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One of the most challenging evaluation questions for residential lighting energy efficiency programs in the U.S. is the identification and correction for net-to-gross (NTG) effects such as free ridership and spillover. Over the last twenty years, considerable effort and financial resources have been directed toward accurately measuring these effects. Furthermore, the correction for these NTG effects has direct, and sometimes, drastic impact on program savings.
APT and Opinion Dynamics discuss a new framework for the estimation of free ridership in upstream lighting programs grounded in sound, economically rational decision making on the part of retail partners. This approach, built on functional retail behavior, provides a clearer more insightful look into the elements comprising the retail sales environment thus providing program implementers with a more predictable outcome of end results – up front.