Be the first to like this
This paper sets forth a synergy of existing statistical theories to obtain a clear-cut model for calculating forecasts with prediction intervals, named the “WK1 model”.
Many predictive models calculate a linear or non-linear trend from the historical data and generate a single, discrete forecast value, being a single dot on this defined trend line (i.e. point forecast).
Our “WK1 model” increases the power of such a single discrete point forecast by adding its probable accuracy with top and bottom limits. The decision-maker obtains thus different ranges of values, each within several pre-defined prediction intervals to assess for that specific outcome probability.