Turkish Arab Economic Forum

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Turkish Arab Economic Forum

  1. 1. Turkish-Arab Economic Forum May 28, 2014 Mehmet Şimşek Minister of Finance
  2. 2. Outline 2 • Pressing need for reforms & diversification MENA Outlook: At the crossroads? • A compelling case to invest in the region & Turkey Regional Integration
  3. 3. MENA Outlook: At the crossroads? 3
  4. 4. MENA: At the crossroads? 4 Managing Political Transition Ensuring Macroeconomic Stability Diversification Enhancing Human Capital Stock Improving Quality of Institutions Improving Business Environment Improving Infrastructure Job Creation Increasing Labor Market Flexibility Moving up the Value Chain Combatting Shadow Economy Reducing Poverty
  5. 5. Political Outlook: Arab Awakening Short-Term • Uncertainty • Disruption Long-Term • Democracy • Prosperity • Stability 5
  6. 6. MENA Economic Outlook 6
  7. 7. 7 5.7 3.0 5.5 3.9 4.1 2.2 3.2 5.1 5.0 4.4 1.7 2.0 2.7 2.7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Average 2000–08 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 MENA MENA oil importers Strengthening Growth RealGDPAnnualGrowth,% Source: IMF
  8. 8. 8 Inflation: Signs of Stabilization? 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Average 2000–08 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 MENA MENA oil importers (CPI,Annual,%) Source: IMF
  9. 9. Unemployment Remains High 9 YouthUnemployment(%) Unemployment (%) Source: Masood Ahmed, Director, IMF, published in the World Economic Forum’s Addressing the 100 Million Youth Challenge—Perspectives on Youth Employment in the Arab World in 2012, June 2012
  10. 10. Current Account Balance: Lower Surpluses 10 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Average 2000–08 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 MENA MENA oil importers CurrentAccountBalance(%,GDP) Source: IMF
  11. 11. 11 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Average 2000–08 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 MENA MENA oil importers Fiscal Outlook: Growing Need for Consolidation FiscalBalance(%,GDP) Source: IMF
  12. 12. Pressing Need for Diversification Oil Exporters Oil Importers 12
  13. 13. Oil Importers 13 Twin Deficits Fiscal Current Account
  14. 14. Large Twin Deficits 14 -4.0 -7.2 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 2000-08 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Current Account Balance Fiscal Balance %,GDP Source: IMF, Regional Economic Outlook, Nov 2012
  15. 15. Oil Exporters 15 Large Twin Surpluses Fiscal Current Account
  16. 16. Twin Surpluses 16 %,GDP Source: IMF, Regional Economic Outlook 11.9 2.6 -5 0 5 10 15 20 2000–08 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Current Account Balance Overall Fiscal Balance
  17. 17. 17 Fiscal position is weakening Fiscalbalance(%,GDP) Source: IMF REO Update May 2014
  18. 18. Non-Oil Fiscal Revenues remain Low 18 Non-oilrevenue(%.TotalRevenue.2013) Non-oil GDP (%, Total GDP, 2013) Source: IMF REO Update May 2014
  19. 19. Fiscal Vulnerability is Rising 19 Fiscalbreakevenprice*,2014 Current account break even price (2014) Source: IMF, REO Update May 2014 *Fiscal breakeven price: Oil price at which the fiscal balance is zero In many MENA oil exporters, energy subsidy costs exceed 10% of GDP
  20. 20. Probability that Oil Price Falls Below Fiscal Breakeven Price 20 (2017projection,%) Source: Caceres and Medina (2012)
  21. 21. Pressing Need for Reforms & Diversification Energy prices are likely to fall Domestic energy consumption is rising 21
  22. 22. Oil prices are likely to fall in the Long-Run BRIC slowing down Renewables Shale gas revolution Energy efficiency gains 22
