ResearchedandPublishedbyMatthewScott11/05/2017
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Why Investment in Dublin Property?
Irelandboostsone of youngestpopulationswithinEurope (Table 2), resulting in the housing supply
shortfall and target requirements becoming more strained. During its peak immigration period in
2013 52,000 Irish citizens left Ireland (upwards of 70% plus with university degree educations) to
explore new opportunities worldwide. In 2015, this figure became heavily reduced to 34,000. The
period between 2010 to 2013 saw immigration levels nearly double (30,000 to 52,000), and from
2013 to 2015 reducing year on year (50,000 to 34,000)
Further to reduced immigration levels, the attraction to both EU and the rest of the world citizens
has remainedatconstantlyhighlevelssince the early2000’s.Inthe example of the rest of the world
raising from just under 2,000 in 2010 to 25,000 by 2015, whistEU citizenshasonly very little growth
(around 2,500 to just under 10,000) in the same time period.
The graph below demonstrates the regional population growth of Ireland as reporting under the
2011 and 2016 consensus (Table 1) Outside of Kerry and Cork, Dublin represents both the largest
populous and the largest increases during both the 2011 and 2016 consensus. Across Dublin City
Centre,DublinSouthCounty,FingalandDun- Laoghaire reporting an average of 4.9% growth (range
of 4.8% to 8.1%). The Greater Dublin Area accounts for 47% of the total Irish GDP and employs
around 850,000 (40% of the total workforce). It is believed 48% of the Dublin workforce are
employedinthe ITandtechnology,financial and business services sector. Ireland’s status as 10th
In
the worldfor doingbusiness, has seen many international firms setting up offices and American IT
firmsalone will provide 14,000 newjobsoverthe next four years. New business start up’s continue
to drive the economy, with figures estimated to be 20, 000 plus new years (of which 54% are
registered in Dublin) As of 2014 63.5% where yet to employ a workforce, but many looking to
expand the business over the next five years.
Urban Living in Ireland has become more popular and supported by the facts that Dublin attracts
57% of international students and 78% of Irish citizens that hold a PHD or university standard
educations will chose to live in urban areas, rather than rural.

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Source Central Office ofStatistics
Table 1
Source Central Office ofStatistics
Table 2
Despite the obvious increased demand for housing in the urban areas, both the existing housing
stock levelsandnewresidential completions haven’t matched the demand in line with population
growth (as highlighted in Table 3) New residential completions pre- Celtic Tiger era crash (2007)
peakedat93,019 nationwide and19,470 inDublinbutlaterfallingbelow 10,000 in2012 (nationwide
8,488 and Dublin 1,588). The Government since 2014 set itself a target to build 25,000 new homes
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Regional Population Growth
Population 2011 Population 2016 Percentage Growth
Population Breakdown
0-14 15-24 25-64 65 +

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peryear up to 2020 to elevate the propertyshortfall,new completionsevenin2016 remainfar short
of thistargetbut slowlyimproving(11,000 to 14,000) as demonstratedinboth Tables 4, 4.1, 8, 9 and
10.
Table 3
Source: Property Price Register
Table 5
The shortage of housing stock, has had more effect on Dublin compared to the rest of the country.
(see Table 5) The average Dublinhouse salesprice since 2010 has remainedsignificantly higher than
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
275,000
300,000
325,000
350,000
375,000
400,000
425,000
450,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SalesTransactions
AverageSalesPrice
Year
Nationwide and Dublin Sales Prices and
Transactions
Average Dublin Sales Price Average National Sales Price
Dublin Sales Transactions National Sales Transactions

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the nationwide average sales price, Dublin sales prices during this period reached a low of 280,000
Euro and a high of 396,555 Euro (2017 figure only covers Quarter 1). Whilst nationwide prices at
their peak (245,275 Euro) falls below the Dublin lowest prices during this time period. As property
pricescontinue toclimbtheyare still well shortof the peakachievedin2006 (as exhibitedinTable 6,
6.1, 6.2 and 6.3) The Dublin Price Property Index as expected as recovered betters but still 33%
down,since 2012 whenthe trough period occurred both nationwide and Dublin prices have shown
signsof steadyimprovement.The rental indexperformance highlights the major issue faced by the
Governmentasmonthlyrentisbecomingoutof control.The size of the rental market in Ireland has
increased to the point not that over 700,000 households now renting, the age range most likely to
be renting are 18-24(74.2% renting) and 25-34 (44.3% renting). Property Ownership is most active
amongst 35-44 (59.8% ownership) and 45-54 (49% ownership). Property Owners within the 45-54
age bracket are ten times more likely to be a cash buyer than 18-24 year olds (29.6%) and 35-44
three times more likely (9.1%).
Rental Prices in Dublin are almost double that of the rest of Ireland and not showing signs of
reducing any time soon. If you review the periods of 2010 to 2016 for Dublin rents, Daft have
reportedthe average rentraise from1,076 Euro to 1,604 Euro (nationwiderental average from 2015
to 2016 increased from 971 Euro to 1,111 Euro)
Source Price Property Register
Table 6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PROPERTYPRICEINDEX
YEAR
Property Price Rental Index
National Price Property Index Dublin Price Property Index
National Rental Price Index Dublin Rental Price Index
Rental peak
Property Price Peak
Price Property Trough Period
Rental Trough period

