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McKinsey Survey: German consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

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McKinsey & Company 1
We have seen four fundamental shifts to consumer behavior, some
of which will have a lasting impact, ...

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McKinsey & Company 2
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
1 Q: How is your overa...

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McKinsey & Company 3
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
1 Q: How is your overa...

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McKinsey Survey: German consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

Despite new lockdowns, optimism increased among Germans, with more expecting the economy to bounce back soon.

These exhibits are based on survey data collected in Germany from November 9–16, 2020. Check back for regular updates on German consumer sentiments, behaviors, income, spending, and expectations.

Despite new lockdowns, optimism increased among Germans, with more expecting the economy to bounce back soon.

These exhibits are based on survey data collected in Germany from November 9–16, 2020. Check back for regular updates on German consumer sentiments, behaviors, income, spending, and expectations.

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McKinsey Survey: German consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

  1. 1. McKinsey & Company 1 We have seen four fundamental shifts to consumer behavior, some of which will have a lasting impact, as a result of the pandemic Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053; sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years Up to 20% net increase in intent to spend online even post-COVID-19 2. Flight to digital and omnichannel Up to 56% consumers (net) say they will decrease spend on discretionary categories 1. Shift to value and essentials 56% of consumers have changed stores, brands or the way they shop 3. Shock to loyalty 91% of German consumers are not yet resuming “normal” out-of-home activities 4. Homebody economy
  2. 2. McKinsey & Company 2 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents 1 Q: How is your overall confidence level in economic conditions after the COVID-19 situation? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Bars may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey Spain 11/9–16 UK 11/9–16 Italy 11/9–16 China 11/9–22 Brazil 11/9–15 France 11/9–16 7 13 12 15 18 31 40 33 37 33 31 40 46 51 53 59 52 47 54 52 60 62 58 41 38 33 23 17 14 13 11 7 2 Mexico 11/9–17 Japan 11/9–15 India 11/9–20 Unsure: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression/ fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Germany 11/9–16 Shift to value and essentials Europe is less optimistic than other countries, except for Japan US 11/9–13
  3. 3. McKinsey & Company 3 Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents 1 Q: How is your overall confidence level in economic conditions after the COVID-19 situation? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053; 9/24–9/27/2020, n = 1,053; 6/18–6/21/2020, n = 1,011; 5/21–5/24/2020, n = 1,008; 4/30–5/3/2020, n = 1,002; 4/16–4/19/2020, n = 1,005; 4/2–4/5/2020, n = 1,010; 3/28–3/29/2020, n = 1,002; 3/24–3/25/2020, n = 1,014, sampled and weighted to match Germany’s general population 18+ years The Germany Unsure: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression / fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 Shift to value and essentials Despite new lockdowns, optimism in Germany has increased and returned to levels last seen at the end of April 15% 15% 12% 13% 17% 16% 16% 17% 18% 60% 58% 64% 63% 60% 64% 63% 66% 59% 25% 27% 25% 24% 23% 20% 21% 17% 23% Sept 24-27May 21-24April 30-May 3 100% Mar 20-22 June 18-21Mar 26-29 April 16-19April 2-5 Nov 9-16 100%100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  4. 4. McKinsey & Company 4 1 Q: When do you expect your routines will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: When do you expect your personal/household finances will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, sample and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years 12% 14% 17% 28% 7% 22% Already returned to normal Jan–Mar 2021 Apr–Jun 2021 Jul–Sep 2021 Oct–Dec 2021 2022 or beyond 48% 7% 9% 10% 12% 6% 9% Oct–Dec 2021 Jul–Sep 2021 No impact Already returned to normal Jan–Mar 2021 Apr–Jun 2021 2022 or beyond Expectations on routines returning to normal1 % of respondents Expectations on finances returning to normal2 % of respondents ~51% believe their routines will not return to normal until the second half of 2021 or beyond ~26% believe their finances will not return to normal until the second half of 2021 or beyond Shift to value and essentials Germans believe that the impact of COVID-19 on routines will last longer than the impact on finances