  23. 23. Oil prices are likely to fall 23 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 75 80 85 90 95 100 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Index,2010=100 Brent$/bbl,2010Prices Crude oil, avg spot Energy Prices (rhs) Source: World Bank
  24. 24. 24 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2012 (Trillionsofcubicfeet) US Natural Gas Production
  25. 25. 25 Source: International Energy Agency, 2012 (Billionsofcubicmeters) Natural Gas Consumption in MENA
  26. 26. Benefits of Diversification Create more jobs Raise productivity Increase resilience to shocks 26
  27. 27. Intra-Regional Trade 27
  28. 28. Trade Volume (%, GDP) 28 Source: Behar, A. and C. Freund, 2011, The Trade Performance of the Middle East and North Africa Total Trade Excluding Oil Excluding Natural Resources MENA 47% 12% 8% WORLD 22% 19% 18%
  29. 29. Intra-MENA Exports (%) Total Excluding Oil Excluding Natural Resources 1994-97 10% 26% 31% 1998-2001 9% 23% 30% 2002-05 11% 24% 35% 2006-09 11% 25% 38% 29 Source: WTO, World Trade Report 2011 Behar, A. and C. Freund, 2011, The Trade Performance of the Middle East and North Africa North America 48% Asia 52% Europe 73%
  30. 30. An Overview of MENA Trade 30 Source: WTO, 2012 MENA Exports: $1,508 bn MENA Imports: $981 bn
  31. 31. Growing Trade Links between Turkey & MENA Turkey Turkey’s Exports to MENA: $41.5 bn • 4.2% of MENA Imports 31Source: TURKSTAT, 2013 Turkey’s Imports from MENA: $25.2 bn • 1.7% of MENA Exports
  32. 32. Source: TURKSTAT Share of MENA in Turkish Exports (%) 32 12.1 27.3 5 10 15 20 25 30 2002 2013
  33. 33. MENA: FDI Flows 2002-12 MENA FDI Flows: Inflows: $667.4 bn Outflows: $273.1 bn 33 Source: UNCTAD, 2012
  34. 34. MENA & Turkey: FDI Flows Turkey 34 Source: CBRT 2002-13 Turkey –MENA FDI Flows: Inflows: $13.1bn Outflows: $5.1 bn
  35. 35. Invest in the Region 35
  36. 36. MENA: A Sizeable Regional Market (GDP) Yemen $58 MENA: $3,129 bn MENA + Turkey: $3,949 bn 36Source: IMF, 2013
  37. 37. MENA: A Sizeable Regional Market (Population) Iran $475 bn Yemen $58 MENA: 389.3 million people MENA + Turkey: 464.9 million people 37 Source: IMF 3.5 mn 32.2 mn 35.9 mn 10.7 mn 6.5 mn 80.4 mn 32.7 mn 0.9 mn 25.1 mn 5.4 mn 28.2 mn 1.1 mn 1.8 mn 3.7 mn 32.9 mn 3.9 mn 6.3 mn 3.0 mn
  38. 38. Extremely favorable demographics Turkey: 50% 38
  39. 39. Huge Investment Needs $4.3 trillion infrastructure & construction projects by 2020 39 Source: 11th Power-Gen Middle East Conference, Mena Economic Forum Feb 2013
  40. 40. Invest in Turkey 40
  41. 41. Strong Fundamentals 41
  42. 42. Political Stability 42 15 Months 138 Months 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Average Lifetime of Governments during 1950-2002 AK Party Governments Since 2002 1923-2002 Average Lifetime of Governments: 17 months 2002-14 Political Stability 2023 Vision
  43. 43. 43 Rapidly Growing Economy 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 1993-2002 2003-13 Kaynak: TURKSTAT RealGDP(%)
  44. 44. 44 Real GDP: Turkey vs EMs Source: TURKSTAT, IMF 168.8 100.0 152.8 153.0 180.4 159.0 143.8 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Turkey Emerging & Developing Europe LatAm. & the Caribbean Developing Asia excl. China & India Russia South Africa TURKEY RealGDP(2002=100)
  45. 45. Real Convergence with the EUIncomePerCapita(PPP,%) Kaynak: IMF, OECD, TURKSTAT 22.7 36.0 37.0 59.6 10 20 30 40 50 60 2002 2013 Turkey /USA Turkey /European Union 45
  46. 46. Inflation 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: TURKSTAT (CPI,Annual,%) 46
