Predictions vs Pragmatism


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Being able to identify new trends, behaviours, channels or technologies and make predictions about their relevance in your organisation is a key skill set in the growingly complex in the ever-changing digital environment. In this talk we go through how to objectively evaluate a trend for your business and how you create a program that drives innovation.

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  • Steve Balmer quote for iPhone and enterpriseThey’re great for headlines to grab attention
  • Push the human race forwardScience fiction writers being hired by googleName some science fiction that’s come trueGoogle glasses – terminatorDon’t need to be that dramatic – they can follow a trend and allow you to have a competitive advantage As we work in digital we deal with a lot of predictions with our clients
  • Collaboration w/out co-ordination- How much does gov spend on meetings etcetc? Any dataAsk if people know what GitHub is – German Federal Law on github. Germany traditionally published their law in XML but it’s very hard to track what’s different – guess what github was built to do?Ask people if they’ve had issues managing versions of a document being shared among different peopleGit allows collaboration without co-ordination… it inherently allows communities that are enormously large and complex form and collaborate w/ easeOpen source software:Shows you diffs: what got changed, who changed itHas a function called git blame that shows the person who changed code & their emailThere are other people experimenting with political potential of open-source: all the wiki leak cables as well as software to help interpret quickly, new york sentate has put their senators up to show what bills the senator's are backingThe great thing about a system like this, a system with complete transparency is it completely circumvents media opinion, blah blah – point is it comes down to the factsTalk about the software that helped relief workers in disastersThe more ideas there are in circulation the more people will disagree
  • Broad term to describe a person’s experience with a system – interface and industrial design. Applies understanding of user’s drivers and needs to create cohesive, predictive and desirable outcomes.Born through software design and is increasingly influencing other areas of thinking where someone is trying to achieve behavior change – I think it has great potential within govt setting.Understand the real problem from a user’s perspective and offer the solution that fixes itIn UX design you obsess about the tiny details and inconveniences that stop people from performing some action and by doing so you incrementally deliver more valueIf you can identify and get rid of those minor frictions/obstacles people’s behavior changes drastically Application of ideas & principals that are seemingly small, on the margin but work by playing to human drivers and removing roadblocksTalk about filling in form w/ timerTalk about gaming introSet up the problem: govtlobying, trying to get people to stop smoking, pay taxes, saving money, driving safely, lose weight, etcUK – Behavioral Insights Team – also known as the nudge team after the popular book of the same nameThey believe that you have a more nuanced understanding what drives people’s behavior you can design policy that’s more efficient and yields more outcomesPlaying to people’s herd mentality: placing the copy ‘9 out of 10 people pay their tax online’ in top letter, makes people much more likely to pay tax on timeHand writing ‘contents important’ on letter yields incredible results: for every £1 spent on resources writing returns £2,000 of additional returns in conversions People don’t insulate homes enough, UK govt offered subsidy for years to encourage people to do so, by doing so people get their money back in a year but they still won’t do it, the nudge unit found the reason people won’t do it is that their attic is full of old stuff they haven’t gotten around to throwing out, so they ran a trail that offered an attic clearance scheme. This increased the uptake by 3-5 fold… and rather than the govt paying a subsidy, they charged people!US – IRS $345Bn lost because people misrepresent their income/deductionsMost of the money is based on SME’s taking cash & the govt doesn’t go after it because the bill would be political suicide;-Compliance-Rates-Remain-Statistically-Unchanged-From-Previous-StudyOne study done by Harvard Biz School in collaboration w/ US car insurance company sampled >13,000 people and asked to report # miles driven in prev year as indicated by car’s odometer cheating by under-reporting would come w/ benefit of reporting lower ins premiums. Half forms asked the customers to sign at the top, half at the bottom. The average of people asked to put their signature on the top was 2,400 miles more than people that signed the bottom
  • Predictions vs Pragmatism

    1. 1. © 2012 MassMedia Studios. Commercial in Confidence.
    2. 2. © 2012 MassMedia Studios. Commercial in Confidence.Predictions vs Pragmatism Value Approach >2013 predictions Systematic innovation
    3. 3. © 2012 MassMedia Studios. Commercial in Confidence.VALUE
    4. 4. © 2012 MassMedia Studios. Commercial in Confidence.Predictions asdfsdf“There is a world marketfor 5 computers.”Thomas WatsonIBM Chairman
    5. 5. © 2012 MassMedia Studios. Commercial in Confidence.Using Predictions
    6. 6. © 2012 MassMedia Studios. Commercial in Confidence.APPROACH
    7. 7. © 2012 MassMedia Studios. Commercial in Confidence.Evaluating PredictionsMVPDeliverablesPotentialTrendsDefinition
    8. 8. © 2012 MassMedia Studios. Commercial in Confidence.Think Small & Learn
    9. 9. © 2012 MassMedia Studios. Commercial in Confidence.>2013PREDICIONS
    10. 10. © 2012 MassMedia Studios. Commercial in Confidence.#1 Collaboration w/out Co-ordination1. Copy repository 3. Detailed history2. Push changesNYC senate org profileDE Fed law
    11. 11. © 2012 MassMedia Studios. Commercial in Confidence.#2 Policies w/ User Experience DesignPrimary use caseImportance ofhuman faces
    12. 12. © 2012 MassMedia Studios. Commercial in Confidence.SYSTEMATICINNOVATION
    13. 13. © 2012 MassMedia Studios. Commercial in Confidence.3 Horizons of ActivityResourcesTimeHorizon 1 70% Incremental value Optimise RefineHorizon 2 20% ScaleHorizon 3 10% Blue ocean
    14. 14. © 2012 MassMedia Studios. Commercial in Confidence.Instrumentation
    15. 15. © 2012 MassMedia Studios. Commercial in Confidence.END