ITC Forecast and Review 2009

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This is the latest and most complete forecast and market share document published by ITCandor to date. Please contact me if you would like to download the presentation

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ITC Forecast and Review 2009

  1. 1. World Information Technology and Communications Market Shares, Trends And Forecasts Martin Hingley, Managing Director, ITCandor Limited Contact: Martin_Hingley@Yahoo.co.uk ITC Analyst Report
  2. 2. Agenda - Market Shares, Trends And Forecasts In World ICT Markets • Methodology • Worldwide ICT by Revenue, Net Profit, Profit Margin, Headcount • Regional ITC by Category – Americas – EMEA – Asia Pacific • EMEA ITC Market Shares – IT • Hardware • IT Service • Software – Telecom Service • Conclusions – Some Observations on Regional and Category Differences ITC Analyst Report
  3. 3. Methodology – The ITCandor Market Model • The ITCandor Market Model is based on vendor quarterly financial results • Vendors are chosen on a ‘top-down’ basis as representative of their leadership in categories and regions • Categories are chosen as those important to the ITC market – Hardware – IT service – Software – Telecom Service • Regions are chosen as representative of world markets – Americas – Asia Pacific – EMEA • Forecasts are produced by looking at trends in previous quarters, knowledge of previous market development and economic indicators ITC Analyst Report
  4. 4. Worldwide - ICT Revenue Growth By Region 2004-2009 Constant Currency (Long View) •Asia Pacific has 30% under-performed other regions since Americas 2008 20% •EMEA has been Revenue Growth % under-performing 10% other regions in Worldwide 2006 and 2007 EMEA Asia Pacific 0% •The Americas out-performed otter regions in -10% 2006 and 2007 •Constant currency -20% views show comparative 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 growth by region -30% Notes: America and Worldwide ICT in $US, Asia Pacific in Yen and EMEA in € Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  5. 5. Worldwide - ICT Revenue Growth By Region 2004-2009 Constant Currency (Shorter View) •Worldwide ITC downturn 30% started with significant 2007 2008 2009 decline from Q408 onwards 20% •Asia Pacific has been Worldwide doing worst of the three Revenue Growth % regions over the last three 10% quarters •The Americas curve is shallower than others, but 0% Americas EMEA is beaten by EMEA in recent quarters -10% •EMEA shows a distinct improvement in Q209, but is expected to show a -20% double-dip in Q3 Asia Pacific -30% Notes: America and Worldwide ICT in $US, Asia Pacific in Yen and EMEA in € Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  6. 6. Worldwide - ITC Revenue by Category and Quarter – 2003-2009 ($US Billion) •Telecom $1,200 Service is by far the largest $1,000 single category •IT Service Telecom Service remains above $800 the other two IT categories $600 •Software closes the gap $400 on Hardware, IT Service but remains Hardware behind $200 Hardware Software throughout the $0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 forecast Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  7. 7. Worldwide – ITC Revenue Growth Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 ($US Billion) •Strong growth 50% in Telecom Telecom Service Services in 40% 2006-7 fails to protect it from 30% the downturn ITC Total •Hardware 20% performs worst to 2009, but Software 10% leads us out Hardware IT Service •Software 0% curve is shallower, has -10% best growth in 2012-13 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -20% Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  8. 8. Americas – ITC Revenue by Category and Quarter – 2003-2009 ($US Billion) •Market size is $300 very seasonal with Q4 peaks $250 •Telecom Service has out- Telecom Service performed other $200 categories since 2006 •IT Service is $150 strong (in IT Service comparison with other regions) $100 Hardware •Software challenges $50 Software Hardware from 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 $0 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  9. 9. Americas – ITC Revenue Growth by Category and Quarter – 2003-2009 ($US Billion) •Very strong 70% growth – especially from 60% AT&T in Telecom 50% Service in 2005- Revenue Growth % 2007 Telecom Service 40% •Software has been strongest 30% of IT categories ITC Total 20% •Hardware had poor growth 10% Software from 2005 Hardware onwards, but will 0% lead us out of IT Service the downturn -10% -20% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -30% Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  10. 