  5. 5. McKinsey & Company 5 Household income1,2 % of respondents 1 Q: How has the COVID-19 situation affected your (family’s) overall available income, spending, and savings in the past two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: How do you think your overall available income, spending, and savings may change in the next two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Household spending1,2 % of respondents September 24–27 November 17–21 September 24–27 November 17–21 Household savings1,2 % of respondents September 24–27 November 17–21 Shift to value and essentials Reduce slightly / reduce a lot About the same Increase slightly / increase a lot Past 2 weeks 75% 4% 77% 3% 21% Past 2 weeks 19% 5% 80% 15% Next 2 weeks 10% 65% 28%26% Past 2 weeks 12% 60% Past 2 weeks 7% 70% 23% Next 2 weeks Impact on income, spending, and savings did not change notably compared to September Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053; 9/24–9/27/2020, n = 1,053, sample weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years 61% 14% 68% 18% Past 2 weeks 15% Next 2 weeks 25% Past 2 weeks 12% 73% 15%
  6. 6. McKinsey & Company 6 Change in shopping mindset since COVID-191 % of respondents 1 Q: Which best describes how often you are doing each of the following items? Possible answers: “doing less since coronavirus started”; “doing about the same since coronavirus started”; “doing more since coronavirus started”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Shift to value and essentials 5% 3% 6% 5% 11% 62% 69% 72% 74% 70% 32% 28% 22% 21% 19% Spending time planning / making lists for shopping trips Becoming more mindful of where I spend my money Looking for ways to save money when shopping 100% Changing to less expensive products to save money Investing in new ways of shopping online Doing less Doing about the same Doing more German consumers are becoming more mindful of how they spend their money when shopping, and adopting new habits to save Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years
  7. 7. McKinsey & Company 7 Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual1 % of respondents 1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. 3 Not included or insufficient sample (n = < 75) in first survey. 5 21 18 29 27 57 81 40 37 55 58 15 8 19 49 16 18 9 22 7 5 6 4 2 9 5 5 6 7 Take out/delivery Footwear Alcohol Furnishing & appliances Skincare & make up Tobacco products Groceries Snacks 5 5 Quick service restaurant 1Restaurant 3 Personal care products Household supplies Apparel Jewelry Non-food child products Accessories 4 OTC medicines Decrease Stay the same Increase 20 12 19 37 83 27 58 44 31 80 64 79 83 84 86 74 7 13 10 9 2 4 2 6 1 4 3 1 2 1 4 Entertainment at home Vitamins / supplements Books/magazines/newspaper Consumer electronics Out of home entertainment Petcare services Fitness & wellness 3Personal care services Gasoline Vehicle purchases Domestic flights Short-term home rentals Travel by car Cruises Adventures & tours International flights Hotel/resort stays Net intent2Net intent2 13 -6 -3 -43 -12 -13 -7 -20 -52 -80 -37 -31 -51 -56 0 -15 -9 1 -9 -28 -81 -23 -56 -41 -25 -79 -60 -76 -82 -82 -85 -70 -13 Net intent: Above +1 Net intent: -15 to 0 Net intent: Below -15 Change since first survey Change since first survey Shift to value and essentials While net spending intent has increased since March, consumers still expect to decrease spending across discretionary categories Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053; 3/28–3/29/2020 n = 1,002 sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years +1 +6 -4 +4 +4 +19 +5 +19 +18 +14 +14 +7 +2 +1 +10 +19 N/A3 N/A3 -11 +5 +8 +6 +16 +6 -40 +24 -11 +14 -9 -6 -1 +1 +16 NA3 NA3 NA3
  8. 8. McKinsey & Company 8 Shift to value and essentials Essential spending remains robust; discretionary spending varies -10 -30 -70 -60 -50 -40 -20 0 10 20 May21 Personal-care products Jun18 Mar24 Mar26 Apr2 Apr16 Apr30 Sep24 Nov9 Groceries Household supplies Skin care & makeup Fitness & wellness Apparel Consumer electronics Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual1 Net intent2 1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/9–11/16/2020, n = 1,053; 9/24–9/27/2020, n = 1,053; 6/18–6/21/2020, n = 1,011; 5/21–5/24/2020, n = 1,008; 4/30–5/3/2020, n = 1,002; 4/16–4/19/2020, n = 1,005; 4/2–4/5/2020, n = 1,010; 3/26–3/29/2020, n = 1,002; 3/24–3/25/2020, n = 1,014; sampled and weighted to match Germany’s general population 18+ years
