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Ted Leonsis - Revolution 2016 Predictions Deck

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Revolution Growth partner Ted Leonsis makes tech, venture capital and business predictions for 2016.

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Ted Leonsis - Revolution 2016 Predictions Deck

  1. 1. 2016Predictions 1 2016 TED LEONSISPARTNER, REVOLUTION GROWTH Predictions
  2. 2. 2016Predictions 2 In 2016 these 10 predictions will take hold, some good and others not so much. These predictions are driven by recent advances in technology, the economic climate, changes in consumer behaviors, and everything in between. 2 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS The Good: •E-gaming leagues become as valuable as national 
 sports leagues •Over-the-top (OTT) Content becomes the norm •Team Robotics joins the Olympics •An unexpected M&A transaction acquires a 100-year old company •Advancements in wearables for the elderly •The rise of the Super City The Bad: •Drone regulation debate intensifies •A cyberterrorism attacks will cost more than a natural disaster •The public’s fascination with driverless cars becomes skepticism and doubt •Existing Unicorns will go public with lower valuations
  3. 3. 2016Predictions 3 01 3 Drones ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  4. 4. 2016Predictions 4 Drones and air space management will come to a head. 4 01 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  5. 5. 2016Predictions 5 It won’t be long before a drone incident intensifies the conflict between consumer drone usage and commercial. 5 01 Drones and air space management will come to a head. 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  6. 6. 2016Predictions 66 167% Increase in consumer drone shipments in 2014 2013 2014 2015E 01 Number of drone incidents in 2015 969 # of Drone Shipments in the US Units expected to be sold during 2015 holidays 1 MM 2016Predictions It won’t be long before a drone incident intensifies the conflict between consumer drone usage and commercial. ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  7. 7. 2016Predictions 7 02 7 Cyber terrorism ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  8. 8. 2016Predictions 8 The cost of a cyberterrorism attack will be greater than that of a natural disaster. 8 02 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  9. 9. 2016Predictions 9 In 2016, the U.S. government and major corporations will face 
 an onslaught of attacks that will prompt a new industry to be created— the hacking economy? 9 02 The cost of a cyberterrorism attack will be greater than that of a natural disaster. 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS Types of Attacks • State-sanctioned • Criminal • Terror
  10. 10. 2016Predictions 1010 $575B Cost of cyber crime to the global economy, including $100B to the U.S. 2013 2014 2015 02 Estimated cost 
 of the 2014 cyber attack on Sony $35MM The cost of a cyberterrorism attack will be greater than that of a natural disaster. Total cost of cyber crime to the average US company $15.4MM 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  11. 11. 2016Predictions 11 03 11 Super Cities ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  12. 12. 2016Predictions 12 Super Cities will become more valuable and influential than most countries. 12 03 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  13. 13. 2016Predictions 13 A Super City is a metropolitan region with a population over ten million people. In our lifetime, the era of the nation state will be replaced by the rise of Super Cities. 13 03 Super Cities will become more valuable and influential than most countries. 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS Characteristics of a Super City: • 60% of inhabitants under 30 years old • Three airports • Five (or more) research institutions • Major broadband infrastructure
  14. 14. 2016Predictions 1414 2XNumber of cities with more than 10 million people is expected to double in the next 15 years 03 Square miles encompassing greater London 600 Super Cities will become more valuable and influential than most countries. Following the Great Recession, migration patterns shifted to cities, reversing the suburban exodus. 46% 54% 2015 Urban population 34% 66% 2050 Urban population 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS Was the first year that 50% of the world’s population lived in cities. 2008
  15. 15. 2016Predictions 15 04 15 Driverless Cars ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  16. 16. 2016Predictions 16 Society’s utopian view of driverless cars will crash into the practical realities. 16 04 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  17. 17. 2016Predictions 17 Almost every major
 car manufacturer and technology company is developing some type of driverless vehicle and has started testing them. 17 04 Society’s utopian view of driverless cars will crash into the practical realities. 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  18. 18. 2016Predictions 1818 471k Number of hackable vehicles on the road today via the vulnerable Uconnect system 04 Number of vehicles recalled by Chrysler after the 2014 Wired magazine story about hackers taking over a Jeep Cherokee 1.4MM0 2.5 5 7.5 10 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 10MM Estimated # of installed base of cars with self- driving features 2016Predictions Society’s utopian view of driverless cars will crash into the practical realities. ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  19. 19. 2016Predictions 19 05 19 Wearables ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  20. 20. 2016Predictions 20 Within the next five years we can expect advances in wearables will add 3-5 years to a person’s life expectancy. 20 05 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  21. 21. 2016Predictions 21 Quick advancements in wearables for the elderly are 
