AN INVESTIGATION OF CYCLISTS’ PREFERENCE FOR DIFFERENT JUNCTION TYPES   <ul><li>Presentation by: </li></ul><ul><li>MD NURU...
<ul><li>Minister for Local Transport says  ( NCS, DfT 2005) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bicycle underrated, underused and declin...
Why cycle? <ul><li>Problems </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing car use </li></ul><ul><li>Congestion </li></ul><ul><li>Pollution ...
Problems to cycle <ul><li>Road hazard –traffic, road features </li></ul><ul><li>Bicycles are vulnerable  </li></ul><ul><li...
Aim and objectives <ul><li>Aim To quantify how people trade-off to avoid junctions by taking additional time along routes ...
     Time   Risk  Traffic    Parkin  (2004)  Abraham,  McMillan, Brownlee & Hunt   (2000)   Ortuzer,  Iacobe...
Stated preference  (1) <ul><li>Well suited to analyse cycle facilities on relatively small samples   (Wardman et al. 1997)...
<ul><li>Goodness of fit - rho-squared,   0.2~0.4 good fit </li></ul><ul><li>Robustness of coefficients </li></ul><ul><ul><...
Methodology <ul><li>Data collection </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Questionnaire interview – face to face </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><l...
Grouping of video clips Source: Parkin (2004) Note: Clips, numbers coloured, were used in the survey 39 Back street 6,  8,...
Attributes and levels  (1) <ul><ul><li>Time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Base time - 15 minutes, cycle time to work  </li></...
<ul><li>Route facility </li></ul><ul><li>Part of the trip may take enhanced route facilities </li></ul><ul><li>Facilities ...
<ul><li>Junctions </li></ul><ul><li>Additional penalty for negotiating junctions </li></ul><ul><li>Worse with crossing con...
<ul><li>Option 1 </li></ul><ul><li>Time-15 min </li></ul><ul><li>Turn-No right turn </li></ul><ul><li>Right turn signal </...
Respondents at a glance <ul><li>Total respondents   = 37 ( all can cycle) </li></ul><ul><li>Do not cycle = 02 </li></ul><u...
Comments by the respondents  (1) <ul><li>Cycle lanes  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not always suitable, fine if suits speed & dir...
<ul><li>Roundabout and signalised junctions   </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Roundabouts are dangerous, often difficult </li></ul><...
Model results  (p/1) Contd. (T-ratio in brackets) -0.7059 (-2.5) - -0.7235 (-2.6) - -0.6968 (-2.6) - Bus Lane (DBL) - -0.0...
Model results  (p/2) Note: 1. RTS – Right turn at signal (T-ratio in brackets) 1.369 (2.5) 1.369 (2.5) NCO*RTS -1.378 (-2....
Rho squared Constant in models  Model results   (p/3) 18.74 0.2051 0.2524 17.23 0.2047 0.2473 Multiplicative 8.76 0.1937 0...
Conclusion <ul><li>Time on no facility road, time on bus lane, bus lane itself and ‘no car owners’ are statistically signi...
Limitations <ul><li>Some interviewee had to remind to opt based on clips </li></ul><ul><li>Few of them looked for clues to...
Recommendations <ul><li>Further studies to include priority, T and staggered junctions; also lane facilities at junctions ...
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AN INVESTIGATION OF CYCLISTS’ PREFERENCE FOR DIFFERENT JUNCTION TYPES

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The study aims to quantify how people make trade-offs to avoid junctions by taking additional time along routes with and without cycle facilities in the UK context. A video based stated preference survey and analysis is undertaken to investigate how people feel approaching junctions, determine the relative importance of the features of junctions, determine how cycle facilities compensate the exposure of right turn risks at junctions at the cost of additional time and identify the person type factors that also influence choice. Primary data is used for the study. The survey work for the primary data constituted a major part of the study.

