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McKinsey Survey: Brazilian consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

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In Brazil, most consumers are concerned about overall public health, the health and safety of their families, and their jobs. Less than a quarter of Brazilians are optimistic about the country’s economic recovery post-crisis. A majority of consumers are facing a decline in income and savings and are consequently cutting back on their spending across all categories, with the exception of at-home entertainment and household products. Most Brazilians expect the personal and financial impact of COVID-19 to last for at least four months.

These exhibits are based on survey data collected in Brazil from April 23–26, 2020. Check back for regular updates on Brazilian consumer sentiments, behaviors, income, spending, and expectations.

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McKinsey Survey: Brazilian consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis

  1. 1. McKinsey & Company 1 Three-fourths of Brazilians have consistently remained either uncertain or pessimistic about the country’s economic recovery Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191 % of respondents Unsure: The economy will be impacted for 6–12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter Pessimistic: COVID-19 will have lasting impact on the economy and show regression/fall into lengthy recession Optimistic: The economy will rebound within 2–3 months and grow just as strong as or stronger than before COVID-19 1 Q: How is your overall confidence level on economic conditions after the COVID-19 situation? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic”; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Brazil Consumer Pulse Survey 4/23–4/26/2020, n = 1,046; 4/16–4/19/2020, n = 1,019; 4/9–4/12/2020, n = 1,047; 4/2–4/5/2020, n = 1,013; 3/28–3/30/2020, n = 1,013, sampled and weighted to match Brazil's general population 18+ years Brazil 22% 19% 21% 18% 20% 53% 59% 57% 62% 57% 25% 23% 22% 21% 23% Mar 28–30 Apr 2–5 Apr 9–12 Apr 16–19 Apr 23–26
  2. 2. McKinsey & Company 2 Although the proportion has declined slightly, most Brazilians are concerned about their income and are cutting back on spending Overall sentiment in the general population in Brazil1 % of respondents 1 Q: Please indicate how strongly you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. Please select only one response for each statement; figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Measures difference in “strongly agree / agree” between current and last pulse survey. 44% 23% 18% 17% 13% 8% 37% 34% 32% 32% 33% 32% 25% 16% 19% 43% 50% 51% 53% 59% 70% 81% 5% 3% Strongly disagree / disagree Somewhat disagree / agree Strongly agree / agree My family/friends’ health has been negatively affected by coronavirus or COVID-19 I am very concerned about losing my job My ability to make financial ends meet has been negatively impacted by coronavirus or COVID-19 My ability to work has been reduced by coronavirus or COVID-19 Uncertainty about the economy is preventing me from making purchases or investments that I would otherwise make I am cutting back on my spending Given the economy and my personal finances, I have to be very careful how I spend my money Strongly agree/ agree difference since last survey2 -3 -7 0 -9 -10 -4 -8 My income has been negatively impacted by coronavirus or COVID-19 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Brazil Consumer Pulse Survey 4/23–4/26/2020, n = 1,046; 4/16–4/19/2020, n = 1,019, sampled and weighted to match Brazil's general population 18+ years 0
  3. 3. McKinsey & Company 3 Household income1,2 % of respondents Reduce slightly / reduce a lot Increase slightly / increase a lotAbout the same 2% Past 2 weeks 23% 75% Past 2 weeks Next 2 weeks 70% 28% 2% 55% 36% 9% 1 Q: How has the COVID-19 situation affected your (family’s) overall available income, spending, and savings in the past two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: How do you think your overall available income, spending, and savings may change in the next two weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. More than half of Brazilians experienced a decline in income and savings over the past two weeks Household spending1,2 % of respondents Past 2 weeks 30%32% 49% 19% Past 2 weeks Next 2 weeks 25% 45% 34% 29% 37% April 16–19 April 23–26 April 16–19 April 23–26 Household savings1,2 % of respondents Past 2 weeks 52% 19% 29% Past 2 weeks Next 2 weeks 52% 29% 19% 48% 35% 18% April 16–19 April 23–26 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Brazil Consumer Pulse Survey 4/23–4/26/2020, n = 1,046; 4/16–4/19/2020, n = 1,019, sampled and weighted to match Brazil's general population 18+ years
  4. 4. McKinsey & Company 4 Spending intent remains mostly negative, with the exception of household products, at-home entertainment, and personal care 16 40 46 44 51 58 74 86 74 78 78 19 19 15 55 76 39 15 13 28 13 18 8 5 5 8 22 28 22 9 6 Skin care & makeup Tobacco products Groceries Accessories Snacks Footwear 3 Food takeout & delivery Alcohol Quick-service restaurant Restaurant Apparel Personal-care products Jewelry Non-food child products Household supplies Furnishings & appliances Expected spending per category over the next two weeks compared to usual1 % of respondents Decrease Stay the same Increase 16 50 50 85 48 65 68 51 84 67 77 71 79 83 88 84 25 17 11 7 10 6 10 5 7 14 7 5 Entertainment at home Fitness & wellness Adventures & tours Books/magazines/newspapers Personal-care services Short-term home rentals Consumer electronics Out-of-home entertainment Pet-care services Gasoline Vehicle purchases 4 Travel by car Cruises International flights 2Hotel/resort stays 3Domestic flights 4 Net intent2 1 Q: Over the next two weeks, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending. +9 -33 -39 -81 -41 -55 -62 -41 -79 -63 -70 -57 -72 -78 -86 -81 Net intent2 +23 +3 +9 -70 -25 -33 -16 -38 -40 -66 -83 -69 -73 -70 +7 -46 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Brazil Consumer Pulse Survey 4/23–4/26/2020, n = 1,046, sampled and weighted to match Brazil's general population 18+ years
