Campaign Management  US-professionalism, strategy,     organisation, message    development, negative         campaigning
„Winners induce by more than rhetorical  attraction. Typically they win because they have set up the situation in such a  ...
US-campaigns are...       •  Candidate oriented       •  Professionally managed          (spin docs)       •  A money game...
Transferability•    Define your candidacy/fencing off opponent•    Methods of message development•    Stay on message•    ...
Strategy and Spin
„Allmen can see these tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved.“  ...
„Der   Krieg ist eine bloße Fortsetzung der          Politik mit anderen Mitteln.“                        Carl von Clausew...
Strategic Principles•  For most, the pursuit of power is central (also journalists)•  Spend time on defining your exact ob...
Game theory   ◘ A scientific approach to reduce uncertainty   ◘ helps you to map the landscape   e.g. prisoner’s dilemma; ...
Game Theory•  For most, the pursuit of power is central (also journalists)•  Spend time on defining your exact objective –...
Begin with the end in mind,    then move backwards.Strategy  –  Central part of each campaignDifference Strategy-taktics  ...
What‘s a spin doctor?•  The spin doctor manages the campaign•  He decides on strategy and tactics•  Prepares the candidate...
Campaign organization
What‘s a political campaign?A series of communication-events with       the purpose to establish an  emotional link betwee...
The War Room ConceptUS HQ – 600 people each•  Opposition Research•  Free Media and Paid Media•  Strategy•  Polling•  Inter...
Targeting         Analyzing the audience• Three clusters: supporters, opponents,  undecideds• Forget about the opponents• ...
Grassroots/Basismobilisierung• Decisive element in campaigns lately  (Bush vs Kerry, Austria, Vienna, ORF)• „Hot“ medium: ...
Grassroots II•  Winning ground war more and more important•  Weaker turnouts (see Austria, Vienna, US)•  Message: Hot medi...
Obama• 5 million active supporters• 3 million small donors• Precinct-Captains like Bush  •  Training in „Obama“-camps (up ...
Emotions in politics
„Heute ist der stolzeste Satz, den jemand in   der freien Welt sagen kann: "Ich bin ein  Berliner!" Wenn es in der Welt Me...
„Heuer gibt es eine "Schöne Bescherung"   für alle, die ihren verdienten Ruhestand    genießen, oder sich darauf freuen: D...
How TV works• „Stories“ crucial• Formula: 70 – 23 – 7• 4 basic stories  –  AGON: Competition (sports etc.)  –  ALEA: Fate ...
Current stories• Obama 08 = Cinderella  • No story as Commander in Chief• Bush = John Wayne• Tea Party = Story of Independ...
Message Development
The message is crucial• The central step in designing a campaign  plan: You‘re lost without a message!• Has to be in line ...
Designing a USP• Concentrate your own strengths against  the weak points of your opponent• Concentrate on a few, easily  r...
Framing/Wording•  Words frame a debate (Neue Mittelschule vs   Gesamtschule)•  Negations are not heard – they enforce the ...
Techniques I•  Message Box  –  First step to get an overview and distill key positions/     images/inoculation points•  Me...
Message BoxOverview concerning key positions, images, vulnerabilities                      Molterer              FaymannMo...
Bill Clinton 1992               ChangeRebuild                       Peopleeconomy                          first
Clinton/Obama                Change                ChangePeople first              Rebuild economyEmpowering people       ...
Werner Faymann 2008               StilwendeRasch in der               Der MenschKrise helfen                    zuerst
Techniques II• Message pyramid  –  Represents different levels of a discussion• Stay on message  –  Doesn‘t mean repeating...
Message Pyramid       concepts    numbers&figures     case studies
Negative Campaigning• „Comeback kid“ Clinton as model• „Dirty campaigning“ avoided• The Art of attack  –  Clear rules to f...
Top 10 of NC (I)1.  Attention: Pflege versus BAWAG2.  Contrast and Emotion: SW-pics; contrasting    ads (FP: Daham statt I...
Top 10 of NC (II)6.  Own strengths versus opponent‘s     vulnerabilities: Sozialkompetenz gegen Kälte7.  Timing: BAWAG in ...
Chances/DangersChancen   –  Media attention   –  Emotion (Mobilization)   –  Offense vs Defense   –  Opponent can‘t attack...
Campaign strategy IPositioning strategies   –  Personal virtues&flaws; ideological/partisan differences;      situations (...
Campaign strategy IITiming and intensity strategies   –  Tortoise: start slow – build all the way   –  Bookend: Open big/l...
