Ireland's Property Performance 2015- 2016

1. Irish real estate performance
2015-2016

2. Irish real estate performance 2015-2016
Ireland in 2015 saw both signs of improvements, but also the repeat of previous bad habit. Supply continues to
be the major talking point as supply is well below the desired numbers required, since 2013 a target of 25,000
new residential developments per year has been set. New development output has been well short each year
with only 8,300 completions in 2014 and 11,000 in 2015. The number of complaints logged against real estate
agencies increased from 198 in 2014 to 283 in 2015 (with only two cases having imposed fines of 16,000 Euros).
At less than 24,000, the total number of properties for sale is at its lowest point since February 2007. 48,105 sale
transactions were completed, worth a total value of 10.62 Billion Euros, making the average sale price across
Ireland 220,960 Euros. Secondary
Homes dominated the market with
42,221 transactions compared to only
6, 171 new homes and apartments.
Real estate agents would have made
a combined total of 159 million Euros
in commission (at an average of 1.5%
per transaction). Dublin and Cork
combined to make 6.3 Billion of the
overall 10.62 Billion Euros generated
(20,637 of the 48,105 transactions)
with West Meath, Monaghan, Carlow
and Offaly the least profitable areas.
Since 2006 completions have gone
from a peak of 93,419 down to
11,000 in 2015 (but up from 7,700
in 2014). The number of available
properties has reduced in each
province from 2014 to 2015, Leinster
7,600 to 6,500, Munster 12,500
to 10,000 and Connaught/Ulster
10,000 to 8,000. Presently there is
over 184,000 ghost estates currently
outside of the market, either that
haven’t been built yet or waiting planning permission (only 35,000 in urban areas). 1,400 new homes will need to
built per month to meet the required demand level. House completions in Ireland has always represented over
75% of total new residential development since 2006, with a peak of 90% in 2013 (7,379) and a low of 75%
in 2007 (58,936).
Since 2010 9,000 units have been brought in bulk by inventors rather than families, adding to strain of the
housing shortage Ireland continues to Experience. These 9,000 units over just 300 deals. The Government since
2010 has also launched two initiatives to deal with the housing shortage construction 2020 and the social
housing strategy 2014-2016. 7,500 units were brought in Dublin, Cork and Galway worth 1.9 billion Euros, other
areas of large investment were Cavan, Limerick, Kildare, Wicklow and Louth. In 2014, 2,400 units were sold for
666 Million Euros, but mostly unfinished. Dublin equated to 1.6 Billion Euros of total investment, as areas such
as Mayo, Leitrim and Longford have no transactions of more than 10 units, 2015 posted numbers of 140 million
Euros of investment across 777 units.
Ireland remains opposite to the rest of Europe, in terms of having more people in dwelling in detached or semi-
detached houses compared to apartment/flats. The EU 28 saw an average of 25.6% living in semi-detached,
33.7% detached, and 41% flats. The highest year of construction for housing was 2006 with 73,073, 2014 levels
were down to 8,766. On the other hand, Apartments have never achieved over 25% of total construction output
from 2004 to 2014. With completions reducing year on year from 2006 to 2013 (19,946 to 922), with 2014 (2,250)
and 2015 (1,800). Quarter 4 2015 saw total completions at 1,800 down from 2,700 in Quarter 4 2014 (Planning
permission is down 12% on the year 2014 to 2015 down almost 300 units).
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Total Sales Billion (Euros)
Units Sold
Tipperary
Mayo
Longford
Leitrim
Carlow
Sligo
Meath
Monaghan
Roscommon
Offaly
West Meath
Wexford
Waterford
Kilkenny
Donegal
Kerry
Clare
Laois
Louth
Wicklow
Kildare
Limerick
Cavan
Galway
Cork
Dublin Bulk Property Sales
Secondary Homes dominated the market with
42,221 transactions
As of Quarter 4 2015
Over 27,000 new residential
developments are either in the planning
or building stage over 330 projects
across the whole of Ireland.
