www.michiganfuture.orgLent Upson Lecture in Public AdministrationMay 17, 2012                                              1
Our goalA high prosperity    Michigan                    2
Making the case for A New Michigan                      3
What state do we want to emulate?  State     Per capita   Unemployment   Poverty   Education             income           ...
Top 10 states in per capita income Connecticut         Wyoming Massachusetts       Virginia New Jersey          Alaska Mar...
Components of per capita income•   Private employment earnings•   Government employment earnings•   Investment earnings•  ...
Top 10 states in private sector earnings         (except natural resources)     Massachusetts        New Hampshire     Con...
Bottom 10 states in private sector earnings            (except natural resources)       Alabama              Arkansas     ...
Best states in private income                 Private, Non-Nat                     Resources                      Gov’t. E...
Worst states in private income                 Private, Non-Nat                     Resources                      Gov’t. ...
What state do we want to emulate?  State     Per Capita   Private, Non-Nat    U      Poverty   Education             Incom...
Traits of prosperous states• High proportion of wages from knowledge      industries• High proportion of college grads• Bi...
What is the knowledge economy?                     public        goods                                    5%   information...
Michigan’s income rank alignedwith our college attainment rank                Per Cap Income    % 4 year degree 10 15     ...
10 Most Prosperous Regions• San Jose/San Fran.   • Seattle• Washington/Balt.     • Houston• NY/Newark            • San Die...
Major metros smarter      Percent Education Attainment by Metro Population                                                ...
Major metros richer            Per capita income by metro population                                                      ...
Big metros winning      in private sector earningsCSAs and non-CSA MSAs     Private         Private     Government      Po...
Metro Detroit vs.              Metro Minneapolis   City       Per cap      Education       Share of wages from            ...
Metro Grand Rapids vs.             Metro Minneapolis    City       Per cap      Education       Share of wages from       ...
Metro Lansing vs. Metro Madison  City     Per cap    % bachelors     Share of wages from           income    degree or mor...
Traits of prosperous states    Top 10 Private           Big Metro         Big Metro College    expect Natural       (3 mil...
What about jobs?                   23
High education industries                                          growing in U.S.                                        ...
High education industries                                       doing best in Michigan                             0.00%Em...
Recession accelerates trends                                        Michigan and US Private Sector Employment, by industry...
Our conclusion:The places with the greatest concentration of talent win!                                27
Young talent isaggregating inurban regions  Younger college grads  Blue = With children  Red = Without children
What should be   Michigan’s new agenda?                 35
In the 20th century, the most valuable  assets to job creators were financial and  material capital.In a changing global e...
The purpose of the exercise: It is not simply to reduce the deficit, but to ensure prosperity. Solvency is vital, but it i...
In the long run, America will be richer than  China only by having smarter citizens, and  that requires the skills that co...
Our recommendations•   Align Michigan culture with the flat world realities•   Create places where talent wants to live•  ...
Bottom lineWe must get youngerand better educated         or we will get poorer                      40
For more information about MichiganFuture, our reports or what the media is  saying, please visit our Web site at:      ww...
www.michiganfuture.orgLent Upson Lecture in Public AdministrationMay 17, 2012                                             ...
 Lent Upson Lecture in Public Administration at Wayne State Universit
 Lent Upson Lecture in Public Administration at Wayne State Universit
 Lent Upson Lecture in Public Administration at Wayne State Universit
 Lent Upson Lecture in Public Administration at Wayne State Universit
 Lent Upson Lecture in Public Administration at Wayne State Universit
 Lent Upson Lecture in Public Administration at Wayne State Universit
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Lent Upson Lecture in Public Administration at Wayne State Universit

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Lou Glazer's May 17 presentation as part of his Lent Upson Lecture in Public Administration at Wayne State University, with new information on states leading in private sector per capita income."

