Mekong ARCC Interim Results Workshop: Challenges of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Agriculture [Keynote]
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ANDMITIGATION IN AGRICULTURE –CHALLENGES Vu Cong Lan National Institute of Agricultural Planning and Projection (NIAPP), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD)
CONTENTS1. OVERVIEW2. NATIONAL PROGRAMS3. FINDINGS4. CHALLENGES5. ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED
OVERVIEW Source:Items Unit Whole Farmers, Agriculture,http://www.gso.gov.vn country Rural Areas Amount (%)1. Population Million 87.84 59.95 68.252. Labor Million 51.4 36.1 70.33. Land Thousand ha 33,095.7 26,226.4 79.24. GDP Thou. Bill. 2,535 558 22 VND5. Investment Thou. Bill. 877.8 52.5 6 VND6. Population % 1.04 -0.77growth7. Unemployment Million 1.05 0.53 50.2
Share of Agriculture in Vietnamese Total GDP(percentage) Source: GSO
SEVEN ZONES IN VIET NAMAgricultural- forestry and fishery production - 7 zones:1. North mountainous and middle lands2. Red River Delta (RRD)3. North of Central Coastal Lines4. South of Central Coastal Lines5. Northeast of the Mekong River Delta6. The Central Highlands7. Mekong River Delta (MRD) 1. North Mountainous and Middle lands zone 2. Red River Delta zone 3. North of Central Cost zone 4. South of Central Cost zone 5. North East of the Mekong Delta zone 6. Central Highland zone 7. Mekong River Delta zone
SEVEN ZONES IN VIET NAM (Cont.)- Large population, high average density per square km, uneven distribution (Approx. 86people/km2 in the Central Highlands; 1204 people/sq. km in the RRD; 430 people/sq. km in the MRD).- RRD and MRD are most important areas (rice production, annual plantation, pig, poultry). The paddy rice fields both RRD and MRD are susceptible to CC and floods, especially MRD.- The Central Highlands for forestry, perennial plants and industrial trees.- Coastal lines for aquaculture, fishery and salt production.
Poverty Rate in Vietnam Source: GSO 2002 2006 2010COUNTRY 28.9 15.5 14.2Urban 6.6 7.7 6.9Rural 35.5 18.0 17.4REGIONRed River Delta 21.5 10.0 8.3Northeast 47.9 27.5 29.4Northwest 35.7 22.2 20.4North Central Coast 51.8 24.0 22.2South Central Coast 8.2 3.1 2.3The Central Highlands 23.4 13.0 12.6Southeast of MRD 6.6 7.7 6.9Mekong River Delta 35.6 18.0 17.4
NATIONAL PROGRAMSFood Security: Resolution No. 63/NQ-CP (23/12/09)• Vision • Food security objectives (to 2020) are broadly defined: • ensure (stable) availability of ample food supplies • eradicate hunger • reduce the incidence of child malnutrition down to 5% • improve the nutritional balance of the Vietnamese diet • Also: contribute to world food security; raise farmer incomes, improve food safety, improve export competitiveness; and raise efficiency and sustainability of food production.• Keeping land for rice cultivation at 3.8 mil ha
NATIONAL PROGRAMSProgram of GHG emission reduction in the Agriculture and RuralDevelopment up to 2020Objectives:1. To promote green and safe agricultural production to produce, low emissions, sustainable development and ensuring national food security, contributing to poverty reduction and effectively responding to CC.2. Up to 2020, to reduce by 20% of the total GHG emission in agriculture and rural development sector (18.87 million ton CO2); and simultaneously ensure the growth target of agriculture and rural development, and reduce the poverty rate according to sectoral development strategy.
NATIONAL PROGRAMSSEDS (2011-2020) and Agricultural Development Plan to 2020and Vision to 2030GDP growth rate of on average 7-8% per year.Income per capita will reach about $3,000 and VN becomes a middle-income country by 2020.The total share of agriculture will be around 15% and that of industry and service 85%.Share of agricultural labour will be 30-35%.Urbanization rate will reach 45% (55% in 2030).Human Development Index (HDI) will reach the average high- income group in the world.Population growth of 1%.Access to clean water for most of the population.Forest cover reaches 45%.Protection of the environment and improvement of environmental quality, active response to CC, control and prevention of natural calamities.
FINDINGS (Study on Food Security, Land Use andClimate Change by CDKN, NIAPP, LEI-Wageningen)1. Land Use Change:Economic development and structural change will lead toconsiderable change in land use under each of 3 scenarios(Business As Usual, BAU; High Climate Impact, HCI; HighEconomic Growth, HEG).2. Food Security:Large areas of paddy rice in RRD and MRD disappearunder each of 3 scenarios due to the expansion of built upland, especially RRD.However, the available land for paddy rice in 2030 is stillslightly larger than 3.8 million ha (targeted 2020).Therefore, maintaining at least 3.8 mil. ha requiresadditional policy measures.