  9. 9. McKinsey & Company 9 More people expect to make a portion of their purchases online post-COVID-19 than before… Consumers’ use of online channel before and expected use after COVID-191,2 % of respondents purchasing online3 1 Q: Before the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation started, what proportion of your purchases in this category were online vs from a physical store/in person? 2 Q: Once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided, tell us what proportion of your purchases in this category you think will be online vs from a physical store/in person? 3 Includes respondents who chose “some online,” “most online,” and “all online.” Respondents who indicated that they have not bought the category online and do not intend to do so in the next two weeks are classified as not purchasing online. 4 Expected growth after COVID-19 compared to pre-COVID-19 slightly lower than previous waves due to respondents reporting higher online activity in pre-COVID-19 situation. 16 15 36 26 18 40 54 51 55 16 46 50 69 26 55 23 54 56 84 75 Tobacco Personal-care products Snacks Skin care & makeup Entertainment at home +5 Consumer electronics +2Groceries +1 +4Non-food child products Accessories +4Vitamins/supplements +5 Fitness & wellness +5Jewelry Household supplies +3 +3OTC medicine Food takeout & delivery +4Apparel +3 +3 +1 +3 +1Alcohol +2 Footwear Books/magazines/newspapers +1Furnishing & appliances +3 +2 Pre-COVID-19 Expected growth after COVID-19 % growth in customers purchasing category online +22% +17% +14% +12% +10% +9% +9% +8% +8% +7% +7% +6% +6% +5% +5% +4% +3% +2% +2% 0% Flight to digital and omnichannel ~2–22% growth in consumers who purchase online for most categories4 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years
  10. 10. McKinsey & Company 10 Consumers’ use of online channel before and expected use after COVID-191,2 % of respondents purchasing most or all online3 1 Q: Before the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation started, what proportion of your purchases in this category were online vs from a physical store/in person? 2 Q: Once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided, tell us what proportion of your purchases in this category you think will be online vs from a physical store/in person? 3 Respondents who indicated that they have not bought the category online and do not intend to do so in the next two weeks are classified as not purchasing online. 4 Expected growth after COVID-19 compared to pre-COVID-19 slightly lower than previous waves due to respondents reporting higher online activity in pre-COVID-19 situation. 5 27 5 7 6 24 7 11 24 26 10 11 35 26 27 26 49 71 30 7 +0 Tobacco Groceries +4 Snacks Food takeout & delivery Jewelry +0 Household supplies +0Alcohol +5 +0 +7 +3 +3 Furnishings & appliances Personal-care products +4 +4 Skin care & makeup +4OTC medicine Vitamins/supplements +5Fitness & wellness +8 +3 Consumer electronics +4 Non-food child products +5Apparel Accessories +1 Footwear Books/magazines/newspapers +1 Entertainment at home +9 Pre-COVID-19 Expected growth after COVID-19 % growth in customers purchasing category most or all online +6% +16% +6% +7% +4% +29% +44% +34% +18% +19% +49% +12% +14% +16% +33% +16% +3% +11% +9% +43% ~3–49% growth in consumers who purchase most or all online for most categories4 …with some consumers planning to shift almost completely online Flight to digital and omnichannel Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years
  11. 11. McKinsey & Company 11 Have you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1 % of respondents 1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the COVID-19 situation started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.” 2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 16% 5% 2% 12% 9% 4% 5% 2% 3% 16% 3% 4% 17% 8% 2% 10% 6% 8% 7% 3% 5% 8% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 6% 4% 2% 4% 1% 1% Buy online for in-store pickup Grocery delivery Used a new store/restaurant app Purchased pre-owned products 1% Used deal-finding plug-ins 1% Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru In-store self-checkout Restaurant curbside pickup Purchased directly from social media Restaurant delivery Meal-kit delivery Store curbside pickup Just started using Using more Using same/less Not using Intent to continue,2 % 40% 38% 54% 47% 80% 29% 48% 36% 55% 77% 61% 65% Flight to digital and omnichannel Germans have acquired new habits during COVID-19, including restaurant delivery and curbside pickup Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years
