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Mekong ARCC Climate ChangeImpact and Adaptation Study fornatural and agricultural systems                    Jeremy Carew-...
Assessing climate change threats to agriculture and                 subsistence livelihoods                               ...
Agro-ecological systems and climate change vulnerability continuum                                                        ...
Transition from subsistence to                commercial agriculture              Industrialization, rural-urban migration...
Climate change shiftsRegular climate1. Geographic shifts – change in area of suitability2. Elevation shifts (for highly re...
Geographic shift                         Shift in zone of suitability                                          for habitat...
Identifying climate change “hot spots” – i.e. highlyvulnerable areas   • High exposure:       significant climate change ...
Climate changehot spot -rainfall             8
Climate changehot spot -Temperature             9
Industrial and  commercial  crops and  climate change  hotspots
Lowland rice               11
upland rice              12
rubber         13
Coffee (coffea canephora)                            14
cassava          15
Maize        16
17
18
Sensitivity assessments:                    climate tolerancesOptimal growing conditions: Mean annual maximum temperature
Sensitivity assessments:                       climate tolerancesOptimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitation
Trends in commercial crops with                           climate change• Rubber: Projected increases in temperature and p...
RiceRice cultivation and extreme flooding• Extreme floods will be more common in rice based  production systems in Lowland...
RiceRice cultivation and sea level rise• A 30 cm rise by 2050 with increased flood extent,  depth and duration will result...
Thank youJeremy Carew-Reid,ICEM – International Centre for EnvironmentalManagementwww.icem.com.au                         ...
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[Mekong ARCC] Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for Natural and Agricultural Systems

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Mekong ARCC presented in Hanoi, Vietnam at the 2nd Global Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change sponsored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam, the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation of the Netherlands, FAO, and The World Bank. The presentation, entitled "Climate Impacts in the Lower Mekong: Implications for the Private Sector," was given as part of the larger session on the Role of the Private Sector in Climate Smart Agriculture. Utilizing data collected for the Mekong ARCC's Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study, the presentation showed how changes in temperature and rainfall by 2030 will push the boundaries of crops climate tolerance and land suitability in the transboundary Sesan River basin for key agricultural inputs such as cassava, coffee, rice and rubber. These climate shifts will have significant impacts on the ability of natural resource and commodity dependant companies to meet production targets. The presentation broadly demonstrated that the projections the Mekong ARCC Climate Study is generating can be critical inputs for private sector strategic planning and future regional investments. Conference organizers intend to link the results from the workshop to a variety of international processes, in particular to the Rio +20 follow-up process and partnerships, the work of the Committee on World Food Security (CFS), as well as the ongoing climate change negotiations under the UNFCCC.

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[Mekong ARCC] Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for Natural and Agricultural Systems

  1. 1. Mekong ARCC Climate ChangeImpact and Adaptation Study fornatural and agricultural systems Jeremy Carew-Reid, ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management www.icem.com.au September 2012 Hanoi 1a
  2. 2. Assessing climate change threats to agriculture and subsistence livelihoods Climate changes Hydrological changes Agricultural Ecological zones zones Species “zones” Commercial Subsistence Aqua- Traditional Live- Crop wild NTFPs Wild fish Wildlife crops crops culture crops stock relatives catchICEM, 2012 Adaptation options 2
  3. 3. Agro-ecological systems and climate change vulnerability continuum ICEM, 2012 3
  4. 4. Transition from subsistence to commercial agriculture Industrialization, rural-urban migration Small holdings Commercial Labour Increased intensive Land consolidation capital farms and intensity plantations Low capital intensitySubsistence Intermediate Commercial 4
  5. 5. Climate change shiftsRegular climate1. Geographic shifts – change in area of suitability2. Elevation shifts (for highly restricted habitats and species) – change in (i) location and (ii) elevation3. Seasonal shifts – change in (i) yields, (ii) cropping patternsExtreme events4. Extreme event shifts  Micro – eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands  Macro – eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclone landfall 5
  6. 6. Geographic shift Shift in zone of suitability for habitat and crops Original extent of natural habitat Paddy rice and commercial crops Remaining natural habitat Subsistence crops and NTF 6 pockets collection ICEM, 2012
  7. 7. Identifying climate change “hot spots” – i.e. highlyvulnerable areas • High exposure:  significant climate change relative to base conditions  exposure to new climate/hydrological conditions • High sensitivity:  limited temperature and moisture tolerance range  degraded and/or under acute pressure  severely restricted geographic range  rare or threatened • Low adaptive capacity  Poor connectivity  Low diversity and tolerances  Homogenous systems 7
  8. 8. Climate changehot spot -rainfall 8
  9. 9. Climate changehot spot -Temperature 9
  10. 10. Industrial and commercial crops and climate change hotspots
  11. 11. Lowland rice 11
  12. 12. upland rice 12
  13. 13. rubber 13
  14. 14. Coffee (coffea canephora) 14
  15. 15. cassava 15
  16. 16. Maize 16
  17. 17. 17
  18. 18. 18
  19. 19. Sensitivity assessments: climate tolerancesOptimal growing conditions: Mean annual maximum temperature
  20. 20. Sensitivity assessments: climate tolerancesOptimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitation
  21. 21. Trends in commercial crops with climate change• Rubber: Projected increases in temperature and precipitation would open upland areas for rubber cultivation.• Coffee plantations would suffer from changes in rainfall patterns and/or excess rainfall in the highland areas (especially Arabica).• Cassava: Relatively resistant to drought so would become a substitute in rain fed agricultural systems in drier areas BUT would have reduced suitability in high rainfall areas.• Sweet potato and key root crops not well suited to higher rainfall and soil moisture conditions and higher temperatures• Soybean would suffer from higher temperatures - shift to higher elevation may be required.• Bananas and mangoes: increases in temperature and precipitation would open upland areas for cultivation 21
  22. 22. RiceRice cultivation and extreme flooding• Extreme floods will be more common in rice based production systems in Lowland Cambodia and the Mekong Delta.• Flood would have a larger impact where agriculture is intensified, with high yielding rice varieties less resilient to flood than traditional ones.• Investment in intensive rice cultivation will become more risky• Other commercial crops such as fruit and vegetables are less resilient to flood than rice. 22
  23. 23. RiceRice cultivation and sea level rise• A 30 cm rise by 2050 with increased flood extent, depth and duration will result in a loss of 193,000 ha of rice area in the Mekong Delta.• Agriculture will be severely constrained by increased saline intrusion in the dry season and longer flood in the rainy season.• The double and triple cropping system commonly used in the Mekong Delta might not be possible.• Climate change will change the occurrence of plant disease and pests such as fungus and moulds, viruses, nematodes and a range of insects. 23
  24. 24. Thank youJeremy Carew-Reid,ICEM – International Centre for EnvironmentalManagementwww.icem.com.au 24

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