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Lent Upson Lecture in Public Administration at Wayne State Universit

  1. 1. www.michiganfuture.orgLent Upson Lecture in Public AdministrationMay 17, 2012 1
  2. 2. Our goalA high prosperity Michigan 2
  3. 3. Making the case for A New Michigan 3
  4. 4. What state do we want to emulate? State Per capita Unemployment Poverty Education income rate attainmentOklahoma $35,389 6.2% 16.9 % 22.7 %Minnesota $42,798 6.4 % 11.6 % 31.5 %Michigan $34,714 10.3% 16.8 % 24.6%U.S. $39,937 8.9 % 15.3 % 27.9 % 4
  5. 5. Top 10 states in per capita income Connecticut Wyoming Massachusetts Virginia New Jersey Alaska Maryland New Hampshire New York North Dakota 5
  6. 6. Components of per capita income• Private employment earnings• Government employment earnings• Investment earnings• Government transfer payments 6
  7. 7. Top 10 states in private sector earnings (except natural resources) Massachusetts New Hampshire Connecticut Illinois New York Delaware New Jersey Colorado Minnesota California 7
  8. 8. Bottom 10 states in private sector earnings (except natural resources) Alabama Arkansas Oklahoma Idaho Kentucky New Mexico Montana West Virginia South Carolina Mississippi 8
  9. 9. Best states in private income Private, Non-Nat Resources Gov’t. Earnings & Top 10 Earnings Share of PI Transfers Share of PIMassachusetts $34,082 66.4% 25.8%Connecticut $33,460 61.7% 24.6%New York $31,510 64.8% 31.4%New Jersey $29,036 56.8% 26.3%Minnesota $26,823 62.7% 27.8%New Hampshire $26,347 60.3% 24.6%Illinois $26,081 62.0% 28.4%Delaware $25,979 64.8% 32.4%Colorado $25,322 59.9% 27.5%California $24,882 58.5% 29.4%United States $23,149 58.0 31.9%Michigan $19,817 57.1% 35.6% 9
  10. 10. Worst states in private income Private, Non-Nat Resources Gov’t. Earnings & Bottom 10 Earnings Share of PI Transfers Share of PIAlabama $17,121 51.10% 39.70%Oklahoma $17,078 48.30% 37.50%Kentucky $17,021 52.70% 41.40%South Carolina $16,756 51.60% 39.70%Montana $16,689 47.60% 36.70%Arkansas $16,636 50.70% 38.10%Idaho $16,553 51.90% 33.50%New Mexico $15,130 45.40% 42.40%West Virginia $14,545 45.40% 43.30%Mississippi $14,358 46.20% 43.00%Michigan $19,817 57.1% 35.6%United States $23,149 58.0% 31.9% 10
  11. 11. What state do we want to emulate? State Per Capita Private, Non-Nat U Poverty Education Income Resources rate attainment (total) EarningsIndiana $33,981 $20,064 9.0% 15.3 % 22.5 %Minnesota $42,798 $26,026 6.4 % 11.6 % 31.5 %Michigan $34,714 $19,545 10.3% 16.8 % 24.6%U.S. $39,937 $22,758 8.9 % 15.3 % 27.9 % 11
  12. 12. Traits of prosperous states• High proportion of wages from knowledge industries• High proportion of college grads• Big metro with higher per cap income than state• Largest city in that metro has high proportion of college grads 12
  13. 13. What is the knowledge economy? public goods 5% information leisure other administration 5% services 10% trade trans 3% utilities 7% financial activities health 11% 21% prof and business education services 21% 17% 13
  14. 14. Michigan’s income rank alignedwith our college attainment rank Per Cap Income % 4 year degree 10 15 18 20 34 25 36 30 39 35 2000 2010 40 14
  15. 15. 10 Most Prosperous Regions• San Jose/San Fran. • Seattle• Washington/Balt. • Houston• NY/Newark • San Diego• Hartford • Denver/Boulder• Boston/Worchester • Philadelphia 15
  16. 16. Major metros smarter Percent Education Attainment by Metro Population 33 30 23 24 25 26Under .2 m .2-.5 m .5-1 m 1-1.6 m 1.6-3 m 3m+ 16
  17. 17. Major metros richer Per capita income by metro population $45,167 $33,304 $35,304 $35,734 $37,470 $39,490Under .2 .2-.5 m m .5-1 m 1-1.6 m 1.6-3 m 3m+ 17