Learnings• Campaigns DO matter• Messages count• You‘ve to have your spin docs in place• Relevant on all levels
„Winners induce by more than rhetorical  attraction. Typically they win because they have set up the situation in such a  ...
thomas.hofer@hppa.at
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Campaign Management

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Campaign Management

  1. 1. Campaign Management US-professionalism, strategy, organisation, message development, negative campaigning
  2. 2. „Winners induce by more than rhetorical attraction. Typically they win because they have set up the situation in such a way that other people will want to join them – or will feel forced by circumstances to join them – even without persuasion at all. And this is what heresthetics is all about: structuring the world so you can win.“ William H. Riker, The Art of Political Manipulation
  3. 3. US-campaigns are... •  Candidate oriented •  Professionally managed (spin docs) •  A money game •  TV- and since 08 internet- centered •  Negative Campaigning •  Micro-messages •  Constant campaigning
  4. 4. Transferability•  Define your candidacy/fencing off opponent•  Methods of message development•  Stay on message•  Message unity•  Agenda setting/issue management•  Persons and emotions•  Strategic steps: –  Positioning –  Message sequence –  Timing and intensity –  Persuasion and/or mobilization –  Opportunity
  5. 5. Strategy and Spin
  6. 6. „Allmen can see these tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved.“ Sun Tzu, The Art of War
  7. 7. „Der Krieg ist eine bloße Fortsetzung der Politik mit anderen Mitteln.“ Carl von Clausewitz, Vom Kriege
  8. 8. Strategic Principles•  For most, the pursuit of power is central (also journalists)•  Spend time on defining your exact objective – defining the strategy is a cerebral process•  Try to be unpredictable•  Military principle: OODA-loop (observe, orient, decide, act) – you have to be prepared to refine your tactics•  Oppo ‘s mindset in background (their opportunities)•  Strategy is there to reduce the uncertainty involved•  Observe dominant strategies
  9. 9. Game theory ◘ A scientific approach to reduce uncertainty ◘ helps you to map the landscape e.g. prisoner’s dilemma; Battle of the Bismarck Sea Person A confess deny confessPerson B deny
  10. 10. Game Theory•  For most, the pursuit of power is central (also journalists)•  Spend time on defining your exact objective – defining the strategy is a cerebral process•  Try to be unpredictable•  Military principle: OODA-loop (observe, orient, decide, act) – you have to be prepared to refine your tactics•  Oppo ‘s mindset in background (their opportunities)•  Strategy is there to reduce the uncertainty involved•  Observe dominant strategies
  11. 11. Begin with the end in mind, then move backwards.Strategy –  Central part of each campaignDifference Strategy-taktics –  D-Day –  Schüssel/Molterer –  Gusenbauer/Faymann –  Currently: Styria/Vienna
  12. 12. What‘s a spin doctor?•  The spin doctor manages the campaign•  He decides on strategy and tactics•  Prepares the candidate for debates and public appearances•  Tries to enforce the right „spin“ on messages•  Stays in contact with the media
  13. 13. Campaign organization
  14. 14. What‘s a political campaign?A series of communication-events with the purpose to establish an emotional link between candidate and voter in order to get the voter to make a certain decision and act accordingly.
  15. 15. The War Room ConceptUS HQ – 600 people each•  Opposition Research•  Free Media and Paid Media•  Strategy•  Polling•  Internal communication/organization•  Grassroots/mobilization•  Fundraising (each 600 Mio $ in 04)
  16. 16. Targeting Analyzing the audience• Three clusters: supporters, opponents, undecideds• Forget about the opponents• Depending on the situation: Focus on undecideds, only supporters or even the opponent‘s soft support
  17. 17. Grassroots/Basismobilisierung• Decisive element in campaigns lately (Bush vs Kerry, Austria, Vienna, ORF)• „Hot“ medium: personal contact• Has to be organized: volunteers• USA: Bush/Cheney – 63.000 precinct captains• Personal motivation is key (responsibility)
  18. 18. Grassroots II•  Winning ground war more and more important•  Weaker turnouts (see Austria, Vienna, US)•  Message: Hot media (ph, DM, door-to-door) faster than cold (TV, papers)•  Personal contacts always more credible•  Targeting operations are much easier•  Internet for mobilization of own forces (meetups etc.)•  More in public affairs sessions
  19. 19. Obama• 5 million active supporters• 3 million small donors• Precinct-Captains like Bush •  Training in „Obama“-camps (up to 7.000 per weekend)• Pyramid structure (internal circles to messengers)• GOTV-Operations: calls; E-Mails; door-to- door-canvassing
  20. 20. Emotions in politics
  21. 21. „Heute ist der stolzeste Satz, den jemand in der freien Welt sagen kann: "Ich bin ein Berliner!" Wenn es in der Welt Menschen geben sollte, die nicht wissen, worum es heute in der Auseinandersetzung zwischen der freien Welt und dem Kommunismus geht, dann können wir ihnen nur sagen, sie sollen nach Berlin kommen.“ John F. Kennedy vor dem Schöneburger Rathaus, 1963
  22. 22. „Heuer gibt es eine "Schöne Bescherung" für alle, die ihren verdienten Ruhestand genießen, oder sich darauf freuen: Die ÖVP wollte Pensionen kürzen und das Pensionsalter überfallsartig erhöhen! Das habe ich persönlich verhindert. Um trotzdem auf die Pensionen zugreifen zu können, wollte die ÖVP Neuwahlen. Ausgerechnet eine Woche vor Weihnachten!“ Franz Vranitzky, Pensionistenbrief, 7.12.1995
  23. 23. How TV works• „Stories“ crucial• Formula: 70 – 23 – 7• 4 basic stories –  AGON: Competition (sports etc.) –  ALEA: Fate –  ILINX: Conspiracy –  MIMIKRI: Show/travesty
  24. 24. Current stories• Obama 08 = Cinderella • No story as Commander in Chief• Bush = John Wayne• Tea Party = Story of Independence• Häupl = Lord of the Rings• Strache = Robin Hood• Marek/Vassilakou = ??