  47. 47. 10.8 7.9 4.1 0.1 -1.3 0.2 1.6 5.5 3.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.1 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Maastricht Criteria: 3% Achieved Maastricht Criteria except 2009 Source: Ministry of Development BudgetDeficit-to-GDP,% Low Deficit 47
  48. 48. Budget Deficit (2014)BudgetDeficit-to-GDP,% Source: IMF, OECD, Ministry of Development 4.0 2.9 2.3 1.1 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 OECD EU-28 EMs Turkey 48
  49. 49. 74.0 67.7 59.6 52.7 46.5 39.9 40.0 46.1 42.3 39.1 36.2 36.3 33.0 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Lower Public Debt Debt-to-GDP,% Satisfying Maastricht Criteria since 2004 Maastricht Criteria: 60% Source: Treasury 49
  50. 50. Public Debt (2014) Source: IMF, OECD, Treasury Debt-to-GDP,% 111.8 89.0 33.3 33.0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 OECD EU EMs Turkey 50
  51. 51. Banks: Safe & Sound CapitalAdequacyRatio,% 2002 Mar-14 17.6 2.8 NPLRatioofLoans(%) 15.7 0 5 10 15 20 25 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 Legal Rate: %8 Target Rate 12% Source: BRSA 51
  52. 52. Turkey’s Banks - among the Strongest in EMs 52 Source: World Bank
  53. 53. Households: Low Leverage Source: CBRT, ECB (HouseholdLiabilities,%ofGDP,June2013) No FX exposure 65 23 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Denmark Netherlands Ireland United Kingdom Portugal Sweden Spain Finland Euro Area Greece Malta Germany France Luxembourg Belgium Austria Italy Estonia Poland Czech Republic Latvia Slovenia Hungary Slovakia Lithuania Turkey 53
  54. 54. Current Account Deficit: Getting Fixed? Source: CBRT 54 (12MonthRolling,USDbn) -60.0 -10.0 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jan02 Jul02 Jan03 Jul03 Jan04 Jul04 Jan05 Jul05 Jan06 Jul06 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14 Current Account Current Account excluding Energy Current Account excluding Energy and Gold Net Gold Exports • 2011: -$4.8 billion • 2012: +$5.7 billion • 2013: -$11.8 billion • 2014 Jan-Mar: $1.7 billion
  55. 55. Upside • Geopolitical tensions • Higher energy prices Downside • Faster recovery in Europe • More stable MENA • Softer domestic demand • Exchange rate weakness • Falling gold imports • Higher tourism revenues Outlook for C/A Deficit 55
  56. 56. Structural Reforms & Priorities 56
  57. 57. Chapter- 1 57 Enhancing Human Capital Stock Local & Renewable Energy Improving Infrastructure
  58. 58. Enhancing Human Capital Stock 58
  59. 59. Source: Ministry of Finance Share of Education Budget(%) 59
  60. 60. Investment Incentives in Education Sector 18% VAT down to 8% 50% tax relief on CIT & PIT for exports in education PIT and CIT exemption for 5 years on proceeds gained from education services 5th zone incentives for investments in pre-school, elementary, secondary and high school Allocation of public real estate to investors 60
  61. 61. Gross Schooling Rates Source: Ministry of Development 61
  62. 62. 12 Years of Mandatory Education Austral. Austria Belg. Canada Chile Czech R. Den. Estonia Finland France Italy Japan Lux Mex New Zeal. Poland Port. Spain Switz. TURKEY UK USA 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.5 AverageYearsatSchoolofPop’nover25Years Income per Capita (PPP, log) Source: OECD 62
  63. 63. 2002 91.1 girls per 100 boys 2012 101.8 girls per 100 boys Improving Girls’ Education 63
  64. 64. Source: OECD 76 74 47 51 38 46 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Science Math 2006 2009 2012 Enhancing Human Capital Stock: PISA Results, Gap b/w Turkey & OECD 64
  65. 65. Improving Quality of Education With Fatih Project, we are providing our children with Broadband Internet Access Smart Boards Tablet PCs Other Information Technology Tools 65
  66. 66. Local & Renewable Energy 66