  18. 18. Big metros winning in private sector earningsCSAs and non-CSA MSAs Private Private Government Population employment employment revenue as earnings per earnings as share of PI capita share of PI3.0 million or more $28,768 64.2% 26.1%1.0 - 3.0 million $22,684 60.2% 31.7%500,000 - 1.0 million $19,577 54.9% 34.4%200,000 - 500,000 $18,800 52.9% 36.7%under 200,000 $17,203 51.2% 40.4% 18
  19. 19. Metro Detroit vs. Metro Minneapolis City Per cap Education Share of wages from income attainment knowledge industryMinneapolis 11 7 13 Detroit 41 39 31 2009 Rank among 55 metros 1 million population or more 19
  20. 20. Metro Grand Rapids vs. Metro Minneapolis City Per cap Education Share of wages from income attainment knowledge industryMinneapolis 11 7 13Grand Rapids 54 44 54 2009 Rank among 55 metros 1 million population or more 20
  21. 21. Metro Lansing vs. Metro Madison City Per cap % bachelors Share of wages from income degree or more knowledge industriesMadison $ 42,456 38.90 % 63.61 %Lansing $ 33,273 29.09 % 65.33 % 2009 data 21
  22. 22. Traits of prosperous states Top 10 Private Big Metro Big Metro College expect Natural (3 million or more) Attainment Resources Massachusetts Boston 37.5% Connecticut New York 35.6% New York New York 35.6% New Jersey New York/Philadelphia 35.6% / 31.3% Minnesota Minneapolis 36.2% New Hampshire Boston 37.5% Illinois Chicago 33.2% Delaware Philadelphia 31.3% Colorado Denver 38.5% California Los Angeles / San Jose / 27.8% / 41.4 / San Diego 34.6 th Michigan (36 ) Detroit 26.7 22
  23. 23. What about jobs? 23
  24. 24. High education industries growing in U.S. 5.83% 6.00%Employment change 2001-09 4.00% 2.00% $45,558 $59,926 0.00% -2.00% -0.79% All industry -4.00% Low education $33,383 -6.00% High education -5.79% (2009 average wage) 24
  25. 25. High education industries doing best in Michigan 0.00%Employment change 2001-09 $54,964 -5.00% -4.97% -10.00% $43,645 -15.00% All industry -15.66% Low education -20.00% $34,646 High education -22.59% -25.00% (2009 average wage) 25
  26. 26. Recession accelerates trends Michigan and US Private Sector Employment, by industry educational attainment, 12/07 to 03/12 105.0 100.0Index value (100 in Dec. 2007 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 MI priv more edu MI priv less educ US priv more edu US priv less educ 26
  27. 27. Our conclusion:The places with the greatest concentration of talent win! 27
  28. 28. Young talent isaggregating inurban regions Younger college grads Blue = With children Red = Without children
  29. 29. What should be Michigan’s new agenda? 35
  30. 30. In the 20th century, the most valuable assets to job creators were financial and material capital.In a changing global economy, that is no longer the case. Today, talent has surpassed other resources as the driver of economic growth. Governor Rick Snyder Special Message on Talent December 1, 2011 36
  31. 31. The purpose of the exercise: It is not simply to reduce the deficit, but to ensure prosperity. Solvency is vital, but it is not enough. Thomas Friedman Michael Mandelbaum That Used To Be Us 37
  32. 32. In the long run, America will be richer than China only by having smarter citizens, and that requires the skills that come from schools and cities, not dispersed factories. Edward Glaeser New Times Economix blog 38
  33. 33. Our recommendations• Align Michigan culture with the flat world realities• Create places where talent wants to live• Ensure success of vibrant higher ed system• Reinvent K-12 education to align with new realities• Develop new public and – more importantly – private sector leaders 39
  34. 34. Bottom lineWe must get youngerand better educated or we will get poorer 40
  35. 35. For more information about MichiganFuture, our reports or what the media is saying, please visit our Web site at: www.MichiganFuture.org 41
  36. 36. www.michiganfuture.orgLent Upson Lecture in Public AdministrationMay 17, 2012 42

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