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AN INVESTIGATION OF CYCLISTS’ PREFERENCE FOR DIFFERENT JUNCTION TYPES

  1. 1. AN INVESTIGATION OF CYCLISTS’ PREFERENCE FOR DIFFERENT JUNCTION TYPES <ul><li>Presentation by: </li></ul><ul><li>MD NURUL HUDA </li></ul><ul><li>Supervisor: </li></ul><ul><li>Dr. John Parkin </li></ul><ul><li>Institute for Transport Studies </li></ul><ul><li>The University of Leeds </li></ul><ul><li>05 September 2005 </li></ul>
  2. 2. <ul><li>Minister for Local Transport says ( NCS, DfT 2005) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bicycle underrated, underused and declining in UK </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2% of all trips (Sweden 10%, Germany 11%, Switzerland 15%, Denmark 18%) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But higher sales show strong interest in cycling </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2001 census (ITS 2005a) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cycling 2.89% of all modes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Only 13.6% of the users were regular cyclists </li></ul></ul>Level of cycle use
  3. 3. Why cycle? <ul><li>Problems </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing car use </li></ul><ul><li>Congestion </li></ul><ul><li>Pollution </li></ul><ul><li>Scarce road and parking space </li></ul><ul><li>Need for sustainable transport </li></ul><ul><li>Prospects </li></ul><ul><li>Cycling has a role in transport policy </li></ul><ul><li>Suits short trip </li></ul><ul><li>Good for door to door trip along with PT </li></ul><ul><li>Healthy & enjoyable </li></ul><ul><li>Economic & efficient </li></ul>
  4. 4. Problems to cycle <ul><li>Road hazard –traffic, road features </li></ul><ul><li>Bicycles are vulnerable </li></ul><ul><li>Cycling in junction is difficult </li></ul><ul><li>Taking right turns - more difficult </li></ul><ul><li>Motorists undermine cycles </li></ul><ul><li>Route facility sometimes discontinue where needs most </li></ul>
  5. 5. Aim and objectives <ul><li>Aim To quantify how people trade-off to avoid junctions by taking additional time along routes with and without cycle facilities </li></ul><ul><li>Objectives </li></ul><ul><li>To investigate how people feel approaching junctions </li></ul><ul><li>To determine the relative importance of features of junctions </li></ul><ul><li>To determine how cycle facilities compensate right turn risks at junctions at the cost of additional time </li></ul><ul><li>To identify the person type factors that adds this influence. </li></ul>
  6. 6.      Time   Risk  Traffic    Parkin (2004)  Abraham, McMillan, Brownlee & Hunt (2000)   Ortuzer, Iacobelli & Valeze (2000)  Wardman, Page, Tight & Sui (2000)    Sui, Wardman, Page & Tight (2000)  Wardman, Hatfield & Page (1997)   Hopkinson & Wardman (1996)  Bovy & Bradley (1985)   Waldman (1977) Person type Facility Hilliness Danger Previous works
  7. 7. Stated preference (1) <ul><li>Well suited to analyse cycle facilities on relatively small samples (Wardman et al. 1997) </li></ul><ul><li>Hypothetical scenarios offered to choose the best </li></ul><ul><li>Choice based SP: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>‘ the easiest, quicker and more natural’ ( Ortúzar 2000) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>widely accepted and used (Pearmain and Kroes 1991) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Utility function – linear </li></ul><ul><li>Components – deterministic & stochastic </li></ul><ul><li>Choice depends on deterministic component </li></ul><ul><li>Co-efficient based on residual variation </li></ul><ul><li>The higher the random error, the lower the co-efficient (Wardman et al. 2000) </li></ul>
  8. 8. <ul><li>Goodness of fit - rho-squared, 0.2~0.4 good fit </li></ul><ul><li>Robustness of coefficients </li></ul><ul><ul><li>statistical significance, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>i.e. T-ratio (= co-eff./standard error) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>sign, values of the coefficients </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Outputs: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>coefficient of estimates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>t -statistics and standard errors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Log-Likelihood measure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>rho squared </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>correlation matrix </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Assumptions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>choice depends on limited factors, others constant </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>relationship between factors and probability of choice </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>functional form </li></ul></ul>Stated preference (2)
