The State of the Economic recovery

299 views

Published on

Ted Abernathy's 2012 NC NAIOP State Conference Presentation

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
299
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
7
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

The State of the Economic recovery

  1. 1. The State of theEconomic Recovery 2012 NAIOP State Conference Ted Abernathy tabernathy@southern.org
  2. 2. Trends Changing OurWorldComplexity Demographic ShiftsTechnology (Speed) Intensifying CompetitionUrbanization Natural ResourcesGlobal Interdependence The Omni CustomerCorporate Integration Changing InstitutionsRadical Decentralization The Role of TalentSpecialization Community Resilience
  3. 3. “Everyone has a plan ‘till they get hit in the mouth” Mike Tyson
  4. 4. The Last Decade Was….Not Good 30% 27% Employment 22% 25% 20% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -1% -5% 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 Source: Peter Linneman, NAI Global
  5. 5. The Last Decade Was….Not Good70% 61% Real HH60% 47% Income50%40% 27%30%20%10% 0%-10% -3%-20% 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 Source: Peter Linneman, NAI Global
  6. 6. The Last Decade Was….Not Good 45% 40% 40% Real GDP 40% 34% 35% 30% 25% 20% 17% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 Source: Peter Linneman, NAI Global
  7. 7. USA Total Nonfarm Payroll140,000 In thousands120,000100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1961 1064 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Source: BLS, Jan 2012
  8. 8. Unemployment Summary January 2011 National Unemployment Rate By Education Unemployment rate 13.8% 14% in January, 8.3%, 12% down from 9.4% in 10% 8.7% December 2010 8% 7.7% For Whites (7.4%), 6% 4.1% Blacks (13.6%), 4% 2% Hispanics (10.5%) 0% Less than HS Grad Some BA Plus HS College Source: BLS Jan 2012
  9. 9. Employment Monthly Net Change 2000- Jan 2012600 In thousands400200 0-200-400-600-800 2012 2000 2008 Source: BLS Nov 2011
  10. 10. US % Employment ChangeDecember 2010-December 2011 3.0% 2.6% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%-0.5% -0.6%-1.0% Al Co M Tr Fi Le Go Pr Ed an an lE ad of is ns /H ve u ur ci /B e/ m ea tru rn fa al e/ Tr us pl l th m ct ct Ho oy Se an en ur Se io Se m sp s/ rv in t n rv Ut en ic rv g i ta ice es il ic t lit es s y Employees on nonfarm payrolls by state and selected industry sector, seasonally adjusted Source: BLS, Jan, 2012
  11. 11. Total % Manufacturing Employment Change December 2010-December 20112.00% 1.78% The American South1.80% 1.60% States and Territories 1.50% represent 34.3% of all1.60%1.40% US Manufacturing employment in Dec1.20% 20111.00%0.80%0.60%0.40%0.20%0.00% United States American South Non-Southern States Employees on nonfarm payrolls by state and selected industry sector, seasonally adjusted Source: BLS, Jan, 2012
  12. 12. Projected USA Job Growth 2012 3% 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2% 2% 1.1% 1% 0.6% 1% 0% -1% -0.3% -1% -0.9% -2% -2% Construction Manufact Trade Finance/Ins Prof/Tech Education/Health Leisure/Hospitality Government Source: Moody’s Analytics, Jan 2012
  13. 13. The Stock Market
  14. 14. (NATIONAL)
  15. 15. The United States in the Global Economy
  16. 16. Trends Changing OurWorldComplexity Demographic ShiftsTechnology (Speed) Intensifying CompetitionUrbanization Natural ResourcesGlobal Interdependence The Omni CustomerCorporate Integration Changing InstitutionsRadical Decentralization The Role of TalentSpecialization Community Resilience
  17. 17. Top % GDP Growers in 20121) Macau2) Mongolia3) Libya4) Iraq5) Angola6) Niger7) China8) Ethiopia9) Rwanda10) Laos Source: The Economist, The World in 2012
  18. 18. Global Unemployment Rates12% 10.7% 9.8%10% 8.3%8% 7.6% 6.6%6% 5.5% 5.2% 4.6% 4.1%4%2%0% US Japan China Canada Euro Area Australia India Brazil Russia Source: Economist March 10, 2012