58.3%
5%
Ireland
Detached Houses Apartment/Flat
Apartment/Flat
figures in %
0
20
40
60
80
IrelandSpainHungaryEU average
42
6

3. Nama in 2016 reportedly has 2,806 hectares of land in receivership, across 22 counties, 60% of the land in
receivership is located in Dublin, Kildare, Meath and Wicklow. The Land provides enough space for an additional
80,000 new homes.
Unfortunately, there is a substantial barrier to building on the land though, this being inferior infrastructure in
sewage, transport and roads and schools. Despite planning permission being up 70% on last year
(13,000 in 2015), the housing shortage is no nearer to being resolved. Presently, there are 6,658 accepting
planning permissions for Estate building units (up 89%), 3,592 one off developments (up 16%) and 2,794
apartments (up 256%). The residential density guidelines from the department of the environment suggest a
minimum of 30 to 50 new homes/apartments per Hectare in an urban area. Under these guidelines, major cities
could build anywhere from 84,000 to 140,000 new homes to ease the housing storage. Leitrim, Clare, Monaghan,
Roscommon, Sligo and Donegal
combined represented less than six
hectares. Longford, Cavan, Kerry and
Tipperary had no land in receivership.
But in contrast to the reduced
completions, transactions were
up quarter on quarter in 2015 with
over 12,000 in Quarter 4 2015 alone.
Registrations are down from 1,157 to
859 from Quarter 3 to Quarter 4, down
42% on the quarter and up 4% for
the year. Dublin accounted for 3,500
transactions in Quarter 4 2015, followed
by the Mideast 270 and Southwest 200,
the Midlands were below 100, Midwest around 100 and West just over 100. The Number of completions in 2015
Quarter 1 to Quarter 3 saw Fingal (840), Cork (790) and Dublin (480) as the areas with the most activity, Carlow
(140), Cavan (180) and Westmeath (140) amongst the lowest recorded levels. The only cities that didn’t see
housing completions increase quarter on quarter were Donegal, Fingal, and Dublin. Construction output since
2011 has improved from 9.48 billion Euros to 12.55 Billion Euros. Leinster, Connaught and Ulster all saw their
output activity up from 27% to 40%, with only Munster declining by 5% (down 1.88 billion Euros) Urban living in
Ireland now accounts for Over 50% of dwellers, increased year on year since the 1980’s, but still below the EU28
average of 75%. Leinster has accounted for over two thirds of the population growth in Ireland
since the 1960’s.
Dublin has 165 of the total 337 (48.96%) residential construction projects in the planning or building stage
from December 2015 to February 2016, with most of the new projects costing up to 10 million Euros (the most
expensive residential development being worth 2.5 billion Euros. Dublin’s overall construction output of
4.3 billion Euros, more than all the other provinces combined with Munster 500.21 Million Euros, Connaught
87.10 Million Euros and Ulster 23.358 Million Euros (Leinster spent 665.62 million Euros not including Dublin)
Cork had the second highest activity with 46 planned new residential developments and Meath (26).
The least active cities in Leinster were Longford (0) , County Offaly (1) and West Meath (2) Munster, very similar
to Leinster has a majority of their new residential developments in their most populated city (Cork 46 projects)
accounting for 63% of total province construction activity, followed by Limerick with 10 and Clare (7). Kerry (4),
Waterford and Tipperary (both 3) had the lowest construction outputs. Connaught’s most active city was Galway
with 14 projects (51% of total province construction activity), matching the construction output of the other cities
combined. Both Leitrim and Sligo have 0 new residential developments in the planning or building stage.
