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Effectiveness in the data age



         November 3rd 2011
This Presentation

•  What drives effectiveness and what should we measure?
•  Why some metrics and analytics are damaging to
   effectiveness
•  The ultimate data challenge: the dominant driver of
   effectiveness is usually ignored
•  What can we do about this?
Our main sources

     •  IPA dataBANK - 929 case studies - 30
        years of data


     •  Nielsen analysis of 30 UK packaged
        goods categories - 123 brands

     •  World’s leading database on creativity

     •  World’s leading global case study
        database
The measures of business success
 •  Effectiveness measured in terms of business results, not
    prizes.
 •  Key metrics:
    –  Effectiveness Success Rate.
       % cases showing very large effects across a range of business
       metrics, from sales to profit.
    –  Efficiency
       points of market share growth per 10 points of Extra Share of
       Voice (ESOV).
       ESOV = SOV minus SOM
What drives effectiveness and
 what should we measure?

    Broad findings from the IPA Databank
There is more to growth than
          volume
                              Price is the key to profit

70%

60%                                                      63%
50%                                                                     Incidence

40%

30%            36%                                                      Very large profit
                                                                        growth
20%                       26% 25%
                                         22%                   20%
                                                19%
10%
        5%
0%
      Price sensitivity   Share growth   Share defence   Sales growth
                          Campaign objective
Build advocacy not loyalty

                                    The myth of loyalty
                  Common practice...                                                 ...is not best practice
            25%                                                                     90%




                                                            Effectiveness success
                                                                                    80%
            20%                                                                     70%                                        82%
                                                                                    60%                        73%
Incidence




            15%
                    21%
                                                                                    50%




                                                                     rate
                                                                                    40%
            10%
                                 13%                                                30%
            5%                                                                      20%
                                                7%
                                                                                    10%        27%
            0%                                                                      0%
                   Increase    Increase     Increase both                                 Increase loyalty    Increase     Increase both
                    loyalty   penetration                                                                    penetration
                          Campaign objective                                                         Campaign objective
Awareness, image & short-term
  responses are over-rated
       The most popular objectives are not the most effective

 80%
 70%                                                 78%
                                         67%                    Incidence
 60%         67%          68%
       61%
 50%
                    55%
 40%                             46%                            Effectiveness
                                                                success rate
 30%                                           33%
 20%
 10%
 0%
       Awareness     Image         Direct       Fame
                    Campaign objective
Share of voice is still crucial
The concept of equilibrium SOV




Source: Marketing in the era of Accountability
How ‘extra’ share of voice drives
             growth
               Market share growth vs 'extra' share of voice

                                                       100%




                        Market share gain (% points)
                                                       80%



                                                       60%



                                                       40%



                                                       20%



                                                        0%
 -60%   -40%     -20%                                         0%   20%   40%   60%       80%          100%

                                                                                     ESOV (SOV-SOM)
                                                       -20%



                                                       -40%
The advantage of brand leadership

                                  1.6%

                                  1.4%
  Mkt share gain per 10% points




                                  1.2%         1.4%
        ESOV (% points)




                                  1.0%

                                  0.8%

                                  0.6%

                                  0.4%

                                  0.2%                               0.4%
                                  0.0%
                                         FMCG Brand Leaders   FMCG Challenger Brands
The difference between average
  strategy and ‘best in class’
                                 0.9%
 Mkt share gain per 10% points




                                 0.8%
                                 0.7%                              0.8%
       ESOV (% points)




                                 0.6%
                                 0.5%
                                 0.4%         0.5%
                                 0.3%
                                 0.2%
                                 0.1%
                                 0.0%
                                        FMCG Nielsen Average   FMCG IPA Average
The difference between traditional
  and multi-channel campaigns
                                        3.0%
   Mkt share gain per 10% points ESOV




                                        2.5%

                                                                                          2.5%
                                        2.0%
                (% points)




                                        1.5%

                                        1.0%
                                                          1.1%
                                        0.5%

                                        0.0%
                                               Traditional advertising alone   Advertising plus other channels
                                                              Communications channels used
TV enhances campaign efficiency

                                                   Campaigns 2004-2010
                                      1.0%
 Efficiency: Mkt share gain per 10%




                                      0.9%
                                                  0.9%
        points ESOV (% points)




                                      0.8%
                                      0.7%
                                      0.6%
                                      0.5%
                                      0.4%                                 0.5%
                                      0.3%
                                      0.2%
                                      0.1%
                                      0.0%
                                             Campaigns using TV     Campaigns not using TV
On-line enhances TV effectiveness
                                 80%

                                 70%
  Effectiveness success rate %




                                                                                       71%
                                 60%
                                                    63%
                                 50%

                                 40%

                                 30%

                                 20%

                                 10%

                                 0%
                                       Campaigns using TV without on-line   Campaigns using TV + on-line
Why some metrics can be
damaging to effectiveness
    How campaigns drive growth
Communications strategies
•  Effective campaigns aim to change behaviour.

