Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Flood by design: challenges with governance of disaster risk in Liguria, Italy

615 views

Published on

This presentation discusses the impact of bureaucracy and governance on the current and future disaster scenarios and the possible enhanced action that could be provided by “smart cities” when used as force multiplier.

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Flood by design: challenges with governance of disaster risk in Liguria, Italy

  1. 1. FLOOD BY DESIGN: CHALLENGES WITH GOVERNANCE OF DISASTER RISK IN LIGURIA, ITALY Massimo Lanfranco @EC-JRC TIEMS International Italy Conference, Rome 2015 Session 10 New approaches and methods for Emergency Management
  2. 2. Disaster risk reduction governance framework Science The physical environment Agenda Smart cities The science- policy interface
  3. 3. Physical environment LIGURIA
  4. 4. LIGURIA http://geoportale.regione.liguria.it/ 30 km
  5. 5. LIGURIA 09 October 2014 H 22:30H 17:30
  6. 6. Climate change DOES IT MATTERS? NOT FOR FLOODS! Temperature
  7. 7. Sea temperature IT MATTERS! Climate change
  8. 8. A new problem?
  9. 9. Annual rain Annual rain – average 1961-2010 (50 years) From Atlante Climatico della Liguria – ARPAL (2013) Climate change
  10. 10. Rain change Annual rain change 1981-2010 (last 30 years) compared to 1961-1990 (first 30 years) From Atlante Climatico della Liguria – ARPAL (2013) Climate change
  11. 11. Rain change Spring Summer Winter 1981-2010 1961-1990 Autumn From Atlante Climatico della Liguria– ARPAL (2013)
  12. 12. Daily rain Recent floods
  13. 13. Montly disasters occurence From ARPAL (2013)
  14. 14. Varazze event 04/10/2010 • 24 hrs rain rate: 324 mm (but as much as 700 mm was reported by citizens) • 3 hrs rain rate: 290 mm • 1hr rain rate: 180 mm • => Return time estimated over 200 yr But in Liguria is it statistically significant? Rainfall data from “La Ramognina”
  15. 15. Varazze worst historical floods 1593 - 1915
  16. 16. Sea level riseClimate change 1 m
  17. 17. Wild fires
  18. 18. Urban sprawl 1700 2010 Varazze
  19. 19. Genova 1780 2010 Urban sprawl
  20. 20. THINGS WE KNOW Ligurian catchment are mainly very small (1 – 10 km2) Very high rainfall: cloudburst up to 180mm/hr Concentration time shorter than 1 hour 24 hr rain is not consistent Autumn is dangerous, but ...
  21. 21. THINGS WE THINK WE KNOW Climate is changing Probabilistic rain forecast may work Sea level rise will be moderate (<0.5 m) Wildfires could cause/increase debris flood Urban sprawl is ended years ago
  22. 22. Legislation #1 Basin Plan
  23. 23. Civil Protection PlanLegislation #2
  24. 24. Urban PlanLegislation #3 In 50-years flood NO new buildings In 200-years flood YES new buildings in LOWER risk areas BUT the Italian law permits a 20% increase in volume when retrofit a civil building From www.greenreport.it/ AULLA - 2011 flood From http://parliamodivarazze.blog.tiscali.it/ Varazze
  25. 25. GOVERNANCE
  26. 26. CORRUPTION
  27. 27. DRR ACTIONS From Walter J. Amman – GRF Davos PLANNING CIVIL WORKS COMMUNICATION & INFORMATION
  28. 28. SMART CITIES
  29. 29. http://dublindashboard.ie/pages/DublinEnvironment
  30. 30. Where is smart Emergency Management? Frost & Sullivan http://ww2.frost.com/
  31. 31. But ...
  32. 32. Science to policy The worrying impact of climate change isn’t what we know, but what we don’t
  33. 33. Total failure of scientific advisors to engage politicians Science to policy
  34. 34. WHO HAVE TO PASS THE MESSAGE? Science to policy
  35. 35. “I can write it down: in Liguria more floods” Science to policy
  36. 36. Suggested readings Ravetz, J. R. (1986). Usable knowledge, usable ignorance: incomplete science with policy implications. In Clark, W. C., and R. C. Munn, eds. Sustainable development of the biosphere, p. 415–432. New York: Cambridge University Press. Funtowicz, S.O. and J.R. Ravetz (1990). Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy. Kluwer Academic Publishers, the Netherlands. Saltelli A. and Giampietro M. (2015) The fallacy of evidence based policy. FUTURES, 2015 special issue.
  37. 37. Thank you! Contact: Massimo Lanfranco European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC) Global Security and Crisis Management Unit Via Enrico Fermi 2749 21027 Ispra VA, Italy massimo.lanfranco@jrc.ec.europa.eu

×