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Peter Novotny Ignite Talk Ned Feb 26


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Peter Novotny Ignite Talk Ned Feb 26

  1. 1. THE BACKLASH AGAINST ELECTION MONITORS <br />Mr. Peter Novotny<br />Reagan Fascell Democracy Fellow<br />International Forum for Democratic Studies<br />National Endowment for Democracy<br />February 26, 2010<br />The views expressed in this presentation represent the opinions and analysis of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Endowment for Democracy or its staff.<br />
  2. 2. Key Actors in Election Observation<br />(Inter)-national observers<br />(Non)- partisan observers <br />Other observers (talking heads, rubber –stamp,, electoral tourists, book readers, fighters)<br />3 generations of observers (1st symbolic presence, 2nd election day boom, 3rd comprehensive long-term methodology)<br />2<br />
  3. 3. Who is who ? International or national ? Partisan <br />
  4. 4. International and Domestic Observers: A Comparison<br />International Missions<br />Domestic NGO Observers<br />Better access to stakeholders<br />Media attention<br />Missions are limited in time and number of observers<br />STOs work as mobile teams<br />May mediate conflicts<br />International expertise and international attention<br />Subject to Invitation and Accreditation Procedure<br />Ability to deploy high number of stationary observers at polling sites<br />May conduct PVT <br />Voter education, voters’ rights protection hotlines<br />Observe and advocate for reform on a long-term basis <br />Easier target for obstruction and intimidation<br />4<br />
  5. 5. Civic Education in Croatia<br />5<br />
  6. 6. Goals of Election Monitoring <br />To objectively assess election process<br />To safeguard its integrity by deterring fraud<br />To instill public confidence in election process<br />To improve the quality of the election process<br />Strengthen democracy at national & local levels<br />Engage citizens in voter right protection<br />6<br />
  7. 7. Methodology of Observation<br />Before, during and after election day<br />Long-term assessment (evidence–based)<br />International standards, regional instruments<br />Statistically based approach <br />Experts: legal, political, media, minorities, campaign finance, statistician<br />Training of observers (active observers)<br />Reporting forms (checklists)<br />Statistical analysis, IT enhanced reporting <br />Statements, conclusions, recommendations<br />7<br />
  8. 8. Election Rigging Today:<br />Before : Denial of opposition’s registration, control of media, abuse of state resources, voter coercion and intimidation, violence, changing rules – constitution, electoral system, threshold, boundaries delimitation<br />During: Ballot box stuffing, multiple voting, vote buying, intimidation, disenfranchisement, vote count fraud, tabulation and aggregation fraud<br />After: Announcing rigged results, not allowing duly elected to take office<br />8<br />
  9. 9. BEFORE - Gerrymandering cartoon (1812)<br />9<br />
  10. 10. 10<br />
  11. 11. 11<br /> AFTER: Counting Ballots for 2 days<br />
  12. 12. Color Revolutions and Backlash<br />Color Revolution Syndrome (Georgia, Ukraine)<br />Blame on Western and NGO observers<br />OSCE accused of “double standards” (West & East)<br />Limitations of intl. observers (Russia 2007-08)<br />Intervention against intl. observers (Moldova 09)<br />Imprisonment of domestic observers (Belarus 06)<br />Denial of accreditation, cancelling NGO registration, intimidation of domestic monitors<br />CIS observers<br />12<br />
  13. 13. DURING : Observers trying to observe early voting (KG)<br />13<br />
  14. 14. fff<br />DURING : Voters attempting to enter a polling site. <br />14<br />
  15. 15. 15<br />AFTER: Invalidating Unused Ballots<br />
  16. 16. Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) as Tool Against Count-Rigging <br />Statistical verification method conducted by Domestic Observer Groups<br />Representative random sample of polling sites<br />To deter or detect and denounce tabulation fraud<br />Reliable quick projection of results <br />Qualitative and quantitative assessment<br />Proven to be reliable powerful tool for domestic observer groups worldwide<br />16<br />
  17. 17. 17<br />
  18. 18. PVT (Quick Count) vs. Exit Polls <br />PVT<br />Exit Polls<br />PVT results are based on sample of results collected from polling stations <br />Quick projection of results within margin of error<br />PVT data include qualitative assessments<br />Exit Polls are based on voluntary answers of voters<br />Voters may hide their real preference <br />Voters may refuse to answer<br />Exit polls are not reliable in post-conflict countries<br />18<br />
  19. 19. CeSID PVT center in Serbia<br />19<br />
  20. 20. Presentation of PVT in Serbia (CeSID)<br />20<br />
  21. 21. NDI website with e-mapping showing fraud map and data<br />21<br />
  22. 22. Conclusions<br />Role of domestic observers increased significantly<br />International election monitoring remains important in transitional and post-conflict societies <br />Effective synergy - local and international observers <br />Innovative methods used to counter election fraud <br />Public and media need better understanding of the role, principles, and methods of credible observation <br />22<br />