  12. 12. McKinsey & Company 12 Intent to use after COVID-191 Percent of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 UsergrowthsinceCOVID-192 1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 2 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less). Flight to digital and omnichannel Many consumers intend to continue these habits even after the crisis is over Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years Accelerated shifts Potentially here to stay Works for now 28 0 30 70 80260 50 4 32 34 8836 40 50 100 60 Meal-kit delivery Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru Restaurant curbside pickup Deal-finding plug-ins New store/restaurant app Restaurant delivery Purchased pre-owned products online Grocery delivery Buy online for in-store pickup Purchased from social media In-store self-checkout Store curbside pickup
  13. 13. McKinsey & Company 13 Have you used any of the following since COVID-19 started1 % of respondents Half of Germans have tried a new shopping behavior and most intend to continue usage beyond the crisis 1 Q: Since the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation started (i.e., in the past ~3 months), which of the following have you done? 23% consumers selected “none of these.” 2 Q: Which best describes whether or not you plan to continue with these shopping changes once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will go back to what I did before coronavirus”; ”will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus”; ”will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.” Intent to continue includes respondents who selected “will keep doing both this and what I did before coronavirus” and “will keep doing this and NOT go back to what I did before coronavirus.” 3 “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps. 25% 23% 22% 17% 14% Private label/store brand Different retailer/store/website New digital shopping method Different brand New shopping method3 Intent to continue2 80% 75% 83% 81% 67% 56% Consumers have tried a new shopping behavior Shock to loyalty Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years
  14. 14. McKinsey & Company 14 More than 50 percent of consumers cite value and convenience as drivers for trying new places to shop Reason for shopping at a new retailer/store/website since COVID-19 has started1 % of respondents selecting reason in top three 1 Q: You mentioned you shopped from a new retailer/store/website since the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation started. What was the main reason you decided to try this new retailer/store/website? Select up to 3. 24% 21% 18% 18% 36% 30% 24% 28% 8% 4% 16% 4% 16% Less crowded / has shorter lines More easily accessible from my home Better prices/promotions Offers good delivery/pickup options Supporting local businesses Products are in stock Better shipping/delivery costs Can get all the items I need from one place Better value Better quality Offers natural/organic options The company treats its employees well Cleaner / has better hygiene measures Convenience Purpose-driven Quality/organic Health/hygiene Availability Value x% Net % of respondents per category 63% 60% 28% 12% 20% 16% Shock to loyalty Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years
  15. 15. McKinsey & Company 15 More than 50 percent of consumers who tried a new brand cite value as a driver Reason for trying a new brand since COVID-19 has started1 % of respondents selecting reason in top three 1 Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What was the main reason that drove this decision? Select up to 3. “Brand” includes different brand, new private label/store brand. Availability Value Health/hygiene Quality/organic Purpose-driven Convenience x% Net % of respondents per category 32% 65% 30% 27% 21% 8% Shock to loyalty Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years Is natural/organic Better prices/promotions 18 Better value 25 Products are in stock Larger package sizes Better shipping/delivery costs Better quality Supporting local businesses The company treats its employees well Is available where I’m shopping Cleaner / has better hygiene measures 36 31 15 9 19 30 3 21 8
