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# Simulation

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### Simulation

1. 1. 09/29/12 BHOJ REDDY ENGINEERING COLLEGE 1
2. 2. Outline:  Definition of Simulation  Advantages  Disadvantages  Process  Applications  Types09/29/12 BHOJ REDDY ENGINEERING COLLEGE 2 2
3. 3. Simulation- Meaning: Simulation is a process of designing a model of real system. conducting experiments with this model. purpose of understanding the behavior for the operation of the system. “ to assume the mere appearance of ,without the reality”09/29/12 BHOJ REDDY ENGINEERING COLLEGE 3 3
4. 4. DEFINITION:“Simulation is the process of designinga model of a real system and conductingexperiments with this model for thepurpose of either understanding thebehavior of the system and/orevaluating various strategies for theoperation of the system.” E.G.: 09/29/12 BHOJ REDDY ENGINEERING COLLEGE 4
5. 5. SIMULATION MODEL REAL MODEL09/29/12 BHOJ REDDY ENGINEERING COLLEGE 5
6. 6. Advantages to Simulation: Simulation’s greatest strength Is its ability to answer “what if” questions...09/29/12 BHOJ REDDY ENGINEERING COLLEGE 6 6
7. 7. Estimates the performance of existing system. ?Maintain much better control.Allows to study a system with long time frame.Useful for sensitivity analyses.Used as pre-test to try new policies and decision rule.Allows us to control time.09/29/12 BHOJ REDDY ENGINEERING COLLEGE 7
8. 8. Simulation is not without its drawbacks...09/29/12 BHOJ REDDY ENGINEERING COLLEGE 8 8
9. 9. Disadvantages: Some simulation may take longerperiod of time to develop.Produce different result in repeatedrun.Does not generate optimal solution.User has to provide all constraint.Simulation results are sometimes hardto interpret.Simulation analysis can be timeconsuming and expensive.09/29/12 BHOJ REDDY ENGINEERING COLLEGE 9 9
10. 10. FORMULATE THE PROBLEM AND PLAN THE STUDYP COLLECT THE DATA AND DEVELOP THE SIMULATION MODELRO CHECK THE ACCURACY OF THE SIMULATION MODELC SELECT THE SOFTWARE AND CONSTRUCT A COMPUTER PROGRAME TEST THE VALIDITY OF THE SIMULATION MODELS PLAN THE SIMULATION TO BE PERFORMEDS CONDUCT THE SIMULATION AND ANALYSE THE RESULTS PRESENT RECOMMENDATION TO MANAGEMENT09/29/12 BHOJ REDDY ENGINEERING COLLEGE 10 10
11. 11. APPLICATIONS OF SIMULATION:1>NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT:DETERMINE THAT NEW PRODUCT IS PROFITABLE?MODEL WILL BE DEVELOPED.POSSIBLE VALUES ARE GENERATED USINGSIMULATION MODEL.2>AIRLINE RESERVATION:DETERMINE THE NUMBER OF RESERVATION ANAIRLINE SHOULD ACCEPT FOR A PARTICULAR FLIGHT.SIMULATION MODEL IS DEVELOPED BASED ONNUMBER OF PASSENGER AND SHOW UP RESULTINGPROFIT. 09/29/12 BHOJ REDDY ENGINEERING COLLEGE 11
12. 12. 3>DESIGN AND OPERATION OFMANUFACTURING SYSTEMS:IN SCHEDULING JOBS IF SOME COMPLICATIONSOCCURS SUCH AS BREAKDOWNS,DEFECTIVE ITEMS ETC.SUCH COMPLICATIONS ARE NO PROBLEM FORSIMULATION.4>DESIGN AND OPERATION OF DISTRIBUTINGSYSTEMS:UNCERTANTIES MAY ARISE IN TRANSPORTATION OFGOODS FROM MANUFACTURER TO CONSUMERS,BYGENERATING RANDOM RELEVANT PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTION,SIMULATION CAN DEAL WITH THESEUNCERTANITIES. 09/29/12 BHOJ REDDY ENGINEERING COLLEGE 12
13. 13. 5>FINANCIAL RISK ANALYSIS:E.G.:EVALUATION OF PROPOSED CAPITALINVESTMENT WITH UNCERTAIN FUTURE CASHFLOWS,SIMULATION CAN GENERATE THOUSANDSOF ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION FOR HOW THEINVESTMENT WILL TURNOUT.6>HEALTH CARE APPLICATIONS:EVALUATION OF RISKY INVESTMENT ANDANALYSIS OF FUTURE UNCERTAINTIES.UNCERTAINTIES SUCH AS EVOLUTION OF HUMANDISEASES ARE ALSO DETERMINED USINGSIMULATION.09/29/12 BHOJ REDDY ENGINEERING COLLEGE 13
14. 14. TYPES OF SIMULATION:1>PROBABILISTIC SIMULATION:IN THIS ONE OR MORE INDEPENDENT VARIABLEFOLLOW A CERTAIN PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION.ITHAS TWO SUBCATEGORIES1)DISCRETE DISTRIBUTION:LIMITED EVENTS2)CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTION:UNLIMITED EVENTS2>TIME DEPENDENT AND TIME INDEPENDENTSIMULATION:WHEN IT IS NOT IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHEN EVENTOCCURRED IS “TIME INDEPENDENT” AND WHENNECESSARY TO KNOW PRECISE TIME-- TIME DEPENDENT 09/29/12 BHOJ REDDY ENGINEERING COLLEGE 14
15. 15. 3>VISUAL SIMULATION:IT IS ALSO KNOWN AS VISUAL INTERACTIVESIMULATION(V.I.S).IT USES COMPUTER GRAPHICDISPLAY TO PRESENT THE IMPACT OF VARIOUSMANAGERIAL DECISION.4>BUSINESS GAMES:THESE ARE COMPETITIVE DECISION MAKINGINVOLVING PROBABILISTIC SIMULATION.5>LARGE SYSTEM SIMULATION:SIMULATION MAY BE APPLIED IN CORPORATEPLANNING,ESPECIALLY THE FINANCIALASPECTS(BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM). 09/29/12 BHOJ REDDY ENGINEERING COLLEGE 15 And the list goes on and on...
16. 16. 09/29/12 BHOJ REDDY ENGINEERING COLLEGE 16