 needed as the world population is aging at an unprecedented rate – by 2050, 2 billion people will be over 60. And those individuals will have grown accustomed to technology 
 being a part of their daily lives. 21 05 Within the next five years we can expect advances in wearables will add 3-5 years to a person’s life expectancy. 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  22. 22. 2016Predictions 2222 80MM Number of baby boomers in the U.S. Apple considers 41% of their customers boomers. 05 Estimated market opportunity for 
 the “longevity economy” $20B Within the next five years we can expect advances in wearables will add 3-5 years to a person’s life expectancy. 2014 2015 2016E U.S. Adult wearable users $64MM $25MM 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  23. 23. 2016Predictions 23 06 23 Unicorn Companies ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  24. 24. 2016Predictions 24 Less than 10% of existing Unicorns will go public in 2016 at valuations greater than their current value. 24 06 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  25. 25. 2016Predictions 25 Next year several Unicorns will face down rounds when they go public below their most recent and highest growth private rounds. 25 06 Less than 10% of existing Unicorns will IPO at valuations greater than their current value 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  26. 26. 2016Predictions 2626 145 Number of Unicorns in the world (92 of which are in the U.S.) 06 Amount Square lost of its value following its highly anticipated IPO 1/3 0 70 140 210 280 169 IPOs 273 IPOs The IPO market fell to a six- year low in 2015 Private 2016Predictions Less than 10% of existing Unicorns will IPO at valuations greater than their current value ⎕ TED LEONSIS 2014 2015
  27. 27. 2016Predictions 27 07 27 Mergers & Acquisitions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  28. 28. 2016Predictions 28 An unexpected pairing will emerge after a company of a younger generation takes over an old one. 28 07 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  29. 29. 2016Predictions 29 The latest generation of companies —Google, Amazon, Uber, Tesla— will make a major transaction in business impacting an older generation of companies. Amazon might purchase the US Postal Service, Tesla buys Ford, Airbnb replaces Sabre systems, PayPal and Visa merge. 29 07 There will be an unexpected pairing. 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  30. 30. 2016Predictions 3030 $203B Apple cash reserves 07 Cumulative 2014 US M&A deals $1.4T There will be an unexpected pairing. 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  31. 31. 2016Predictions 31 08 31 Future Olympics ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  32. 32. 2016Predictions 32 The IOC will create an Olympic sub-group for robots to compete in their own events. 32 08 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  33. 33. 2016Predictions 33 The Japanese are leading the charge and are planning to include a robot village at the 2020 Tokyo games. 33 08 The IOC will create an Olympic sub-group for robots to compete in their own events. 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  34. 34. 2016Predictions 3434 25% Percentage of total supply belonging to China in 2014 08 Size of the global robot market by 2020 $40B The IOC will create an Olympic sub-group for robots to compete in their own events. 0 1.5 3 4.5 6 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 $6MM $2MM Consumer and office robot units shipped 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  35. 35. 2016Predictions 35 09 35 eSports ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  36. 36. 2016Predictions 36 E-gaming teams, stars and leagues will emerge and rival the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB. 36 09 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  37. 37. 2016Predictions 37 E-gaming leagues will rival NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB in terms of attendees and dollars spent; just as video games passed movie attendance revenues. 37 09 E-gaming teams, stars and leagues will emerge and rival the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB. 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  38. 38. 2016Predictions 3838 55MM Number of users on TWITCH, a popular video-streaming site for gamers 09 Number of people who watched or played eSports in 2014 205MM E-gaming teams, stars and leagues will emerge and rival the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB. 0 125 250 375 500 20172016 Size of the eSports market in millions 465 194 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS This trend is already taking hold in places like China and Korea eSports could also be a sub-category in the Olympics (similar to robots)
  39. 39. 2016Predictions 39 10 39 Television & Content ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  40. 40. 2016Predictions 40 Over-the-top (OTT) content will become the breakthrough platform for millenials. 40 10 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  41. 41. 2016Predictions 41 Cable and satellite connections are slowly disappearing as more consumers only use the Internet to deliver content. 41 10 Over-the-top (OTT) content will become the breakthrough platform for millenials. 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  42. 42. 2016Predictions 4242 57% Percentage of TV watching on a computer, tablet or smartphone by those ages 14-25 10 Minutes accounted for by mobile app consumption on mobile devices 7 of 8 Over-the-top (OTT) content will become the breakthrough platform for millenials. 0 9.5 19 28.5 38 NetflixHBO 37.7MM31.4MM Number of subscribers 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS
  43. 43. 2016Predictions 43 THANK YOU 43 2016Predictions ⎕ TED LEONSIS

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