  9. 9. Methodology <ul><li>Data collection </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Questionnaire interview – face to face </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Aided by - choice cards, videos </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sample population - cyclists in the UK </li></ul><ul><li>Questionnaire </li></ul><ul><ul><li>cycling habit - frequency and purpose </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>choice exercises – difference design </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>person types </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>comments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>testing questionnaire & refine </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Main survey </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis - database and use of software </li></ul>
  10. 10. Grouping of video clips Source: Parkin (2004) Note: Clips, numbers coloured, were used in the survey 39 Back street 6, 8, 10 , 28, 31, 32, 36, 37 No cycle facility 19, 20, 49, 50 , 51, 54 Cycle lane 31 Priority 6, 19, 32, 36, 51 Straight on 18 Bus lane 6, 8 , 19, 20 Signalised junction 8, 20, 31, 37 , 50 Right turn 38 Res. street 32, 36, 37 , 50 , 51 Roundabout Clips Types Clips Types Clips Types Turns Facilities Junctions
  11. 11. Attributes and levels (1) <ul><ul><li>Time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Base time - 15 minutes, cycle time to work </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(Wardman et al, 2000) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Additional 10 minutes - for variation in trips </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Three levels: 18, 21 and 25 minutes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Level 0 15-18 = - 3 minutes difference </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Level 1 15-21 = - 6 minutes difference </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Level 2 15-25 = -10 minutes difference </li></ul></ul></ul>
  12. 12. <ul><li>Route facility </li></ul><ul><li>Part of the trip may take enhanced route facilities </li></ul><ul><li>Facilities considered: </li></ul><ul><li>– bus lane, cycle lane, residential street </li></ul><ul><li>– these cover half the trip </li></ul><ul><li>Three levels: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Level 0 50% No facility + 50% bus lane </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Level 1 50% No facility + 50% cycle lane </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Level 2 50% No facility + 50% residential street </li></ul></ul></ul>Attributes and levels (2)
  13. 13. <ul><li>Junctions </li></ul><ul><li>Additional penalty for negotiating junctions </li></ul><ul><li>Worse with crossing conflicts and right turn </li></ul><ul><li>Three levels – </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Level 0 No right turn </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Level 1 Right turn at signals </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Level 2 Right turn at roundabout </li></ul></ul></ul>Attributes and levels (3)
  14. 14. <ul><li>Option 1 </li></ul><ul><li>Time-15 min </li></ul><ul><li>Turn-No right turn </li></ul><ul><li>Right turn signal </li></ul><ul><li>Right turn RA </li></ul><ul><li>Facility- Absent </li></ul><ul><li>Option 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Time-18/21/25 min </li></ul><ul><li>Turn- Absent </li></ul><ul><li>Facility- Bus lane </li></ul><ul><li>Cycle lane </li></ul><ul><li>Residential street </li></ul>Organisation of choice
  15. 15. Respondents at a glance <ul><li>Total respondents = 37 ( all can cycle) </li></ul><ul><li>Do not cycle = 02 </li></ul><ul><li>Female = 06 </li></ul><ul><li>Young (17~ 34 yrs) = 22 (av. age=26.4 yrs) </li></ul><ul><li>Old (45~65 yrs) = 08 (av. age=53.4 yrs) </li></ul><ul><li>Regular cyclist = 29 (>1~2 times/wk ) </li></ul><ul><li>Commuters = 28 </li></ul><ul><li>No car owner = 23 </li></ul><ul><li>Urban = 22 </li></ul>
