Solar PV a major electricity source - An IRENA View

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Presentation by IRENA to the EU PVSEC parallel event "PV - A Major Electricity Source" on October 3rd.

Focus on cost reductions and challenges and opportunities that are emerging for PV.

http://www.photovoltaic-conference.com/parallel-events/pvamajorelectricitysource2013.html

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Solar PV a major electricity source - An IRENA View

  1. 1. IRENA’s Power Generation Costing Analysis: PV in Focus July 2013 Michael Taylor mtaylor@irena.org IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre
  2. 2. COSTING…. WHY? HOW? WITH WHOM? 2
  3. 3. Rationale and goals • Renewable energy can meet policy goals for secure, reliable and affordable energy and access. • Lack of objective and up-to-date data is a barrier • Decision making based on: outdated numbers, opinion • IRENA to strive to become THE source for cost data • Goals:  Assist government decision-making, allow more ambitious policies  Fill a significant information gap • Coverage:  Power generation (June 2012 and January 2013)  Road Transport (July 2013)  Stationary applications (2014) 3
  4. 4. Framework 4 Where to set the boundaries? How to get data? Are costs even available? Prices, or price indicators? Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)
  5. 5. RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION 2012 5
  6. 6. Key findings 6 • Renewables now THE economic solution off-grid and for mini-grids, increasingly competitive for grid supply • A shift in policy focus will need to come • Dramatic price reductions for Solar PV. Onshore wind competitive at best sites, CSP has great potential. Hydropower, geothermal and biomass more mature • Equipment cost declines and technology improvements LCOEs are falling • A convergence in LCOEs • Data collection poses challenges
  7. 7. LCOE ranges and averages 7
  8. 8. Levelised cost of electricity by country/region 8Note: assumes a 10% cost of capital
  9. 9. The LCOE of wind © IRENA 2013 9 Higher capacity factors from improved technology Wind turbine cost reductions
  10. 10. Hydropower • Mature technology, flexibility in design in many cases • Lowest cost electricity of any source in many cases • Importance will grow with penetration of variable RE 10
  11. 11. SOLAR PV: 11
  12. 12. Introduction • Solar PV is democratising not only electricity but also renewables • Huge potential economic, environmental and social dividends for developing countries in the sun belt • Solar PV module prices have fallen rapidly, but much more stable in 2013 • Grid parity for residential customers will become increasingly the norm in Europe, but… • Globally a very narrow market, deployment is not typically where the sun is….much work needs to be done 12
  13. 13. PV modules prices 13
  14. 14. Learning rates for PV modules 14 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, February, 2011 2013
  15. 15. Non-OECD installed costs for PV (utility-scale) 15
  16. 16. Solar PV installed costs 16
  17. 17. An emerging/persistent issue: Balance of system costs? 17 Cost reduction pass-through will be strongly tied to success in reducing BoS costs Source: Seel, Barbose and Wiser, 2012
  18. 18. So what does all this mean? 18 REMAP: doubling the share of renewables by 2030 • Power sector has the lowest costs • Solar PV is an important part of the solution …and is set to become a major source of electricity
  19. 19. PLANS FOR THE IRENA RENEWABLE COSTING ALLIANCE AND FUTURE WORK ON PV19
  20. 20. Rationale and Plans • Analysis to date has been based on low hanging fruit • Engage with business: The Alliance will work at a technical level on data and its availability • Alliance members share, confidentially, their data on real world project costs • Entirely voluntary, we work together for mutual benefit • Establishment period now, offical launch at Assembly • Goals:  more data, better data, a greater focus on analysis of data 20
  21. 21. Structure Member countries: Steering group for costing analysis focus One workshop a year Must nominate institution to deliver data Quarterly newsletter Alliance Members: Provide data, confidentially One workshop a year Ability to query the database in detail Quarterly newsletter Observers: Quarterly newsletter Mailing list for new publications/analysis 21
  22. 22. Predicting solar flares… or at least IRENA’s plans for PV • PV Parity Indicators • Economic opportunities mapping with the IRENA Global Atlas • In-depth analysis of emerging market costs and market development 22
  23. 23. Renewables are increasingly competitive, but more needs to be done to fulfill their potential… 23 IRENA is part of the solution

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