  16. 16. McKinsey & Company 16 Consumers buying based on company behavior1 % of respondents 1 Q: Which best describes how often you are doing each of the following items? Possible answers: “doing less since coronavirus started”; “doing about the same since coronavirus started”; “doing more since coronavirus started.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Consumers are paying increased attention to sustainability and healthy packaging 7% 7% 7% 7% 12% 77% 78% 78% 81% 81% 16% 15% 15% 12% 8% Sustainable/eco-friendly products Healthy and hygienic packaging Retailers promotion of sustainable solutions Company’s purpose/values How companies take care of the safety of their employees 100% Doing less Doing about the same Doing more Shock to loyalty Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years
  17. 17. McKinsey & Company 17 Milestones for German population not yet engaging with out-of-home activities1 % of respondents awaiting each milestone before engaging Living under new restrictions, most Germans are not engaging in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities 1 Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart rebased to exclude those already participating in these activities and those who do not deem any of these items important. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 57 15 28 Only once there’s a vaccine or treatment Government lifts restrictions + other requirement Government lifts restrictions Medical authorities deem safe 21% Stores, restaurants, and other indoor places start taking safety measures 27% I see other people returning 9% Government lifts restrictions and… 91% of people are not currently engaging in “normal” out-of- home activities, up from 62% in the last survey Homebody economy Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years
  18. 18. McKinsey & Company 18 Consumers engaging in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities1 % of respondents Only 9 percent Germans are engaging out-of-home activities 1 Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities. Homebody economy Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years 11 27 38 9 24 36 6 30 12 18 42 May 24 Jun 21 Sep 24 Nov 9
  19. 19. McKinsey & Company 19 Most Germans are concerned about traveling by airplane as well as other activities where avoiding crowds is more difficult Consumers’ level of concern undertaking various activities1 % of respondents 1 Q: How worried would you be if you were to do the following activities in the next two weeks? Possible answers: “not worried at all”; “not very worried”; “somewhat worried”; “very worried”; “extremely worried.”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Level of concern is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they “not worried at all” and “not very worried” from “very worried” and “extremely worried.” Level of concern2 41 36 35 29 28 4 19 5 -2 -4 -5 -5 -3 -22 -45 -33 -37 -4453% 47% 53% 62% 44% 37% 35% 34% 33% 37% 38% 29% 33% 27% 20% 23% 18% 21% 18% 39% 38% 31% 21% 34% 37% 34% 35% 36% 31% 29% 37% 31% 27% 31% 26% 29% 22% 22% 9% 14% 16% 17% 22% 26% 31% 31% 31% 32% 33% 34% 37% 46% 49% 51% 53% 57% 59% Get together with family Get together with friends Visit a crowded outdoor public place Shop for groceries/necessities Go to a hair or nail salon Work outside my home Drive more than 2 hours from home Shop for non-necessities Go out for family entertainment Rent a short-term home Stay in a hotel Go to a shopping mall Dine at a restaurant or bar Used a clothing rental service Used ride-sharing service Go to the gym or fitness studio Used public transportation Attend a large event Travel by airplane WorriedSomewhat worriedNot worried Homebody economy Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years -11
  20. 20. McKinsey & Company 20 Masks and barriers continue to be a priority to consumers as they decide where to shop in-store—up 9 percentage points since May Top priorities when deciding where to shop in-store1 % of respondents for whom this criterion is the most important2 1 Q: Once restrictions lift, which of the following factors will be most important to you as you decide which of these places to visit in person? Respondents were asked to select the most important. 2 The following categories are included in each bucket: Cleaning and sanitization—increased cleaning, improved air filtration, availability of sanitizing supplies throughout the store; Health checks—customer wellness check (e.g., temperature) on entry, employees' wellness check (e.g., temperature) on entry; Masks and barriers—customers and employees wear masks, customers and employees provided masks and gloves, plastic barrier with cashier; No-contact purchasing—curbside pick-up, cashier-less checkout, no-contact delivery, buy online for pickup in store; Physical distancing—customer number limit, distancing in customer line, reduced employee activity during shopping hours; Store regulations—no customer product testing, one-way store aisles, special hours for high-risk shoppers. Homebody economy Change since the first measure, pp. +9 0 -7 +2 -4 0 39% 25% 19% 9% 6% 3%Health checks Masks and barriers Physical distancing Cleaning and sanitization Store regulations No-contact purchasing Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053; 05/21–05/24/2020, n = 1,008, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years