  16. 16. Comments by the respondents (1) <ul><li>Cycle lanes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not always suitable, fine if suits speed & direction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dangerous - car drivers do not pay attention </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ASL important and dangerous without it </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More clearly defined space, sufficiently wider </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Bus lanes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fine, if no buses around </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cyclists get squeezed, hence dangerous </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Buses tend to get off and push </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Often avoid residential streets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fear of mugging, esp. in evening times </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sometimes traffic undisciplined </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. <ul><li>Roundabout and signalised junctions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Roundabouts are dangerous, often difficult </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mini roundabout fine </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Signalised junction okay </li></ul></ul><ul><li>General points </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Longer routes are worth taking to avoid junctions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Negotiate junctions like motorists keeping eye contact </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More signals required at junctions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Heavier traffic on routes in practical than shown in videos </li></ul></ul>Comments by the respondents (2)
  18. 18. Model results (p/1) Contd. (T-ratio in brackets) -0.7059 (-2.5) - -0.7235 (-2.6) - -0.6968 (-2.6) - Bus Lane (DBL) - -0.06715 (-2.5) - -0.0686 (-2.5) - -0.06617 (-2.5) Time + Bus Lane (TIBL) -0.7713 (-7.6) -0.7519 (-7.5) -0.7612 (-7.6) -0.741 (-7.4) -0.7315 (-7.5) -0.7121 (-7.4) Time + no Facility ( TIRNF) 3.886 (7.3) 3.803 (7.1) 3.744 (7.1) 3.659 (6.9) 3.376 (7.3) 3.294 (7.1) Constant 0.2051 0.2047 0.1937 0.1931 0.1677 0.1671 Rho-sq (C) -178.7253 -178.8208 -181.2982 -181.432 -187.143 -187.2676 LL (F) 331 331 331 331 331 331 Observations Facility Time Facility Time Facility Time Multipl. model Additive model Base model Items
  19. 19. Model results (p/2) Note: 1. RTS – Right turn at signal (T-ratio in brackets) 1.369 (2.5) 1.369 (2.5) NCO*RTS -1.378 (-2.4) -1.384 (-2.5) YOUNG*RTS 1 -0.6833 (-3.8) -0.6848 (-3.8) -0.8862 (-3.1) -0.8846 (-3.1) No car owner cyclists (NCO) 0.8689 (2.5) 0.8753 (2.5) - - YOUNG - - 0.5351 (2.0) 0.5341 (2.0) Urban cyclists (URB) Facility Time Facility Time Facility Time Multi. model Additive model Base model Item
  20. 20. Rho squared Constant in models Model results (p/3) 18.74 0.2051 0.2524 17.23 0.2047 0.2473 Multiplicative 8.76 0.1937 0.2123 9.17 0.1931 0.2126 Additive 4.28 0.1677 0.1752 4.79 0.1671 0.1755 Base Drop (%) Final Initial Drop (%) Final Initial Facility Time Models -2.17 3.886 3.972 -1.58 3.803 3.864 Multiplicative 5.17 3.744 3.56 7.97 3.659 3.389 Additive 1.63 3.376 3.322 4.34 3.294 3.157 Base Pick up (%) final initial Pick up (%) final initial Facility Time Models
  21. 21. Conclusion <ul><li>Time on no facility road, time on bus lane, bus lane itself and ‘no car owners’ are statistically significant </li></ul><ul><li>Urban and young and are found significant in additive and multiplicative models respectively </li></ul><ul><li>Urban people are used to cycle junctions </li></ul><ul><li>Young people accept to cycle, but do not like to ride signalised junctions </li></ul><ul><li>NCO love not to cycle, they find signalised junctions better </li></ul><ul><li>Right turns and cycle facility have no significance, may be due to individual preferences in the sample </li></ul>
  22. 22. Limitations <ul><li>Some interviewee had to remind to opt based on clips </li></ul><ul><li>Few of them looked for clues to respondent </li></ul><ul><li>Some experience more traffic than in videos </li></ul><ul><li>Some chose facilities, although they would not prefer while cycling </li></ul><ul><li>Number of respondents would be more if some cyclists (esp. female) did not avoid </li></ul><ul><li>Much earlier contact to interviewees was necessary </li></ul><ul><li>Time consuming, overall survey time was much longer </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of balance between sex, age and cycling habit </li></ul>
  23. 23. Recommendations <ul><li>Further studies to include priority, T and staggered junctions; also lane facilities at junctions </li></ul><ul><li>To investigate why the constant picks up on expansion of models </li></ul><ul><li>To balance between sexes and age, also between occasional and regular cyclists </li></ul>
  24. 24. Thank you!!

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