10. Americas – ITC Revenue Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 ($US Billion) •2007 and 2008 $1,200 were very strong •The decline in $1,000 2008-9 is Telecom Service significant with ITC spending $800 returning to 2005 levels •Telecom $600 Services remains IT Service the largest category in later $400 years Hardware Software •Software $200 challenges - but does not overtake - 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Hardware $0 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  11. 11. Americas – ITC Revenue Growth Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 ($US Billion) •Strong growth 50% in Telecom Services in 40% Telecom Service 2006-7 fails to Revenue Growth % protect it from 30% the downturn •Hardware 20% ITC Total performs worst to 2009, but Software leads us out 10% Hardware •Software IT Service 0% curve is shallower, has -10% best growth in 2012-13 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -20% Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  12. 12. Americas – ITC Net Profit Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 ($US Billion) •Profit drops $80 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 out of Hardware and $70 Telecom Service remains low throughout $60 IT Service latter years Software $50 •Software and IT Service $40 retain high absolute $30 profits throughout $20 •Telecom $10 Service profits Hardware drop from $0 2008 onwards Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  13. 13. Americas – ITC Headcount Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (Millions) •ITC 3.0 employment peaks at 6.7 2.5 million in Q408 Telecom Service •Employment 2.0 IT Service drops in total to 5.5 million by 2013 1.5 •Hardware Software employment 1.0 grows while Hardware the other categories 0.5 drop from 2009 onwards 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.0 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  14. 14. Asia Pacific – ITC Revenue by Category and Quarter – 2003-2009 (¥Japan Billion) •Market size is ¥35,000 very seasonal 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 with a Q1 peak ¥30,000 •Telecom Service Telecom Service has out- performed other ¥25,000 categories since 2006 ¥20,000 •Hardware is by far the strongest ¥15,000 IT category •IT Service is ¥10,000 Hardware weaker than IT Service Hardware ¥5,000 •Software Software remains the smallest category ¥0 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  15. 15. Asia Pacific – ITC Revenue Growth by Category and Quarter – 2003-2009 (¥Japan Billion) •Software has 40% consistently out performed other 30% categories in Software most quarters Revenue Growth % 20% •Telecom Service Hardware Telecom Service shows similar 10% growth to other categories ITC Total 0% •Hardware has consistently IT Service -10% under-performed other categories -20% since the middle of 2008 -30% •IT Service has done relatively 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 well over the last -40% year Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  16. 16. Asia Pacific – ITC Revenue Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (¥Japan Billion) •2007 and 2008 ¥140,000 were very strong 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 •The decline in ¥120,000 2008-9 is Telecom Service significant with ITC spending ¥100,000 around 2005 levels ¥80,000 •Telecom Services out- ¥60,000 performs other categories throughout ¥40,000 Hardware IT Service •Software continues as the ¥20,000 smallest category Software ¥0 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  17. 17. Asia Pacific – ITC Revenue Growth Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (¥Japan Billion) •Software 30% growth has a shallower Telecom Service downturn, but 20% Revenue Growth % Software takes longer to recover 10% •Hardware has ITC Total the steepest 0% fall, but IT Service recovers fastest in 2010 -10% •Telecom Service stays -20% Hardware on a par with overall ITC 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 trends -30% Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  18. 18. Asia Pacific – ITC Net Profit Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (¥Japan Billion) •Profit drops ¥6,000 most steeply in 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Hardware, but (unlike in other ¥5,000 regions) recovers Telecom Service in 2010 ¥4,000 •Telecom Service’s high profits reduce ¥3,000 and stay low IT Service •IT Service becomes the ¥2,000 most profitable category from 2010 onwards ¥1,000 Software •Software profits Hardware are consistent, but remain the ¥0 smallest category Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  19. 