  21. 21. McKinsey & Company 21 Germans intend to maintain their current level of engagement with out-of-home activities for the next two weeks Consumers’ engagement with activities outside home1,2 % of respondents 1 Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past two weeks? Chart represents the percentage of respondents who indicated that they left home at least once during the past week to do this activity. 2 Q: For which of the following activities do you intend to leave your home to do in the next two weeks? Chart represents % of respondents who intend to leave their home to do this activity during the next two weeks. 91% 51% 55% 46% 31% 29% 27% 22% 10% 13% 11% 6% 4% 5% 4% Past 2 weeks Next 2 weeks Homebody economy 93% 55% 53% 49% 31% 31% 31% 24% 19% 17% 14% 9% 6% 5% 4% Get together with family Go out for family entertainment Shop for groceries/necessities Get together with friends Travel on public transportation Shop for non-necessities Attend a large event Work outside my home Go to the gym or fitness studio Visit a crowded outdoor public place Go to a hair or nail salon Dine at a restaurant or bar Drive more than 2 hours away from home Used ride-sharing service Travel by airplane Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years
  22. 22. McKinsey & Company 22 23% Feel unsafe Somewhat unsafe 46% Feel safe 31% Top activities eager to get back to2 % of respondents for whom the activity is in their top 3 choices Germans are most eager to return to indoor dining and getting together with friends and family Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany's general population 18+ years Level of comfort with out-of-home activities,1 % of respondents 1 Q: What best describes your comfort participating in activities you did prior to COVID? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: What best describes your comfort participating in activities you did prior to COVID? If answered somewhat unsafe or unsafe, Q: Which of the following activities are you most eager to get back to on a regular basis? Select up to 3. Homebody economy 27% Get together with friends 13% 50%Dine indoors at a restaurant/bar 47% 43%Get together with family Attend a concert, sporting event, movie, etc. 24%Go out for family entertainment 21%Travel by airplane Go to gym or fitness studio 17% 14% Shop for non-necessities at shopping mall/department store Go to a hair or nail salon 13%Visit a crowded outdoor public place 11%Interact with coworkers in person
  23. 23. McKinsey & Company 23 Germans have acquired at-home alternatives to out-of-home activities, such as videoconferencing and video chat 22% 3% 4% 5% 2% 4% 3% 31% 11% 3% 3% 32% 13% 26% 11% 19% 7% 3% 1% 7% 2% 24% 8% 5% 4% 21% 10% 4% 15% 11% 5% 3% 7% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% Telemedicine: physical Personal care/grooming at home 1% Online fitness Wellness app 1% Online streaming Remote learning: myself Telemedicine: mental Videoconferencing: professional Playing online games 1% 0% Social media 0% Cooked regularly for myself/my family 0% Digital exercise machine 1% Remote learning: my children TikTok 1% Video chat: personal Watching e-sports Not using Using less / the same Using more Just started usingHave you used or done any of the following since COVID-19 started1 % of respondents Intent to continue,2 % 60% 43% 36% 73% 61% 42% 51% 72% 61% 57% 53% 81% 75% 39% 47% 55% 1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the COVID-19 situation started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.” 2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “ will increase this” among new or increased users. Homebody economy Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years