  19. 19. Projected GDP Growth 20129% 8.2% 6.9%7%5% 3.1% 3.3% 3.2%3% 2.1% 1.7% 2.0%1%-1% -0.6%-3%-5% US Japan China Canada Euro Area Australia India Brazil Russia Source: Economist March 10, 2012
  20. 20. Projected Consumer Prices 20129% 8.1%7% 5.4% 5.7%5% 3.8% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.8%3%1%-1% -0.3%-3%-5% US Japan China Canada Euro Area Australia India Brazil Russia Source: Economist March 10, 2012
  21. 21. Impact of the “Great Recession” Difference in Real GDP/Person 2007-2012 60% 51% 50% 40% 34% 30% 20% 14% 10% 10% 4% 0% -10% -5% -3% -3% -1% -20% United United France Japan Germany Russia Brazil India China Kingdom States Source: The Economist, The World in 2012
  22. 22. U.S. Exports 2009-2011$200,000$180,000 44% Increase$160,000$140,000$120,000$100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $- 2009- 2009- 2009- 2010- 2010- 2011- 2011- Dec Jan June Nov April Sept Feb July Exports Source: BLS Sept 2011
  23. 23. NC Exports as a % of GMP- 2010 14% 13.5% 12.0% 12% 10.7% 10% 7.5% 8.1% 8.1% 7.5% 8% 5.7% 5.6% 6% 4.6% 4% 3.4% 2.6% 2% 1.5% 0% Asheville Burlington Charlotte Durham Fayetteville Goldsboro Greensboro Greenville Hickory Raleigh Rocky Mount Wilmington Winston Salem Source: US Metro Economies. HIS Insight, Jan 2012
  24. 24. Trends Changing OurWorldComplexity Demographic ShiftsTechnology (Speed) Intensifying CompetitionUrbanization Natural ResourcesGlobal Interdependence The Omni CustomerCorporate Integration Changing InstitutionsRadical Decentralization The Role of TalentSpecialization Community Resilience
  25. 25. North Carolina in a Global Economy
  26. 26. Southern States 5-Year Employment Changes500,000 451,100 Total -1,478,000 lost jobs300,000 57,000 23,000100,000 -43,000 -3,600-100,000 -21,200 -45,900 -59,800 -85,100 -83,700 -114,000 -134,800 -127,200-300,000 -222,500 -307,000-500,000-700,000 -762,300-900,000 AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: U.S. BLS, Dec, Measured Nov 2006- Nov 2011
  27. 27. Southern States 5-Year Employment Changes 6% 4.4% 4% 3.0% 1.5% 2% 0% -0.5%-2% -1.8% -2.5% -2.3% -2.2%-4% -3.8% -4.4% -4.6%-6% -4.9% -5.7% -5.4%-8% -7.5%-10% -9.5%-12% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: U.S. BLS, Dec, Measured Nov 2006- Nov 2011
  28. 28. Southern States 1-Year Employment Changes250,000 Total +578,300 gained jobs 205,100200,000150,000 114,600100,000 47,400 41,700 50,000 31,800 31,200 35,600 24,700 18,900 6,900 7,700 17,800 10,100 2,700 0 -3,900 -14,000-50,000 AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: U.S. BLS, Dec, Measured Dec 2010- Dec 2011
  29. 29. Southern States 1-YearEmployment Projections 20123% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0%2% 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 0.8% 1.0%1% 0.6%0% -0.1%-1% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: Moody’s Analysis and USA Today Jan 11,2012
  30. 30. % Employment Change Last 10 Years 2000-201013% 10.6% 7.4% 8% 2.0% 2.3% 3% 1.0%-2%-7% -5.9% -7.0%-12% Advantage West Charlotte Eastern Northeast Southeast Piedmont Triad Research Triangle Source: NCESC
  31. 31. % Employment Growth Last 12 Months Dec 2010- Dec 2011 3% 2.0% 2% 1.4% 2% 1.0% 1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 1% 0% Advantage West Charlotte Eastern Northeast Southeast Piedmont Triad Research Triangle Source: NCESC
  32. 32. % Unemployment By Region 2000- December 201114%12%10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 00 01 06 02 03 04 05 07 08 09 10 nt rre 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Cu Advantage West Charlotte Eastern Northeast Southeast Piedmont Triad Research Triangle Source: NCESC
  33. 33. Regional Comparisons
  34. 34. Educational Attainment-% BA plus 50% 41% 40% 32% 31% 26% 27% 30% 30% 27% 24% 24% 24% 23% 20% 10% 0% Piedmont Triad Birmingham Charlotte Greenville/Spartan Jacksonville Louisville Memphis Nashville VA Beach Raleigh/Durham Richmond Source: US Census, 2009, PTP Research