19. Asia Pacific – ITC Headcount Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (Millions) •ITC 3.0 employment 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 peaks at 5.4 million in 2008 2.5 •Employment Telecom Service drops in total to 4.8 million in 2.0 2013 •Hardware 1.5 IT Service Hardware employment grows - overtakes IT 1.0 Service in 2012 •Telecom Service loses 390k 0.5 Software employees between 2005 and 2013 0.0 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  20. 20. EMEA – ITC Revenue by Category and Quarter – 2003-2009 (€Euro Billion) •Market size is €300 very seasonal 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 with a Q4 peak €250 •Telecom Service peaked in Q1 2008 mainly due Telecom Service to Vodafone’s €200 results •IT Service is €150 clearly the largest IT category €100 IT Service •Software closes Hardware the gap, but remains smaller €50 than Hardware Software €0 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  21. 21. EMEA – ITC Revenue Growth by Category and Quarter – 2009-2013 (€Euro Billion) •Telecom 25% revenues show 20% greater peaks Telecom Service and troughs than 15% other categories Revenue Growth % 10% •Software has Software stronger growth 5% in most quarters 0% ITC Total •IT Service tends IT Service to under-perform -5% other categories Hardware -10% •Hardware and Software show -15% steepest decline -20% in 2009 -25% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -30% Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  22. 22. EMEA – ITC Revenue Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (€Euro Billion) •2008 was the €1,200 peak year •Value in 2010 will be similar to €1,000 2005 •Telecom Telecom Service €800 Services remains the largest category in later €600 years •IT Service is IT Service consistently the €400 strongest IT Hardware category €200 •Software closes Software the gap - but 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 does not €0 overtake - Hardware Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  23. 23. EMEA – ITC Revenue Growth Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (€Euro Billion) •Software has 20% the strongest growth, except 15% Software for in the recovery period Revenue Growth % ITC Total 2010-2011 10% •Hardware’s 5% Telecom Service decline is steepest, but IT Service out-strips other 0% categories in the recovery -5% •IT Service shows the same -10% growth as overall Hardware ITC -15% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -20% Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  24. 24. EMEA – ITC Net Profit Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (€Euro Billion) •Hardware profit €140 drop and 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 remains low between 2009 €120 Telecom Service and 2013 •Software profits €100 remain the most consistent of €80 categories •IT Service €60 profits take over from Telecom Service in 2012 €40 IT Service •Telecom Service profits drop from €20 Software 2008 onwards Hardware €0 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  25. 25. EMEA – ITC Headcount Forecast by Category – 2003-2013 (Millions) •ITC 4.5 employment drops from a 4.0 peak of 8.3 Telecom Service million in 2007 to 3.5 7.0 million in 2013 3.0 •Hardware 2.5 overtakes IT Service Software in 2009 2.0 •Telecom Service remains by far 1.5 the largest employer in Hardware 1.0 EMEA Software •IT Service loses 0.5 800k employees 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 between 2007 0.0 and 2013 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  26. 26. Worldwide Market Shares – All ITC – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Trillions) AT&T IBM DT AT&T IBM DT HP 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% HP 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.9% Telefonica 1.7% Telefonica 1.3% 1.2% Vodafone Vodafone 1.1% 1.3% Sony Sony 1.1% 1.1% Others Others 90.1% 90.4% Total: $6.68T Total: $6.17T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  27. 27. Worldwide Market Shares – Hardware – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Trillions) HP HP 7.3% 7.4% Samsung Samsung 6.0% 5.7% Nokia Nokia 6.6% 5.7% Sony Sony 5.6% 5.5% Dell Dell 4.4% 4.4% Others Hitachi Hitachi Others 64.1% 3.5% 3.3% 64.9% Cisco Cisco 2.7% 2.8% Total: $1.22T Total: $1.07T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  28. 