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Bloomberg Satellite and Climate Convening

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Bloomberg Satellite and Climate Convening

  1. 1. How satellite imagery can shine a spotlight on uneconomic coal Bloomberg Philanthropies Satelitte and Climate Convening New York, August 22, 2019
  2. 2. Outline 1. What we did 2. Why we did it 3. Our perspective 04/01/19 | 2
  3. 3. What we did Working hypothesis: There is correlation between the plume size and utilisation rate after accounting for environmental conditions and plant technology types. 04/01/19 | 3
  4. 4. 04/01/19 | 4
  5. 5. What we did (results) Europe United States Carbon Tracker (2018). Nowhere to Hide. Carbon Tracker (2018). Nowhere to Hide. 04/01/19 | 5
  6. 6. Why we did it (global coverage of economics at asset-level) 04/01/19 | 6 2016 Today Global coverage at asset-level I need global coverage at asset-level to be taken seriously. I don’t have the data to do this globally. In 2016, I decided to model the operating economics of every coal plant in the world to: 1. Provide an “investment-grade” dataset for mainstream investors. 2. Help campaigners with their project and thematic interventions. 3. Accelerate energy transition in Asia.
  7. 7. Why we did it (global coverage of project economics) 04/01/19 | 7 Source: Powering Down Coal, Carbon Tracker (2018)
  8. 8. Today 2020 2021 2023 2024 2025 2027 2028 2030 8 India US Australia EU27 Czech Republic China Turkey Ukraine Japan Korea Indonesia South Africa Philippines Vietnam 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Gigawattsofcoal(GW) Outcompeted Coal GW Source: Powering Down Coal, Carbon Tracker (2018) Why we did it (global coverage of relative economics)
  9. 9. Why we did it (modelling example) Asset-level data is vital for influencing investors and asset-level data is impossible without the utilisation rate Schematic of variables to calculate viability of coal plant Carbon Tracker (2019) 9 Revenues Fuel + Carbon Variable O&M Fixed O&M Viability Calculating key variables require utilisation rate data
  10. 10. Why we did it (Asian examples on why utilisation data is urgently needed) Southeast Asia: Indonesia consumers lose from take-or-pay contracts for new coal; Philippines investors at risk from carve out clause for new coal; and Vietnam overcapacity as a reason to scale back newbuild. China: renewed focus on overcapacity; pushing for accelerated retirements of coal plants in the 14th FYP India: economic waste from low utilization and excess capacity South Africa: revealing reasons for blackouts and massive economic waste to push for closure 04/01/19 | 10
  11. 11. Our perspective (understanding information grades) Client Earth collaboration How information grades interact Carbon Tracker (2018) 04/01/19 | 11 Campaign proposal CE approaches CTI about proposed coal plant in Poland Investment- grade CTI publishes burning more money than coal Regulatory- grade CE buys shares in Enea, sues Enea and wins
  12. 12. Our perspective (disruption theory for maximising impact) Two strategies with limited resources: 04/01/19 | 12 1. Superior sensors and less data or 2. Inferior sensors and more data Disruption theory suggests this strategy will win
  13. 13. Our perspective (optimise for outcomes) Sensors are becoming ubiquitous and are changing information flows in ways previously unimaginable. This trend will change boundaries of governance and disclosure. To maximise impact (and avoid over-engineering) we need to optimise for outcomes. 04/01/19 | 13 Impact outcome: Theory of change for carbon emissions is a profound challenge (i.e. data transparency ≠ emission reductions). Technical outcome: To avoid over-engineering, we need a meta machine learning model to identify relevant coefficients for the desired outcome.
  14. 14. Carbon Tracker is a non-profit company set up to produce new thinking on climate risk. The organisation is funded by a range of European and American foundations. Carbon Tracker is not an investment adviser, and makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in any particular company or investment fund or other vehicle. A decision to invest in any such investment fund or other entity should not be made in reliance on any of the statements set forth in this publication. While the organisations have obtained information believed to be reliable, they shall not be liable for any claims or losses of any nature in connection with information contained in this document, including but not limited to, lost profits or punitive or consequential damages. The information used to compile this report has been collected from a number of sources in the public domain and from Carbon Tracker licensors. Some of its content may be proprietary and belong to Carbon Tracker or its licensors. The information contained in this research report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities within any jurisdiction. The information is not intended as financial advice. This research report provides general information only. The information and opinions constitute a judgment as at the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. The information may therefore not be accurate or current. The information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Carbon Tracker as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness and Carbon Tracker does also not warrant that the information is up-to-date.’ Disclaimer
  15. 15. Thanks for listening For more information please visit: www.carbontracker.org @CarbonBubble If you are interested in knowing more, please get in touch:

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