•  Some try to do this in a primarily rational way, some
   primarily use emotions, and some use both.

•  Rational campaigns are the most common, but…
Emotional strategies are more
          profitable
                                     35%
V large profit gains (% reporting)




                                     30%
                                             30%
                                     25%
                                                             26%
                                     20%

                                     15%
                                                                            16%
                                     10%

                                     5%

                                     0%
                                           Emotional       Combined        Rational
                                                       Campaign strategy

Emotional campaigns outperform on almost every metric
…yield stronger business results
                                 60%
  Very large effect reported %




                                       56%
                                 50%

                                             47%                                                     Emotional
                                 40%
                                                                                                     campaigns

                                 30%
                                                   31%                                               Rational campaigns
                                                                                       28%
                                                         27%                                 26%
                                 20%


                                 10%
                                                                            11%
                                                                     2%
                                                               4%                 5%
                                 0%
                                        Sales       Share        Price       Loyalty   Penetration
                                                               elasticity

                                                               Metric
…build stronger brands
                               45%

                               40%
Very large effect reported %




                                     40%                                                         Emotional campaigns
                               35%
                                                                                                 Rational campaigns
                               30%         34%
                                                 32%

                               25%                            28%

                               20%                                                        22%
                                                                           20%
                               15%

                                                                    13%                         13%   14%
                               10%                     13%                                                  12%

                               5%                                                 8%                                  6%
                                                                                                                           5%
                               0%
                                     Awareness    Fame       Differentiation Commitment    Image        Quality        Trust
                                                                           Metric
The dangerous exception
                                    40%
V large short term direct effects




                                    35%                                    38%
                                                            35%
                                    30%
          (% reporting)




                                    25%     28%

                                    20%

                                    15%

                                    10%

                                    5%

                                    0%
                                          Emotional       Combined        Rational
                                                      Campaign strategy
The most powerful strategy?

                                        40%
Very large profit gains (% reporting)




                                        35%

                                        30%
                                              34%

                                        25%             28%
                                                                         26%
                                        20%

                                        15%
                                                                                           16%
                                        10%

                                        5%

                                        0%
                                              Fame    Emotional    Combined emotional   Any rational
                                                     involvement       & rational
                                                     Communications strategy
The power of Fame
                                                Fame campaigns achieve broader business success
                                60%
% achieving very large effect




                                50%                                 53%
                                                                          50%

                                40%                                                                      Fame
                                                                                                         campaigns
                                      34%
                                30%                                                         32%
                                                                                                  30%
                                                                                                         Other
                                20%         22%                                                          campaigns


                                10%                                             13%
                                                                                      9%
                                                      6%
                                                           3%
                                0%
                                       Profit          Price          Sales     Loyalty    Penetration
                                                     sensitivity
                                                                   Business metric
Fame campaigns are more efficient
                   Fame campaigns are 2.3 times more efficient

                       60%
          SOM growth                                              Other campaigns
                       50%
                                                                  Fame campaigns
                       40%

                       30%

                       20%

                       10%

                       0%
   -40%     -20%             0%   20%        40%       60%       80%        100%
                    -10%

                    -20%                                               ESOV

                    -30%

                    -40%
Implication for targeting
•  Fame is the antithesis of tight targeting – ‘waste’ can be
   good

•  By getting a brand and its marketing talked about:

   –  Give the brand a sense of stature and authority beyond its actual
      size
   –  Turn consumers into brand advocates
The ultimate data challenge

  The dominant driver of effectiveness
The impact of creativity
•  16 years of data
   –  367 campaigns
   –  65 creatively awarded
   –  20% international

•  Comparison of the efficiency of creatively awarded vs
   non-awarded campaigns
How ESOV drives growth:
overall efficiency for the sample
                       How ESOV drives market share growth

                              60%

                   SOM growth 50%

                              40%

                              30%
                                                              99% confidence
                              20%

                              10%

                               0%
     -60%   -40%       -20%          0%   20%   40%     60%     80%        100%
                              -10%

