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ITCandor ‘Expectations 2010’

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2010 will be a year of recovery for the ITC market worldwide. In this presentation Martin Hingley and his company (ITCandor) offers you 10 major expectations for the year.

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ITCandor ‘Expectations 2010’

  1. 1. ITC ‘Expectations 2010’ – Cloud, Gaming And Convergence Drives The Recovery Martin Hingley, President, ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  2. 2. Agenda • On Making Expectations And Predictions • The ITC ‘Expectations 2010’ – World ITC Market Forecast – Regional ITC Growth Forecast – Cloud Computing – New Analytic Techniques – Government ITC Spending – Third Party Channels – Enterprise Network War – Data Centre Efficiency Drivers – Software Drivers – The PC Market • Some Conclusions – A Realistic Forecast For ITC Market Recovery ITC Analyst Report
  3. 3. On Making Expectations And Predictions • This presentation was made by Martin Hingley with the help of ‘Henry Fellows’ Carsten Schmidt, Marcel Warmerdam and Pim Bilderbeek • Sizing and Forecasts are based on ITCandor’s Market Model • 2010 will be exciting for CIOs, End-Users and Industry Execs • ‘Expectations’ are designed to be stimulating • These predictions exclude specific actions which imply either insider knowledge or sheer guess work ITC Analyst Report
  4. 4. 1. The World ITC Market Will Grow Zero Percent ITC Growth Forecast By Category ($US) – 2008-2013 • There was a decline of 10% in 25% 2009 Hardware 20% IT Service • The market is Software already in 15% Telecom Service recovery mode World ITC • The ITC market 10% will show zero percent growth in 5% 2010 0% • Hardware will lead the recovery -5% • 2010 will see a -10% return to infrastructure 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -15% spending absent in 11% 8% 11% 19% 9% -10% 0% 6% 8% 7% Source: ITCandor 2009 ITC Analyst Report
  5. 5. 2. Asia Pacific Will Lead Regional ITC Growth ITC Growth Forecast By Region ($US) – 2004-2013 • Asia Pacific suffered the 30% greatest decline in 25% Americas 2009 Asia Pacific • It will outgrow the 20% EMEA Americas and World ITC 15% EMEA in 2010 with 10% ITC spending of $1.8t 5% • Asia Pacific will 0% see a growth in IT -5% Services • Hardware will -10% remain -15% comparatively 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 strong in Asia -20% 11% 8% 11% 19% 9% -10% 0% 6% 8% 7% Pacific Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  6. 6. 3. Cloud Computing Matures To Become A Profitable Delivery Mechanism • Cloud Computing will Internal External mature enough for Users Users suppliers to see a return on investment Cloud Computing • Traditional CIOs will have the biggest challenge Private Public • A strong take-up of Cloud Cloud ‘… as a Service’ offerings by small Implementation PaaS and medium companies Consolidation IaaS • The development of Modernisation SaaS ‘horizontal outsourcing’ and Virtualisation …aaS business services via the Cloud Service Hosting IT Supplier ISV Provider (Telco) Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  7. 7. 4. New Analytic Techniques Will Emerge To Handle The Upsurge In Digital Data • Monitoring and Output metering expands computable data • Digitising Analogue process creates new information New Analytics • Advanced analytics will be used make sense of on-line processes and Input unstructured data • New de-duplication processes will be needed in 2010 • Techniques will be Machine Traditional applied from High Performance Data Data Computing expertise Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  8. 8. 5. Government ITC Spending Will Come Under Greater Pressure Worldwide IT Spending Growth By Vertical Market ($US) • Public Administration 25% spending was the 2007 2008 2009 Distribution strongest Vertical 20% market in 2009 Finance • It will come under 15% increasing 10% pressure in 2010 • Lower taxes due 5% Others Public to the recession 0% will require cost Total Business IT cutting -5% • Re-generation projects and -10% Health will have Source: ITCandor positive growth ITC Analyst Report
  9. 9. 6. Business And Industry Expertise – Not Logistics – Define Third Party Channels • 2009 was a terrible year for Distribution Sell End Of Life many channel 1st Customer Recycler partners Resell • Increasing 2nd Customer Ship competition from Re- vendor direct sales Finished Goods Nth Customer purpose Manufacturer • Channel players will increasingly become service Scrap Assemble Recover providers • Cloud Computing Component Component Manufacturer Manufacturer will accelerate the N A Raw Recycled Landfill provision of simple Material Material Component business process Manufacturer Process outsourcing by B industry specialists New Equipment Channel Disposal Channel Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  10. 10. 7. The Enterprise Network War Will Intensify Enterprise Network Equipment Growth By Supplier ($US) • The Enterprise Network market 50% was poor in 2009 40% • Cisco’s UCS Juniper ZTE introduction 30% Avaya disrupted its 20% relationship with 10% Cisco many system vendors 0% HP • 2010 will see more EMC -10% M&A activity -20% Alcatel Lucent • Convergence between -30% Nortel networking and -40% systems and -50% Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 between IT and C will continue Source: ITCandor apace ITC Analyst Report
  11. 11. 8. Higher Electricity Prices – Not Legislation Or CSR – Will Drive Improvements In Data Centre Efficiency • The Copenhagen The Five Phases Of Data Centre Transformation Summit failed • There is no legally binding agreement on reducing Physical greenhouse gases Centralization Consolidation • CSR continues to take a back sea in the recession • 10% of CIOs and AIX their organisations are committed to alternative energy Data Migration Application • Higher Electricity Integration prices will drive data centre transformation and efficiency Storage improvements Consolidation Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  12. 12. 9. Gaming Applications Will Continue To Out- Perform Other Software Areas Software Spending Forecast ($US) – 2003-2013 • Demand for ITC from consumers continues to outstrip $350 that from businesses $300 during the downturn $250 • Gaming software will out perform other $US billion $200 software categories $150 in 2010 • Gaming software will $100 spread across $50 consoles, PCs and phones $0 2003 2004 2005 Americas • Digitising the book 2006 EMEA 2007 2008 2009 2010 Asia Pacific industry and the 2011 2012 2013 production of associated tablets Source: ITCandor will lead to growth ITC Analyst Report
  13. 13. 10. The PC Market Will Grow By 1.5% , But Device Diversity And Desktop Virtualisation Continue World PC Growth Forecast ($US) – 2007-2013 • PCs are the largest single component of 30% the ITC market 2008 2009 25% 25% $337b $289b • The market fell by 6% -14% 20% 14% in value in 2009 15% 16% • The PC market will 13% grow by 1.5% in 10% 7% 6% 2010 5% 5% 4% 3% • Increasing 3% 0% 1% competition will -5% -3% come from -9% alternative devices -10% -11% -13% and virtual desktops -15% -15% • Telecoms companies 2007 -19% 2010 2011 2012 2013 -20% $294b $308b $321b $329b will develop as a $319b -25% 19% 1.5% 5% 4% 3% distribution channel Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  14. 14. Some Conclusions – A Realistic Forecast For ITC Market Recovery • ITCandor’s research measured the downturn accurately through its detailed focus on vendor revenues • Recent quarterly financial results demonstrate a return to growth for a few and an up-tick for most vendors • Zero percent growth may be over-optimistic if major disasters intervene • 2010 will be an exciting year in the ITC industry for CIOs, end-users and industry execs • ITCandor wishes you the best of luck ITC Analyst Report
  15. 15. Questions, Answers And Contact Details Martin Hingley, President, ITCandor Limited Martin_Hingley@itcandor.com Mobile: +44 (0)771104555 Office: +44 (0)1235202125 ITC Analyst Report

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