This presentation includes:Background information on the Employment Projections Program, its products, and the overarching process used to develop the projections.Resources to find more information about the BLS projections
The BLS Employment Projections Program produces a new set of 10-year projections every 2 years.The 2010-20 National Employment Matrix covers over 700 detailed occupations and 300 detailed industries. (Exact numbers are 749 occupations and 328 industries.)The projections form the basis for data and outlook information in the Occupational Outlook Handbook, with a new edition of the Handbook released shortly after each new set of projections is published. (The 2012-13 edition of the Handbook, prepared using 2010-20 projections, is expected to be released in late March 2012.)Other users of the projections include:Career counselors and students making career choice decisionsMid-career jobseekers looking to switch occupationsState educational program planners reviewing curriculum
A wide variety of people use employment projections data. This includes but is not limited to:Career counselors and students making career choice decisionsMid-career jobseekers looking to switch occupationsState educational program planners reviewing curriculumResearchers interested in how the economy is changing
This graph shows occupational groups which grew by at least 2 percent from 2006 to 2010; all of these groups are projected to see continued growth through 2020. The two groups with the fastest growth from 2006 to 2010 were healthcare practitioners and technical occupations, and healthcare support occupations. These two groups are projected to continue to see strong growth, adding a combined 3.5 million jobs from 2010-20 after gaining 1.1 million from 2006-10.
The BLS introduced a new education and training classification system with the 2010-20 projections. The system was revised to show the different dimensions of education and training, rather than combining them into one assignment, and to allow for educational distinctions between occupations that typically require a high school diploma and those that do not. The new system consists of three categories of information that BLS analysts have assigned to each detailed occupation Typical education needed for entry – eight levelsDoctoral or professional degreeMaster’s degreeBachelor’s degreeAssociate’s degreePostsecondary non-degree awardSome college, no degreeHigh school diploma or equivalentLess than high school Work experience in a related occupation – four periods of timeMore than 5 years1 to 5 yearsLess than 1 yearNone Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation – six possible assignmentsInternship/ResidencyApprenticeshipLong-term on-the-job trainingModerate-term on-the-job trainingShort-term on-the-job trainingNone
AOHS industry update
Healthcare Workforce 2012-2020 Carole Stacy MSN, MA, RN National Consortium for Health Science Education
Healthcare is 18% of the US Economy• Demand for healthcare workers will increase in the next 10 years, twice as fast as the economy.• Why? We are living longer, the elderly use more healthcare than younger and adults 75 to 84 use 3 times as much as all other age groups put together. To meet the demand for care the number of healthcare workers will have to expand 30%.
Jobs in healthcare are diverse• Doctors• Nurses• Allied Health: PT, OT, Clinical Laboratory, Behavioral Health, Dieticians• Healthcare Support: Nurse aids, home health aides, medical assistants, community health workers.• Related jobs: Accountants, IT, medical equipment, technicians.
Healthcare is economically polarized• High-skill, high-wage professional and technical• Low-skill, low-wage support jobsThey share similar interests and values but verydifferent levels of knowledge, skills and abilitiesrequired. As a result the transition from onelevel to another is difficult and a career pathwayfrom one to the other is virtually nonexistent.
Professional and technical workers• Earn good wages, 50% earn more than $60,000• Less than 20% earn less than $38,000
Education• Buy 2020 a bachelor’s degree will be required for a quarter of healthcare jobs. (This demand trails only STEM fields and education)• A graduate degree will be required for at least a third of healthcare jobs.• By 2020 over 90% of healthcare jobs will require postsecondary education and training.• Doctorates are now required by pharmacists, audiologists, PT, OT, Speech Language Pathologists.
