Richard Verifying Election Results (Ndi)


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  • Elections provide an important (but not only) mechanism by which citizens can hold their representatives accountable For elections to provide accountability the results must reflect aggregate citizen preferences If official results do not reflect the “will of the people” then elections cannot serve as a meaningful mechanism by which the citizens hold their representatives accountable.
  • Richard Verifying Election Results (Ndi)

    1. 1. Verifying Election Results : Employing Statistics, Databases and Mobile Phones to Enhance Monitoring Richard L. Klein Senior Advisor, Elections
    2. 2. The Problem <ul><li>Elections are an accountability mechanism </li></ul><ul><li>Elections need to reflect aggregate citizen preferences to be effective </li></ul><ul><li>However, citizens may have little confidence that official results reflect their collective preferences </li></ul><ul><li>Notably, results may be changed after they leave polling stations </li></ul>
    3. 3. The Response <ul><li>Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) </li></ul><ul><li>Citizens independently collect official results from individual polling stations </li></ul><ul><li>Transmit figures to a central location </li></ul><ul><li>Add numbers together </li></ul><ul><li>Analyzed the data </li></ul><ul><li>Share findings </li></ul>
    4. 4. Need for Speed <ul><li>Statistics </li></ul><ul><li>Databases </li></ul><ul><li>SMS (Texting) </li></ul>PVTs needs be completed quickly - before official results are announced Electoral authorities will always have more resources than citizen initiatives Citizens, however, can still be faster by employing:
    5. 5. Statistics <ul><li>Reduces overall burden on citizen groups </li></ul><ul><li>Greater attention to difficult to reach polling station </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on Quality over Quantity </li></ul>Use statistics to deploy accredited, well-trained observers to a representative random sample of polling stations
    6. 6. Databases <ul><li>Ensures monitors are deployed to all sampled polling stations </li></ul><ul><li>Enhances data security </li></ul><ul><li>Facilitates collection of data and data quality control </li></ul><ul><li>Speeds and simplifies data analysis </li></ul>Employ databases to manage information about monitors as well as observation data
    7. 7. SMS (Texting) <ul><li>Speeds and simplifies movement of information </li></ul><ul><li>Allows greater effort to be made collecting data from remote polling stations </li></ul><ul><li>Permits two-way communication increasing response rates and improving data quality </li></ul>Develop SMS protocols to enable monitors to transmit observation data by text message
    8. 8. PVT Requirements <ul><li>Comprehensive monitoring of the entire electoral process </li></ul><ul><li>Continuous monitoring at sampled polling stations from opening until the end of counting </li></ul><ul><li>Coherent top-down network of citizens </li></ul><ul><li>Training of citizens on monitoring and reporting </li></ul>
    9. 9. PVT Benefits <ul><li>More information available more quickly </li></ul><ul><li>Systematic information on positive and negative aspects of election </li></ul><ul><li>Ability to verify official results or suggest “true” result of an election </li></ul><ul><li>Increased voice citizen on conduct of elections </li></ul>
    10. 10. Ghana 2008/09 <ul><li>CODEO/CDD-Ghana </li></ul><ul><li>National Network with experience observing four national elections </li></ul><ul><li>PVT for presidential election </li></ul><ul><li>Sample size of 1,070 polling stations </li></ul><ul><li>Unified database of monitor information and observer data </li></ul><ul><li>Moved 90% observer data via SMS </li></ul>
    11. 11. Sample <ul><li>Stratified geographically to ensure representativeness </li></ul>
    12. 12. Tracking Monitors and Reports
    13. 13. Analyzing Data
    14. 14. Drilling Down
    15. 15. Verifying Results
    16. 16. SMS Codes
    17. 17. Outgoing SMS Messages
    18. 18. Response Rate
    19. 19. CODEO Statement
    20. 20. ZESN Statement – 31 March 08 Official results were finally announced on 02 May 08 (32 days after ZESN and 34 days after the election). Official, Mukoni received 8.3%, Mugabe 43.2%, Towangana 0.6% and Tsvangirai 49.7%.