  24. 24. McKinsey & Company 24 Potentially here to stay UsergrowthsinceCOVID-191 Intent to use after COVID-192 Percent of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity after COVID-19 1 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 2 User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less). Certain habits adopted during the crisis are more likely than other to remain in the medium to long term Homebody economy Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years Works for now Accelerated shifts 694639 50370 7559 77 7873 817165 0 200 36 6738 50 40 41 42 5143 100 44 150 45 7647 7948 49 53 55 706157 60 63 80 Cooked regularlyOnline streamingUsing social media Watching e-sports Digital exercise machineTikTok Personal care / grooming at home Remote learning: my children Telemedicine: physical Video chat: personal Remote learning: myself Online fitness Wellness app Telemedicine: mental Playing online games Videoconferencing: professional
  25. 25. McKinsey & Company 25 Quick-serve restaurant drive-through and self-checkout continue to grow, while remote learning and streaming has declined since April 1 Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the COVID-19 situation started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.” 2 Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) situation has subsided? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users. 3 Change since first survey is calculated by subtracting % new/increased users in April from % new/increased users in November. Have you started / increased usage since COVID-19 started1,2 % of respondents 30 11 20 13 11 20 5 9 25 29 6 12 2 2 5 14 10 7 6 Grocery delivery Online streaming Online fitness Buy online for in-store pickup Restaurant delivery Restaurant curbside pickup In-store self-checkout Quick-serve restaurant drive-thru Store curbside pickup Videoconferencing: professional Video chat: personal Remote learning: my children Remote learning: myself Telemedicine: physical Telemedicine: mental Wellness app Playing online games TikTok Watching e-sports Change since April survey3, pp.New / increased users Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053 ;4/16-4/19/2020, n = 1,002, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years -9 2 8 -2 -4 1 1 4 -2 -3 14 5 1 0 -2 1 -2 -1 2 Homebody economy
  26. 26. McKinsey & Company 26 In-person only 7% 31% Online only 62% Hybrid 1 Q: What education format is your child/children’s school primarily using today? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: Please indicate how strongly you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. Statements include: “I expect remote learning to be a key education format for formal and/or informal education for the next 3 months”: “given the uncertainty of school openings, I am planning to spend more on at-home learning tools and equipment (e.g., tutoring services, desk equipment, electronics)”; “I have cut back my work hours given my child/children’s at-home learning needs.” Rated from 1 “strongly disagree” to 6 “strongly agree.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. In-person is still the leading education format; 27 percent of remote learners’ families expect it to continue for 3 or more months Education format1 % of respondents Homebody economy Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany’s general population 18+ years 27 16 6 Expect online to continue for 3+ months Invest in at-home learning tools Reduce work hours Agree/Strongly agree Change in beliefs/behaviors for those with children in remote learning,2 % of respondents ~38% of children in some form of remote learning
  27. 27. McKinsey & Company 27 1 Q: Please indicate how strongly you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. “I have cut back my work hours given my child/children’s at-home learning needs”. Rated from 1 “strongly disagree” to 6 “strongly agree.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Germany Consumer Pulse Survey 11/09–11/16/2020, n = 1,053, sampled and weighted to match the Germany's general population 18+ years < €25K Overall €25K - €49K 7 8 6 > €50K Agree/ Strongly agree 5 Reduction in work hours for those with children in remote learning1 % of respondents Of families with children, 6 percent have cut work hours to meet at-home learning needs Homebody economy 5% of high-income families have reduced work hours
  28. 28. McKinsey & Company 28 Disclaimer McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These materials reflect general insight and best practice based on information currently available and do not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.

Editor's Notes

  • % who started using/increased usage that intend to continue

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