Social Coverage Maps
ISCRAM, 2013-05-15
Magnus Jändel, Sinna Lindquist and Linus Luotsinen
Swedish Defence Research Agency
San Francisco 3 July 2011
How can crisis managers handle secondary societal effects of disruptions?
Problem and Requirements
• Problem
• Emergent societal effects of disruptions are difficult to grasp and
analyse
• Decisio...
Social Coverage Map (SCM)
• Analogous to technical coverage maps (radio, jamming)
• Summarizes emergent social effects of ...
SCM example
SCM Definition
• The Perturbation Coverage Map (PCM) visualizes the
intensity distribution of the perturbation P(x,y,t).
•...
Expected/planned disturbance
Social factors of interest
Spatial resolution of interest
How to generate SCMs
Simulation wit...
Scenario
• Urban environment at peace
• Blue force tasked with evacuating VIPs in road convoy
• Red force attempts to stop...
POPSIM: Introduction
• A prototype targeting the
modeling and simulation of
human populations in urban
environments.
• Age...
POPSIM: Infrastructure and Environment
• Buildings and roads are fed into the simulator using
GIS/Shape files.
POPSIM: Cell Phone Coverage
• Cell phone coverage is calculated from the location and
effect of GSM base-stations and jamm...
POPSIM: Population Synthesizer
• The population synthesizer is used
to generate synthetic data
representing the initial st...
Scenario-specific behaviour
• Adults phones family members intermittently
• In case of jamming, call attempts are repeated...
Planned disturbance: Jamming coverage map
Social factors of interest: movement and anxiety
Spatial resolution
Scenario SCM...
Scenario simulation in POPSIM
SCM: At time T + 1 hour,
Population physical movement caused by jamming
SCM: Time T + 2 hours,
Population physical movement caused by jamming
SCM: Time T + 1 hour,
Anxiety caused by the disturbance
SCM: Time T + 2 hours,
Anxiety caused by the disturbance
Discussion
• Social Coverage Maps (SCM) may help crisis managers to
intuitively understand societal ramifications
• Leader...
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Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare

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Presentation of Magnus Jändel, Sinna Lindquist and Linus Luotsinen on the topic "Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare" at ISCRAM2013

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Emergent Social Coverage Maps in Urban Electronic Warfare

  1. 1. Social Coverage Maps ISCRAM, 2013-05-15 Magnus Jändel, Sinna Lindquist and Linus Luotsinen Swedish Defence Research Agency
  2. 2. San Francisco 3 July 2011 How can crisis managers handle secondary societal effects of disruptions?
  3. 3. Problem and Requirements • Problem • Emergent societal effects of disruptions are difficult to grasp and analyse • Decision makers use pattern recognition and intuition and have little time for reasoning • Decision makers may lack experience of complex societal ramifications of disruptions • Requirements on presentation of societal effects • Simple visualization • Integrated with map-based information • Easy to understand with little training
  4. 4. Social Coverage Map (SCM) • Analogous to technical coverage maps (radio, jamming) • Summarizes emergent social effects of disruptions • Can be used for a wide range of map-related disruptions e.g. • Communication outages • Teargas • Pollution • Floodings • Visualizes a wide range of emergent effects e.g. • Physical population movement • Opinions • Emotions • Human relations
  5. 5. SCM example
  6. 6. SCM Definition • The Perturbation Coverage Map (PCM) visualizes the intensity distribution of the perturbation P(x,y,t). • The Social Response Variable Q(x,y,t) measures a relevant social response to the perturbation. • Q(x,y,t1) depends in general on the history of P(x,y,t) for all times t<t1 . • The Social Coverage Map (SCM) visualizes the intensity distribution of the social response variable Q(x,y,t). • RSCM is the spatial resolution of the SCM.
  7. 7. Expected/planned disturbance Social factors of interest Spatial resolution of interest How to generate SCMs Simulation with perturbation Reference simulation Comparison
  8. 8. Scenario • Urban environment at peace • Blue force tasked with evacuating VIPs in road convoy • Red force attempts to stop the convoy with flash mobs • Mobile phones essential for organizing protests • Blue force have jamming UAVs • Jamming causes anxiety • Worried people take to the roads • Secondary effects of jamming may cause traffic congestion • Congested roads makes it easier for flash mobs to catch up • What is the optimal jamming policy?
  9. 9. POPSIM: Introduction • A prototype targeting the modeling and simulation of human populations in urban environments. • Agent-based simulation. • Implemented in Java using open source libraries only. … and many more!JUNG
  10. 10. POPSIM: Infrastructure and Environment • Buildings and roads are fed into the simulator using GIS/Shape files.
  11. 11. POPSIM: Cell Phone Coverage • Cell phone coverage is calculated from the location and effect of GSM base-stations and jamming sources
  12. 12. POPSIM: Population Synthesizer • The population synthesizer is used to generate synthetic data representing the initial state of the population. • Synthesizer modules: • Demography • Geography • Relationship • Can be used online as well as offline (read/write .pop files). GIS Demography Statistics Demography Synthesizer Synthetic Population Synthetic Population Geography Synthesizer Synthetic Population Sub- SynthesizerSub-Synthesizer Input Population Size PopulationSynthesizerPipeline
  13. 13. Scenario-specific behaviour • Adults phones family members intermittently • In case of jamming, call attempts are repeated after five minutes • The caller becomes worried after four failed calls • Worried people will moves towards home • Worried people returns to the normal state and default behaviour if a phone call succeed or family members are found.
  14. 14. Planned disturbance: Jamming coverage map Social factors of interest: movement and anxiety Spatial resolution Scenario SCMs Simulation with jamming Reference simulation Comparison
  15. 15. Scenario simulation in POPSIM
  16. 16. SCM: At time T + 1 hour, Population physical movement caused by jamming
  17. 17. SCM: Time T + 2 hours, Population physical movement caused by jamming
  18. 18. SCM: Time T + 1 hour, Anxiety caused by the disturbance
  19. 19. SCM: Time T + 2 hours, Anxiety caused by the disturbance
  20. 20. Discussion • Social Coverage Maps (SCM) may help crisis managers to intuitively understand societal ramifications • Leaders must be trained to understand the relevance of SCMs e.g. • SCMs based on low-accuracy simulations serve as reminders of unpredictable emergent societal effects • SCMs based on high-accuracy simulations can be used for operational planning • Further research • End-user trust • Effects on decision-making • Effects on training • Effects on audits

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