FINDINGS (Cont. )3. Flooding:In addition to economic development, flooding induced byCC poses a serious threat to rice production in Viet Nam. Inparticular, the paddy rice fields in the low-lying MRD andRRD are susceptible to floods. To meet the flood securityrice target, policies are needed.4. CC and Biodiversity:Demand for land and forest resources will put pressure onspecial use forest. The loss of rich, mostly natural forest,will threaten biodiversity and deforestation will contribute togreenhouse gas (GHG) emission in Viet Nam. Policies areneeded that ensure protection of non-production forest andprotected forest.
FINDINGS (Cont.)5. Policy Trade-Offs:Land use policy trade-offs are necessary to mitigateconflicts, for instance reducing land use for rice andincreasing forest areas so as to reduce GHG emission willaffect food security negatively unless rice yields or riceimport increase.
VULNERABILITY and UNCERTAINTYVulnerable farmers:• Farmers in mountainous and remote regions• Artisanal fishers in central coastal region• Poor urban workers with unstable employment• Landless/near landless in MKD and RRD lacking reliable income sources
Future Uncertainties• Price volatilities• Natural disasters and climate impacts are unpredictable (short- tem and certain area)• Competition in land using for other purposes.• Regulations and financial support
CHALLENGES (for Farmers)More challenging physical conditions (arable land, water, inputs and energy).High level waste of food (every step of the food cycle).Livestock and biofuels likely lead to more crises.Over half of our food comes from only 3 plants (rice, corn, cassava) as compared to more than 50,000 edible plants.(by Daniele Giovanucci, et. Al)
CHALLENGES (for Policy-makers)• Strong commitment of high-ranking leadership, top-down manner, not bottom-up.• Policy trade-offs: Reducing land use for rice and increasing forest areas to reduce GHG emission will affect food security negatively.• Fragmentation of policy, institution and financing: Food security), CC mitigation and adaptation are Multi-purpose, multi-sector and large scope.
CHALLENGES (Data and Information)• Data shortage : Other crops (rather than rice). Irrigation, fishery; rural and rural occupations.• Data discrepancies and sharing: among line agencies (for instance land use)• Knowledge/data gaps: Knowledge about CSA is nonexistent or weak.• Information and impact forecast of water utilization and reservoir operation in upper Mekong river and detailed forecast of sea water raise at the sub-region, provincial and city levels are not available.• Information sharing and lesson learnt of CC adaptation and mitigation on agriculture among production sectors, regions.
CHALLENGES (Awareness)• Lack of general knowledge on CC, and quantitative and qualitative forecasts of CC impact on agriculture.• Lack of models which provide forecast on economic and agricultural growth, optimal land uses under CC impact.• In many cases, the CC adaptation and mitigation are not yet identified as one of main factor for setting agricultural planning at the sub-region, provincial levels and agro- production sectors in response to CC impact.
CHALLENGES (Awareness)• In the mid and short-tem agricultural planning options, CC impact and its uncertainties, risks, vulnerabilities and counter-measures are not identified yet.• Other strategies and national plans to support to setting agricultural planning at the region, sub-region and provincial levels in responding to the CC impact.• Climate smart agriculture (CSA): triple wins for food security, adaptation and mitigation. Maximize synergies and minimize trade-offs but trade-offs are inevitable.• Shortage budget allocation for studying and setting pilots and models of agricultural production under CC adaptation and mitigation.
ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED• More focus on “better production” and better food systems rather than “more” production• Aware of decision makers about the complex and uncertain relationships between global and local drivers of socio-economic change, and take a forward look when formulating food security and CC mitigation and adaptation policies, supporting the national Green Growth and REDD strategies.• Effective coordination and collaboration among line agencies (MONRE, MARD, etc.) both central and local levels in terms of policy, institutional arrangements and funding channels).
ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED• Socio-economic development, CC and food security are all interconnected at different scales. CC adaptation and mitigation should be taken into consideration in any sustainable agriculture development plan and strategy of 7 agro-forest-fishery production zones, especially the RRD and MRD.• Comprehensive collaboration effort and research on CC and its adaptation and mitigation should be at every level, ranging from community, local, region to nation.• Institutional capacity building for formulating policies and agricultural planning.
ISSUES TO BE ADDRESSED• International cooperation and collaboration with advanced countries and organizations, etc. in terms of experience and information sharing, analytic skills, forecast and necessary tools for assessment, etc.• Further introduction of models, such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE), Modular Applied General Equilibrium Toolbox (MAGNET), Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE), Agriculture and Land Use (ALU), etc. and their application in specific area, RRD and MRD.• GIS application (detecting variation of agricultural land use, predicting rice yield, etc.) should be further continued.