  25. 25. Message Development
  26. 26. The message is crucial• The central step in designing a campaign plan: You‘re lost without a message!• Has to be in line with the targeting profile• Don‘t forget about your party/candidate image (exc. Blair, Clinton, Schröder)• Don‘t forget about the likely messages of your opponents
  27. 27. Designing a USP• Concentrate your own strengths against the weak points of your opponent• Concentrate on a few, easily remembered points• Be distinguishable
  28. 28. Framing/Wording•  Words frame a debate (Neue Mittelschule vs Gesamtschule)•  Negations are not heard – they enforce the frame („keine sozial kalte Partei“)•  Reframing only way out (new definition of the frame)•  Estate tax vs Death tax•  War on Terror vs Invasion of Iraq
  29. 29. Techniques I•  Message Box –  First step to get an overview and distill key positions/ images/inoculation points•  Message Triangle (Botschaftendreieck) –  Method to reduce complexity in a campaign•  Result: the message in three to five lines
  30. 30. Message BoxOverview concerning key positions, images, vulnerabilities Molterer FaymannMoltererFaymann
  31. 31. Bill Clinton 1992 ChangeRebuild Peopleeconomy first
  32. 32. Clinton/Obama Change ChangePeople first Rebuild economyEmpowering people Rebuild economy
  33. 33. Werner Faymann 2008 StilwendeRasch in der Der MenschKrise helfen zuerst
  34. 34. Techniques II• Message pyramid –  Represents different levels of a discussion• Stay on message –  Doesn‘t mean repeating the same sentence• Unity• Test your message• Triangulation
  35. 35. Message Pyramid concepts numbers&figures case studies
  36. 36. Negative Campaigning• „Comeback kid“ Clinton as model• „Dirty campaigning“ avoided• The Art of attack –  Clear rules to follow
  37. 37. Top 10 of NC (I)1.  Attention: Pflege versus BAWAG2.  Contrast and Emotion: SW-pics; contrasting ads (FP: Daham statt Islam)3.  Logic/Relevance/Dokumentation: you‘ve to have „proof“4.  Credibility: Test your messages5.  Fear: PKW-Maut; Verkauf des Wassers versus Haschtrafiken
  38. 38. Top 10 of NC (II)6.  Own strengths versus opponent‘s vulnerabilities: Sozialkompetenz gegen Kälte7.  Timing: BAWAG in spring8.  Everyone is able to attack: Even incumbents9.  Humor: Always best10.  Outsource attacks: SP 2008; third parties are more credible
  39. 39. Chances/DangersChancen –  Media attention –  Emotion (Mobilization) –  Offense vs Defense –  Opponent can‘t attackRisks –  Backfiring –  Mobilization of opponents –  Producing non-voters
  40. 40. Campaign strategy IPositioning strategies –  Personal virtues&flaws; ideological/partisan differences; situations (change, continuity) –  Goals: enhance or blur differences –  Framing the choice; inoculate candidateMessage sequence strategies –  Ignore oppo (remain positive) –  Classic (positive; only respond neg; end pos) –  Aggressive (open +; - before oppo; respond; close as required) –  Frontal assault (open comparative/-; then +; close as required) –  Relentless attack (open/maintain -; later +/-; close as required)
  41. 41. Campaign strategy IITiming and intensity strategies –  Tortoise: start slow – build all the way –  Bookend: Open big/loud; then slow building; close big/loud –  Pearl Harbour: start quietly (oppo underestimates u; surprise attack; close big/loud –  Hold your fire: slow building; big/loud closingPersuasion and mobilization strategies –  Traditional: (reinforce) base; identify/win undecideds, turn out –  Base strategy: reinforce base and turn it out –  Marion Barry: reinforce base – enlarge it (by attacking others) – turn it out –  Opportunity strategies: set traps, technological advantage etc.
  42. 42. Learnings• Campaigns DO matter• Messages count• You‘ve to have your spin docs in place• Relevant on all levels
  43. 43. „Winners induce by more than rhetorical attraction. Typically they win because they have set up the situation in such a way that other people will want to join them – or will feel forced by circumstances to join them – even without persuasion at all. And this is what heresthetics is all about: structuring the world so you can win.“ William H. Riker, The Art of Political Manipulation
  44. 44. thomas.hofer@hppa.at

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