  35. 35. Research Activity$2,000 In $millions $1,667$1,500$1,000 $405 $500 $255 $186 $149 $264 $197 $160 $23 $51 $51 $0 Piedmont Triad Birmingham Charlotte Greenville/Spartan Jacksonville Louisville Memphis Nashville VA Beach Raleigh/Durham Richmond Source: NSF, PTP Research
  36. 36. Metropolitan GDP Per Capita 2010 $80,000 $70,260 $70,000 $58,607 $60,000 $45,935 $45,386 $45,446 $50,000 $42,619 $42,833 $40,070 $40,861 $44,011 $42,722 $41,990 $38,943 $40,000 $36,331 $33,206 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Greensboro/HP Winston Salem Birmingham Charlotte Greenville Spartanburg Jacksonville Knoxville Louisville Memphis Nashville VA Beach Raleigh Durham Richmond Source: BEA, December 2011 Chained 2005 dollars
  37. 37. Source: BEA, December 2011Metropolitan GDP Changes 1.6% Richmond 6.6% Durham 5.2% Raleigh 0.4% VA Beach 4.6% Nashville 1.9% Memphis 3.6% Louisville 2010 4.2% Knoxville 2.1% Jacksonville 3.7% Spartanburg 3.9% Greenville 2.6% Charlotte 0.8% Birmingham 2.4% Winston Salem 3.9% Greensboro/HP 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
  38. 38. Source: NCESC Accom/FoodPTP/RTRP/Charlotte Job Arts/Enter Health Shifts 1990-2010 Education Prof/Tech Finance/Ins Charlotte Information Trans/Ware RTRP Trade Manufact PTP Construction Utilities Government 170% 120% 70% 20% -30% -80%
  39. 39. Trends Changing OurWorldComplexity Demographic ShiftsTechnology (Speed) Intensifying CompetitionUrbanization Natural ResourcesGlobal Interdependence The Omni CustomerCorporate Integration Changing InstitutionsRadical Decentralization The Role of TalentSpecialization Community Resilience
  40. 40. Demographics
  41. 41. Growth- Demographics Between 2010-2020 3 out of every 4 new workers in the USA will be Latino
  42. 42. USA Annual Population Growth1.2% 0.97% 0.96% 0.95%1.0% 0.88% 0.83%0.8% 0.73%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0% 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 Source: Brookings Jan 20, 2012
  43. 43. Growth Last decade US population grew at the lowest rate since the great depression
  44. 44. Annual Population Growth3%3%2%2%1%1%0% 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 USA NC SC VA GA Source: Brookings Jan 20, 2012
  45. 45. Annual Population % Change Rates 2001-20105.0% Raleigh4.0% Charlotte3.0%2.0%1.0% USA0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Greensboro Winston-Salem Raleigh Durham Greenville Spartanburg Charlotte National Source: U.S. Bureau Intercensal Population Estimates, SYNEVA Economics, Nov 2011
  46. 46. 2000-2010 Population Growth 500,000 427,590 411,283 400,000 300,000 278,145 222,846 200,000 161,294 136,127 121,591 107,562 110,896 95,313 75,809 100,000 0 Greensboro&WS Birmingham Charlotte Greenville/Spar Jacksonville Louisville Memphis Nashville VA Beach Raleigh/Dur Richmond Source: Proximity, 2012
  47. 47. Source: Proximity, 20122000-2010 Percentage 15% Richmond 18% Population Growth Durham 42% Raleigh 6% VA Beach 21% Nashville 9% Memphis 10% Louisville 20% Jacksonville 12% Spartanburg 14% Greenville 32% Charlotte 7% Birmingham 13% Winston salem 12% 50% Greensboro 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
  48. 48. Growth- Demographics
  49. 49. Southern States5-Year State House Price Index Changes 10% 3.2% 3.3% 3.9% 0% -0.1% -0.9% -2.4% -5.9% -10% -9.0% -7.8% -10.3% -10.3% -11.0% -13.6% -20% -23.0% -30% -25.7% -40% -44.2% -50% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Seasonally Adjusted, purchase only 2011 3Q Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Dec 2011
  50. 50. Housing Prices Peak to 3 rd Qrt. 2011 10% 0% -10% -14.8% -14.2% -13.9% -15.3% -14.4% -20% -16.6%-18.8% -20.3% -21.5% -25.8% -25.9% -30% -29.0% -40% -41.7% -50% 100 Metro Greensboro/HP Birmingham Charlotte Greenville Jacksonville Knoxville Louisville Memphis Nashville VA Beach Raleigh Richmond Average Source: Brookings Metro Monitor, Third Quarter 2011