                              -20%                                    ESOV

                              -30%

                              -40%



On average 1.3 points of share growth per 10 points of ESOV
Efficiency of non-creatively awarded
                cases
                   Efficiency of non-awarded campaigns

                                  60%

                       SOM growth 50%

                                  40%

                                  30%

                                  20%                           99.7% confidence

                                  10%

                                   0%
         -60%   -40%       -20%          0%   20%   40%   60%       80%     100%
                                  -10%
                                                                          ESOV
                                  -20%

                                  -30%

                                  -40%



   On average 0.8 points of share growth per 10 points of ESOV
Efficiency of creatively awarded
           campaigns
                Efficiency of creatively awarded campaigns

                              60.0%
                 SOM growth
                              50.0%

                              40.0%

                              30.0%                               99.9% confidence

                              20.0%

                              10.0%

                               0.0%
     -60.0%   -40.0%   -20.0%      0.0%   20.0%   40.0%   60.0%       80.0%    100.0%
                             -10.0%                                           ESOV
                              -20.0%

                              -30.0%

                              -40.0%




On average 5.4 points of share growth per 10 points of ESOV
The power of creativity is clear
         Comparison of the efficiency of awarded and non-awarded campaigns
                            60.0%
            SOM growth
                            50.0%

                            40.0%                                                Creatively
                                                                                 awarded
                            30.0%
                                                                                 Non-creatively
                            20.0%                                                awarded


                            10.0%

                              0.0%
-60.0%    -40.0%   -20.0%         0.0%   20.0%   40.0%   60.0%   80.0%      100.0%
                            -10.0%
                                                                         ESOV
                            -20.0%

                            -30.0%

                            -40.0%



                   ~7:1 advantage in terms of efficiency
Non-awarded campaigns are
  becoming less efficient
       The efficiency of non-awarded campaigns has fallen over time

                      60%

        SOM growth    50%
                                                                          Pre 2004

                      40%
                                                                          2004 & post
                      30%

                      20%

                      10%

                       0%
-60%   -40%    -20%          0%   20%    40%     60%      80%      100%
                      -10%
                                                                ESOV
                      -20%

                      -30%

                      -40%
Whereas awarded campaigns are
   becoming more efficient
        The efficiency of creatively-awarded campaigns has risen over time

                       60%

         SOM growth    50%

                       40%

                       30%                                                 Pre 2004

                       20%
                                                                           2004 & post
                       10%

                        0%
 -60%   -40%    -20%          0%   20%    40%      60%     80%      100%
                       -10%
                                                                 ESOV
                       -20%

                       -30%

                       -40%

          Now ~12:1 advantage in terms of efficiency
How does creativity appear to
          work?
        Awarded campaigns are more likely to be emotional




                              100%!                              Communications
                                           19%                      model
    Proportion of all cases




                               90%!                      34%
                               80%!                                 Rational
                                            33%
                               70%!                                 Combined
                               60%!                      31%        Emotional
                               50%!
                               40%!
                               30%!         47%
                               20%!                      35%
                               10%!
                                0%!
                                      Creatively   Non-awarded
                                       awarded
How does creativity appear to
          work?
                                          50%
                                          45%   48%
Percentage reporting very large effects




                                          40%
                                          35%                               Creatively
                                                                            awarded
                                          30%
                                          25%           25%           25%   Non-awarded
                                          20%
                                                               23%
                                          15%
                                          10%
                                          5%
                                          0%
                                                 Fame         Awareness


                                                 +                -
So why is creativity getting more
          important?
                                                    The widening fame gap
                                        80%
  % reporting very large fame effects




                                        70%                       70%
                                        60%
                                                                                Creatively
                                        50%                                     awarded

                                        40%                                     Non-
                                                                                awarded
                                        30%
                                                                          29%
                                        20%
                                              28%
                                                      18%
                                        10%

                                        0%
                                              Pre 2004           2004 & post
The creative fame journey –
 the growing challenge for
       measurement
  The multi-channel idea makes non-holistic
           measurement irrelevant
The creative fame journey
•  From relying entirely on the popularity of great work to
   drive fame…

•  To developing on-line ‘collateral’ to drive and exploit the
   fame potential of a great idea
Mercedes Germany
Barclaycard
Barclaycard
Gillette India
Yellow Pages NZ




Source: CAANZ
What can we do about it?
Common practice             Best practice
•  Measure volume           •  Measure price elasticity
•  Measure loyalty          •  Measure advocacy
•  Measure brand awareness •  Measure brand fame
•  Measure immediate        •  Measure long term effects
   response
•  Promote rational         •  Promote emotional
   communication               engagement
•  Suspicious of creative   •  Reward creative awards
   awards
Further reading