28. Worldwide Market Shares – IT Service – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Trillions) HP Siemens HP Siemens IBM 1.3% 2.7% Google IBM 2.5% 2.1% Google 4.0% 4.1% 1.3% 1.6% AT&T AT&T 1.4% 1.5% Amazon Amazon 1.2% 1.5% Fujitsu 1.2% Fujitsu 1.4% Others Others 86.9% 85.2% Total: $1.47T Total: $1.39T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  29. 29. Worldwide Market Shares – Software – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Billions) Accenture Accenture Microsoft 3.5% IBM Microsoft 3.6% IBM 4.2% 3.1% 4.1% 3.2% Oracle Oracle 2.7% 2.9% Symantec 0.9% Symantec SAP 0.8% 0.8% SAP 0.6% CA CA 0.6% 0.6% Others Others 84.1% 84.1% Total: $661B Total: $645B Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  30. 30. Worldwide Market Shares – Telecom Service – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Trillions) DT Telefonica Telefonica DT 2.1% AT&T 2.4% AT&T 2.5% 2.3% Vodafone Vodafone 2.5% 2.4% 2.7% 2.0% FT FT 1.8% 1.8% Tel Italia Tel Italia 1.3% 1.3% Sprint Sprint 1.2% 1.1% Others Others 86.2% 86.2% Total: $3.33T Total: $3.06T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  31. 31. Americas Market Shares – All ITC – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Trillions) HP HP IBM IBM AT&T 2.1% Sprint AT&T 2.4% 1.9% 2.0% Sprint 3.8% 1.7% 4.0% 1.6% Dell Dell 1.7% 1.5% Telefonica Telefonica 1.4% 1.5% Apple Apple 0.8% 1.0% Others Others 86.6% 86.0% Total: $2.21T Total: $2.09T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  32. 32. Americas Market Shares – Hardware – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Billions) HP HP 9.8% 10.2% Dell Dell 9.2% 8.5% Apple Apple 4.1% 5.1% Sony Sony 4.5% 4.4% Samsung Samsung Others 4.7% Others 62.2% 62.0% 4.4% Cisco Cisco 2.8% 3.0% Canon Canon 2.7% 2.5% Total: $369B Total: $334B Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  33. 33. Americas Market Shares – IT Service – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Billions) AT&T AT&T IBM HP IBM 3.2% HP 2.8% 4.4% 1.4% Amazon 4.6% 2.8% 1.6% Amazon Google 2.0% 1.7% Google CSC 2.0% 1.8% CSC 1.9% Siemens 1.8% Siemens 1.5% Others Others 84.4% 82.0% Total: $574B Total: $539B Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  34. 34. Americas Market Shares – Software – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Billions) Accenture Accenture Microsoft 3.2% Oracle Microsoft 3.4% Oracle 4.1% 3.0% 3.8% 3.2% IBM IBM 2.9% 3.0% Symantec Symantec 1.0% 1.0% CA 0.7% CA 0.7% EMC EMC 0.7% 0.6% Others Others 84.4% 84.3% Total: $303B Total: $302B Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  35. 35. Americas Market Shares – Telecom Service – Year to Q208 and Q209 ($US Billions) AT&T Sprint AT&T Sprint 7.0% 4.0% 7.3% 3.7% Telefonica Telefonica 3.1% 3.3% DT DT 1.7% 1.7% Tel Italia Tel Italia 0.9% 0.7% Vodafone Vodafone 0.7% 0.5% BT BT 0.2% 0.2% Others Others 82.5% 82.6% Total: $960B Total: $915B Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  36. 36. Asia Pacific Market Shares – All ITC – Year to Q208 and Q209 (¥Japan Trillions) Hitachi Fujitsu China Tel AT&T IBM DT Sony 1.9% 1.6% 1.3% HP 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.9% Samsung 1.9% Telefonica 1.7% 1.3% Nokia Vodafone 1.4% 1.1% Sony IBM 1.1% 1.1% Others Others 89.2% 90.1% Total: ¥212T Total: ¥179T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  37. 37. Asia Pacific Market Shares – Hardware – Year to Q208 and Q209 (¥Japan Trillions) Sony Sony 7.6% 7.9% Hitachi Hitachi 7.7% 7.7% Samsung Samsung 7.5% 7.2% Nokia Nokia 6.4% 5.7% Others Others Toshiba 58.9% Toshiba 59.7% 4.6% 4.3% Fujitsu Fujitsu 3.8% 3.7% HP HP 3.7% 3.5% Total: ¥47.7T Total: ¥37.5T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  38. 38. Asia Pacific Market Shares – IT Service – Year to Q208 and Q209 (¥Japan Trillions) IBM IBM Fujitsu China Tel Fujitsu China Tel 4.6% 4.5% 5.1% 1.9% 5.4% 2.3% HP HP 1.3% 2.1% NTT 2.2% NTT 2.0% Google 1.4% Google 1.9% Siemens 1.8% Siemens 1.6% Others Others 81.6% 80.1% Total: ¥29T Total: ¥27T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  39. 39. Asia Pacific Market Shares – Software – Year to Q208 and Q209 (¥Japan Trillions) Microsoft Microsoft Oracle IBM 4.6% Oracle IBM 4.4% 2.7% 4.6% 2.8% 4.5% Accenture Accenture 2.4% 2.2% Symantec Symantec 1.0% 0.8% HP HP 0.6% 0.6% CA CA 0.7% 0.6% Others Others 83.8% 83.5% Total: ¥10.5T Total: ¥9.6T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  40. 