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Source Property Price Register
Table 6.1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
Dublin Sales Property Transactions
Secondary Homes Transactions 2017 New Homes Transactions 2017
Secondary Homes Transactions 2016 New Homes Transactions 2016
Secondary Homes Transactions 2015 New Homes Transactions 2015

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Source Property Price Register
Table 6.2
0102030405060708090100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260270280290300310320330340350360370380390400410420430440450460470480490500510520530540550560570580590600610620630640650660670680690700710720730740750760770780790800810820830840
Total Sales Value Per Dublin Region (millions)
Secondary Homes Total Sales 2017 (million) New Homes Total Sales 2017 (million)
Secondary Homes Sales 2016 (million) New Homes Sales 2016 (million)
Secondary Homes Sales 2015 (million) New Homes Sales 2015 (million)

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Source Property Price Register
Table 6.3
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
400,000
420,000
440,000
460,000
480,000
500,000
520,000
540,000
560,000
580,000
600,000
620,000
640,000
660,000
680,000
700,000
720,000
740,000
760,000
780,000
800,000
820,000
840,000
860,000
880,000
900,000
920,000
940,000
960,000
980,000
1,000,000
1,020,000
1,040,000
1,060,000
1,080,000
1,100,000
1,120,000
1,140,000
1,160,000
1,180,000
1,200,000
1,220,000
1,240,000
1,260,000
1,280,000
1,300,000
1,320,000
1,340,000
1,360,000
1,380,000
1,400,000
1,420,000
AverageSalesPrice(Thousands)
Region
Dublin AverageSales Price(Thousands)
Average secondary Homes Sales Price 2017 (thousands)
Average new home sales prices 2017 (thousands)
Average secondary homes sales price 2016 (thousands)
Average new homes sales price 2016 (thousands)
Average secondary sales price 2015 (thousands)
Average new homes sales price 2015 (thousands)

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Source Property Price Register
Table 7
The secondaryhousingmarkethasfor a longtime accounted for most of residential property sales,
due to the level of newbuildsremainingbelow the requiredlevel.New homessalesactivityisDublin
far outweighsthatof the restof the countrywithover50% of new residentialunitsbuiltthere.Table
7 above depicts a breakdown of new home sales activity across all the regions of Dublin. The most
popular regions for new home sales are County Dublin, North County Dublin, Dublin 15, Dublin 18
and Dublin 9 since 2015 to quarter 1 2017. The ConstructionInformation Services reported that the
Dublin since 2014 had shown improved construction activity across total value submitted for
planning (600 million to 1. 7 billion Euro), planning granted (600 million to 1.3 billion Euro) and
onsite projects (400 million to 1.2 billion Euro) (see table 8).
Irishpropertydevelopershave favouredbuilding houses compared to apartments and this remains
the case today, during the peak in 2006 73,073 houses were built compared to 19,946 apartments
and since the crash apartments reached a low of 922 with houses 7,379 (2013). As Table 10 shows
withplanningpermissiongrantedsince 2015, the housesandapartmentdivide will remainheavilyin
favour of houses for the next few years to come (see Table 12) Nama was projected to have 2.8
millionof hectaresof land inreceivershipacross22 counties,60% of thislocatedinthe Grater Dublin
Area(Dublin, Kildare, Meath and Wicklow) providing additional land for up to 80,000- 100,000 new
homes and apartments.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
Dublin1
Dublin2
Dublin3
Dublin4
Dublin5
Dublin6
Dublin7
Dublin8
Dublin9
Dublin10
Dublin11
Dublin12
Dublin13
Dublin14
Dublin15
Dublin16
Dublin17
Dublin18
Dublin20
Dublin22
Dublin24
CountyDublin
NorthCountyDublin
New sales activity 2015 onwards
Total New Home Sales Since 2015 Total transactions since 2015
Total New Home Sales Since 2015 Total sales since 2015 (millions)

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Source Construction Information Services Ireland
Table 8
Source Construction Information Services Ireland
Table 4
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Nationwide Total Value on Site (Billions)
Nationwide Total Value Planning Granted…
Nationwide Total Value Plan Submitted (Billions)
Dublin Total Value on Site (Billions)
Dublin Total Value Planning Granted (Billions)
Dublin Total Value Plans Submitted (Billions)
National and Dublin New Residential Constructions
Stats 2014-2016
2016 2015 2014
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Nationwide New Residential Completions

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Source Department ofPlanning and Housing
Table 4.1
Source Construction Information Services Ireland
Table 9
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
New Residential Completions
Nationwide New Completions Dublin New Completions
National New Residential CompletionTarget
Dublin Required Levels of New Residential Completions
7593
5369
2603
533
147 New Residential Units Planning
Granted 2016 Number of
residential units
Dublin Leinster Munster Connaught Ulster
Dublin Property Requirement Shortfall

