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Forecasting

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Forecasting

  1. 1. By: Murage Macharia
  2. 2. Introduction Volume forecasting is a method of predicting the volume of sales for future period. The forecasting must depict the following in order to be practical. The total number of covers. Their choice of menu items. The process of volume forecast resolves itself in two stages. The Initial Forecast Final Forecast Murage Macharia
  3. 3. The Initial Forecast It is done once a week in respect of each day of the following week. It is based on sales histories data relating to advance bookings and finally current trends. When the initial forecast has been completed the predicted sakes are converted into quantities of raw materials, purchase orders are then prepared and sent to the supplier. Murage Macharia
  4. 4. Final Forecast This takes place the day before the actual preparation and service of food, it takes into account the latest development, the weather conditions any left overs suitable or reheating and enables essential adjustment to the initial forecast to be made e.g. supplier orders could be amended. Murage Macharia
  5. 5. Cont…. NB// Volume forecasting is not a perfect method of prediction but it helps to minimize over and under production of food. It is particularly effective in conjunction with a system of cyclic menus. Pre-costing This is a method of controlling food cost in advance of the preparation and services. Murage Macharia
  6. 6. Cont…. Standard Recipe This is a recipe prepared by the establishment for use. It is necessary to ensure consistency in cost in food quality and portion sizes within a particular catering unit. Murage Macharia
  7. 7. Objectives of Volume Forecasting To predict the total number of meals to be sold in each selling outlet of an establishment. To predict the choice of menu items by customers. To facilitate purchasing. To ensure availability of all necessary ingredients. To control food cost in relation to sales. Murage Macharia
  8. 8. Cont…. To enable the food controller to compare the actual volume of business done by each of the selling outlet within the potential volume of business as forecasted and also for management to take action where necessary. The comparison may be by total volume of sales, by total number of customers, by total no of main cost of customers, by total no of main cost of meals. NB// Very few of the objectives are achieved by the establishment causing food cost going higher than the necessary and reduced profit money. Murage Macharia
  9. 9. Aids to Volume Forecast Cyclic Menus These are series of fixed or semi-fixed menus which are repeated at a set period. The length of the period is usually related to the length of the menu. E.g. 21 days for a menu of 3 main courses, 14 days for a menu of 3 main courses. Cyclic menus are often used in canteens, hospitals, schools and restaurants offering table d’hote menus. 1. Murage Macharia
  10. 10. Cont…. The main advantages are: a)By using a cyclic menu a pattern will emerge which will show clear trends in customers likes and dislike of menu items in particularly when offered with a specific range of alternatives. b)The staff requirements may be worked out very accurately especially in the production where necessary materials are required. Murage Macharia
  11. 11. Cont…. 2. Sales histories This is a detailed record of actual sales on potential and actual sales for selling outlets. Its purpose is to provide an accurate record of food produced and sold compared with the forecast figures which can be used as a reference of forecasting future demand. Murage Macharia
  12. 12. Cont…. 3. Standard yield The term yield may be referred to as the edible or the usable part of food item which is available after preparation and cooking. A standard yield is the yield obtainable when a food item is processed in a particular standard method of preparation, cooking and portioning of the establishment. The items must be purchased to the known standards of the establishment. Murage Macharia
  13. 13. OBJECTIVES OF STANDARD YIELD To establish the standard for the quantity and number of portions obtainable from a specified food item. 2. To establish a standard for comparison with operating result and thereby measure the efficiency of the production department. 3. To establish an objective method of further evaluating standard purchasing specifications. 1. Murage Macharia
  14. 14. Cont…. 4. To establish a standard cost factor for the item of food. 5. To assist in menu costing and pricing. 6. To assist in converting forecast requirement into raw material requirement. Murage Macharia
