Regional dynamics of oil exploration

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Regional dynamics of oil exploration

  1. 1.
  2. 2. Regional Dynamics of E&P<br /><ul><li>Geology
  3. 3. Geography
  4. 4. International Trading
  5. 5. Resource Curse
  6. 6. Peak Oil Pessimism
  7. 7. Security of Transit Routes
  8. 8. Political Power</li></ul>A Muzahid Khan Presentation<br />START<br />
  9. 9. Is Resource Curse aggravating? <br /><ul><li>Traditional players v/s New players
  10. 10. 53 countries have >5% GDP from mineral exports
  11. 11. Half of them>20% of GDP from mineral exports
  12. 12. Half of OPEC members poorer now than they were in the 1970s. Algeria & Nigeria unraveling
  13. 13. 1/3 of all civil wars in oil producing countries – Algeria, Columbia, Sudan, Iraq; </li></ul>A Muzahid Khan Presentation<br />
  14. 14. The Oily Diet<br />USA - 20.6 mbd (23.9%); 10 mbd (48.5%)<br />China – 7.8 mbd (9.5%); 3.2 mbd (41%)<br />Japan – 5.1 mbd (6%) ; 4.2 mbd (82.3%)<br />South Korea – 2.5 mbd (3%) 2.46 mbd (97%)<br />Germany – 2.39 mbd (2.8%);<br />India - 2.74 mbd (3.3%); 1.8 mbd (65.6%) (Source: BP Stats)<br />A Muzahid Khan Presentation<br />
  15. 15. Peak OIL ?<br />Most optimistic forecasts – 2025<br />Mathew Simmons – 2007-09<br />Hirsch Study - 2025<br />Deffeyes & King Hubbert - 2009<br />World Energy Council – After 2010<br />Campbell - 2010<br />Yergin – Plateau in 2040 or 2050<br />EIA – 2016<br />A Muzahid Khan Presentation<br />
  16. 16. A Muzahid Khan Presentation<br />
  17. 17. US Policy post 9/11<br />US Energy Policy Act 2005 – Tax breaks, Diversification, Federalization<br />Drilling in the Arctic (90 bnbl oil, 1670 tcf gas, 144 bnblnatgas liquids)<br />Rethink on nuclear energy(20,000 mw), corn to ethanol<br />Imports from Gulf, 22%(Canada, S.Arabia, Venezuela ,Mexico & Nigeria make up 62% of US imports<br />US troops out of Saudi Arabia – no longer buddies?<br />Military Bases in Central Asia – Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan???<br />BTC, Nabucco pipelines to ferry oil and gas from Central Asia<br />A Muzahid Khan Presentation<br />
  18. 18. Russian Petrostate<br />5%(or is it more?) of Global Oil Reserves<br />11 mbd production in 2007. Largest producer in the world<br /> >12.9% of Global Oil Production; 7 mbd exported<br />32% of Global Gas Reserves (Gulf 39%)<br />670 bcm gas Production in 2006. 40% exported<br />Importance of Energy in Russia’s Economy<br />40% of GDP,60% of Export Income,40% of Tax Revenues, Low Domestic Prices IncentiviseExports,Oil Revenues Fuel Economic Boom<br />Energy-fascism – Energy as Patrimony and Instrument of foreign policy – Heads I win, tails you lose<br />Yukos, Sakhalin-2, Shtokman, Gazprom’s growing monopoly<br />A Muzahid Khan Presentation<br />
  19. 19. The Chinese Dragon<br />GDP growing around 9.5%<br />7.8 mbd of oil in 2007; Projected to increase to 11 mbd by 2020 acc NDRC (IEA=12 mbd)<br />50% imported; Oil imports growing at 7.5% <br />Aggressively acquiring oil acreages -15% to come from overseas acreages <br />Oil Industry Restructuring, Price Reforms<br />Diplomatic, Strategic, Political Initiatives<br />Oil pipeline to Yunnan from Sittwe (2380 kms)<br />Quantum jumps in trade with Middle East ($20b in 2005 to $135 bn in 2006)<br />A Muzahid Khan Presentation<br />END<br />
  20. 20. Kyoto & Its Implications<br />Kyoto clock ticking away for EU<br />Combustion, the biggest polluter<br />(coal-based generation & oil refining=83% of CO2)<br />Kyoto, Asia and Life after 2012<br />Nuclear as a clean fuel option?<br />Coal to drive Asian economies<br />Gas competing with nuclear, coal in Asia<br />A Muzahid Khan Presentation<br />END<br />
  21. 21. A Muzahid Khan Presentation<br />THE FUTURE<br />HYBRID<br />END<br />

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