                  Thank you

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  • 1. Effectiveness in the data age November 3rd 2011
  • 2. This Presentation •  What drives effectiveness and what should we measure? •  Why some metrics and analytics are damaging to effectiveness •  The ultimate data challenge: the dominant driver of effectiveness is usually ignored •  What can we do about this?
  • 3. Our main sources •  IPA dataBANK - 929 case studies - 30 years of data •  Nielsen analysis of 30 UK packaged goods categories - 123 brands •  World’s leading database on creativity •  World’s leading global case study database
  • 4. The measures of business success •  Effectiveness measured in terms of business results, not prizes. •  Key metrics: –  Effectiveness Success Rate. % cases showing very large effects across a range of business metrics, from sales to profit. –  Efficiency points of market share growth per 10 points of Extra Share of Voice (ESOV). ESOV = SOV minus SOM
  • 5. What drives effectiveness and what should we measure? Broad findings from the IPA Databank
  • 6. There is more to growth than volume Price is the key to profit 70% 60% 63% 50% Incidence 40% 30% 36% Very large profit growth 20% 26% 25% 22% 20% 19% 10% 5% 0% Price sensitivity Share growth Share defence Sales growth Campaign objective
  • 7. Build advocacy not loyalty The myth of loyalty Common practice... ...is not best practice 25% 90% Effectiveness success 80% 20% 70% 82% 60% 73% Incidence 15% 21% 50% rate 40% 10% 13% 30% 5% 20% 7% 10% 27% 0% 0% Increase Increase Increase both Increase loyalty Increase Increase both loyalty penetration penetration Campaign objective Campaign objective
  • 8. Awareness, image & short-term responses are over-rated The most popular objectives are not the most effective 80% 70% 78% 67% Incidence 60% 67% 68% 61% 50% 55% 40% 46% Effectiveness success rate 30% 33% 20% 10% 0% Awareness Image Direct Fame Campaign objective
  • 9. Share of voice is still crucial
  • 10. The concept of equilibrium SOV Source: Marketing in the era of Accountability
  • 11. How ‘extra’ share of voice drives growth Market share growth vs 'extra' share of voice 100% Market share gain (% points) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% ESOV (SOV-SOM) -20% -40%
  • 12. The advantage of brand leadership 1.6% 1.4% Mkt share gain per 10% points 1.2% 1.4% ESOV (% points) 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% FMCG Brand Leaders FMCG Challenger Brands
  • 13. The difference between average strategy and ‘best in class’ 0.9% Mkt share gain per 10% points 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% ESOV (% points) 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% FMCG Nielsen Average FMCG IPA Average
  • 14. The difference between traditional and multi-channel campaigns 3.0% Mkt share gain per 10% points ESOV 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% (% points) 1.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% Traditional advertising alone Advertising plus other channels Communications channels used
  • 15. TV enhances campaign efficiency Campaigns 2004-2010 1.0% Efficiency: Mkt share gain per 10% 0.9% 0.9% points ESOV (% points) 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Campaigns using TV Campaigns not using TV
  • 16. On-line enhances TV effectiveness 80% 70% Effectiveness success rate % 71% 60% 63% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Campaigns using TV without on-line Campaigns using TV + on-line
  • 17. Why some metrics can be damaging to effectiveness How campaigns drive growth
  • 18. Communications strategies •  Effective campaigns aim to change behaviour. •  Some try to do this in a primarily rational way, some primarily use emotions, and some use both. •  Rational campaigns are the most common, but…
  • 19. Emotional strategies are more profitable 35% V large profit gains (% reporting) 30% 30% 25% 26% 20% 15% 16% 10% 5% 0% Emotional Combined Rational Campaign strategy Emotional campaigns outperform on almost every metric
  • 20. …yield stronger business results 60% Very large effect reported % 56% 50% 47% Emotional 40% campaigns 30% 31% Rational campaigns 28% 27% 26% 20% 10% 11% 2% 4% 5% 0% Sales Share Price Loyalty Penetration elasticity Metric
  • 21. …build stronger brands 45% 40% Very large effect reported % 40% Emotional campaigns 35% Rational campaigns 30% 34% 32% 25% 28% 20% 22% 20% 15% 13% 13% 14% 10% 13% 12% 5% 8% 6% 5% 0% Awareness Fame Differentiation Commitment Image Quality Trust Metric
