Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Peter Novotny Ignite Talk Ned Feb 26

956 views

Published on

Published in: News & Politics, Education
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Peter Novotny Ignite Talk Ned Feb 26

  1. 1. THE BACKLASH AGAINST ELECTION MONITORS <br />Mr. Peter Novotny<br />Reagan Fascell Democracy Fellow<br />International Forum for Democratic Studies<br />National Endowment for Democracy<br />February 26, 2010<br />The views expressed in this presentation represent the opinions and analysis of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Endowment for Democracy or its staff.<br />
  2. 2. Key Actors in Election Observation<br />(Inter)-national observers<br />(Non)- partisan observers <br />Other observers (talking heads, rubber –stamp,, electoral tourists, book readers, fighters)<br />3 generations of observers (1st symbolic presence, 2nd election day boom, 3rd comprehensive long-term methodology)<br />2<br />
  3. 3. Who is who ? International or national ? Partisan <br />
  4. 4. International and Domestic Observers: A Comparison<br />International Missions<br />Domestic NGO Observers<br />Better access to stakeholders<br />Media attention<br />Missions are limited in time and number of observers<br />STOs work as mobile teams<br />May mediate conflicts<br />International expertise and international attention<br />Subject to Invitation and Accreditation Procedure<br />Ability to deploy high number of stationary observers at polling sites<br />May conduct PVT <br />Voter education, voters’ rights protection hotlines<br />Observe and advocate for reform on a long-term basis <br />Easier target for obstruction and intimidation<br />4<br />
  5. 5. Civic Education in Croatia<br />5<br />
  6. 6. Goals of Election Monitoring <br />To objectively assess election process<br />To safeguard its integrity by deterring fraud<br />To instill public confidence in election process<br />To improve the quality of the election process<br />Strengthen democracy at national & local levels<br />Engage citizens in voter right protection<br />6<br />
  7. 7. Methodology of Observation<br />Before, during and after election day<br />Long-term assessment (evidence–based)<br />International standards, regional instruments<br />Statistically based approach <br />Experts: legal, political, media, minorities, campaign finance, statistician<br />Training of observers (active observers)<br />Reporting forms (checklists)<br />Statistical analysis, IT enhanced reporting <br />Statements, conclusions, recommendations<br />7<br />
  8. 8. Election Rigging Today:<br />Before : Denial of opposition’s registration, control of media, abuse of state resources, voter coercion and intimidation, violence, changing rules – constitution, electoral system, threshold, boundaries delimitation<br />During: Ballot box stuffing, multiple voting, vote buying, intimidation, disenfranchisement, vote count fraud, tabulation and aggregation fraud<br />After: Announcing rigged results, not allowing duly elected to take office<br />8<br />
  9. 9. BEFORE - Gerrymandering cartoon (1812)<br />9<br />
  10. 10. 10<br />
  11. 11. 11<br /> AFTER: Counting Ballots for 2 days<br />
  12. 12. Color Revolutions and Backlash<br />Color Revolution Syndrome (Georgia, Ukraine)<br />Blame on Western and NGO observers<br />OSCE accused of “double standards” (West & East)<br />Limitations of intl. observers (Russia 2007-08)<br />Intervention against intl. observers (Moldova 09)<br />Imprisonment of domestic observers (Belarus 06)<br />Denial of accreditation, cancelling NGO registration, intimidation of domestic monitors<br />CIS observers<br />12<br />
  13. 13. DURING : Observers trying to observe early voting (KG)<br />13<br />
  14. 14. fff<br />DURING : Voters attempting to enter a polling site. <br />14<br />
  15. 15. 15<br />AFTER: Invalidating Unused Ballots<br />
  16. 16. Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) as Tool Against Count-Rigging <br />Statistical verification method conducted by Domestic Observer Groups<br />Representative random sample of polling sites<br />To deter or detect and denounce tabulation fraud<br />Reliable quick projection of results <br />Qualitative and quantitative assessment<br />Proven to be reliable powerful tool for domestic observer groups worldwide<br />16<br />
  17. 17. 17<br />
  18. 18. PVT (Quick Count) vs. Exit Polls <br />PVT<br />Exit Polls<br />PVT results are based on sample of results collected from polling stations <br />Quick projection of results within margin of error<br />PVT data include qualitative assessments<br />Exit Polls are based on voluntary answers of voters<br />Voters may hide their real preference <br />Voters may refuse to answer<br />Exit polls are not reliable in post-conflict countries<br />18<br />
  19. 19. CeSID PVT center in Serbia<br />19<br />
  20. 20. Presentation of PVT in Serbia (CeSID)<br />20<br />
  21. 21. NDI website with e-mapping showing fraud map and data<br />21<br />
  22. 22. Conclusions<br />Role of domestic observers increased significantly<br />International election monitoring remains important in transitional and post-conflict societies <br />Effective synergy - local and international observers <br />Innovative methods used to counter election fraud <br />Public and media need better understanding of the role, principles, and methods of credible observation <br />22<br />

×