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# Decision rules

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### Decision rules

1. 1. InterpretingProgress Monitoring DataFor Informed Decision Making
2. 2. Why Is This Important?According to the research… Student achievement increases only when teachers systematically respond to data on student performance. When teachers set ambitious goals for their students, student growth is positively impacted. When teachers monitor student performance and change instructional variables for students who are not making progress, students achieve at a higher rate.
3. 3. Possible Data Analyses Analysis of Level (average performance) ◦ Insufficient, especially when there is a substantial change or unanticipated trend Analysis of Trend (pattern of change over time) ◦ Visual analysis of student progress in relationship to goal line (useful when change is obvious) ◦ Calculate slope or rate of improvement (ROI) and compare to norms for improvement (better decision making with sufficient data) Analysis of Trend and Level (dual discrepancy) ◦ Combination of above with predetermined criteria ◦ Provides more comprehensive analysis
4. 4. Decision Rules Across Tiers • Trend and level of performance (dual discrepancy) • Trend, using visual analysis (4-point data rule) and ROI comparison • Level of performance in comparison to grade level benchmarks • Summary of effectiveness for aggregate data
5. 5. Analysis of Trend Visual Analysis of Student Growth in Relationship to Goal Line Calculated Rate of Improvement (ROI) Compared to Established Norms
6. 6. Analysis of Trend: VisualAnalysis 4-Point Data Rule: If at least 3 weeks of instruction have occurred and the student has at least 6 data points, examine the 4 most recent consecutive data points: ◦ If the 4 data points are all above the goal line, or if the trend line is above the goal line, keep the current intervention and increase the goal. ◦ If the 4 data points are all below the goal line, or if the trend line is below the goal line, keep the current goal and modify the intervention. ◦ If the 4 data points are neither all above or below the goal line, maintain the current goal and intervention and continue collecting/reviewing data.
7. 7. Analysis of Trend: ROIInvolves calculating slope and comparing to an expected rate of change or improvement (ROI) Calculate slope ◦ (Last score)–(first score)/# of weeks between scores Compare to expected rates ◦ Normative ROIs (national, district, local) ◦ Published weekly improvement rates (see Fuchs) Calculate a ratio of deficiency ◦ Expected ROI/obtained ROI ◦ Ratio of deficiency <1.0 indicates progress that meets or exceeds expectation ◦ Ratio of deficiency >2.0 is considered “of concern”
8. 8. Weekly Improvement Rates Grade Level of Reasonable Ambitious Reading Passage Growth Rate Growth Rate 1 2.0 3.0 2 1.5 2.0 3 1.0 1.5 4 0.85 1.1 5 0.50 0.85 6 0.30 0.65 Fuchs et al., 2003
9. 9. In Practice… Monitor student progress ◦ For all students, analysis of level ◦ Where needed, analysis of trend  Visual analysis  ROI and rate of deficiency ◦ Where needed, adjust implementation variables, including fidelity ◦ Ongoing collaboration/communication with teachers ◦ Eye on the goal