  67. 67. High Dependence on Energy Imports 72% Total Energy 92% Oil 98% Natural-Gas 67
  68. 68. Source: TURKSTAT, Bloomberg Energy Import Bill (Brent,$pbl) EnergyImports(Billion$) 68 9.2 56.5 23.4 108.3 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mar Energy Import Oil Prices (rhs)
  69. 69. Developing Local & Renewable Resources Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Electricity Generation Installed Capacity MW % of Total Current Installed Capacity (2013) 64,044 - Renewable Energy 25,596 40.0 Power Plants Under Construction 14,338 - Renewable Energy 10,804 75.4 In 3-to-5 years 78,382 - Renewable Energy 36,401 46.4 69
  70. 70. Renewable Energy OutlookOverthenext decadeinTurkey, • 20,000 MW, wind power generation • 3,000 MW, solar power plants • 600 MW, geothermal power plants • An energy stock market to be established 70
  71. 71. 71 0 6 12 18 24 2010 2011 2012 2013 Module Inverter Other Hardware Soft Cost Costofelectricity,centsperkWh Source: DOE/NREL The Falling Price of Utility-scale Polar Photovoltaic Projects
  72. 72. Turkey’s Solar Energy Potential Atlas 72
  73. 73. Building Nuclear Capacity Akkuyu: JV with Russia Sinop JV with a Japanese-French consortium Working on a 3rd plant 73
  74. 74. Improving Energy Efficiency Industry 20% Transportation 15% Construction 30% 74
  75. 75. Improving Infrastructure 75
  76. 76. 1,714 Km Total of Motorways 4,387 Km Total of State and Provincial Dual Carriageways Total: 6,101 Km January 1, 2003 2,244 Km Total of Motorways 20,807 Km Total of State and Provincial Dual Carriageways Total: 23,051 Km January 2014 76
  77. 77. İSTANBUL EDİRNE ESKİŞEHİR Polatlı ANKARA KONYA İZMİR SİVAS AFYONKARHİSAR KAYSERİ BURSA ERZİNCAN ERZURUM KARS MERSİN ADANA DİYARBAKIR ELAZIĞ MALATYA ZONGULDAK SAMSUN Bandırma VAN MUŞ BİLECİK ÇANKIRI KIRIKKALE TEKİRDAĞ İZMİT BALIKESİR AYDIN DENİZLİ BURDUR ISPARTA UŞAK MANİSA KARAMAN NİĞDE OSMANİYE K.MARAŞ AMASYA BATMAN MARDİN Yerköy KARABÜK Yenişehir 405 km 212 km 533 km 624 km 105 km Completed (888 km) Under Construction (1796 km) Bidding Phase (454 km) Project Phase (354 km) GAZİANTEP Çobanbey 77 High Speed Railway Projects
  78. 78. Future Railways Investments By 2023 $ 45 billion worth of investment 10,000 km worth of new high speed railway network 4,000 km of new conventional line 78
  79. 79. İstanbul Antalya İzmir Gaziantep Trabzon Kayseri Samsun Erzurum Kars Van Diyarbakır Malatya Dalaman Bodrum Sivas Elazığ Bursa Ankara Ağrı Erzincan Muş Batman Mardin Şanlıurfa Adana Konya Denizli KKTC THY THY PegasusOnur Air SUN Express ATLAS JET Tokat Zonguldak BoraJet Edremit Siirt Gazipaşa Çorlu KKTC Iğdır Gökçeada Hata y Adana Antalya İzmir Gaziantep Trabzon Kayseri Ankara Bursa Samsun Erzurum Kars Van Mardin Malatya Dalaman Bodrum Konya Sivas Elazığ Sinop Nevşehir Adıyaman Batman Çanakkale Denizli Eskişehir Isparta Kahramanmaraş Merzifon Muş Uşak Ağrı Tekirda ğ Erzincan Diyarbakır Şanlıurf a İstanbul Kastamonu Bingöl Şırnak 2014 6 Airlines 7 Centers 52 Airports 2003 2 Centers 26 Airports In domestic lines the fastest growing country in Europe TURKEY Flight Points (Domestic Lines) 79
  80. 80. 2003 60 Points SunExpressPegasus ATLAS JET Onur Air 2014 236 Points THY THY SunExpress Increase : 294% 80 Flight Points (International Lines)
  81. 81. The 3rd Airport in Istanbul, Largest of All 150 million passengers An area of 90 million m2 Construction Cost: €10 billion Rent (25 Years): €22.2 billion 81
  82. 82. Projects of the Century - Under Construction Tube Tunnel 3rd Bridge Izmit Gulf Transit Istanbul-İzmir Highway High-Speed Train through Ankara-Bursa-Istanbul 82
  83. 83. Projects of the Century – Planned Channel Istanbul 83