Ireland is the only EU 28 country with almost double digit projected construction output growth from 2014 to 2018
(9% to 10.10%), with only Poland close to their performance +4.90% to +7.50%. Germany, France and the UK show
smaller growth year on year (-2.80% to +5.29%) The advantage to building in Ireland is cheaper costs per
SQ M ranging from 1,250 to 1,750 Euros SQ M compared to the rest of EU 28 1,150 to 3,000 Euros per SQ M. Ireland’s
most expensive build is high rise apartments (1,750 Euros per SQ M) and the cheapest townhouses (1,250 Euros per
SQ M) similar to Germany and the Netherlands. Ireland like the UK since 2014, have some of the smallest houses
in Europe, with only the UK (76 SQ M) and Finland (87.1 SQ M) below them. In Comparison Denmark (137 SQ M),
Greece (126.4 SQ M) and Netherlands
(115.5 SQ M) lead the way. Ireland are
amongst the most rooms per house (5.2)
with Belgium the highest at 5.8, Due to
the number of rooms Ireland boosts the
second smallest rooms (16.8 SQ M) with
only the UK smaller (15.8 SQ M) Both
Denmark
(39.1 SQ M with 3.5 rooms) and Greece
(39.5 SQ M and 3.2 rooms) are the largest.
Ireland boasts the youngest population
in Europe with 53% aged from 25-64, and
only 12% 65 plus. Also less Irish citizens
are now leaving the country with the peak year being 2013 (52,000) and current numbers around 34,000 now, on
top of this around 40,000 to 70,000 previously immigrated Irish are due to return by 2020. Ireland continues to
attract lots of EU (9,000 in 2015) and rest or world citizens (25,000 in 2015) commanding an average wage of 23 to
45,000 Euros.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Hectares
LimerickKildareWicklowCorkDublin
Counties
0
30
60
90
120
150
Houses in
SQ metres
NetherlandsGreeceDenmarkFinlandIrelandUK
0
20000
40000
60000
80000 Apartment
House
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Years
Annual Housing Completions by Type
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Dublin
Wicklow
Wexford
Westmeath
Waterford
Kerry
Galway
Fingal
Donegal
Cork
Cavan
Carlow
Q1 Q2 Q3
House Completions Q1- Q3 2015

4. The Irish rank 9th in the EU 28 for average monthly rent (2,129 Euros), well above the EU 28 average of 1,469
Euros. The average yearly wage currently stands at 35,600 Euros across 1.9 million working people, but in reality
over 50% make less than 28,500 and only 35,000 people in the top 1% of 200,000 Euros plus. Dublin employs over
40% of the total countries workforce and makes up
most the top 25% earning around 40 - 70,000 Euros.
Dublin in 11th and Cork 30th both appearing in the
top 50 most expensive cities in Europe. The average
income per area surprising doesn’t see Dublin in first
place, but fourth instead (230,000 Euros per person),
with the South-East (259,000 Euros), Mid-West and
Midlands (around 239,000 Euros) completing the
top three. The least prosperous areas are the West
(186,000 Euros), the Border (190,000 Euros) and
the Mid-East (210,000 Euros). Dublin accounts for
28.3% of the total income earnt, with the South
West and South East at 15% and 13% (the Midlands
only contributes 6%). Irish people spend the second
highest amount of their wages on their rent with 34%
and also have the second highest rent average 679
Euros (The EU 28 average is between 25-28%).
Mortgage draw-downs are up 6.4% for the quarter
and 4% for the year, whilst first time buyers were up
4% and down 5.4% on the year with an average of
171,500 Euros (up 2.6%). Total draw-downs were up
from 1,005,000 Million Euros to 1,284,000 Million Euros. In 2006 mortgages peaked at 114,600 and a total value
of 32 billion Euros. The Central Bank is looking to lend closer to the 8 billion Euro mark by the end of 2016, and
presently only near the 4 billion mark (4.7 billion and 26,756 transactions) 29% increase on 2014 and a projected
11% growth in 2016. Ireland is now performing well above its low of 2011 with only 12,900 applications similar
to 1970’s numbers. Ireland from Quarter 1 2014 to Quarter 1 2015 were the worst performing EU 28 country
with -13% available credit, only beaten by the Ukraine -32%, the best EU 28 performers being Sweden (+4%),
Estonia (+3%), Norway (+3%) and Malta (+2%). Cash buyers have a strong representation of all transactions with
46% in 2015, with 8,103 out of 12,065 completed in quarter 4 2015. Housing loan approvals are down from 6,799
in Quarter 2 to 6,131 in Quarter 4 20% reduction on the year, re-mortgages are up 19% on the quarter and 53% on
the year (797 to 993).
