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NoEstimates @ miniIAD

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NoEstimates @ miniIAD

  1. 1. #noestimates why going against the tide cannot bring you anything good! info@massimoiacolare.it @iacoware Massimo Iacolare linkedin
  2. 2. Massimo Iacolare co-founder of the awesome freelance .net and js expert love shipping features love making users happy quality addicted
  3. 3. Estimating sucks!
  4. 4. Estimating sucks! End of story
  5. 5. Estimating sucks! End of story Questions?
  6. 6. #noestimates ‣Woody Zuill started the hashtag on twitter ‣nothing new, just a new (bigger) wave ‣lot of buzz, lately If you found estimates bring no value what would you do?
  7. 7. nitpicker corner
  8. 8. nitpicker corner #noestimates it’s an invitation, a challenge
  9. 9. nitpicker corner #noestimates it’s an invitation, a challenge …it doesn’t literally mean never use estimates! The trouble with #noestimates
  10. 10. Why so interested?
  11. 11. Software development …and why estimating (really) sucks! Part 1
  12. 12. no best practices social interactions learning activity integration
  13. 13. non deterministic no best practices social interactions learning activity integration
  14. 14. Cynefin framework
  15. 15. Cynefin framework
  16. 16. Cynefin framework Predictable
  17. 17. Cynefin framework Emergent Predictable
  18. 18. ok, understood! lets get back to estimates
  19. 19. Unreliable: adj
  20. 20. Unreliable: adj not able to be relied upon, untrustwhorty
  21. 21. Asked at the beginning of a project
  22. 22. Asked at the beginning of a project Someone said cone of uncertainty?
  23. 23. Asked at the beginning of a project Someone said cone of uncertainty? projectknowledge time cone of uncertainty
  24. 24. Cost of a feature =
  25. 25. Cost of a feature = Essential complexity +
  26. 26. Cost of a feature = Essential complexity Accidental complexity+ from “No silver bullet” Fred Brooks, 1995
  27. 27. How much time do you need to add “XYZ”?
  28. 28. How much time do you need to add “XYZ”?
  29. 29. Cognitive biases
  30. 30. Cognitive biases Optimism bias
  31. 31. Cognitive biases Optimism bias Anchoring bias
  32. 32. Cognitive biases Optimism bias Anchoring bias Loss aversion
  33. 33. Cognitive biases Optimism bias Anchoring bias Availability bias Selective perception Loss aversion List of cognitive biases
  34. 34. My point is… if you’re rigorous and determined you can make them work… well “kind of”
  35. 35. My point is… if you’re rigorous and determined you can make them work… well “kind of” Worth the effort?
  36. 36. My point is… if you’re rigorous and determined you can make them work… well “kind of” Worth the effort? Are they a a mean or a goal?
  37. 37. Part 2 Why?
  38. 38. Historical reasons
  39. 39. Historical reasons management techniques derived from traditional businesses
  40. 40. Management science’s impossible quest: in search of predictability The impossible quest for predictability
  41. 41. Prioritization
  42. 42. Prioritization estimates == prioritise on costs
  43. 43. Prioritization estimates == prioritise on costs learning should be your first priority Introducing deliberate discovery
  44. 44. Delivery date
  45. 45. Delivery date order-of-magnitude estimates are enough
  46. 46. Delivery date order-of-magnitude estimates are enough fixed-time fixed-budget more common and useful
  47. 47. Part 3 the
  48. 48. Few assumptions
  49. 49. Few assumptions ‣ Relevant parts sits in the Complex Domain ‣ Unpredictable business ‣ Detailed planning won’t save us
  50. 50. Few assumptions ‣ Relevant parts sits in the Complex Domain ‣ Unpredictable business ‣ Detailed planning won’t save us Few ideas…
  51. 51. Establish a tight feedback loop at all levels: tdd, continuous delivery, customer
  52. 52. Establish a tight feedback loop at all levels: tdd, continuous delivery, customer only thing that works in emergent domains
  53. 53. Just enough planning
  54. 54. Just enough planning Just-in-time planning
  55. 55. Just enough planning Just-in-time planning context changed assumptions debunked more knowledge
  56. 56. Just enough planning Just-in-time planning context changed assumptions debunked more knowledge explore new options
  57. 57. Iterate like there is no tomorrow
  58. 58. Iterate like there is no tomorrow working in iterations doesn’t mean iterating Embrace uncertainty
  59. 59. Become a master in slicing scope Login Catalog Add to cart Checkout
  60. 60. Become a master in slicing scope you’ll meet deadlines too! Login Catalog Add to cart Checkout
  61. 61. estimate less code more
  62. 62. Thanks Questions? info@massimoiacolare.it @iacoware Massimo Iacolare linkedin
  63. 63. I stand on the shoulders of giants Woody Zuill blog Vasco Duarte blog Neil Killick blog AgileCamp perfect flow - Gabriele Lana part1 - ITA AgileCamp perfect flow - Gabriele Lana part2 - ITA Estimation is the root of most software project failures Stop using story points The perils of estimation …and many, many more. Thank you all!

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