doing Things Differently5-486373 8
  9. 9. HEFT I Integrated Cost Assessment Comparison DRM 1 DRM 2 DRM 3 Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3 Charting Original 9 Investment Portfolios5-486373 9
  10. 10. What Needs to Be Addressed to Be Affordable Program/Project Risk Averse Requirements/ Personnel/ Management Culture Trades Staffing Clear Planning for Vision vs. Cost as an Independent Program / Project Requirements/Rationale at Near-term Execution Variable in Design Trades Leadership the Right Level Clear & Simple Lines Understanding Implications Cost as Independent Variable Right People for of Accountability of Safety in Design Trades the Role Business/Contractual Early Issue Identification Multiple Reviews Long-term SkillRelationships & Methods & Resolution & Approvals Maintenance/Development & Incentives Technical Oversight Delegation Industry vs. Government Use of In-House Capability & Insight of Authority Standards to Support Programs Use of Modern Certificate of Flight Cost Requirements Technology Readiness Process & EstimatingSmaller Projects / Periodic Achievable Milestones Fitting Squarely in the Budget Box is an Overarching Requirement
  11. 11. History of Lean Developments Saturn/Apollo Block Approach DC-X, DC-XA Successful building-block path to the Moon Design and development in 4 years, DC-XA modifications and flight in 2 years STS External Tank Block Upgrades New tank design delivered in 4 years X-34 Ready to fly in 5 years Mars Exploration Rovers 3+ years to flight MLAS 21 months to flight Deep Space-1 3+ years to flight Ares I-X 18 months to flight LRO/LCROSS 3.5 years to flight Fastsat 18 months to flight X-37, X-37B Only reusable Space Vehicle since Orbiter Project M Ready to fly in 1 year X-38 Successful drop tests in 3-4 years5-486373 Learning Lessons from Experience 11
  12. 12. Lean Cost and Schedule Implementation Approaches• Evolutionary Block Progression – Applies to a variety of projects, allowing a stepped approach to requirements maturation, incremental capability, technology infusion, development, and implementation• Parallel Government/Industry Development – Allows rapid start by Government, while maturing requirements and competitive acquisition strategy• Flying Class C/D, or “First Build”, and Sticking to the Designation – Applies to key technology demonstration missions and allows for rapidly advancing a selection or suite of technologies — proto-flight hardware• Learning Curves – Applies to multiple unit production and also can drive infrastructure requirements early in the process via pathfinders• Skunkworks Approach – Estimated schedule decreased by more than 20% • For large systems, long-lead items dominate schedule Finding Efficiencies that Maximize Budget5-486373 & Reduce Time to Market 12
  13. 13. Summary• NASA and the Nation will be in a constrained budget environment for the foreseeable future• NASA’s program management and technical community must find ways to meet objectives with more efficient use of resources• The future of human exploration is in the balance Living Within Our Means While Delivering Excellence5-486373 13
  14. 14. For more information: www.nasa.gov5-486373 14