  • 22. The dangerous exception 40% V large short term direct effects 35% 38% 35% 30% (% reporting) 25% 28% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Emotional Combined Rational Campaign strategy
  • 23. The most powerful strategy? 40% Very large profit gains (% reporting) 35% 30% 34% 25% 28% 26% 20% 15% 16% 10% 5% 0% Fame Emotional Combined emotional Any rational involvement & rational Communications strategy
  • 24. The power of Fame Fame campaigns achieve broader business success 60% % achieving very large effect 50% 53% 50% 40% Fame campaigns 34% 30% 32% 30% Other 20% 22% campaigns 10% 13% 9% 6% 3% 0% Profit Price Sales Loyalty Penetration sensitivity Business metric
  • 25. Fame campaigns are more efficient Fame campaigns are 2.3 times more efficient 60% SOM growth Other campaigns 50% Fame campaigns 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% -10% -20% ESOV -30% -40%
  • 26. Implication for targeting •  Fame is the antithesis of tight targeting – ‘waste’ can be good •  By getting a brand and its marketing talked about: –  Give the brand a sense of stature and authority beyond its actual size –  Turn consumers into brand advocates
  • 27. The ultimate data challenge The dominant driver of effectiveness
  • 28. The impact of creativity •  16 years of data –  367 campaigns –  65 creatively awarded –  20% international •  Comparison of the efficiency of creatively awarded vs non-awarded campaigns
  • 29. How ESOV drives growth: overall efficiency for the sample How ESOV drives market share growth 60% SOM growth 50% 40% 30% 99% confidence 20% 10% 0% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% -10% -20% ESOV -30% -40% On average 1.3 points of share growth per 10 points of ESOV
  • 30. Efficiency of non-creatively awarded cases Efficiency of non-awarded campaigns 60% SOM growth 50% 40% 30% 20% 99.7% confidence 10% 0% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% -10% ESOV -20% -30% -40% On average 0.8 points of share growth per 10 points of ESOV
  • 31. Efficiency of creatively awarded campaigns Efficiency of creatively awarded campaigns 60.0% SOM growth 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 99.9% confidence 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% -10.0% ESOV -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% On average 5.4 points of share growth per 10 points of ESOV
  • 32. The power of creativity is clear Comparison of the efficiency of awarded and non-awarded campaigns 60.0% SOM growth 50.0% 40.0% Creatively awarded 30.0% Non-creatively 20.0% awarded 10.0% 0.0% -60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% -10.0% ESOV -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% ~7:1 advantage in terms of efficiency
  • 33. Non-awarded campaigns are becoming less efficient The efficiency of non-awarded campaigns has fallen over time 60% SOM growth 50% Pre 2004 40% 2004 & post 30% 20% 10% 0% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% -10% ESOV -20% -30% -40%
  • 34. Whereas awarded campaigns are becoming more efficient The efficiency of creatively-awarded campaigns has risen over time 60% SOM growth 50% 40% 30% Pre 2004 20% 2004 & post 10% 0% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% -10% ESOV -20% -30% -40% Now ~12:1 advantage in terms of efficiency
  • 35. How does creativity appear to work? Awarded campaigns are more likely to be emotional 100%! Communications 19% model Proportion of all cases 90%! 34% 80%! Rational 33% 70%! Combined 60%! 31% Emotional 50%! 40%! 30%! 47% 20%! 35% 10%! 0%! Creatively Non-awarded awarded
  • 36. How does creativity appear to work? 50% 45% 48% Percentage reporting very large effects 40% 35% Creatively awarded 30% 25% 25% 25% Non-awarded 20% 23% 15% 10% 5% 0% Fame Awareness + -
  • 37. So why is creativity getting more important? The widening fame gap 80% % reporting very large fame effects 70% 70% 60% Creatively 50% awarded 40% Non- awarded 30% 29% 20% 28% 18% 10% 0% Pre 2004 2004 & post
  • 38. The creative fame journey – the growing challenge for measurement The multi-channel idea makes non-holistic measurement irrelevant
  • 39. The creative fame journey •  From relying entirely on the popularity of great work to drive fame… •  To developing on-line ‘collateral’ to drive and exploit the fame potential of a great idea
  • 45. What can we do about it? Common practice Best practice •  Measure volume •  Measure price elasticity •  Measure loyalty •  Measure advocacy •  Measure brand awareness •  Measure brand fame •  Measure immediate •  Measure long term effects response •  Promote rational •  Promote emotional communication engagement •  Suspicious of creative •  Reward creative awards awards
  • 46. Further reading Thank you