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TSLA+TM

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TSLA+TM

  1. 1. TESLA (TSLA) TOYOTA (TM)
  2. 2. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ANALYSIS GDP PERSONAL INCOME CPI CORE CPI UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT CREDIT CARD PURCHASES ENERGY PRICES FED FUNDS RATE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE KEY INDICATORS +1.0% Q4 (Second Estimate) +0.5% -0.2% +0.3% 4.9% Feb. 2016 +259,000(p) Week Ending March 5 +5.0% +47% UNCHANGED -5.7% (92)
  3. 3. EQUITIES & ESTIMATES DJIA NASDAQ S&P 500 MSCI WORLD MSCI EMERGING MRKTS WTD RESULTS % ∆ 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.3 S&P 500 TARGET 10 YR. T.BILL WTI CRUDE GDP ESTIMATES % GLOBAL US EUROZONE EMERGING MARKETS 2000 2.0% $45.00 ------- 3.2 2.0 1.5 4.2 ESTIMATES - ML
  4. 4. GLOBAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
  5. 5. TEN YEAR T.BILL SPREAD & INTEREST RATES
  6. 6. YIELD CURVESEUROZONE JAPAN USA
  7. 7. MOVEMENTS IN OIL BRENT CRUDE OIL WTI CRUDE OIL
  8. 8. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS AUTOMOTIVE “Automotive Industry have been hit hard in recent months, with double-digit declines across the board. While equities in general have fared poorly, automakers have been sunk by fears of a sales peak in the U.S. and slowing growth in China” CHALLENGES Missing estimates for growth in China, -23% in industry since November 2015 v. S&P 500 Low fuel prices, new models attracting attention Average car is 12 years old making an easy replacement, luxury car market provides hefty margins China sales (Up 6% but below estimates) GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES NEAR FUTURE METRICS TO WATCH
  9. 9. INDUSTRY FORECAST Employees: total Nonfarm Payrolls v. Industry Sales Multiple R .790152 R Square 0.6243409 P-value 0.0065286 y = 11.46x - 806233 R² = 0.6243 $500,000.00 $550,000.00 $600,000.00 $650,000.00 $700,000.00 $750,000.00 $800,000.00 $850,000.00 $900,000.00 128000 130000 132000 134000 136000 138000 140000 142000 144000
  10. 10. REGRESSION SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.790152488 R Square 0.624340955 Adjusted R Square 0.577383574 Standard Error 39355.17361 Observations 10 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 20593095128 20593095128 13.29590675 0.006528675 Residual 8 12390637518 1548829690 Total 9 32983732646 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 90.0% Upper 90.0% Intercept -806233.3488 427618.884 -1.885401648 0.096103593 -1792324.264 179857.5661 -1601411.205 -11055.49214 X Variable 1 11.45958773 3.142751292 3.646355269 0.006528675 4.212390259 18.70678521 5.615490737 17.30368473
  11. 11. COMPANY ANALYSIS TESLA – TSLA TSLA Growth Rates Sales 23.5% Cash Flow NMF Earnings NMF Dividends NIL Book Value 16.5% Liquidity/Financial Health Current Ratio 0.99 Quick Ratio 0.49 Financial Leverage 7.43 Debt/Equity 1.87 Profitability Asset Turnover (Average) 0.58 Return on Assets % -12.75 Return on Equity % -88.84 Return on Invested Capital % -21.59 Interest Coverage -6.37