  15. 15. OBJECTIVES OF STANDARD RECIPE 1. To pre-determine the quantities and the quality of the ingredients to be used stating the standard purchase specification. 2. To pre-determine the yield obtainable from a recipe if a standard yield has not been prepared. 3. To pre-determine the food cost per portion. 4. To pre-determine the nutritional value of a particular dish. 5. To facilitate menu planning. Murage Macharia
  16. 16. Cont…. 6. To restrict the dominance of a dish by colours ingredients and flavors. 7. To facilitate food preparation by using standard product for a particular dish and process them by a standard method. This ensures a standard quality of the dish for customers at all time. Murage Macharia
  17. 17. Yield test Raw yield Initial raw yield Weight 14 Ratio % 100 Less bones, fat & trimmings 2.8 20 Celebal raw weight 11.2 80 Breakdown total 14 100 Murage Macharia
  18. 18. Cont….. portion in the kitchen £ Cooked meat cost Cost of labour for preparation Cost of overheads Net profit Selling price Gross profit Murage Macharia 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.2 1.2 % of selling price 40 30 20 10 100
  19. 19. Wholesale cuts 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Price ratio between different cuts, beef joint quarter or side. lamb joint or carcass mutton joint or carcass pork joint quarter, carcass or side veal joint quarter carcass or side. Murage Macharia
  20. 20. Cont…. Example A wholesale cut carcass of lamb weighing 15kg (approx. 32t) is purchased at 85t per kg. Total wholesale cost for 15kg at 85t per kg = 15x85= 1275 Bone and cooking loss The trimmings boning and cooking loss of meat is always calculated as a % of the raw meat purchased. Murage Macharia
  21. 21. Treatment of meat The joint of meat is weighed before cooking. The joint of meat is weighed after cooking. The cooking loss as a % is calculated e.g. Joint before cooking 8.0 kg Joining after cooking 6.5 kg Calculate the cooking loss as a percentage of raw meat 8.0kg – 6.5kg = 1.5kg % = 1.5/8.0x100 = 18.75kg Murage Macharia
  22. 22. Cont…. After carving the bones and the scraps the weight of trimming and bone loss is established e.g. Raw meat weight 8kg Weight of bones and scraps 2kg Calculate the weight of bones and scraps as a percentage of raw meat 2/8x100 = 25 Murage Macharia
  23. 23. Cont…. Calculate the weight of usable cooked meat 2.0kg (bones & scraps) + 1.5kg (cooking loss) = 3.5kg 8.0kg – 3.5kg = 4.5kg % = 4.5/8.0x100 = 56.25kg Murage Macharia
  24. 24. Cont…. If the standard portion of food to be served is 150g calculate the number of portion that the cover will produce. Change kg into g 1kg = 1000g 4.5kg = ? 1000/1x4.5 = 4500g 4500/150 = 30 portions Murage Macharia
  25. 25. Cont…. Cooking yield Weight Celebal raw weight 11 Shrinkage 2 Ratio 6 81.25 8 17.86 Celebal cooked meat 8 14 63.39 Skim and fat 2 15.18 2 Murage Macharia
  26. 26. Cont…. NB: Raw and cooked portion cost factor includes name of the dish portion size number of portions, cost per portion * 1b = 16 1.Ratio of servable weight to the original weight is equal to servable weight over the original weight. 2.Cost per servable pounds is equal to as purchased price per pound over % original weight. 3.Cost factor is equal to cost per pound servable weight over as purchased price. 4.portion cost is equal to cost per servable pounds divided by number of portions. Murage Macharia
  27. 27. MEAT COSTING After comparing costs the caterer will decide which is the most suitable and economical method of purchasing meat for his own particular establishment. Portion control meat Pre-portion steaks, chops, steakletts, hamburgers are normally purchased at a higher price per kg which is a reflection of the lab our involved in cutting and portioning the meat to size. This can be off-set by a decrease in lab our or overhead cost. E.g. 225g filled steak. Murage Macharia
  28. 28. Cont.… Cooked Meat To calculate the price per kg and per portion of the served meat, the following formula’s can be used. Formular 1 Served meat price per kg = Weight of raw meat x raw meat price per kg divided by weight of usable cooked meat. Murage Macharia
  29. 29. Cont…. Formular 2 Served meat price per kg = raw meat price per kg x 100% divided by usable cooked meat % of raw meat. Formular 3 Served meat price per portion = weight of raw meat x raw meat price per kg divided by number of portions of cooked meat served. Murage Macharia

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