  5. 5. McKinsey & Company 5 Consumers expect to shop more online for food takeout and delivery, entertainment, snacks, child products, and groceries 1 Q: And where do you expect you’ll buy these categories? Tell us if you will shop in the following places more, about the same, or less in the next two weeks; please note, if you don’t buy in one of these places today and won’t in next two weeks, please select “N/A”; did not ask this question for categories not shown. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease shopping frequency from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase shopping frequency. Expected change in shopping channel per category over the next two weeks1 Axes show net intent,2 bubble size relative to share of respondents that have purchased category in last six months -5 -50 10 -35 -10 5-30 0 -10 0 -70 -25 -20 -15 1510 20 -20 -30 25 -40 -60 Alcohol Books/ magazines/ newspapers Household supplies (e.g., cleaning, laundry) Furnishings & appliances Apparel Entertainment at home (e.g., Netflix) Skin care & makeup Fitness & wellness Food takeout & delivery Groceries Accessories Non-food child products (e.g., diapers) Jewelry Footwear Consumer electronics Snacks Tobacco Personal-care products (e.g., soap, shampoo) Household essentials Discretionary Entertainment at home In-store Online Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Brazil Consumer Pulse Survey 4/23–4/26/2020, n = 1,046, sampled and weighted to match Brazil's general population 18+ years
  6. 6. McKinsey & Company 6 Consumers expect to spend more time on household activities, consuming video content, and watching movies or shows 16% 11% 10% 17% 17% 8% 16% 15% 27% 22% 22% 35% 40% 46% 41% 42% 50% 43% 45% 33% 41% 40% 49% 48% 44% 42% 42% 41% 40% 40% 40% 38% 38% Reading news online Video content Studying Cleaning and laundry Social media Cooking Movies or shows Texting, chatting, messaging Remote learning Live news Home improvements Decrease Stay the same IncreaseExpected change to time allocation over the next two weeks1 % of respondents 1 Q: Over the next two weeks, how much time do you expect to spend on these activities compared to how much time you normally spend on them? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease time spent from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase time spent. Net intent2 +33 +37 +34 +25 +25 +33 +24 +25 +13 +16 +16 Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Brazil Consumer Pulse Survey 4/23–4/26/2020, n = 1,046, sampled and weighted to match Brazil's general population 18+ years +39 +37 +34 +33 +30 +26 +25 +14 -1 -18 -25
  7. 7. McKinsey & Company 7 Overall public health, family safety, and the spread of the virus are top concerns for Brazilians 83% 81% 79% 79% 78% 78% 75% 66% 66% 57% 55% 54% 46% Overall public health Negative impact on my job or income Contributing to the spread of the virus The Brazilian economy Safety of myself or my family Taking care of my family Not knowing how long the situation will last Not being able to make ends meet Health of my relatives in vulnerable populations My personal health Negative impact on my business Not being able to get the supplies I need My mental health 1 Q: What concerns you most about the COVID-19 situation? Possible answers: “not a concern”; “minimally concerned”; “somewhat concerned”; “very concerned”; “extremely concerned.” Largest concerns of the Brazil population related to COVID-191 % of respondents who are very concerned or extremely concerned Very concerned / extremely concerned 83% of Brazilians are very or extremely concerned about overall public health Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Brazil Consumer Pulse Survey 4/23-4/26/2020, n = 1,046, sampled and weighted to match Brazil's general population 18+ years
  8. 8. McKinsey & Company 8 Brazilians believe that the personal and financial impact of COVID-19 will last well beyond two months 10% 35% 31%4–6 months 0–1 month 11% 13% 2–3 months 7–12 months More than one year 6% 8% 27% 35% 15% 10% 7–12 months 4–6 months No impact More than one year 0–1 month 2–3 months Adjustments to routines1 % of respondents Impact on personal/household finances2 % of respondents ~90% believe it will take 2+ months before routines can return to normal, down from 91% in the last pulse survey ~86% believe their finances will be impacted for 2+ months by the COVID-19 situation, down from 88% in the last pulse survey 1 Q: How long do you believe you need to adjust your routines, given the current COVID-19 situation, before things return back to normal in Brazil (e.g., government lifts restrictions on events/travel)? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. 2 Q: How long do you believe your personal/household finances will be impacted by the COVID-19 situation? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding. Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Brazil Consumer Pulse Survey 4/23–4/26/2020, n = 1,046; 4/16–4/19/2020, n = 1,019, sampled and weighted to match Brazil's general population 18+ years
  9. 9. McKinsey & Company 9 Disclaimer McKinsey does not provide legal, medical, or other regulated advice or guarantee results. These materials reflect general insight and best practice based on information currently available and do not contain all of the information needed to determine a future course of action. Such information has not been generated or independently verified by McKinsey and is inherently uncertain and subject to change. McKinsey has no obligation to update these materials and makes no representation or warranty and expressly disclaims any liability with respect thereto.

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