  12. 12. FORWARD GUIDANCE SHARE PRICECONSENSUS RECOMMENDATION
  13. 13. COMPANY ANALYSIS TOYOTA - TM TM Growth Rates Sales 4.5% Cash Flow 11.5% Earnings 22.50% Dividends 18.50% Book Value 4.50% Liquidity/Financial Health Current Ratio 1.10 Quick Ratio 0.79 Financial Leverage 2.83 Debt/Equity 0.59 Profitability Asset Turnover (Average) 0.60 Return on Assets % 4.87 Return on Equity % 13.86 Return on Invested Capital % 6.17 Interest Coverage 85.48
  14. 14. FORWARD GUIDANCE SHARE PRICECONSENSUS RECOMMENDATION
  15. 15. 3 Year Valuation Model TESLA Tesla 3 Year Valuation Year Dividend Required Return Div PV 1 $- 1.124510000 $- 2 $- 1.26452274 0 Beta 1.30 3 $- 1.421968466 0.000000000 Rm 10.00% EPS*(1+EGR)^2*P/E - - Recent Dividend $- Risk Free Rate 1.83% Required return 12.451% DGR 0.00% Intrinsic Price $- Overvalued EGR 0.00% Market Price $106.60 2/26/16 EPS (1.90) P/E -
  16. 16. Sensitivity Analysis Tesla-Market Cap 18.9($ Bil) P/E Beta EGR DGR ROR Valuation Market $237.57 3 Year Valuation($4.92) Low 0.00 0.48 16.50% 0.00% 459.32% 141.00 -96.57 136.08 Mean 0.00 0.60 16.50% 0.00% 528.74% 369.69 132.12 364.77 High 0.00 1.30 16.50% 0.00% 917.70% 231.40 -6.17 226.48 P/E Beta EGR DGR Valueline (Trailing/Past 10) -- 1.30 16.50% Valueline (Median/Past5) -- 1.30 16.50% Valueline (Forward/Est.) -- 1.30 16.50% Morningstar (Current/1yr Gr) -- 0.48 15.58% Morningstar (Forward) -- 0.48 15.58 Google Finance -- 0.56 15% Mergent Online -- 0.48 15.60% Yahoo Finance (Past) -- 0.48 15% Yahoo Finance (Forward) -- 0.48 15%
  17. 17. 3 Year Valuation Model TOYOTA Toyota 3 Year Valuation Year Dividend Required Return Div PV 1 $4.0000 1.095915000 $3.65 2 $5.6169 1.201029687 4.67673702 Beta 0.95 3 $6.6560 1.31622645 5.056900734 Rm 10.00% EPS*(1+EGR)^2*P/E 165.82 125.98 Recent Dividend $4.00 Risk Free Rate 1.83% Required return 9.592% DGR 18.50% Intrinsic Price $139.36 Undervalued EGR 22.50% Market Price $106.60 2/26/16 EPS 13.00 P/E 8.5
  18. 18. Sensitivity Analysis Toyota-Market Cap 168($Bil) P/E Beta EGR DGR ROR Valuation Market $135.40 3 Year Valuation$132 .05 Low 7.60 0.60 7.00% 10.00% 988.60% 118.50 -16.90 -13.55 Mean 9.05 0.68 13.00% 8.00% 1090.63% 135.80 0.40 3.75 High 17.56 0.95 22.50% 6.00% 1424.70% 178.31 42.91 46.26 P/E Beta EGR DGR Valueline (Trailing/Past 10) 8.70 0.90 7.00% 3.00% Valueline (Median/Past5) NMF 0.90 13.00% 6.00% Valueline (Forward/Est.) 8.50 0.95 22.50% 18.50% Morningstar (Current/1yr Gr) 8.00 0.60 12 3.40% Morningstar (Forward) 7.60 0.62 13 1.90% Google Finance 8.8 0.70 13.2 3.40% Mergent Online 17.56 0.65 13 3.64 Yahoo Finance (Past) 8.2 0.60 8 3 Yahoo Finance (Forward) 7.89 0.61 8 3.05
  19. 19. DIVERSIFICATION P-VALUE MULTIPLE R R SQUARE BETA VL-BETA 1.92742E-36 0.8310753 0.424833576 0.873518688 0.95 2.37675E-15 0.33039456 0.234173 .92 1.30
  20. 20. SOURCES http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Overview http://www3.valueline.com/ http://www.nasdaq.com/ https://www.google.com/finance http://library.morningstar.com.proxymu.wrlc.org

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