Upskilling in Nursing• Trend to the BSN• Trend away from LPNs• ADN an acceptable place to start but not a terminal degree• BSN or MSN is required for management or administration• Nurse Practioners currently are masters prepared but are moving to the Doctorate of Nursing Practice (DNP)
Largest increase demand• Nursing (direct care)• Nurse Practioners (APRN)• Physician AssistantsWhy?• Increase in the need for primary care, fewer physicians choosing primary care…….• Rural and underserved areas
Diversity is a big challenge in healthcare Gender• Nursing needs more men• Physicians need more women All professions need more Race/Ethnicity• Hispanic most underrepresented (10%)• African-American (20%)
What can we do in secondary education?• Academic rigor (science and math, writing )• Teamwork• Cultural competence• Reality check (the most difficult)• Start early
firstname.lastname@example.org Healthcare Georgetown University Center on Education and Workforce
Bureau of Labor Statistics Overview of Healthcare Projections Erin Lane Economist Employment Projections Program Bureau of Labor Statistics 7/17/2012
Overview• Background information• Industry employment• Occupational employment• Education and Training• Resources for additional information 13
Employment Projections Background• 10-year projections made every 2 years• 2010-20 projections cover over 700 occupations and 300 industries• Projections are used to produce the Occupational Outlook Handbook—which has been published since 1949 14
Users of Employment Projections Data• Career counselors and students making career choice decisions• Mid-career jobseekers looking to switch occupations• Education and training officials to make decisions on policy, funding, and program offerings• Researchers interested in how the economy is changing 15
Employment Projections Products• Occupational Outlook Handbook• Occupational Outlook Quarterly• Long-term employment projections by industry and occupation• Technical materials— replacement rates, education and training categories, and more 16
Employment by Industry Sector: 2010 Thousands of wage and salary jobs State and local government 19,513.1Professional and business services 16,688.0 Health care and social assistance 16,414.5 Retail trade 14,413.7 Leisure and hospitality 13,019.6 Manufacturing 11,524.0 Financial activities 7,630.2 Other services 6,031.3 Construction 5,525.6 Wholesale trade 5,456.1 Transportation and warehousing 4,183.3 Educational services 3,149.6 Federal government 2,968.0 Information 2,710.9 Service providing Mining 655.9 Goods producing Utilities 551.8 17
Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20 Thousands of wage and salary jobs Health care and social assistance 5,639.4 Professional and business services 3,809.0 Construction 1,839.5 Retail trade 1,768.5 State and local government 1,641.7 Leisure and hospitality 1,342.7 Service providing Transportation and warehousing 852.9 Goods producing Other services 819.4 Educational services 819.2 Financial activities 780.4 Wholesale trade 744.1 Information 140.3 Mining 24.8 Utilities -35.7 Manufacturing -73.1 Federal government -372.0 18
Percent Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20 Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Health care and social assistance 3.0% Construction 2.9% Educational services 2.3% Professional and business services 2.1% Transportation and warehousing 1.9% Wholesale trade 1.3% Other services 1.3% Retail trade 1.2% Total Financial activities 1.0% nonagricultural Leisure and hospitality 1.0% wage and salary growth= State and local government 0.8% 1.4% Information 0.5% Mining 0.4% Service providing Manufacturing -0.1% Goods producing Utilities -0.7% Federal government -1.3% 19
Employment by Major Occupational Group: 2010 Thousands of jobs Office and administrative support 22,602.5 Sales and related 14,915.6Food preparation and serving related 11,150.3 Education, training, and library 9,193.6 Transportation and material moving 9,004.8 Management 8,776.1 Production 8,594.4Healthcare practitioners and technical 7,799.3 Business and financial operations 6,789.2 Construction and extraction 6,328.0 Building and grounds cleaning and… 5,498.5 20
Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational GroupProjected 2010-20 Average, all occupations = 14.3% Healthcare support 34.5% Personal care and service 26.8% Healthcare practitioners and technical 25.9% Community and social service 24.2% Construction and extraction 22.2% Computer and mathematical 22.0% Business and financial operations 17.3% Life, physical, and social science 15.5% Education, training, and library 15.3% Transportation and material moving 14.8% Installation, maintenance, and repair 14.7% 21
Employment Change by Major Occupational Group Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20 Office and administrative support 2,335.7 Healthcare practitioners and technical 2,019.7 Sales and related 1,869.1 Healthcare support 1,443.7 Construction and extraction 1,407.2 Education, training, and library 1,403.7 Personal care and service 1,336.6 Transportation and material moving 1,328.7 Business and financial operations 1,172.5 Food preparation and serving related 1,092.5 Installation, maintenance, and repair 800.2 22
Employment Trends for Occupational Groups whose Employment Increased 2006-10 Percent of 2006 employment 155 150 145 140 Healthcare Support Occupations 135 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 130 Occupations Computer and Mathematical 125 Occupations 120 Personal Care and Service Occupations 115 Life, Physical, and Social Science 110 Occupations Protective Service Occupations 105 100 95 2006 2010 Projected 2020NOTE: BLS does not project specific data for years to 2020. The interim years between 2010 and the 2020 projection 23point are expressed by a straight dashed line only.