40. Asia Pacific Market Shares – Telecom Service – Year to Q208 and Q209 (¥Japan Trillions) Vodafone Vodafone Telstra 0.7% AT&T Telstra 0.8% AT&T NTT NTT 1.8% 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% China Tel 0.3% China Tel 0.4% 1.8% Tel Italia 2.1% Tel Italia 0.1% 0.1% DT DT 0.0% 0.0% Others Others 95.0% 94.6% Total: ¥125T Total: ¥104T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  41. 41. EMEA Market Shares – All ITC – Year to Q208 and Q209 (€Euro Trillions) DT DT Vodafone Vodafone FT 2.5% FT 2.8% 2.8% Telefonica 2.3% Telefonica 2.8% 2.9% 2.1% 2.1% HP HP 1.8% 2.1% IBM IBM 1.5% 1.5% Tel Italia Tel Italia 1.4% 1.4% Others Others 85.2% 85.0% Total: €1.73T Total: €1.66T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  42. 42. EMEA Market Shares – Hardware – Year to Q208 and Q209 (€Euro Billions) HP HP 6.1% 6.4% Nokia Nokia 6.9% 6.3% Samsung Samsung 3.8% 3.9% Cisco Cisco 2.9% 3.2% Sony Sony 2.9% 3.2% Dell Dell 2.1% 2.5% Apple 1.4% Apple 1.9% Others Others 73.9% 72.5% Total: €415B Total: €358B Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  43. 43. EMEA Market Shares – IT Service – Year to Q208 and Q209 (€Euro Billions) Siemens HP Siemens HP 2.6% 0.9% BT 2.1% 1.8% BT IBM IBM 1.3% FT 1.4% 2.4% 2.6% FT 1.1% 1.2% Cap Gemini Cap Gemini 1.1% 1.2% DT DT 1.2% 1.1% Others Others 89.4% 88.6% Total: €637B Total: €576B Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  44. 44. EMEA Market Shares – Software – Year to Q208 and Q209 (€Euro Billions) Microsoft Microsoft IBM IBM Accenture 2.9% 2.0% Oracle Accenture 3.1% 3.0% 3.3% 2.2% Oracle 1.6% 1.9% SAP SAP 0.7% 0.7% Symantec Symantec 0.5% 0.4% HP HP 0.4% 0.4% Others Others 88.9% 88.0% Total: €253B Total: €245B Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  45. 45. EMEA Market Shares – Telecom Service – Year to Q208 and Q209 (€Euro Trillions) DT Vodafone DT Vodafone FT 2.9% 3.7% FT 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% Telefonica Telefonica 2.8% 3.1% Tel Italia 1.9% Tel Italia 2.2% BT 1.1% BT 1.0% AT&T 0.7% AT&T 0.8% Others Others 83.5% 82.3% Total: €1.23T Total: €1.09T Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  46. 46. Worldwide Major ITC Vendor Revenue Evolution – Rolling 4Qs ($US Billions) •HP (including $140 EDS revenues HP* historically) heads the ITC $120 market AT&T •AT&T and other $100 Telecom Service suppliers have IBM grown strongly $80 •IBM and Deutsche Telekom Samsung have grown relatively $60 Samsung slowly Vodafone $40 Telefonica $20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  47. 47. Americas Major ITC Vendor Revenue Evolution – Rolling 4Qs ($US Billions) •AT&T’s US focus $90 makes it head of AT&T ITC market in $80 the Americas $70 •The strength of the IT market $60 gives HP and IBM 2nd and 3rd HP* places $50 IBM •Telefonica and $40 Sprint have Dell grown faster $30 Telefonica than IT Sprint specialists $20 •Apple shows Apple $10 significant growth $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  48. 48. Asia Pacific Major ITC Vendor Revenue Evolution – Rolling 4Qs (¥ Japan Billions) •Sony heads the ¥4,000 Asia Pacific ITC Samsung market (just) Hitachi ¥3,500 Sony •Hitachi, Samsung and ¥3,000 Fujitsu suffer in Fujitsu the downturn ¥2,500 •IBM’s revenues show slower IBM growth ¥2,000 China Telecom •Nokia and China Telecom ¥1,500 show strong Nokia growth in recent years ¥1,000 ¥500 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  49. 49. EMEA Major ITC Vendor Revenue Evolution – Rolling 4Qs (€Euro Billions) •Telecom €55 Service suppliers are the most €50 important ITC France Telecom leaders €45 Deutsche Telekom •HP and IBM are the only IT suppliers among €40 the top Telefonica companies €35 •Vodafone has Vodafone demonstrated HP* the most €30 dynamic growth IBM (and decline) €25 Telecom Italia €20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ITCandor ITC Analyst Report
  50. 50. Conclusions – Some Observations on Regional and Category Differences • Telecom Service vendors dominate EMEA ITC leadership positions • Hardware is vastly more important in Asia Pacific • Quarterly Revenue peaks differ – Q1 in Asia Pacific, Q4 in EMEA and the Americas • Software is more important in the Americas • IT Services is stronger in EMEA and the Americas • Hardware has the least vendors, Software and IT Service the most • Telecom Service is the most localised – its vendors are usually stronger than the biggest IT vendors in their region • Although all categories and regions are experiencing the downturn at different rates, all are severely affected • ITCandor is forecasting a relatively fast upturn, led by Hardware spending ITC Analyst Report

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