  84. 84. Chapter- 2 84 Deepening Capital Markets Moving up the Value-Chain Reducing İnformal Economy
  85. 85. Deepening Capital Markets 85
  86. 86. 2009 72nd 2014 47th 2018 25th Global Financial Centres Index Source: Global Financial Centres Index 15 45 47 60 63 70 75 77 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Rio de Jeneiro ISTANBUL Warsaw Mauritius Mexico Prague Budapest (2014) 86
  87. 87. Strengthening the legal framework Improving physical infrastructure Simplifying tax system Providing financial education Istanbul as a Finance Center 87 Main Objective: Deepening Financial Markets
  88. 88. Sukuk 88 Sep-12: Sukuk issued for $1.5bn in international market Oct-12: Sukuk denominated in TL issued for TL1.6bn Feb-13: Sukuk issued for TL1.5bn Aug-13: Sukuk issued for TL1.8bn Oct-13: Sukuk issued for $1.3bn Feb-14: Sukuk issued for TL1.3bn Similar to eurobonds, internt’l holders are not s.t. w/holding tax
  89. 89. Increasing Savings: Private Pensions 25% State Contribution 1.4 million new participants and TL7.8bn funds since end-2012 89
  90. 90. Support for Start Ups Incentives for Biz Angels Incentives for VCs 90
  91. 91. Moving up the Value-Chain 91
  92. 92. Source: The Scientific and Technological Council of Turkey * % of GDP R&D Spending* 92 •3.00%2023 •1.8%2018 • 0.92%2012 • 0.53% 2002
  93. 93. Patent Applications Source: TPI 93 1,874 12,053 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 2002 2013
  94. 94. Trade Mark Applications(2012,Thousand) 86 64 54 44 41 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 TURKEY France Germany Italy Spain England 108* Source: Turkish Patent Institute *TURKEY 2013 Data 94
  95. 95. Tax Incentives for R&D R&D Expenditure • Corporate income tax relief • Personal income tax relief • State contributions to social security premiums • Exemption from stamp duty • Capital support for young entrepreneurs Strengthening the link b/w R&D and Commercial Activities • 50% tax relief on commercial use of patents, trademarks… • VAT exemption on patents, trademarks… 95 Since 2008, 155 R&D Centers
  96. 96. Reducing Informal Economy 96
  97. 97. 52.1 51.7 50.1 48.2 47.0 45.4 43.5 43.8 43.3 42.1 39.0 36.7 33.8 30 35 40 45 50 55 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Feb.-2014 InformalEmployment(%ofTotalEmployment) Reduced Informal Employment Source:TURKSTAT 97
  98. 98. Lowered Size of Shadow Economy (%, GDP) 32.2 31.5 30.7 30.4 29.1 28.4 28.9 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.5 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Schneider, 2013 Down 6 percentage points 98
  99. 99. Size of Shadow Economy (%, GDP) Source: Schneider, 2013 But still higher than EU average 31.2 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.6 26.5 25.5 25.2 24.3 23.8 23.6 23.1 22.1 21.1 19.0 18.6 18.4 16.4 15.5 15.0 13.9 13.6 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.2 9.9 9.7 9.1 8.0 7.5 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Bulgaria Romania Crotia Latvia Estonia TURKEY Lithuania S.Cyprus Malta Poland Greece Slovenia Hungary Italy Portugal Spain EUAverage Belgium CzechRep. Slovakia Sweeden Norway Denmark Finland Germany Ireland France UnitedKingdom Netherlands Luxemburg Austria SizeofInformalEconomy(2013,%,GDP) 99
  100. 100. Global Investors in Turkey 100
  101. 101. International Companies Operating in Turkey Source: Ministry of Economy 101 3,211 4,302 6,341 9,091 12,379 16,081 19,096 21,897 25,168 29,526 33,807 37,296 38,116 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mar
  102. 102. Foreign Direct Investment Inflows Source: CBRT (Billiondollar) 102 14.8 140.6 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 1980-2002 2003-2014 Mar
  103. 103. Strong Long-Term Prospects 103