Fastest Growing Occupations Percent change, projected 2010-20 Personal care aides 70.5% Home health aides 69.4% Biomedical engineers 61.7% Helpers-- 60.1%brickmasons, blockmasons, stonemasons,… Helpers--carpenters 55.7% Veterinary technologists and technicians 52.0% Reinforcing iron and rebar workers 48.6% Physical therapist assistants 45.7% Helpers-- 45.4% pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and…Meeting, convention, and event planners 43.7% 24
Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20 Registered nurses 711.9 Retail salespersons 706.8 Home health aides 706.3 Personal care aides 607.0 Office clerks, general 489.5 Combined food preparation and… 398.0 Customer service representatives 338.4Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers 330.1 Laborers and freight, stock, and… 319.1 Postsecondary teachers 305.7 25
Fastest Growing Healthcare Occupations Percent change, projected 2010-20 Personal Care Aides 70.5% Home Health Aides 69.4%Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 52.0% Physical Therapist Assistants 45.7% Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 43.5% Occupational Therapy Assistants 43.3% Physical Therapist Aides 43.1% Physical Therapists 39.0% Dental Hygienists 37.7% Audiologists 36.8% 26
Healthcare Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20 Registered Nurses 711.9 Home Health Aides 706.3 Personal Care Aides 607.0 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and… 302.0 Therapists 190.4 Health Practitioner Support… 183.7Licensed Practical and Licensed… 168.5 Physicians and Surgeons 168.3 Medical Assistants 162.9 Pharmacy Technicians 108.3 27
Education and Training Classification New classification system introduced with 2010-20 projections Consists of three categories of information for each occupation: Typical education needed for entry Work experience in a related occupation Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation 28
Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category: 2010 Median annual Thousands of jobs Wages, May 2010 Doctoral or professional degree 4,409.7 $87,500 Masters degree 1,986.0 $60,240 Bachelors degree 22,171.1 $63,430 Associates degree 7,994.6 $61,590 Postsecondary non-degree award 6,524.0 $34,220 Some college, no degree 811.6 $44,350 High school diploma or equivalent 62,089.6 $34,180 Less than high school 37,081.7 $20,070 29
Percent Change in Employment by Typical Entry- level Education Category Average, all occupations = 14.3% Percent change, projected 2010-20Doctoral or professional degree 19.9% Masters degree 21.7% Bachelors degree 16.5% Associates degree 18.0% Postsecondary non-degree 16.9% award Some college, no degree 17.5% High school diploma or 12.2% equivalent Less than high school 14.1% 30
Employment Change by Typical Entry- level Education Category Thousands of jobs, projected 2010-20 Doctoral or professional degree 876.6 Masters degree 431.2 Bachelors degree 3,651.6 Associates degree 1,440.0Postsecondary non-degree award 1,100.9 Some college, no degree 142.2High school diploma or equivalent 7,576.1 Less than high school 5,245.7 31
Education pays…Unemployment rate, 2011 Median weekly earnings, 2011 2.5 Doctoral degree $1,551 2.4 Professional degree $1,665 3.6 Masters degree $1,263 4.9 Bachelors degree $1,053 6.8 Associate degree $768 Some College, no 8.7 $719 degree 9.4 High school diploma $638 Less than high school14.1 $451 diploma NOTE: Data for persons aged Average, all occupations = 7.6 25 and over. Average, all occupations = $797 32
Resources For Additional Information• Occupational Employment Statistics – www.bls.gov/oes• Occupational Outlook Handbook – www.bls.gov/ooh• Employment Projections Program – www.bls.gov/emp• Occupational Outlook Quarterly – www.bls.gov/ooq 33
Contact Information Erin Lane EconomistEmployment Projections Program Bureau of Labor Statistics www.bls.gov/emp 202-691-5703 email@example.com