  51. 51. Housing PricesTrough to 3rd Qrt. 2011 Recovery3%2% 1.2%1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%0%-1%-2%-3% 100 Metro Greensboro/HP Birmingham Charlotte Greenville Jacksonville Knoxville Louisville Memphis Nashville VA Beach Raleigh Richmond Average Source: Brookings Metro Monitor, Third Quarter 2011
  52. 52. Home Prices Forecast 2012 0% -1% -2% -3% -2.8% -3.1% -2.8% -3.2% -4% -3.8% -4.3% -4.4% -5% -4.5% -5.3% -5.3% -6% -6.1% -7% -8% -7.5% Greensboro Birmingham Charlotte Greenville Jacksonville Knoxville Louisville Memphis Nashville VA Beach Raleigh Richmond Source: Housing Predictor, December 27, 2011
  53. 53. Rankings and Branding
  54. 54. Branding- Ranking, Desirable Places for Doing Business Number of Listings in 14 Top Rankings Milken Institute: Best Performing 8- Austin, Denver, Seattle Cities Brookings: Metro Monitor 7- Raleigh CIO: Top 10 Cities for Technology 6- Boston, Charlotte, Dallas, Oklahoma City, jobs San Antonio Forbes: The Best Cities for Jobs 5- Houston, Lincoln, New York, Pittsburg, Salt Gigaom: Top 10 Cities with the Best Lake City Broadband Fast Company: Fast Cities of 2011 4- Albuquerque, Anchorage, Baltimore, Newgeography: America’s Biggest Bismarck, Bloomington, Boulder, College Brain Magnets Station, Colorado Springs, Columbia. Forbes: Best Places for Businesses Durham, El Paso, Fargo, Huntsville, Little and Careers Rock, McAllen, Omaha, San Diego Relocate America: Top 10 Recovery Cities 3- Ames, Augusta, Baton Rouge, Bethesda, Newgeography: Best 25 Cities for job Buffalo, Charleston, Corpus Christi, Council Growth Bluffs, Des Moines, Fayetteville, Forbes: America’s Most Innovative Fayetteville, Fort Collins, Fort Worth, Cities Hartford, Honolulu, Iowa City, Jacksonville CNNMoney: Best Places to Live NC, Kansas City, Kennewick, Killeen, Forbes: Most Wired Cities Lafayette, Las cruces, Lawton, Lexington, Area Development: Select Regional Logan, Louisville, Morgantown, Nashville, Surveys Philadelphia, Provo, Ogden, Sioux Falls, St Louis, St Joseph, Springfield, VA Beach, Yakima Source: Area Development Summer 2011
  55. 55. What Is the New Normal?“The future is not some place we are going to, but one we are creating.” John Schaar
  56. 56. 40 Years Ago Alvin Toffler Had a Few Thoughts “Is the dizzying disorientation brought on by the premature arrival of the future, a product of the greatly accelerated rate of change in society.”
  57. 57. Elephants and Donkeys and the Tea Party (and Occupy) Oh My!
  58. 58. “The latent causes of faction are thus sown in the nature of man… A zeal for different opinions concerning religion, concerning government, and many other points.” James Madison, Federalist #10
  59. 59. The American Dream“life should be better and richerand fuller for everyone, withopportunity for each accordingto ability or achievement,regardless of social class orcircumstances of birth.” American Dream, James Truslow Adams, 1931
  60. 60. Vision For America Take 10 seconds and think about America in 2050
  61. 61. Newsweek Magazine
  62. 62. Rising Above the Gathering Storm, Revisited “When I compare our high schools to what I see when I am traveling abroad, I’m terrified for our workforce of tomorrow.” (Bill Gates) Source: Members of the Committee, Prepared for the National Academy of Science, 2010
  63. 63. “Whether you believe you can do a thing or not, you are right.” Henry Ford
  64. 64. Southern Growth’s 40th Anniversary Follow us on FaceBook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and at Southern.org Join as an Associate Member Starting in January Commentaries
  65. 65. Southern Growth Policies Board Created by Southern Governors in 1971 Help communities understand the changing context of competitiveness Always looking for members and projects www.southern.orgPublic policy is about making choices, Southern Growth informs choice

×