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Source Construction Information Services Ireland
Table 10
Source Daft
Table 11
The major crisisthat hasled to increasing rental and sales prices is the limited number of available
stock,in the instance of salesandrental propertieslistedasavailable on daft.ie this has reduced for
both. In 2009, despite new residential construction builds still below the required level there was
60,000 listednationwide (around30,000 of those were locatedinDublin) In 2015 the available sales
stock reacheda nine yearlowtojust 25,000 nationwideandaround12,000 inDublin. Since 2016 the
numberof available salespropertieshasbecome closer to 30,000 as more new residential units are
becomingavailabletothe market(see table 11) By lookingcloselyat the number of new residential
unitson site andplanningagreed especially in Dublin, this number should be become healthier for
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Nationwide Planning Granted 2016 by Dwelling
Type
Houses Apartments
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2009 2014 2015 2016 2017
Nationwide available sales listings

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potential investors home and abroad. We are now faced with issue of only having 26 sales
properties available per 1000 people in Dublin.
Table 13 very much like the available sales properties looks at the reducing number of rental
properties available, over the last 10 years in Dublin from 4,300 to 3,252 resulting in existing
landlords increasing their rental prices.
Source Central Office ofStatistics
Table 12
Sources Daft
Table 13
Housing Stock Breakdown 2015 Percentage
Proportion (%)
Detached Homes Sem Detached Homes Terraced Homes
Apartments Not Stated
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2014 2015 2016 2017
Nationwide Availale Rental Properties 2015 to
2017 available

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Sources Central Bank ofIreland
Table 14
Source Central Bank ofIreland
Table 15
Sources Central Bank ofIreland
Table 16
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Aug-10
Dec-10
Apr-11
Aug-11
Dec-11
Apr-12
Aug-12
Dec-12
Apr-13
Aug-13
Dec-13
Apr-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Apr-15
Aug-15
Dec-15
Apr-16
Aug-16
Dec-16
AverageMonthly MortgageRate AverageMonthly Rate %
0
10000
20000
30000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Cash Based v MortgageBased Property Transactions
Cash based v mortgage based property transactions Cash Based
Cash based v mortgage based property transactions Mortgaged Based
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total MortgageApplication Value
Mortgage Application Total Value Drawdowns (millions)
Mortgage Application Total Value Investment (millions)
Mortgage Application Total Value Movers (millions)
Mortgage Application Total Value FTB (millions)

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Source Central Bank ofIreland
Table 17
Since 2010 the number of cash based transactions almost quadrupled (4,406 to 16,345 cash based
sales transactions), and from 2014 to 2016 performed very similarly to the number of mortgage
basedtransactions(see Table 15) FirstTime Buyersdespite the lackof new residential unitsentering
the market, have displayed a consistent level of new applications ranging from 1.8 to 2.3 billion
Euro. Due to the competitive monthly interest rates (see Table 14) mortgage repayments both
nationwide and in Dublin have been stable since the trough period experienced in 2011 (579 Euro
nationwide and720 Euro in Dublin). The monthly mortgage repayments in Dublin have reduced by
100 Euro (1,191 to 1,092 Euro) between 2014 and 2016, with nationwide mortgages going from 959
to 921 Euro (see Table 18)
Recentrental increaseshave seenmore FirstTime Buyersenterthe market,asinmostcases itworks
out cheapertopay a monthlymortgage thanto continue renting.Ireland’saveragewage nationwide
is 28,500 Euro whilst Dublin’s average is 35,600 Euro, with the top 25% earners receiving 40,000 to
70,000 Euro. The higherwage average forDublinprovidesabetteropportunitytopurchase property
and gainapproval formore expensiveproperties,comparedtothe nationwide.Presently mortgages
can be approved for three and half times your income, but the central bank are reviewing the
options to increase this to four times in the near future. Further to this the Government have
recentlylaunchedascheme wherebyFirstTime Buyerscanclaimbacktax paidon theirdeposits,the
scheme covers properties up to a maximum 500,000. Euro, 50,000 Euro Deposit and 20,000 Euro tax
claim back. Recent regulation changes for mortgages have favoured First Time Buyers by reducing
the depositrequiredbyhalf (20%to10%) to reduce the pressure uponthe rental market. In the past
propertypriceswere overvaluedleadingtomortgage holdersince 2007 losing 17.6 billion Euro, 43%
of mortgagessince 2011-2013 enterednegativeequityresultingin an average loss of 66,3000 Euros.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Breakdown of the MortgageApplication Type Approvals Chart
Mortgage Types FTB Approvals Mortgage Types Movers Approvals
Mortgage Types Investment Approvals Mortgage Types Drawdowns

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Source ESB Building Society
Table 18
Please feelfree tocontactme on the following:
Mobile:0860288318
Email:businessaim1@googlemail.com
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MonthlyRepayments
Year
Nationwide and Dublin FTB's MortgageMonthly Repayments
National Dublin

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