  104. 104. Determinants of Long-Term Growth Quality of Institutions Demographics Productivity 104
  105. 105. Improving Quality of Institutions Corruption Perceptions: 2013: 53rd in 177 2002: 65th in 102 Ease of Doing Business: 2013-14: 69th in 185 2006: 84th in 175 Global Competitiveness: 2013: 44th in 148 2005: 71st in 117 Source: WB, WEF, Transparency International 105
  106. 106. Corruption Perceptions Index (2002) (65th among 102 countries) 31 44 45 58 59 65 70 73 74 96 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Italy Greece Brazil Mexico China TURKEY Argentina India Russia Indonesia Source: Transparency International 106
  107. 107. Corruption Perceptions Index (2013) (53rd among 177 countries) Source: Transparency International 53 69 72 80 80 94 106 106 114 127 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 TURKEY Italy Brazil China Greece India Argentina Mexico Indonesia Russia 107
  108. 108. Within the period of 2005-2012, Turkey has ranked higher than Russia, Argentina and Greece.(71st among 117 countries) 31 35 36 38 43 45 47 48 53 54 57 59 67 68 69 71 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Portekiz Hungary SlovakRep. Italy Poland India Greece China Russia Argentina Brazil Mexico Romania Ukraine Indonesia TURKEY Source: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index (2005) 108
  109. 109. (44th among 148 countries) Source: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index (2013) 29 38 42 44 49 51 55 56 60 63 64 76 78 84 91 104 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 China Indonesia Poland TURKEY Italy Portugal Mexico Brazil India Hungary Russia Romania SlovakRep. Ukraine Greece Argentina 109
  110. 110. (84th among 175 countries) Source: World Bank Ease of Doing Business (2006) 62 69 70 71 84 93 97 108 111 122 131 132 134 138 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Mexico Italy Uruguay Romania TURKEY Argentina Russia China Greece Brazil Indonesia Ukraine Croatia India 110
  111. 111. (69th among 189 countries) Source: World Bank Ease of Doing Business (2013) 53 65 69 72 73 88 89 92 96 112 116 120 126 134 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Mexico Italy TURKEY Greece Romania Uruguay Crotia Russia China Ukraine Brazil Indonesia Argentina India 111
  112. 112. GDP per Capita Low-Income $1,035-or less Lower-Middle-Income $1,036-$4,085 Upper-Middle-Income $4,086-$12,615 112 High-Income $12,616 and up 2002 $ 3,492 2013 $ 10,782 2016 $ 12,670 Source: TURKSTAT, Medium-Term Program, WB
  113. 113. GDP Source: TURKSTAT, Medium-Term Program,PwC 2002 2050 2002 $ 230 billion 2050 $ 5 trillion 2013 $ 820 billion 2023 $ 2 trillion 113
  114. 114. Ambitious Targets Source: IMF, PricewaterhouseCoopers 1. USA 2. China 3. India 4. Japan 5. Germany 6. Russia 8. UK 7. Brazil 9. France 10. Mexico 11. Italy 12. South Korea 13. Canada 14. Spain 15. Indonesia 16. Turkey 17. Australia 18. Iran 19. Saudi Arabia 20. Taiwan 2013 (GDP-PPP) 2050 Top 10 in the World Top 3 in Europe 6th in Europe 16th in the World 114 "We choose to go to the Moon" – J. F. Kennedy, September 12, 1962 Apollo 11 was the 1st manned mission to land on the Moon, July 20, 1969
  115. 115. 115 ‫ﺷﻛﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﺳﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﺗﻣﻌﻥ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻣﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺑﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺎﺩﺍ‬ ‫ﺗﻛﺳﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺗﺭﻗﻧﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﺫﺍ‬ Teşekkürler! Thank you!

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