NALEO Briefing on the Latino Vote


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  • Good morning, thank yous to AP, PG&E, and audience.Here to talk about the role of Latinos in 2012 – as candidates, and as voters.
  • Impact of 2010 Census and ongoing Latino pop growthSouth sees dramatic Latino growth – NC Latino population doubles (111%).
  • This slide is just to set-up this first section of the presentation – Latino pop growth, redistricting, and Latino candidates for Congress.
  • In Arizona, Former Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D) will face Congressman Jeff Flake (R) in the general election race to succeed retiring U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl (R). In Texas, former Solicitor General Ted Cruz (R) faces excellent prospects of becoming the state’s first Latino U.S. Senator.
  • Incumbents who are no longer running (-2): Charlie Gonzalez (D) is retiring. He represents San Antonio areaSilvestre Reyes (D) lost primary to Beto O’Rourke, non Latino. Silvestre represented El Paso. Non-incumbents with excellent prospects for victory (+5): Tony Cardenas (D) new CA-29 – San Fernando ValleyJuan Vargas (D) new CA-51 – San Diego Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) new NM-1 - AlbuquerqueJoaquin Castro (D) new TX-20 – San AntonioWinner of TX-34 Filemon Vela (D) emerged victorious in primary run-off
  • 5 shoe-in victories for Latinos in Nov 2012:1. California CD 29 – LCVAP 50.7% - New Latino opportunity district Located in LA SFV. District is a solid Democrat district. Cardenas is a certain win. 2. California CD 51 – LCVAP 51% - Latino opportunity district - former Filner district Located along the border in San Diego/Imperial County. A solid Democrat district , so Vargas is almost a certain win.3. New Mexico CD 1 – LVAP 43.5% - Latino influence district Located in Albuquerque. The district is a likely D seat and Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) has a great shot at wining in the general 4. Texas CD 20 – LVAP 64.9%– Latino opportunity district Former Charlie Gonzalez district likely to be replaced by Joaquin Castro (D). Located in Downtown San Antonio. Running are Castro and David Rosa (R). The district leans D and Joaquin Castro is certainly to win.5. Texas CD 34 – LVAP 79% - New Latino opportunity district Located along southern Gulf Coast, includes Brownsville and stretches north to GonzalesRunning in the district are 3 Latinos: Filemon Vela (D), Denise Saenz Blanchard (D), Adela Garza (D). The district is a solid D. Filemon vela is considered the frontrunnerOne Loss for Latinos:1. Silvestre Reyes (D) lost CD 16 primary to Beto O’Rourke, non Latino
  • NV CD 3 – LVAP 13.49% - not a Latino opportunity or influence districtLocated in South Las VegasThis is considered a toss up districtOceguera (D) is a competitive challenger to incumbent Joe Heck (R), but Heck has raised more money
  • This slide is just to set-up this first section of the presentation – Latino pop growth, redistricting, and Latino candidates for Congress.
  • Obama won Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada; giving Obama a massive head-start. Clinton then won Florida and Michigan handily, but both states were stripped off their DNCC delegates for moving their nominating primaries to January – Obama wasn’t On Super ”duper” Tuesday, California had largest payout – 370 delegates. Based on our analysis, Obama may have narrowly won CA if it weren’t for strong Latino voter support for Clinton. This win kept her campaign alive, allowing for one of the longest primary battles in history. __________________The Florida GOP nomination primary proved to be a vital win for McCain, and provided the momentum his campaign needed heading into Super Tuesday, after which he emerged as the presumed nominee. Although McCain won five points ahead of Romney, analysis by the NALEO Educational Fund using exit poll data shows that if no Latino had voted in that election, Romney would have won by several percentage points.__________________9.7 million Latinos voted in November– 28% more than 2004. The non-Latino vote increased by 3%.Latino voters comprised 7.4% of all voters in the 2008 general election – up from 6% in 2004.Decisive role in CO and NM; growing influence in IN and VA.
  • 6.6 million Latinos vote – 18.8% more than 2006
  • The NALEO Educational Fund develops its projections based on past voter participation in Presidential elections. This conservative methodology has proved effective at estimating turnout – in 2008 the NALEO projection fell short of actual turnout by 5%. In the 2010 midterm election, the NALEO projection was 2% short of actual turnout.At the national level, we project that more than 12 million Latinos will vote in the general election – a record number, and an increase of 26% from the historic 2008 election.
  • In California – the nation’s most populous state and the 8th largest economy in the world – almost 1 million additional Latinos will vote in November, representing more than 1 in 4 voters statewide.
  • Latino electorate large enough in some competitive states enough to determine outcome of electionLatinos will be critical in many other races, including Nevada’s.
  • Latino potential electorate is growing rapidly, and more Latinos vote with each election. For 2012, we project record gains. 23.5 million citizens of voting-age, 14 million registered voters, 12.2 million actual votersHowever, the gap between Latino and non-Latino voter turnout persists – we only see incremental gains in the effort to close the gap. This is unacceptable.Without coordinated efforts to address this crisis, our community’s political participation will take generations to reach parity with the non-Latino electorate.
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  • Our current hotline hours – 8am to 11pm Eastern, 7 days/weekHotlines are linked on E-Day, to bifurcate English and Spanish calls.
  • NLCET is National strength and coordination, with local strategy and executionLocal work is coordinated through local tables.Multi-layered plan including voter protection, media outreach, research, and emphasis on VR and GOTV.Goal of registering and turning-out over 750,000 Latino voters.
  • NALEO Briefing on the Latino Vote

    2. 2. Latino Population Growth Reapportionment
    3. 3. Latino Candidates for U.S. Senate
    4. 4. Potential Latino Gains in Congress
    5. 5. New Districts
    6. 6. Potential Landscape Changers
    7. 7. Gains & Losses in State Senates
    8. 8. Gains & Losses inState Houses & Assemblies
    9. 9. Gains & Losses inState Houses & Assemblies
    10. 10. Gains & Losses inState Houses & Assemblies
    11. 11. Latino Voter Impact – 2008 ReapportionmentPhoto by the Associated Press
    12. 12. Latino Voter Impact – 2010 Reapportionment••••
    13. 13. Projected Latino Vote – 2012•••
    14. 14. Projected Latino Vote – 2012Analysis by the NALEO Educational Fund, using Current Population Survey data
    15. 15. Latino Voter Impact – 2012Registration data accessed from Voter Activation Network (VAN), except Nevada , which is from the Pew Hispanic Center
    16. 16. Latino Voter ParticipationAnalysis by the NALEO Educational Fund, using Current Population Survey data
    17. 17. Impact of Voting Policy Changes Photo from ThinkProgress.orgScott Threlkeld, The Times-Picayune
    18. 18. Impact of Voting Policy Changes• Photo from State of Wisconsin• Photo from fusionpanda/Flickr
    19. 19. Voting Policies – When and Where
    20. 20. Voter Rights Protection
    21. 21. Mass Mobilization National & Local Media Campaign PSAs, Ads, Programs NationalLocal Partner Infrastructure Assistance Info via Hotline,Services, events Web, SMS
    22. 22. Direct Engagement