House prices in Dublin have rose by 2.7% in 2015 compared to
2014, with the rest of the country around 13.1%. The average
house sale in Dublin is down 0.4% and outside of Dublin up 7.6%.
The rental market continues to dominate as the new mortgage
laws have seen less people in a position to afford the deposits.
Rents in Dublin are up from 1,368 per month Quarter 2 to 1,435
in Quarter 4 up 8% for the year, with the rest of Ireland up from
694 Euros per month to 727 Euros per month up 10% for the
year. With the new landlord regulations restricting an increase
less an every 2 years enforceable from January 2016, rents will
continue to increase over the next 6 to 12 months. Landlords will be fined if they use the intent to sell letter to
find tenants that will bring in higher rent without the original intent to sell. The most expensive houses remain
in Dublin (380,507), followed by Wicklow (309,263) and Kildare (254,976) with Longford (85,821), Roscommon
(89,886) and Leitrim (95,801) amongst the cheapest. The Residential Tenancies Board (RTB) has seen complaints
over unfair rent hikes increase by almost 70pc in the space of one year as tenants struggle to meet the demands
of international rental agencies and private landlords. In 2014, the RTB dealt with 185 disputes over rent being
higher than the market rate. This jumped to 313 cases last year and already 66 disputes have been lodged in the
first three month of this year. Most disputes centre on rent deposits and rent arrears - last year they accounted for
more than 1,200 cases. There was 320 “unlawful termination of tenancy” or illegal eviction cases last year, which
is a 40pc increase on the number of disputes registered in 2014.
The Irish Banking Federation reported first time buyers borrowed 1.685 million Euros over 10,000 transactions
Quarter 1 to Quarter 3 2015, compared to 1.877 million Euros over 11,476 transactions over the whole of 2014.
First time buyers were purchasing houses valued around 220,000 Euros first 2 Quarters, by the end of
Quarter 3 this increased to 250,000 to 280,000 Euros. First time buyers have increased to an average age of 33,
compared to 29 in 2005. Daft.ie reported Dublin 10 and Dublin 8 (5.8% to 24.5%), with Dublin 6 the biggest loser
(-4.38% to -5.7%). Outside of Dublin, Cavan, Clare and Cork (15.7% to 26.1%).
Repossessions in 2015 were over 1000 by Quarter 3 2015, around 60 per week up 200% on 2014 with only 313
over the whole of 2014. Cork had the most repossessions with 123, Dublin 116, Wexford 68, Sligo only had 7.
Banks have over 7,000 outstanding mortgage repossessions going through the courts according to the Irish
Mortgage Holders Association with Dublin the most outstanding with 1,673, Cork 627, Meath 607, whilst Longford
100, Carlow 116, and Leitrim 75 the least active courts. Ireland currently has over 38,000 homes with rents over
due by 720 days or above, 18,000 from 361 to 720 days and 12,000 from 181 to 360 days.
Mortgage Holders have lost nearly 17.6 Billion Euros of wealth since 2007, with 43% of Mortgage holders from
2011 - 2013 expressing negative equity (50% from the period of 2011 - 2013) an average loss per mortgage is
around 66,300 Euros, with rural areas hit the worst. Ireland in 2015 had the highest ratio of mortgage debt across
the Eurozone 73% compared to an average of 37% (Holland was second with 52%) The Insolvency Service of
Ireland has wrote off 72 Million Euros worth of Mortgage debt over 641 personal cases, with 4 billion Euros of
arrears outstanding across family homes and investments.
2.7%
13.1%
Dublin
Rest of Ireland
Midlands
West
Mid-West
Border
Mid-East
South-East
South-West
Dublin
Overall Ireland Wealth Percentage
30th
11th
€
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Spend (Billion Euros)
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Ireland
Portugal
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
Austria
Sweden
Belgium
Poland
Norway
Switzerland
Netherlands
Spain
Italy
UK
France
Germany European construction output

5. Company Profile
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Property Partners
To book a demonstration for Acquaint either online or by meeting, please don’t hesitate to contact me
by email matthew@4pm.ie
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