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... around 2000 I gave lectures of alternative views to management & leadership - and introduced views of chaos theory ...

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  1. 1. C haos theory & fuzzy logic - some ideas about management of uncertainty, contradictions and ambiguity beYoND ThE oRdeR
  2. 4. How do You perceive chaos and order ??? <ul><li>Negative / positive </li></ul><ul><li>Safe / dangerous </li></ul><ul><li>Desirable / undesirable </li></ul><ul><li>Constructive / destructive </li></ul><ul><li>Good / evil </li></ul><ul><li>Bi-polar dichotomy … or something DIFFERENT ??? </li></ul>Exciting Creative Strange Innovative Beautiful Ugly Diverse Booooooooooooooring W e I r d
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  4. 7. Source: chaosdynamics/images/strange_attractor.gif
  5. 8. Chaos and Economics - exponentially increasing and diminishing returns Increasing Returns and High-Tech - chain reaction of growth and decline … dot.bomb Weak signal of change - small things might matter Turbulent environments Destructive innovations
  6. 9. <ul><li>Dynamic non-linear systems </li></ul><ul><li>complexity </li></ul><ul><li>increasing disorder </li></ul><ul><li>Self-organizing structures </li></ul><ul><li>fractal </li></ul><ul><li>neural networks </li></ul>
  7. 10. CHAOTIC WASHING MACHINES ??? <ul><li>This is just what Goldstar Co. created back in 1993. It was one of the world's first consumer products to exploit &quot;chaos theory&quot;. This washing machine is supposed to produce cleaner and less tangled clothes. The key to the chaotic motion is a small pulsator (which stirs the water) that rises and falls randomly as the main pulsator rotates. When released to the world market, it was expected to push Goldstar's share of the annual 1.5-million-unit washing machine market to 40% in 1993, compared to 39% for Samsung and 21% for Daewoo (Goldstar's major competitors). However, marketing is fierce in South Korea and Daewoo argues that Goldstar &quot;was not the first&quot; to commercialize chaos theory. Daewoo also built a &quot;bubble machine&quot; in 1990 which also used chaos theory that was the result of &quot;fuzzy logic circuits.&quot; Fuzzy circuits make choices between zero and one, and between true and false. These factors control the amount of bubbles, the turbulence of the machine, and even the wobble of the machine. It is clear that chaos theory has not gone unnoticed in today's consumer world market. </li></ul>
  8. 11. Fuzzy logic <ul><li>Dr. Bart Kosko, author of Fuzzy Thinking says most science math models are linear models, though no one has found a truly linear process in nature. Nonlinear math models are more accurate, & neural & fuzzy systems are tools that let us model nonlinear systems without having to guess at their exact mathematical form. Examples of applications are given: auto & air traffic control, computers, etc. </li></ul>
  9. 12. <ul><ul><ul><ul><li>An Introduction </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>to Mathematical Chaos Theory and Fractal Geometry </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  10. 13. ...the Changing Business World <ul><li>The business environment has changed fundamentally in the decades leading to the 21st century. </li></ul><ul><li>The world has been linked into a single global market ruled by instantaneous transfer of information by electronic signals. </li></ul><ul><li>Small changes can quickly multiply in the global electronic market and lead to serious perturbations. </li></ul><ul><li>Modern high-tech firms are radically different from traditional businesses. Technological innovations might proliferate rapidly, making nonsense of conventional ideas of management. </li></ul><ul><li>Value is generated in cyberspace, while jobs, pensions and welfare dissolve and become weightless. </li></ul><ul><li>Turbulence seems to be the order of the day… more and more of economy does not consist of goods at all - “the weightless, knowledge-based economy” is moving from manufacturing to services… </li></ul><ul><li>Under these circumstances, chaos and complexity, provide some ideas enhancing understanding of the changing business world ... </li></ul>Chaos
  11. 14. The Art of Chaos
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  13. 16. Chaos introduced and applied <ul><li>Chaos without math … with text, animations and music </li></ul><ul><li>Messy Futures and Global Brains </li></ul><ul><li>Introduction to chaos and order in a US college for the first year students </li></ul><ul><li>CalTech applied chaos in medicine and computing </li></ul><ul><li>Particle System API - simulations, games… </li></ul>
  14. 18. Things to add ... <ul><li>Background of chaos theory </li></ul><ul><li>Benoit Mandelbrot </li></ul><ul><li>Edward Lorenz </li></ul><ul><li>Butterfly effect </li></ul><ul><li>Strange attractor </li></ul><ul><li>Fractal </li></ul><ul><li>Society as a fractal </li></ul>
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  16. 20. Mandelbrott
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  18. 22. CHECK THIS <ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>critics of evolution: </li></ul>